Minnesota Vs. New Mexico - Rate Bowl - Media Predictions

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IceBoxGopher

IceBoxGopher

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Bowl season predictions, let's go.

ESPN sides with New Mexico, 24-20
When it comes to outsized coaching personalities, few bowl matchups will deliver better than Jason Eck (New Mexico) and P.J. Fleck (Minnesota). Eck, a former Wisconsin lineman who is familiar with Minnesota from his playing days, won Mountain West Coach of the Year honors in his debut season with New Mexico, which tied for first in the league and went 6-0 at home for the first time since 1934.

The Lobos haven't played in a bowl outside their home state since 2004, but will be well-represented in Phoenix. My lean is New Mexico, but Fleck is excellent in bowls, going 6-0 at Minnesota with a Rate Bowl victory in 2021. Tough call here, but I'm riding with the Lobos, who win their 10th game for the first time since 1982

Sporting News has New Mexico winning 28-26
P.J. Fleck wins bowl games. He's led the Gophers to six straight bowl victories, and he is 7-2 in the postseason as a head coach. Will New Mexico – led by Jason Eck – cap off a 10-win season here? The Lobos have allowed 113.4 rushing yards per game and closed the season on a six-game winning streak.

College Football News picks Minnesota, 34-16
This might be my favorite bowl matchup. Minnesota ALWAYS brings it in the bowl season under PJ Fleck, and New Mexico super-nasty with its defense and running game. The Big Ten team wins, but it’s a fight.

Sports Book Wire (USA Today) takes New Mexico, 26-22
New Mexico has won three of the six games it has played as an underdog this season.
 


NM has some decent wins, but they also lost to a terrible SJSU team. If the Gophers show up interested in beating the Lobos, they should win by two scores.
 




If we show up and play football ala Nebraska, the game will be fun to watch, and we should be able to give some reps to younger players who didn't see the field too much without burning eligibility.

If we look at the metrics, decide we should win, show up, and play to let them make mistakes, that let us win, aka play Fleckball (or Temu Tressel Ball if you prefer), the game will be slow, the score tight, and boring as hell to watch. Hopefully, we won't need heroics like Purdue or Michigan State to seal the deal, and we don't lose DT for the first game next year because he runs 35 times.
 


I wish the Gophers could have been in a more prestigious bowl. But Phoenix in December, with plenty of Gopher fans in residence, is a good place to play, assuming the playing field isn't a sloppy and dangerous mess, like the last time the Gophs played there. But, I really do like this match up. The Lobos are a very good squad, and with Eck as their coach, the game has some interesting Axe undercurrents. The Lobos will be bringing it, looking for their second win over a B1G team this year. I'll bet the Gophers bring it, too. PJ doesn't slough off in bowl games. This should be a real football game. Not just the joke exhibition that some bowls become after opt-outs, legions of transfers, etc.
 

Mountain West Connection (SB Nation) goes with New Mexico to win
Since their last loss at the hands of Boise State on October 11th, New Mexico ran off a six-game win streak that nearly clinched them a spot in the Mountain West title game, but the computer metrics had other plans. Despite that, Jason Eck and the Lobos have a chance to etch their names in the history books as a win would mark only the second time in program history that they achieved ten wins, the only other instance occurring in 1982.

Minnesota had a satisfactory season, but nothing to be over the moon about. They beat the teams that they should, while losing to the goliaths of the Big Ten. It feels like just yesterday that P.J. Fleck was hired away from Western Michigan after the Broncos made it to a New Year’s six bowl.

However, he is in his ninth year leading the Golden Gophers. The 2025 season was, in all honesty, a forgettable one. They never won more than two in a row, and never lost more than two in a row as they yo-yoed back and forth. But, interestingly enough, Minnesota has won every single bowl game it has participated in under Fleck.

Plain and simple, I think the Lobos are more hungry to end the season with a bang.

Nevada Sports Net picks New Mexico, 23-20
New Mexico plays in its first bowl game since 2016 with this being its first appearance in a non-New Mexico Bowl postseason game since 2004. The Lobos' nine wins were their most since 1982.

Minnesota remains a Steady-Eddie-but-nothing-special-Big-Ten school that has reached its seventh bowl game in nine seasons under coach P.J. Fleck, who is 6-0 in bowls with the Gophers. New Mexico went 2-2 against bowl teams this season with wins over UNLV and SDSU.

Minnesota went 1-5 against bowl teams with the lone win over Nebraska, 24-6. Fleck rarely loses bowls (he's 7-2), but New Mexico is a team of destiny.

Hero Sports is predicting a New Mexico victory.
For my Rate Bowl prediction, I project New Mexico will defeat Minnesota and therefore cover the 2.5-point spread. I also predict the game will go Over 47.5 total points.

Bleacher Report picks New Mexico, 24-23
 





I'm a little surprised by the number of New Mexico picks but not surprised to see most of them being very close games. This one definitely feels like a toss up and opt outs for both teams could prove to be the difference when it is all said and done.
 

I'm assuming there should be fewer Gopher opt outs compared to recent years considering there aren't many draft prospects on this year's team.
 




The picks so far have been very one sided, but I'm not too surprised. The MWC has been one of the stronger G5 leagues, New Mexico has been on a roll with a win streak, and Minnesota has been inconsistent this season. Neutral observers who haven't done deep dives are probably going to pick the Lobos based on that kind of simple overview.
 

College Football News “Experts”
Rate Bowl: Minnesota vs New Mexico

Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Consensus Line: Minnesota -2.5

Big Game Ben: Minnesota
E: Minnesota
Pete Fiutak: Minnesota
John Kennedy: Minnesota
Jackson Langendorf: Minnesota
Andrew Margolick: New Mexico
Jake Margolick: New Mexico
Doug Millen: Minnesota
Johnny Rosenstein: Minnesota
Joshua Schulman: Minnesota
Nick Shepkowski: Minnesota
Clucko the Chicken: New Mexico
CONSENSUS PICK: Minnesota
 

IceBoxGopher said:
The picks so far have been very one sided, but I'm not too surprised. The MWC has been one of the stronger G5 leagues, New Mexico has been on a roll with a win streak, and Minnesota has been inconsistent this season. Neutral observers who haven't done deep dives are probably going to pick the Lobos based on that kind of simple overview.
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Seems like the people picking New Mexico think it will be a close game where as people picking Minnesota think two plus scores.
 

The Deliberate Stranger said:
Seems like the people picking New Mexico think it will be a close game where as people picking Minnesota think two plus scores.
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With us being down to maybe 5 WRs if you count Koi, I have a real hard problem seeing how Minnesota could possibly win by 2+ scores. Our running game is bad this year, so we have to pass, but have no one to pass to. Seems like it could be a very predictable and easy offense to defend against. Then our defense has to try and stop New Mexico and that's not very good either. The only way is if they magically show up like versus Nebraska and Wisconsin.
 

MNGoph24 said:
With us being down to maybe 5 WRs if you count Koi, I have a real hard problem seeing how Minnesota could possibly win by 2+ scores. Our running game is bad this year, so we have to pass, but have no one to pass to. Seems like it could be a very predictable and easy offense to defend against. Then our defense has to try and stop New Mexico and that's not very good either. The only way is if they magically show up like versus Nebraska and Wisconsin.
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I believe this will happen. National television, chance to show what you're made of etc. PJ will have them ready.
 

Going to have to rely on Darius for points. Half the wide receivers room hit the portal along with backup RB. Will anyone be opting out? We are thin at skill Positions
 


MNGoph24 said:
With us being down to maybe 5 WRs if you count Koi, I have a real hard problem seeing how Minnesota could possibly win by 2+ scores. Our running game is bad this year, so we have to pass, but have no one to pass to. Seems like it could be a very predictable and easy offense to defend against. Then our defense has to try and stop New Mexico and that's not very good either. The only way is if they magically show up like versus Nebraska and Wisconsin.
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Maybe the Gophers should have opted out. At least by showing up the MN players can ask for autographs from the New Mexico starters.
 

MNGoph24 said:
With us being down to maybe 5 WRs if you count Koi, I have a real hard problem seeing how Minnesota could possibly win by 2+ scores. Our running game is bad this year, so we have to pass, but have no one to pass to. Seems like it could be a very predictable and easy offense to defend against. Then our defense has to try and stop New Mexico and that's not very good either. The only way is if they magically show up like versus Nebraska and Wisconsin.
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Even if Brockington opts out (don't believe he has officially said one way or another) we still have Tracy, Smith and Loya who have all seen significant action at WR. And would assume that Hayes could slide into a #4 or #5 role. We will be thin at WR but shouldn't be a massive issue in terms of running our normal offense.

I think it is safe to assume that Koi will see some extended run at WR in the bowl game. Bowl games are a great time for things like that.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Even if Brockington opts out (don't believe he has officially said one way or another) we still have Tracy, Smith and Loya who have all seen significant action at WR. And would assume that Hayes could slide into a #4 or #5 role. We will be thin at WR but shouldn't be a massive issue in terms of running our normal offense.

I think it is safe to assume that Koi will see some extended run at WR in the bowl game. Bowl games are a great time for things like that.
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WR Bradley Martino, true FR, might be ready by the bowl game, too? I think he was injured before or early in season.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
WR Bradley Martino, true FR, might be ready by the bowl game, too? I think he was injured before or early in season.
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Don't know if we ever heard what his injury was but entirely possible he could be ready by a bowl game.

Bottom line is that we are going to be thin at WR but it is just one game so should have enough options to get through the bowl game just fine.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Don't know if we ever heard what his injury was but entirely possible he could be ready by a bowl game.

Bottom line is that we are going to be thin at WR but it is just one game so should have enough options to get through the bowl game just fine.
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Can play more TE or have Darius lineup as a wr more.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Even if Brockington opts out (don't believe he has officially said one way or another) we still have Tracy, Smith and Loya who have all seen significant action at WR. And would assume that Hayes could slide into a #4 or #5 role. We will be thin at WR but shouldn't be a massive issue in terms of running our normal offense.

I think it is safe to assume that Koi will see some extended run at WR in the bowl game. Bowl games are a great time for things like that.
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Yeah, I don't see what the big deal is about the receivers who entered the portal. We had 233 receptions this season. The wide receivers who hit the portal combined for 8 of them. Fame had another 12.
 


Rock M Nation sides with Minnesota in the game.
Tough one to call. Minnesota isn’t very good, but their defense is. New Mexico isn’t very good and… well, nothing about them is. They’re just more mediocre overall than the Gophers. Still, I think this is the type of game you win if you’re a power conference team.

Sports Grid predicts a 27-21 New Mexico victory
Low-key, New Mexico is one of the most under-appreciated teams in college football. Whoever tunes into the Rate Bowl will be pleasantly surprised.
 

IceBoxGopher said:
Rock M Nation sides with Minnesota in the game.
Tough one to call. Minnesota isn’t very good, but their defense is. New Mexico isn’t very good and… well, nothing about them is. They’re just more mediocre overall than the Gophers. Still, I think this is the type of game you win if you’re a power conference team.

Sports Grid predicts a 27-21 New Mexico victory
Low-key, New Mexico is one of the most under-appreciated teams in college football. Whoever tunes into the Rate Bowl will be pleasantly surprised.
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Rock does know New Mexico is 9-3, played Michigan tough on the road, and beat UCLA on the road right? Seems like too many people are underestimating New Mexico or think they will just mail it in. Unlike other teams, they will come out in full force, and likely dominate.
 

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