Gophers' Selection Sunday "Magic Number" Is 21

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SelectionSunday

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I feel comfortable saying a 21-10 regular season record earns the Gophers "lock" status into March Madness, regardless of Big Ten Tournament results.

Our 2025-26 game buckets:

CUPCAKE CITY (go 7-0; finished 7-0) (bucket complete)
Nov. 3: Gardner-Webb (W 87-60)
Nov. 8: Alcorn State (W 95-50)
Nov. 15: Green Bay (W 72-65)
Nov. 18: Chicago State (W 66-54)
Dec. 14: Texas Southern (W 89-53)
Dec. 21: Campbell (W 78-50)
Dec. 29: Fairleigh Dickinson (W 60-43)

TAKE CARE OF B1G BARN BUSINESS (go 4-0)
Jan. 13: Wisconsin
Feb. 8: Maryland
Feb. 21: Rutgers
March 7: Northwestern

WINNABLE ROADKILL (go 3-1; currently 1-1)
Nov. 12: @ Mizzou (L 60-83)
Jan. 3: @ Northwestern (W 84-78)
Feb. 1: @ Penn State
Feb. 17: @ Oregon

50/50 BALLS (go 4-2; currently 0-3)
Nov. 22: vs. San Francisco (L 65-77)
Nov. 27: vs. Stanford (L 68-72)
Nov. 28: vs. Santa Clara (L 75-86)
Jan. 9: USC
Jan. 28: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 14: @ Washington

BIG BOY PANTS (go 3-7; currently 2-1)
Dec. 3: Indiana (W 73-64)
Dec. 10: @ Purdue (L 57-85)
Jan. 6: Iowa (W 70-67)
Jan. 17: @ Illinois
Jan. 20: @ Ohio State
Jan. 24: Nebraska
Feb. 4: Michigan State
Feb. 24: @ Michigan
Feb. 28: UCLA
March 4: @ Indiana
 
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Love this thread, thank you Hodger! That 50/50 bucket is where Medved will earn his stripes this season. And it's frontloaded on the schedule with 4/6 by the first few days in December.

This will be our guide for the Gophers all season!

Go Gophers!!
 


I'm curious why you grouped Washington into "Winnable Roadkill." They seem to have had a great recruiting year.
 

TwistingMyMelon said:
I'm curious why you grouped Washington into "Winnable Roadkill." They seem to have had a great recruiting year.
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. ... "buckets" loosely use Bart Torvik's preseason rankings as a guide, splitting the Big Ten opponents (+ Mizzou) into top half (Michigan, Purdue, Illinois, UCLA, Ohio State, Michigan State, Mizzou, USC, Oregon) and bottom half (Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, Washington, Northwestern, Rutgers, Penn State).
 





SelectionSunday said:
. ... "buckets" loosely use Bart Torvik's preseason rankings as a guide, splitting the Big Ten opponents (+ Mizzou) into top half (Michigan, Purdue, Illinois, UCLA, Ohio State, Michigan State, Mizzou, USC, Oregon) and bottom half (Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, Washington, Northwestern, Rutgers, Penn State).
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That division mostly makes sense to me but Washington seems to have had a really good recruiting class both in the portal and a couple of freshman who have contributed substantially in their two games (one an exhibition against UNLV). They have a freshman center from Germany who was on the all-star team and a silver medalist for the U19 FIBA World Cup. He averaged about 22 points and 12 rebounds in their two games so far. Their backup center is soph Lathan Sommerville (transfer from Rutgers) who is pretty darn good for a backup center. Desmond Claude (transfer and leading scorer for USC last season) hasn't even played yet for them.
 
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Washington was supposed to be good last year too, super tall/long if I remember correctly- but they were terrible, 4-16 in conf. Obviously, one of those wins was against us though lol
 

NYtoWItoMN said:
Washington was supposed to be good last year too, super tall/long if I remember correctly- but they were terrible, 4-16 in conf. Obviously, one of those wins was against us though lol
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Mostly a different team this season. Their highly paid center last season actually was a negative for more than a few games during the year.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I feel comfortable saying a 21-10 regular season record earns the Gophers "lock" status into March Madness, regardless of Big Ten Tournament results. My "buckets" loosely use Bart Torvik's preseason rankings as a guide, splitting the Big Ten opponents (+ Mizzou) into top half (Michigan, Purdue, Illinois, UCLA, Ohio State, Michigan State, Mizzou, USC, Oregon) and bottom half (Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, Washington, Northwestern, Rutgers, Penn State).

Our 2025-26 game buckets:

CUPCAKE CITY, NO SLIP-UPS ALLOWED (go 7-0; currently 1-0)
Nov. 3: Gardner-Webb (W 87-60)
Nov. 8: Alcorn State
Nov. 15: Green Bay
Nov. 18: Chicago State
Dec. 14: Texas Southern
Dec. 21: Campbell
Dec. 29: Fairleigh Dickinson

TAKE CARE OF B1G BUSINESS @ THE BARN (go 4-0)
Jan. 24: Nebraska
Feb. 8: Maryland
Feb. 21: Rutgers
March 7: Northwestern

WINNABLE ROADKILL (go 3-1)
Jan. 3: @ Northwestern
Feb. 1: @ Penn State
Feb. 14: @ Washington
March 4: @ Indiana

50/50 BALLS (go 4-2)
Nov. 22: vs. San Francisco
Nov. 27: vs. Stanford
Nov. 28: vs. Saint Louis or Santa Clara
Dec. 3: Indiana
Jan. 6: Iowa
Jan. 9: USC

BIG BOY PANTS/SIGNATURE WINS (go 3-7)
Nov. 12: @ Mizzou
Dec. 10: @ Purdue
Jan. 13: Wisconsin
Jan. 17: @ Illinois
Jan. 20: @ Ohio State
Jan. 28: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 4: Michigan State
Feb. 17: @ Oregon
Feb. 24: @ Michigan
Feb. 28: UCLA
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I hope you are right, as I made a similarly optimistic post #69 Aug. 12 in "What Should I Expect This Season". Torvik is all wrong about MN. Glad to see great minds think alike. ;)
 

TwistingMyMelon said:
That division mostly makes sense to me but Washington seems to have had a really good recruiting class both in the portal and a couple of freshman who have contributed substantially in their two games (one an exhibition against UNLV). They have a freshman center from Germany who was on the all-star team and a silver medalist for the U19 FIBA World Cup. He averaged about 22 points and 12 rebounds in their two games so far. Their backup center is soph Lathan Sommerville (transfer from Rutgers) who is pretty darn good for a backup center. Desmond Claude (transfer and leading scorer for USC last season) hasn't even played yet for them.
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I will look forward to your next nitpick sometime during the season!

You can take over this duty next season.
 



Given how much guessing goes into the preseason rankings, would you consider reclassifying some of these teams, say, at the end of the calendar year (or at some point where we have a more solid understanding of each team’s relative performance)? Or have you found there is less movement between categories from the preseason than you (I) might think?
 


formerlybis said:
Given how much guessing goes into the preseason rankings, would you consider reclassifying some of these teams, say, at the end of the calendar year (or at some point where we have a more solid understanding of each team’s relative performance)? Or have you found there is less movement between categories from the preseason than you (I) might think?
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No, I won’t.

When that time comes, feel free to start another thread with your new set of buckets.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I feel comfortable saying a 21-10 regular season record earns the Gophers "lock" status into March Madness, regardless of Big Ten Tournament results. My "buckets" loosely use Bart Torvik's preseason rankings as a guide, splitting the Big Ten opponents (+ Mizzou) into top half (Michigan, Purdue, Illinois, UCLA, Ohio State, Michigan State, Mizzou, USC, Oregon) and bottom half (Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, Washington, Northwestern, Rutgers, Penn State).

Our 2025-26 game buckets:

CUPCAKE CITY, NO SLIP-UPS ALLOWED (go 7-0; currently 1-0)
Nov. 3: Gardner-Webb (W 87-60)
Nov. 8: Alcorn State
Nov. 15: Green Bay
Nov. 18: Chicago State
Dec. 14: Texas Southern
Dec. 21: Campbell
Dec. 29: Fairleigh Dickinson

TAKE CARE OF B1G BUSINESS @ THE BARN (go 4-0)
Jan. 24: Nebraska
Feb. 8: Maryland
Feb. 21: Rutgers
March 7: Northwestern

WINNABLE ROADKILL (go 3-1)
Jan. 3: @ Northwestern
Feb. 1: @ Penn State
Feb. 14: @ Washington
March 4: @ Indiana

50/50 BALLS (go 4-2)
Nov. 22: vs. San Francisco
Nov. 27: vs. Stanford
Nov. 28: vs. Saint Louis or Santa Clara
Dec. 3: Indiana
Jan. 6: Iowa
Jan. 9: USC

BIG BOY PANTS/SIGNATURE WINS (go 3-7)
Nov. 12: @ Mizzou
Dec. 10: @ Purdue
Jan. 13: Wisconsin
Jan. 17: @ Illinois
Jan. 20: @ Ohio State
Jan. 28: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 4: Michigan State
Feb. 17: @ Oregon
Feb. 24: @ Michigan
Feb. 28: UCLA
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Best part of GH, other than the insane in-game commentary:)
 


WilliamsArenaGuy said:
The poster simply asked a legitimate question about your process. Nothing in that question was challenging or nitpicking.
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It’s all good. SS puts a lot of work in. He’s entitled to decline a suggestion that would create more to do (work that could also be accomplished by anyone, too).

I’ll also add that I believe it’s a new thing to use Torvik as the basis for this (might be wrong) - I’m a big fan of that site.
 

formerlybis said:
It’s all good. SS puts a lot of work in. He’s entitled to decline a suggestion that would create more to do (work that could also be accomplished by anyone, too).

I’ll also add that I believe it’s a new thing to use Torvik as the basis for this (might be wrong) - I’m a big fan of that site.
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Thank you.

You got the gist of my post (the work it entails), and I appreciate that. With the responsibilities I’ve taken on on the new forum, I’m less inclined to update the “magic number” thread midstream.

In all seriousness, I wouldn’t mind at all if someone took over the reins of this thread next season. My apologies for the curtness, chalk it up to my fuse being a little short today.
 
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SelectionSunday said:
Thank you.

You got the gist of my post (the work it entails), and I appreciate that. With the responsibilities I’ve taken on on the new forum, I’m less inclined to update the “magic number” thread midstream.

In all seriousness, I wouldn’t mind at all if someone took over the reins of that one next season. My apologies for the curtness, chalk it up to my fuse being a little short today.
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No one is asking you to change your groupings or methodology. I just thought that you and the foundational sources you mentioned may be underestimating Washington based on what I've seen of the team they've assembled. Is that kind of commentary not allowed on a sports message board?
 


TwistingMyMelon said:
No one is asking you to change your groupings or methodology. I just thought that you and the foundational sources you mentioned may be underestimating Washington based on what I've seen of the team they've assembled. Is that kind of commentary not allowed on a sports message board?
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It’s allowed but Washington just lost to Baylor so maybe Selection is estimating the Huskies accurately.
 

minnyrules11 said:
It’s allowed but Washington just lost to Baylor so maybe Selection is estimating the Huskies accurately.
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I saw that but they are missing two of their top transfers (Desmond Claude from USC and Jacob Ognacevic from Lipscomb) to injuries. Could we beat Baylor without Jalen Crocker Johnson and Chancey Willis?
 

TwistingMyMelon said:
I saw that but they are missing two of their top transfers (Desmond Claude from USC and Jacob Ognacevic from Lipscomb) to injuries. Could we beat Baylor without Jalen Crocker Johnson and Chancey Willis?
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Could we beat Baylor with them? That's the beauty of college hoops now, it's hard to get a read on these teams with all the roster movement. If you're able to return three or four starters in a given year and the major of your rotation it's such a huge advantage. Claude a nice player but I thought he killed the flow in USC offense when we played them last year, Muss didn't seem to upset to let him go.
 

The Deliberate Stranger said:
Could we beat Baylor with them? That's the beauty of college hoops now, it's hard to get a read on these teams with all the roster movement. If you're able to return three or four starters in a given year and the major of your rotation it's such a huge advantage. Claude a nice player but I thought he killed the flow in USC offense when we played them last year, Muss didn't seem to upset to let him go.
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Nice try. You managed to write an entire paragraph while saying nothing so let me answer my own question. No, I do not think we would beat Baylor without Jalen Crocker Johnson and Chancey Willis.
 



Gopher shellacked in second half, drop first game vs. a Big Boy Pants.

Up Next: Green Bay (Cupcake City)
 

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