Minnesota Vs. Michigan State 2025 - Media Predictions

It's bounce back week.

The Detroit Free Press picks Michigan State, 21-18
How about that Iowa walloped Minnesota, 41-3, on Saturday, intercepting Gophers quarterback Drake Lindsey three times and limiting the team to 133 total yards. MSU's defense is not Iowa's defense, but facing the Gophers should feel like a relief for MSU after taking on back-to-back ranked opponents.

The vibes around the MSU program may be rancid, but the effort doesn't seem to be lacking from the players. The Spartans find a way to sneak a win on the road and end the five-game misery, even if the game stays close the whole way.

Gophers on SI is predicting a 31-10 Minnesota win
The Gophers have routinely bounced back under P.J. Fleck following a loss like we saw against the Hawkeyes. Smith and the Spartans look like a team that could be checked out, and this is a game Minnesota needs to find a way to win.

I have not seen anything from Michigan State that would make me believe they can go on the road and win a Big Ten game against Minnesota. The Gophers have at least shown proof of concept with a recent win over No. 25 Nebraska, so I am expecting an improved effort and a comfortable win on Saturday afternoon.

Picks and Parlays sides with Minnesota, 24-17
The key battle will come at the line of scrimmage. Michigan State’s offensive line has allowed too much pressure lately, and that could spell trouble against a Minnesota defense led by Anthony Smith, who has seven sacks. The Spartans have struggled to establish rhythm early, and if Lindsey settles in, the Gophers’ offense should control time of possession and wear down Michigan State’s front seven.

Minnesota’s more complete roster and home-field advantage give it the edge here. Michigan State’s recent performances suggest another tough afternoon on the road. Expect the Gophers to dictate tempo behind a strong defensive showing and a balanced offensive plan.

The Daily Gopher (SB Nation) has Minnesota winning 27-17
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-3) return home with their tail between their legs but an opportunity to right the ship against the reeling Michigan State Spartans (3-5).

Minnesota has taken care of business at home this season, and I think they’ll come out ready to play after laying an egg in Iowa City a week ago.

Cappers Picks is going with Minnesota, 24-17
Given Minnesota’s strong home record and Michigan State’s struggles on the road, the Golden Gophers have the edge. Additionally, Minnesota’s defense ranks higher, which should help them control the game.

Bet MGM predicts a Minnesota victory
The winning team model predicts Minnesota will win this game with 53.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

OddShark forecasts a 18-16 Minnesota win
Minnesota will win, Michigan State will cover, and the total will go under.

College Football News picks Minnesota, 27-17
Michigan State is at the let-it-rip point of desperation. It’s not playing as poorly as Wisconsin, and it’s a better team than Purdue.

It’s way, way, WAY overdue to put together a good overall performance for a full 60 minutes, but Minnesota is too strong at home.

The Gopher lines won’t be as good as they were against Nebraska, but it’ll be a night-and-day different story than the nightmare at Iowa.

P.J. has shown the ability to bounce abck from some really bad defeats.

Last week was a REALLY bad defeat.

PicksWise sees Michigan State winning
While Michigan State has lost all 5 games by double digits, the Spartans have remained competitive, and they made those games interesting at times. Chiles has thrown for 1392 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. He has all the tools to compete with the Gophers defense.

The problem with Michigan State has been its consistency. Quarterback and offensive line play has shown glimpses of positivity, but they have not been able to compete for a full 60 minutes.

Against a team that works as slow as Minnesota, if Michigan State can attack the Gophers corners early, it may open up holes for its running backs later on. The game plan will be clear for Michigan State.

If the Spartans can limit the Gophers mediocre running game, they should be able to control time of possession and get their first conference win against a Gophers team that might not be as good as their record entails.

Scores and Stats take Minnesota, 27-17
Minnesota’s physical style and home-field advantage give it a clear edge, provided Lindsey avoids turnovers. Expect the Gophers to reestablish their run identity and capitalize on Michigan State’s defensive lapses late.

Bleacher Nation backs Minnesota
The Golden Gophers are listed as favorites in this one, with the spread sitting at 3.5 points. Our prediction for Minnesota vs. Michigan State is the Golden Gophers as the pick to win.

The Only Colors (Michigan State SB Nation) predicts a Minnesota win
While the Gophers are not the best team we are playing this year, we will be among the worst teams they play; their schedule also blessed them with fellow cellar dwellers Purdue and Wisconsin.

I think the schizophrenia they are dealing with between the home and away versions of their team will be a deciding factor in this one. They don’t lose at home and we don’t win on the road.

Just got to get through this weekend and then basketball officially begins.

At Spartans Wire (USA Today), writers are split on who wins
Andrew Brewster backs Michigan State, 24-20
Despite falling short, Michigan State showed some signs of life against Michigan. The coaching staff is coaching for their jobs. I think they finally break the losing streak this week.

Cory Linsner sides with Minnesota, 23-13
This game is going to be a tough nosed, hard fought football game where the Spartans are going to have to be mentally tough, while possessing the ability to run the football and playing good defense.

There is nothing that says the Spartans are going to be able to do that consistently. Golden Gophers out tough the Spartans coming off of a drubbing from Iowa, they will be ready to play.

Robert Bondy takes Michigan State, 23-20
Can Michigan State get up off the mat and finally pick up a Big Ten win? I think they do this week. Minnesota was exposed this past week against Iowa as an average Big Ten team and one that is beatable. The betting line also suggests that.

Even in losses the last two weeks, the Spartans have looked more competent and good enough to win this game so I'm going to call for the upset and Smith saving his job for at least another week.

this one really feels all over the map in terms of what could happen.

The Smith experience at MSU has been bad by really any metric you could come up with. they've lost 5 straight without any really being close and their defense has given up 30+ in 6/8 games.

To me, this is MNs game to try lose if they come out and play conservative. Think they will be highly likely to lay down and quit if you punch them in the mouth early as they lost their 2 "get up" games with the last one being demoralizing with Michigan running the ball for almost 300 yds and over 6 yds/carry excluding a snap that went over Underwood's head, and the one prior being Mendoza having somewhere approaching 3 years to throw the ball each snap and the resulting almost perfect passer rating. It's one of the rare times i'd want the ball first and I think a team that (hopefully) comes out super pissed off from getting embarrassed last week throttles a bad MSU team like they should

conversely, if we get turtle PJ, I can see it being the exact opposite where MSU gets up early from us playing passive, rushing 3, run, run pass on offense and then MSU having the confidence they can win. they haven't played a game in reach of winning in weeks but damn if i won't be surprised if PJ decides they'll get to hang around for awhile this week

Pioneer Press has Minnesota winning narrowly, 22-19
Minnesota Offense Vs. Michigan State Defense: Minnesota mustered a season-low 133 total yards against Iowa, but Michigan State has been allowing 380 per game, so the U should be able to move the ball and score. Edge: Minnesota

Minnesota Defense Vs. Michigan State Offense: The Spartans are 118th in the nation in sacks allowed (2.8 per game). Left tackle Conner Moore and Caleb Carter, who has played both guard spots, have given up at an average of three pressures apiece in Big Ten play. Edge: Minnesota

Special Teams: Both kickers, Brady Denaburg and Martin Connington are perfect inside 40 yards and less than 50% beyond that distance. Edge: Michigan State

Prediction: Before the season, Smith pegged Michigan State’s expectations “at minimum” of getting back to a bowl game. They would need to win three of four to eek into one — and it isn’t starting this week. Look for Minnesota to continue to win ugly.

Gophers on SI staff are out with their picks
Tony Liebert sides with Minnesota, 31-10
The Gophers have routinely bounced back under P.J. Fleck following a loss like we saw against the Hawkeyes. Smith and the Spartans look like a team that could be checked out, and this is a game Minnesota needs to find a way to win. I have not seen anything from Michigan State that would make me believe they can go on the road and win a Big Ten game against Minnesota.

The Gophers have at least shown proof of concept with a recent win over No. 25 Nebraska, so I am expecting an improved effort and a comfortable win on Saturday afternoon.

Joe Nelson predicts Minnesota will win, 30-16
If the Gophers can't run wild on Michigan State, they can't run wild on any opponent. The Spartans have allowed 200+ rushing yards three times during their five-game losing streak, and USC and Michigan nearly pushed the total to 300 yards.

Even if Darius Taylor doesn't play, this should be a breakout game for Fame Ijeboi. Even if Minnesota doesn't explode on the ground, Sparty is also vulnerable in the air, so it's a great get-right game for Drake Lindsey after his three-interception game at Iowa last week.

Will Ragatz sees Minnesota winning 34-24
The Gophers have been an entirely different team at home and on the road this season. At Huntington Bank Stadium, they’re a promising-looking group capable of putting up points in bunches and convincingly beating a ranked Nebraska team. On the road, they’re an utter mess that’s been outscored 110-20 in three games.

Fortunately for Minnesota fans, P.J. Fleck’s team is back in Minneapolis this weekend to take on a Michigan State team that hasn’t won a game since mid-September and has the worst scoring defense in the Big Ten. This is a perfect bounce-back spot for the Gophers, although a win won’t exactly tell us much about who they really are.

Jonathan Harrison forecasts a 28-20 Minnesota victory
The Gophers need a bounce-back performance in a massive way this weekend after forgetting to show up in Iowa. Drake Lindsey isn't facing a top 10 passing defense for the first time in a couple of weeks.

I expect we'll see a much better version of the young QB than the guy who threw three picks last week. However, this Gophers offense hasn't been impressive at all this season, and this could be a bit of a trap game against a Spartans team that is still looking for its first conference win.

Michigan State has had its obvious struggles, but they have put up points; its defense just hasn't been able to stop anybody this season. This is going to be closer than it needs to be, but Minnesota narrowly avoids a season-defining upset loss in this one.

Gopher Illustrated (247 Sports) has Minnesota winning 24-20
Minnesota needs to get off to a faster start on offense, where they have only three points on their six opening possessions against FBS teams. I believe in a bounce-back game for Drake Lindsey against a struggling Michigan State defense, while Minnesota finally gets its first strip-sack of the season on Aidan Chiles.

StatSalt predicts a Minnesota win
With Anthony Smith anchoring the pass rush and Koi Perich patrolling the secondary, Minnesota has the personnel to make life miserable for Aidan Chiles, who’s been under constant pressure all season. If the Gophers can force the Spartans into obvious passing downs, they’ll control the tempo and keep the game firmly in their hands.

The Gophers’ ground game has been inconsistent, but this is the kind of matchup where even modest production from Darius Taylor or Fame Ijeboi can tilt the field. Combine that with home-field advantage and a Michigan State team that hasn’t shown it can finish games, and Minnesota has the edge to win by more than a field goal.

Winners and Whiners picks Minnesota to win
Lindsey should bounce back from a horrible performance against a very good Iowa defense last week. The Spartans rank 87th against the pass, so he should be able to throw the ball in the 45-degree temperatures. Michigan State doesn't travel well as their defense is even worse on the road, allowing 253.3 yards per game in the air and 162.7 rushing yards per contest.

MSU has another bad team and they have a quarterback issue, so I expect the Gophers to force Sparty into a few turnovers.

Sports Chat Place backs Minnesota to win
Michigan State comes into this matchup after losing to their rival Michigan last week and they are 0-5 in Big Ten play. The Spartans have allowed 31+ points in each of their last five games and have lost by at least 11 points in their last three road games.

Minnesota was blown out by Iowa last week, but they have been very good at home, where they beat Nebraska 24-6 two weeks ago. I don’t love this Minnesota offense, but I will not trust the MSU defense at all.

Tony’s Picks forecasts a 24-20 Minnesota win
Both teams have issues — Michigan State can move the ball but struggles to finish drives; Minnesota’s defense is reliable, but their offense is inconsistent and banged up. The quarterback matchup favors Michigan State slightly in explosiveness, but the Gophers’ home dominance and defensive stability make them more trustworthy in this spot.

Spartans on SI has Minnesota winning 24-13
Defensive coordinator Joe Rossi, who used to coach at Minnesota, made the move from the booth to the field during the UM game, and that seemed to energize things a bit.

I think that momentum does carry over a bit for Michigan State's defense, but it will not be enough to get a victory.

Sports Gambler has Minnesota winning the game
The favorites should be able to triumph by a more comfortable margin.

I'd say if the Gophers lose this one stick a fork in the season more or less. IF they got to 6-6 its going to be the worst B10 bowl and about 200 fans will be there.

If they win then outlook is better - find a way to win against NW and Wisconsin and you're looking at another typical good, not great, PJ season.

gopherbadgerman said:

I'd say if the Gophers lose this one stick a fork in the season more or less. IF they got to 6-6 its going to be the worst B10 bowl and about 200 fans will be there.

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Agreed. This is a must win game. I will say at this point that maybe the "worst" Big Ten bowl is about their speed.

I'd say the Gophers have three things going for them for the rest of the season -

1) Michigan State has a terrible defense. Have given up an average of 38 points per game in conference games.

2) Wisconsin has a horrible offense. Have scored an average of 5.4 points per game in conference games. One caveat: Wisconsin has played about as brutal of a schedule as could have been designed (although, in their one breather, they did lose 10-27 to Maryland at home).

3) Both of those games are at home.

At this point I'd guess that they won't be favored at Northwestern and rightfully so. If they finally could be competitive against an elite team like Oregon (and on the road) that might change.

The Star Tribune predicts a 27-17 Minnesota victory
This feels like a prove-it game for the Gophers, who’ll try to enter their second bye week on a positive note. A win would put them at 6-3 overall and 4-2 in the Big Ten entering the closing stretch of games at Oregon, at Wrigley Field vs. Northwestern and at home vs. Wisconsin.

They’ve yet to win on the road, so beating the Spartans would remove “securing bowl eligibility’’ from their to-do list. That’s a minimum requirement for this season. A strong effort Saturday ensures they still can chase better goals.

Writers at the Detroit News have made their picks, all siding with Minnesota
Connor Earegood is taking Minnesota, 27-21
Is this going to be Jonathan Smith's last game coaching Michigan State? That's the $33.6 million question. After five straight losses in Big Ten play, Michigan State limps into Minneapolis trying to salvage a bowl game, needing three wins in its next four games. That will be tough against a Minnesota team plenty motivated by a shelling at Iowa, returning back home where it is 5-0 on the year.

But Joe Rossi's defense is playing better as of late, and he's making a homecoming to his old digs before joining Smith's staff in 2023. If Aidan Chiles plays well and the defense does a good enough job stopping Minnesota running back Darius Taylor (Walled Lake Western), then this could be a turning point. But there's a reason Michigan State needs one in the first place.

John Niyo backs Minnesota, 24-21
Both teams are coming off ugly rivalry losses last week, so we’ll see which team bounces back better. Minnesota got embarrassed at Iowa, but P.J. Fleck’s team is undefeated at home this fall and still has plenty to play for at 5-3 overall and 3-2 in Big Ten play.

The offense has been mostly a disaster for the Gophers, but the Spartans haven’t been much better lately and they won’t win again — at home or on the road — if Aidan Chiles plays the way he did against Michigan.

Maybe Joe Rossi’s sideline energy will keep this close against his former team, but MSU will need more than that.

Boby Wojnowski sees Minnesota winning 34-27
The Spartans have a little fight left in them, but it’s waning. They’ve lost five straight in the Big Ten, all by double digits, and the heat on Jonathan Smith keeps rising. The Gophers are tough at home (5-0) and certainly better than they looked in a 41-3 blasting at Iowa last week. It’s hard to find anything MSU does well, and quarterback Aidan Chiles is struggling to the point he could get benched.

The Spartans’ best hope might be the Joe Rossi homecoming. He was paid a lot to leave P.J. Fleck’s Minnesota staff to come to MSU as defensive coordinator, and if it’s ever to pay off, this could be the time. Alas, the Spartans allow 32.5 points per game, ranked 116th in the country. At 3-5, they harbor faint bowl hopes, but this could be the last stand.