Gophers / Iowa lines

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gopherbadgerman

gopherbadgerman

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Iowa a 9.5 prediction favorite and a 39 over under.

I’d be hitting MN and over all day long…
 






I wouldn’t bet on this game

I could honestly see either team winning by 15+
I would bet on a close game
 

If Fleck can avoid falling into the “field position hell” trap that Iowa sets up so well, we have a good chance to win. Screw the spread. If we can spy and contain Gronowski, we have a good chance to win. If we can avoid turnovers (Iowa’s primary source of protein), we have a good chance yo win. If our STs don’t shit the bed, we have a good chance to win. If our D plays the game it played against Nebraska, we have an excellent chance to win. Go Gophers!

We have an excellent chance to lose if PJ uses his normal strategy of playing conservatively for a close finish (even though that is normally a good road strategy). Why? Because for some psychological, emotional, perhaps paranormal reason, Iowa ALWAY wins games that come down to the wire. That’s who they are. Iowa is fearless and opportunistic in such situations, while most teams go cautious and tentative (not wanting to make a mistake). Best way to beat Iowa is to get ahead early and then strangle their limited offense. The Gophs should take shots downfield early in the game if we make it to the 50 yard line. Try to put up a two score lead. Don’t play Iowa’s close-score-to-the-end-of-the game strategy—it’s a trap. Play Indiana’s demolish your opponent early game.

Go Gophers.
 
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Early betting lines make no sense to me. Iowa is one dimensional, and the Gophers with Taylor back are multi-dimensional. Minnesota is also good in pass pro, and Iowa struggles to rush the passer. Seems like the Gophers should be favored on a neutral field, and perhaps a slight dog at Iowa, if that.

Also don't understand the computer rankings. The Massey Composite has Iowa at 32, and Minnesota at 44. 32 of the 45 rankings in Massey Composite rank Iowa above Minnesota. Not sure that makes sense. For example, Sagarin has Iowa at 22 and Minnesota at 46. Makes no sense.
 





BigTenGuy said:
Early betting lines make no sense to me. Iowa is one dimensional, and the Gophers with Taylor back are multi-dimensional. Minnesota is also good in pass pro, and Iowa struggles to rush the passer. Seems like the Gophers should be favored on a neutral field, and perhaps a slight dog at Iowa, if that.

Also don't understand the computer rankings. The Massey Composite has Iowa at 32, and Minnesota at 44. 32 of the 45 rankings in Massey Composite rank Iowa above Minnesota. Not sure that makes sense. For example, Sagarin has Iowa at 22 and Minnesota at 46. Makes no sense.
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Why? Because you want MN to be better? What metrics say MN should be ranked ahead of Iowa?
 

Gophergrandpa said:
The Gophs should take shots downfield early in the game if we make it to the 50 yard line. Try to put up a two score lead. Don’t play Iowa’s close-score-to-the-end-of-the game strategy—it’s a trap. Play Indiana’s demolish your opponent early game.

Go Gophers.
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You do realize the Indiana team you mentioned beat this same Iowa team 20-15 and needed to score 10 points in the 4th quarter to get the W.

Iowa's offense is mediocre and in theory it sounds great to say we should be ultra aggressive and try to build a big lead.....pretty sure every team would love to do that to Iowa and yet very few are able to pull it off because Iowa typically fields a very strong defense and this year seems to be no exception.

Key to beating Iowa is playing clean. Don't make mistakes because when you do they almost always capitalize on them.

As for the line.....MN/Iowa games at Iowa have been very close. Every team Fleck has taken in there has played a one score game. Chances are good we see that again this year so any line over 7 is probably too high.
 

Gopherchase said:
Friday was clearly to me a top five best effort during PJs time here. That said, we kind of played like shit the four games before so I’m not surprised.
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When you factor in how badly we were out-coached and executed at Cal, how we had nothing to offer as a defense at Ohio State, and how Purdue could easily have beaten us except for a few really stupid face mask penalties, the rankings make sense. The Gophers have had one great game—played only one complete game—all season: against Nebraska, over whom PJ holds a hex.

But a brick is not a wall. Was Nebraska a one off/lucky effort, or has this young Gopher team turned the corner, now playing to potential? I think the Gophs have to follow up with another win, ideally a convincing win, against Iowa (which holds a similar hex over the Gophs) before being taken seriously. The Gophs actually have the team to beat Iowa (unless we play Iowa even on O and D, leaving special teams to decide the match. 😳🥵). Beat Iowa and then start carping about where we are ranked.
 



Draftkings has Iowa -8.5 right now. Jumped on the MN cover along with:
Oregon -34.5 vs. Wisconsin
Alabama -13.5 @ SC
BYU +2.5 @ ISU
Vandy -3 vs. Missouri
NW +7.5 @ Neb (I wouldn’t be surprised if NW wins)
 

MNVCGUY said:
You do realize the Indiana team you mentioned beat this same Iowa team 20-15 and needed to score 10 points in the 4th quarter to get the W.

Iowa's offense is mediocre and in theory it sounds great to say we should be ultra aggressive and try to build a big lead.....pretty sure every team would love to do that to Iowa and yet very few are able to pull it off because Iowa typically fields a very strong defense and this year seems to be no exception.

Key to beating Iowa is playing clean. Don't make mistakes because when you do they almost always capitalize on them.

As for the line.....MN/Iowa games at Iowa have been very close. Every team Fleck has taken in there has played a one score game. Chances are good we see that again this year so any line over 7 is probably too high.
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I absolutely thought of that, and it gave me some pause. Iowa’s defense played great (as usual). But Indiana did stick to its aggressive strategy, winning the statistical battle (as the Gophers have done in some losses to Iowa). Kind of amazing that Indiana scored only 20 with its stats (including two interceptions). Iowa got to 15 because Indiana took a safety to get an unmolested kick near game’s end. I know PJ will play it close at Kinnick. But I still think that an early TD (or two) would sink this year’s Iowa team, since it’s offense is uni-dimensional and prone to interceptions. Hoping we attempt some downfield throws early once we approach mid-field, and get a break. Change the dynamic. Go Gophers!
 

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MGGopher said:
Draftkings has Iowa -8.5 right now. Jumped on the MN cover along with:
Oregon -34.5 vs. Wisconsin
Alabama -13.5 @ SC
BYU +2.5 @ ISU
Vandy -3 vs. Missouri
NW +7.5 @ Neb (I wouldn’t be surprised if NW wins)
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I think you might run a lot of money this coming weekend …
 


We have had an inconstant run game and a promising, but young QB.

Iowa's defense is often brutal ...

I get that line.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
If Fleck can avoid falling into the “field position hell” trap that Iowa sets up so well, we have a good chance to win. Screw the spread. If we can spy and contain Gronowski, we have a good chance to win. If we can avoid turnovers (Iowa’s primary source of protein), we have a good chance yo win. If our STs don’t shit the bed, we have a good chance to win. If our D plays the game it played against Nebraska, we have an excellent chance to win. Go Gophers!

We have an excellent chance to lose if PJ uses his normal strategy of playing conservatively for a close finish (even though that is normally a good road strategy). Why? Because for some psychological, emotional, perhaps paranormal reason, Iowa ALWAY wins games that come down to the wire. That’s who they are. Iowa is fearless and opportunistic in such situations, while most teams go cautious and tentative (not wanting to make a mistake). Best way to beat Iowa is to get ahead early and then strangle their limited offense. The Gophs should take shots downfield early in the game if we make it to the 50 yard line. Try to put up a two score lead. Don’t play Iowa’s close-score-to-the-end-of-the game strategy—it’s a trap. Play Indiana’s demolish your opponent early game.

Go Gophers.
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Agree but I have yet to see a PJF team do this against IO.
 

Gopherchase said:
Friday was clearly to me a top five best effort during PJs time here. That said, we kind of played like shit the four games before so I’m not surprised.
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Yes, the quantitative ratings include the whole season. You can't rate a team just based on their last game.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
Why? Because for some psychological, emotional, perhaps paranormal reason, Iowa ALWAY wins games that come down to the wire.
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Mostly true but we did win one of those types of games at Iowa two years ago. Unfortunately, it was close enough that the fair catch signal call made a difference. I thought it was the right call but you can't convince most of them of that.

Ironically, the only time the Gophers beat Iowa in the last 10 meetings was with one of the worst teams of Fleck's tenure. Similar to the Brewster/Kill transition years. Beat them two years in a row (2010, 2011) with two 3-9 teams.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
If Fleck can avoid falling into the “field position hell” trap that Iowa sets up so well, we have a good chance to win. Screw the spread. If we can spy and contain Gronowski, we have a good chance to win. If we can avoid turnovers (Iowa’s primary source of protein), we have a good chance yo win. If our STs don’t shit the bed, we have a good chance to win. If our D plays the game it played against Nebraska, we have an excellent chance to win. Go Gophers!

We have an excellent chance to lose if PJ uses his normal strategy of playing conservatively for a close finish (even though that is normally a good road strategy). Why? Because for some psychological, emotional, perhaps paranormal reason, Iowa ALWAY wins games that come down to the wire. That’s who they are. Iowa is fearless and opportunistic in such situations, while most teams go cautious and tentative (not wanting to make a mistake). Best way to beat Iowa is to get ahead early and then strangle their limited offense. The Gophs should take shots downfield early in the game if we make it to the 50 yard line. Try to put up a two score lead. Don’t play Iowa’s close-score-to-the-end-of-the game strategy—it’s a trap. Play Indiana’s demolish your opponent early game.

Go Gophers.
Click to expand...

Kirk Ferentz's record in 1 score games is actually not very good. Against Minnesota it is but against pretty much everyone else besides Nebraska, more often than not Iowa loses close games. Look not further than this season, 1-2 in 1 score games.
 

Gopherchase said:
Friday was clearly to me a top five best effort during PJs time here. That said, we kind of played like shit the four games before so I’m not surprised.
Click to expand...

Welcome to college football.

At no point after the Purdue game did our this defense would do anything the rest of the year yet here we are.
 

We are perfectly capable of beating Iowa playing their style, we did it two years ago, and came close like three other times, but our players made some mistakes. In the one win it was a costly player mistake on their side. Obviously getting out to a lead against their bad pass offense is a huge advantage, easier said than done though.
 

TwistingMyMelon said:
Mostly true but we did win one of those types of games at Iowa two years ago. Unfortunately, it was close enough that the fair catch signal call made a difference. I thought it was the right call but you can't convince most of them of that.

Ironically, the only time the Gophers beat Iowa in the last 10 meetings was with one of the worst teams of Fleck's tenure. Similar to the Brewster/Kill transition years. Beat them two years in a row (2010, 2011) with two 3-9 teams.
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Jeff Horton, undefeated against Iowa.

Props. Up there at least in my Top 10 most fun games at the Bank even though I stood on a sheet of ice for over 3 hours.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
When you factor in how badly we were out-coached and executed at Cal, how we had nothing to offer as a defense at Ohio State, and how Purdue could easily have beaten us except for a few really stupid face mask penalties, the rankings make sense. The Gophers have had one great game—played only one complete game—all season: against Nebraska, over whom PJ holds a hex.

But a brick is not a wall. Was Nebraska a one off/lucky effort, or has this young Gopher team turned the corner, now playing to potential? I think the Gophs have to follow up with another win, ideally a convincing win, against Iowa (which holds a similar hex over the Gophs) before being taken seriously. The Gophs actually have the team to beat Iowa (unless we play Iowa even on O and D, leaving special teams to decide the match. 😳🥵). Beat Iowa and then start carping about where we are ranked.
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Not a hex. He just believes he can beat Nebraska, and they believe it too.
 

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