Early line: Nebraska -5.5

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Bring back the Axe said:
9.5 ?? Lambs to the slaughter. The house will be gleefully raking all the chips in with an oar when the gophers cover.
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Except for the boatload of chips paid out to betters who took the Gophers and the points, you mean.
 


Simply put, if we keep playing like we have been, we will lose. I wouldn't put money on the Gophers. After several years, I think that morose Nebraska fan who streams post-game YouTube videos from his toilet may finally see a victory in Minnesota.
 

FredCoxRocks said:
Simply put, if we keep playing like we have been, we will lose. I wouldn't put money on the Gophers. After several years, I think that morose Nebraska fan who streams YouTube videos from his toilet may finally see a victory in Minnesota.
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Agree
They’re playing better than the gophers are
 

My hope always runs high. My official prediction for this game with Nebraska is a 14-34 loss. Based on what I have seen from both teams, this is what I would predict the score to be 10 times out of 10.

But we have seen Fleck circle the wagons and pluck a win from the jaws of defeat on a few occasions. In 2018, after the nightmare loss to Illinois and D coordinator firing that followed, I didn't see any way the Gophers could beat a decent Purdue squad the following week. Instead it was a really nice win on a cold day where it looked like the Gophers were playing downhill all afternoon.

I'm holding out hope for that kind of evening this Friday (but I certainly wouldn't bet on it).
 


Some guy said:
The line moving towards Nebraska indicates the money is more on Nebraska correct?
They move it to entice betters the other way compared to the early bets?
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Correct. So Gophers covering will result in payouts. As will Nebraska covering. Just different people collecting.

Very rare for a house to be "raking in all the chips." Or losing all the chips, for that matter.

Sports books try very hard not to be in the business of gambling. They want to make money by having zero exposure, and collecting half the vig.

One thing sports books don't like, however. Is lines that move a lot, like this one. That results in excess exposure where they could end up paying out on some bets to both sides.
 

USAF said:
Correct. So Gophers covering will result in payouts. As will Nebraska covering. Just different people collecting.

Very rare for a house to be "raking in all the chips." Or losing all the chips, for that matter.

Sports books try very hard not to be in the business of gambling. They want to make money by having zero exposure, and collecting half the vig.

One thing sports books don't like, however. Is lines that move a lot, like this one. That results in excess exposure where they could end up paying out on some bets to both sides.
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Correct
I may have MIs explained what I meant

I didn’t mean they were suckering husker fans into betting
I meant they forgot how big of suckers Nebraska fans were and balanced the line not taking that into account enough.


Nebraska may cover. But they certainly didn’t like all the money flowing to Nebraska -5.5
 


Schnauzer said:
My hope always runs high. My official prediction for this game with Nebraska is a 14-34 loss. Based on what I have seen from both teams, this is what I would predict the score to be 10 times out of 10.

But we have seen Fleck circle the wagons and pluck a win from the jaws of defeat on a few occasions. In 2018, after the nightmare loss to Illinois and D coordinator firing that followed, I didn't see any way the Gophers could beat a decent Purdue squad the following week. Instead it was a really nice win on a cold day where it looked like the Gophers were playing downhill all afternoon.

I'm holding out hope for that kind of evening this Friday (but I certainly wouldn't bet on it).
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I don't know why. Maybe it's my Gopher glasses, but I have a good feeling that our Gophers are going to show up and surprise many.
 



MaxyJR1 said:
FanDuel is +9.5 and 46.5. That's 28-17 roughly for Nebraska.

Of the B1G teams
Defense NE is #1 against the pass and 17th against the run.
Offense they gain about 110 more yds/game than the Gophers, but only 30 more yards rushing.
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As I said in an earlier post, it's our strength (passing) against their top strength, and our shocking weakness (run game) against their true weakness. If we somehow find a running game (OL gels?), we have an opening. Especially if Riaola gifts the Gophs a few interceptions and short fields. At the fulcrum point of the season, this has become a huge game for both teams.
 

maroonfive said:
Now -7.5.
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Got to -9.5 I suspect because of irrational exuberance by Nebraska betters who have seen the stats on the Goph's anemic, futile run game. Let this be the game that our rushing attack rises from the ashes like a phoenix (and Drake finally get to throw some passes where the defense doesn't know in advance that it is a pass). Go Gophers!
 


gopherbadgerman said:
Correct. They want even money on both sides
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The back and forth movement of this line shows that Vegas opened conservatively, with a spread of less than two FGs; Nebraska bettors, frothing at their mouths and wallets, quickly pushed the spread up to -9.5. This high spread brought out some realists to bet that the Gophers, though likely to lose, could keep the game closer than 10 points. Personally, I think the Gophers find their run game, Drake has a solid game, and the D bends but doesn’t break too often, and we win the turnover battle. Ski U Mah.
 



The way we have piss pounded Nebraska through the years I don’t care about Vegas’ line we are in their heads and I’m favoring us for a win. I don’t see them as having better talent than us let’s hope our coaches have had a good week and have a good evening Friday.
 

Gopherchase said:
The way we have piss pounded Nebraska through the years I don’t care about Vegas’ line we are in their heads and I’m favoring us for a win. I don’t see them as having better talent than us let’s hope our coaches have had a good week and have a good evening Friday.
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Their current coach wasn't there during that streak and quite a few of their players wouldn't have been either.

And it's not like we've "piss pounded" them recently. The last four victories were all by one score. Their last victory was a "piss pounding" (53-28 in 2018).
 

I just don't trust Nebraska. In our long losing streak to Wisconsin there were some very close games but we would always find a way to lose. That will happen to Nebraska on Friday night.
 

Gopherchase said:
The way we have piss pounded Nebraska through the years I don’t care about Vegas’ line we are in their heads and I’m favoring us for a win. I don’t see them as having better talent than us let’s hope our coaches have had a good week and have a good evening Friday.
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I agree, other than the QB none of their players are household names.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Raiola destroys lower level teams. Like Akron and HCU. He did it all last year also.

Gophers defense might suck though. So we’ll see.
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You are right. Raiola feasted on Akron and Houston Christian, running up his stats. If you compare Raiola’s and Drake’s numbers against P4 teams this year, they are a lot closer (because we held Drake out of the Northwestern State game; he was able to bloat his stats). Raiola has been sacked a lot by P4 teams; despite our OL woes, Drake has been kept pretty clean (quick release helps). Raiola has thrown 5 interceptions against P4 to Drake’s 1 (I think; need to double-check). If our run game comes back to life, Drake could out duel Raiola. Go Gophers.
 

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