What Should I Expect This Season?

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I'd love to say NCAA tourney, but their non-con schedule again looks bad. Doesn't mean they can't make it, they just have to get their wins in the B1G.
We should expect tourney or close to it, every season. This is a Big Ten program that has built in advantages over lots of other leagues/teams.
 

Go Gophs said:
We should expect tourney or close to it, every season. This is a Big Ten program that has built in advantages over lots of other leagues/teams.
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Making the NCAA tournament every year, or almost every year, isn't as easy as many seem to think even for a Big Ten team.

Here are the current Big Ten teams who have made at least 8 of the last 10 NCAA tournaments (not counting the cancelled 2020 postseason year):

Michigan State
Wisconsin
Purdue

It's a short list and doesn't include some teams that generally are regarded as perennial basketball powers (Michigan, UCLA, Maryland, Illinois). Indiana isn't on there either but I'm not sure they can be considered a perennial power anymore.
 

I can be just as wrong as the media experts/coaches are every year, so here is my summer dead time Big Ten preseason prediction in order/hope of conference finish. Barring injuries, etc, picking the 5th team was way more difficult than any other. The top 4 should be pretty solid. Most teams have a weakness to nitpick, and the next 10 are interchangeable middling teams. The bottom 4 will imo be weak by Big Ten standards. We'll see. Really hope Indiana stinks. (Could never stand them going way back. My order of least likeable teams historically--Ind, Wisc, Mich, Iowa, OSU, ILL, MSU, Pur, NWU. Apathetic about addn's later :)

Purdue
Michigan
Illinois
UCLA

Wisconsin
Mich. St.
Ohio St.
Maryland
Washington
Minnesota
Oregon
Iowa
USC
Indiana

Nebraska
Northwestern
Penn St.
Rutgers
 

SplitDecision said:
I can be just as wrong as the media experts/coaches are every year, so here is my summer dead time Big Ten preseason prediction in order/hope of conference finish. Barring injuries, etc, picking the 5th team was way more difficult than any other. The top 4 should be pretty solid. Most teams have a weakness to nitpick, and the next 10 are interchangeable middling teams. The bottom 4 will imo be weak by Big Ten standards. We'll see. Really hope Indiana stinks. (Could never stand them going way back. My order of least likeable teams historically--Ind, Wisc, Mich, Iowa, OSU, ILL, MSU, Pur, NWU. Apathetic about addn's later :)

Purdue
Michigan
Illinois
UCLA

Wisconsin
Mich. St.
Ohio St.
Maryland
Washington
Minnesota
Oregon
Iowa
USC
Indiana

Nebraska
Northwestern
Penn St.
Rutgers
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I think putting yourself out there is commendable, of course, so kudos for that. With all the roster turmoil for almost every team, the confidence interval is so much wider than it used to be.
 

SplitDecision said:
I can be just as wrong as the media experts/coaches are every year, so here is my summer dead time Big Ten preseason prediction in order/hope of conference finish. Barring injuries, etc, picking the 5th team was way more difficult than any other. The top 4 should be pretty solid. Most teams have a weakness to nitpick, and the next 10 are interchangeable middling teams. The bottom 4 will imo be weak by Big Ten standards. We'll see. Really hope Indiana stinks. (Could never stand them going way back. My order of least likeable teams historically--Ind, Wisc, Mich, Iowa, OSU, ILL, MSU, Pur, NWU. Apathetic about addn's later :)

Purdue
Michigan
Illinois
UCLA

Wisconsin
Mich. St.
Ohio St.
Maryland
Washington
Minnesota
Oregon
Iowa
USC
Indiana

Nebraska
Northwestern
Penn St.
Rutgers
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I'm fairly confident PSU and Rutgers will be in the cellar. PSU might have been able to avoid that had Niederhausen not stayed in the draft but they look pretty weak by conference standards now. I don't know what to think about Nebraska. They lost four of their top five players but they have big man Rienk Mast returning from injury and got a pretty decent big man transfer from Central Michigan so they could be better upfront than they were last year. Iowa transfer Pryce Sandfort (Payton's brother) could have a breakout year for them.
 


Go Gophs said:
I'd love to say NCAA tourney, but their non-con schedule again looks bad. Doesn't mean they can't make it, they just have to get their wins in the B1G.
We should expect tourney or close to it, every season. This is a Big Ten program that has built in advantages over lots of other leagues/teams.
Click to expand...
Sounds like the NCAA is going to moronically plow ahead with a 76 team field, so I guess a 9-11 B1G team will probably be a lock.
 

Non-conf schedule released, and here is what I expect. MN will win the expected games at home, AND have a nice semi-surprising win against a quality opponent going 10-1. After some good wins incl OT in Palm Desert, the Barn will be active for Big Ten play!

W Gardner-Webb H
W Alcorn St. H
L @Mizzou (1-2 poss. game)
W Green Bay H
W Chicago St. H
W San Francisco SD (3 poss.)
W Stanford PD (2 poss. game)
W St. Louis/Santa Clara PD (OT)
W Texas So. H
W Campbell H
W Fairleigh Dickinson H
 

SplitDecision said:
Non-conf schedule released, and here is what I expect. MN will win the expected games at home, AND have a nice semi-surprising win against a quality opponent going 10-1. After some good wins incl OT in Palm Desert, the Barn will be active for Big Ten play!

W Gardner-Webb H
W Alcorn St. H
L @Mizzou (1-2 poss. game)
W Green Bay H
W Chicago St. H
W San Francisco SD (3 poss.)
W Stanford PD (2 poss. game)
W St. Louis/Santa Clara PD (OT)
W Texas So. H
W Campbell H
W Fairleigh Dickinson H
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Would certainly take this outcome!
 

With a very successful non-conf. record of 9-1, I would expect the following from the Big Ten season. Granted, the schedule dates have not been announced but here are some reasonable upward expectations. Losses won't be blowouts because shooting, depth and defense will be present, MN remains competitively steady through various rotations. I expect Nehemiah Turner to develop fairly quickly into a Big Ten center.

Home games single meeting: Iowa/Maryland/Mich. St./Nebraska/Rutgers/UCLA/USC
MN goes 5-2 and the Barn has energy. Big home wins vs. Iowa, Pharrel Payne, Musselman. Likely home losses vs. MSU (OT)/UCLA (2-possessions) but who knows? Izzo compliments Niko in first season at MN.

Away games single meeting: Illinois/Michigan/Ohio St./Oregon/Penn St/Purdue/Washington
MN unfortunately goes 1-6 in tough road environs, likely beating OSU at home again in a non-mic'd up game.

Home/Away series: Indiana/Northwestern/Wisconsin
MN records 3-3 record with a big road win at Wisc., swaying the recruitment pendulum for years in MN favor.

Thus, MN gets 4 road wins, stuns experts and finishes very solidly in the middle of BigTen standings at 9-11.
 



TwistingMyMelon said:
Making the NCAA tournament every year, or almost every year, isn't as easy as many seem to think even for a Big Ten team.

Here are the current Big Ten teams who have made at least 8 of the last 10 NCAA tournaments (not counting the cancelled 2020 postseason year):

Michigan State
Wisconsin
Purdue

It's a short list and doesn't include some teams that generally are regarded as perennial basketball powers (Michigan, UCLA, Maryland, Illinois). Indiana isn't on there either but I'm not sure they can be considered a perennial power anymore.
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I don't think anyone expects any coach at the U to make the tournament 8 out of every 10 seasons. That coach would get a statue in Dinkytown. Hell, if a coach made the tournament every other season here, he'd be beloved.

That standard is quite attainable (for just an average program).

Below is a list of the Big 10 programs who have made the tournament 5+ times over the last 10 seasons (excluding COVID).
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Purdue
Ohio State
Indiana
Illinois
Maryland
Iowa
Michigan
(also UCLA, USC, and Oregon if you want to count them)

That's everyone except Minnesota, Nebraska, Rutgers, Penn State, and Northwestern.

I don't think it's unrealistic expectations to sniff not being putrid.
 

SplitDecision said:
With a very successful non-conf. record of 9-1, I would expect the following from the Big Ten season. Granted, the schedule dates have not been announced but here are some reasonable upward expectations. Losses won't be blowouts because shooting, depth and defense will be present, MN remains competitively steady through various rotations. I expect Nehemiah Turner to develop fairly quickly into a Big Ten center.

Home games single meeting: Iowa/Maryland/Mich. St./Nebraska/Rutgers/UCLA/USC
MN goes 5-2 and the Barn has energy. Big home wins vs. Iowa, Pharrel Payne, Musselman. Likely home losses vs. MSU (OT)/UCLA (2-possessions) but who knows? Izzo compliments Niko in first season at MN.

Away games single meeting: Illinois/Michigan/Ohio St./Oregon/Penn St/Purdue/Washington
MN unfortunately goes 1-6 in tough road environs, likely beating OSU at home again in a non-mic'd up game.

Home/Away series: Indiana/Northwestern/Wisconsin
MN records 3-3 record with a big road win at Wisc., swaying the recruitment pendulum for years in MN favor.

Thus, MN gets 4 road wins, stuns experts and finishes very solidly in the middle of BigTen standings at 9-11.
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Thanks, nicely done. What do you think if they go 10-10 in the B1G, so end up with 19 wins...are they on the tourney bubble?
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
I don't think anyone expects any coach at the U to make the tournament 8 out of every 10 seasons. That coach would get a statue in Dinkytown. Hell, if a coach made the tournament every other season here, he'd be beloved.

That standard is quite attainable (for just an average program).

Below is a list of the Big 10 programs who have made the tournament 5+ times over the last 10 seasons (excluding COVID).
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Purdue
Ohio State
Indiana
Illinois
Maryland
Iowa
Michigan
(also UCLA, USC, and Oregon if you want to count them)

That's everyone except Minnesota, Nebraska, Rutgers, Penn State, and Northwestern.

I don't think it's unrealistic expectations to sniff not being putrid.
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Tubby made it every other year, that certainly seems like a realistic standard given that we decided it wasn't enough and fired him for that level of performance.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Thanks, nicely done. What do you think if they go 10-10 in the B1G, so end up with 19 wins...are they on the tourney bubble?
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I hope I look back at this message board and find that I underestimated the teamwork and talent with this group. 10-10 is not out of the question because some teams will underperform, have key injuries, illnesses, and off-court distractions.
 



bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Tubby made it every other year, that certainly seems like a realistic standard given that we decided it wasn't enough and fired him for that level of performance.
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Tubby was fired because he looked, sounded and performed like a tired coach. He got to .500 twice in conference and got in at 8-10 that last year. His last three years were 20-34 in conference. His performance wasn't historically bad as we have seen since, but the trend line was down and he never succeeded again after here- failing at TT, Memphis and even High Point.

Time to turn the corner with Niko!
 

bga1 said:
Tubby was fired because he looked, sounded and performed like a tired coach. He got to .500 twice in conference and got in at 8-10 that last year. His last three years were 20-34 in conference. His performance wasn't historically bad as we have seen since, but the trend line was down and he never succeeded again after here- failing at TT, Memphis and even High Point.

Time to turn the corner with Niko!
Click to expand...
Tubby led Texas Tech back to the NCAA tournament and was subsequently hired by Memphis because of his success there. He also recruited a large portion of the team that was an NCAA finalist a few years later.
 

bga1 said:
Tubby was fired because he looked, sounded and performed like a tired coach. He got to .500 twice in conference and got in at 8-10 that last year. His last three years were 20-34 in conference. His performance wasn't historically bad as we have seen since, but the trend line was down and he never succeeded again after here- failing at TT, Memphis and even High Point.

Time to turn the corner with Niko!
Click to expand...
Tubby didn't fail at Texas Tech. He took them from a dumpster fire back to the NCAA tournament. His mistake was leaving for an impossible situation in Memphis.
 

howeda7 said:
Tubby didn't fail at Texas Tech. He took them from a dumpster fire back to the NCAA tournament. His mistake was leaving for an impossible situation in Memphis.
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18-36 in conference in 3 years there. His last year was 9-9 for a 7th place finish. That made it 9 straight years of never surpassing .500 in conference.

I am expecting better than that out of Niko. A lot better.
 

Go Gophs said:
I'd love to say NCAA tourney, but their non-con schedule again looks bad. Doesn't mean they can't make it, they just have to get their wins in the B1G.
We should expect tourney or close to it, every season. This is a Big Ten program that has built in advantages over lots of other leagues/teams.
Click to expand...
I am curious to hear what you think those "built in advantages" are.
 

FinnGopher said:
I am curious to hear what you think those "built in advantages" are.
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State of 5 million people with decent HS basketball and we are the only power D1 team in it.
There are plenty of disadvantages as well, but the above is a big deal or should be.
 


After seeing the Big Ten conference schedule, and most notably the opener at home against Indiana, I expect the Gophers to beat the Clown-Pants before a raucous crowd at the Barn. Indiana is my most despised Big Ten rival school, are old but less talented than previous years. It would be a great jump-starter to the Niko era. Let's say a win 77-73 identical to the Mbakwe/Cody Zeller MN win in 2013 over #1 Indiana. :)
 


SplitDecision said:
After seeing the Big Ten conference schedule, and most notably the opener at home against Indiana, I expect the Gophers to beat the Clown-Pants before a raucous crowd at the Barn. Indiana is my most despised Big Ten rival school, are old but less talented than previous years. It would be a great jump-starter to the Niko era. Let's say a win 77-73 identical to the Mbakwe/Cody Zeller MN win in 2013 over #1 Indiana. :)
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With Woodson's departure, along with Fran and Ben, all 18 teams have what I consider to be good coaches. Indiana could be counted on to be high-talent, but woefully coached. Not anymore. I guess we'll see - DeVries is certainly a step up, but he does need to prove it.
 




I am usually a supporter of Torvik analysis, but without any data on the season as of yet, the projections for MN (#84) to be 16th best team in BTN are waaaay off for the following reasons:

Nehemiah Turner is not even listed as a top 10 contributor on the team, despite being a monster on the defensive glass (21.4% rebounds). Despite his late development and scoring last season, he apparently has Zero value to MN according to Torvik.

Cade Tyson is being projected entirely based on his poor usage at NC. Only 2.4 PPG and playing 8% of minutes, and shooting .292 from 3PT range (based on less than 50 attempts at NC last year). He was used poorly at NC, but he should have more confidence in Niko at MN and his offensive numbers and playing time should jump. He looked slow defensively at NC, so hopefully that was addressed.

By Torvik metrics, Isaac Asuma is going to be our second leading scorer w/10.8 PPG behind Bobby Durkin (12.7PPG). This is so unlikely, and if Asuma is our second leading scorer, MN will in fact be in for a long season. Asuma is a distributor, with opportunistic scoring potential, not a score-first guard.

Torvik has MN projected to be a poor 3-PT shooting team, .337% dragged down by Tyson's lost year shooting .292, and Chancey Willis .284 on 116 attempts! Firstly, there is no way Willis will shoot that much at MN. He has a 38.5%! assist rate so he'll shoot less and pass more. Equally unlikely Tyson will shoot that poorly and his attempts will skyrocket up. The rest of the roster is 3-PT solid--Reynolds .425, Durkin .351, Crocker-Johnson .354, Asuma .357, Omot .353. Stephens is a shooter period. He also had a "lost year" shooting .250 with only 12 attempts due to injury.

MN will not only shoot 3's, but they could be a VERY good team from 2PFG. Let MN numbers speak for themselves:
Reynolds (.607), Durkin (.504), Willis (.498), Crocker-Johnson (.588), Vaihola (.510), Turner (.526), Asuma (.506). Omot (.526), Tyson (.625)--Team ave. .544! Will these numbers hold up in BTN competition, who knows? Torvik is way off with Minnesota.
 

While Niko has been a very good coach at many mid major places; only his 1 year at Drake was there a big improvement in record.

Furman won 9 games the year before, 11 wins his first year.
He did improve the wins in 1 year at Drake to 17, from 7.
CSU won 11 the year before Niko, they won 12 his first year, then 20, 20, 25 ncaa, 15, 25 ncaa, and 26 ncaa tourney trip.

Last year the gophers finished with 15 wins, 7-13 in B1G play, with a team of Sr's and 5th yr seniors.
As a betting man, I would guess most likely we will have 16-19 wins overall, 7-9 B1G wins. Remember he has only 1 player, JCJ who has played in his system. I am hoping for solid play but players all adjusting to high D1 ball, and trying to learn a new system. There will be some bumps along the way. I am excited for this first season, but I am more excited for the successive recruits and seasons.

Reasons to be optimistic: Lots of shooters, quickest guards in many years.
Reason to be pessimistic: If we play small ball with JCJ at the 5, 6-8 230, we will be very undersized. Most of the transfers are from mid-majors. Tyson struggled on his move up to UNC. Reynolds and Willis had green lights at their former stops, how will they adjust to playing in a system?
 

march madness said:
While Niko has been a very good coach at many mid major places; only his 1 year at Drake was there a big improvement in record.

Furman won 9 games the year before, 11 wins his first year.
He did improve the wins in 1 year at Drake to 17, from 7.
CSU won 11 the year before Niko, they won 12 his first year, then 20, 20, 25 ncaa, 15, 25 ncaa, and 26 ncaa tourney trip.

Last year the gophers finished with 15 wins, 7-13 in B1G play, with a team of Sr's and 5th yr seniors.
As a betting man, I would guess most likely we will have 16-19 wins overall, 7-9 B1G wins. Remember he has only 1 player, JCJ who has played in his system. I am hoping for solid play but players all adjusting to high D1 ball, and trying to learn a new system. There will be some bumps along the way. I am excited for this first season, but I am more excited for the successive recruits and seasons.

Reasons to be optimistic: Lots of shooters, quickest guards in many years.
Reason to be pessimistic: If we play small ball with JCJ at the 5, 6-8 230, we will be very undersized. Most of the transfers are from mid-majors. Tyson struggled on his move up to UNC. Reynolds and Willis had green lights at their former stops, how will they adjust to playing in a system?
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I think we will be better. I think we will be fun to watch. However, I think a lotta teams in the Big Ten who were good are going to be better.. Winning the opener is probably our best chance in the first handful of games...we will be underdogs a lot to start the season. Hopefully, we surprise people.
 

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