All Things 2025 Minnesota Twins In-Season Thread

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GophersInIowa said:
Pablo is on a very team friendly contract. Guys like Berrios and Musgrove are making more than him. I like keeping the staff in place. Buxton's is even more team friendly.

Correa definitely though. And the bullpen minus Duran and Jax. The rebuild has to be with the front office, coaching staff, owner and overall philosophy IMO.
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$22 million/year is team friendly but not outrageously so. He's still more expensive over the next 3 years than Ryan or Ober will be. I doubt they keep all three, so I'd trade Pablo from that group.

I'd keep Jax and trade Duran. Buxton won't bring much anyway and is about your only marketable player at times, so I'd keep him.

Trading Correa will be complicated. Only a few teams would take the contract and he has to waive a no trade clause. Probably better done in the off-season.
 


howeda7 said:
$22 million/year is team friendly but not outrageously so. He's still more expensive over the next 3 years than Ryan or Ober will be. I doubt they keep all three, so I'd trade Pablo from that group.

I'd keep Jax and trade Duran. Buxton won't bring much anyway and is about your only marketable player at times, so I'd keep him.

Trading Correa will be complicated. Only a few teams would take the contract and he has to waive a no trade clause. Probably better done in the off-season.
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Ober and Ryan are under team control through 2027. I don't see why they wouldn't want to keep those three around for an additional 2 seasons at well under $40 million total a year.
 





GophersInIowa said:
Ober and Ryan are under team control through 2027. I don't see why they wouldn't want to keep those three around for an additional 2 seasons at well under $40 million total a year.
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You gotta have some identity to your team, and that trinity ain’t too shabby.

Secondly, if they’re.500 going into June, I’d nof be sellers at the deadline and see if you can make the playoffs. Bade and France will be solid, as they have been so Buck is on track fit a 30/30 season and if Lewis could stay healthy for a the rest If the season, who knows??
 
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GophersInIowa said:
Ober and Ryan are under team control through 2027. I don't see why they wouldn't want to keep those three around for an additional 2 seasons at well under $40 million total a year.
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You certainly can keep all 3. Just not sure they will. Probably depends on whether they think they can trade Correa.

If they want to really reset and get some prospects, the most valuable assets are Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, Wallner, Jeffers, Lee and Lewis. Of that group, I'd be most willing to part with Lopez and Duran. Lewis too if he gets healthy and goes on a tear, but trading him now at lowest value wouldn't be good.
 

Just Gopher It!! said:
You gotta have some identity to your team, and that trinity ain’t too shabby.

Secondly, if they’re.500 going into June, I’d nof be sellers at the deadline and see if you can make the playoffs. Nader and France will be solid, as they have been so far, Bucknis on track fit a 30/30 season and if Lewus could stay healthy for a the rest If the season, who knows??
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I'm not sure we can rely on Nader or Bucknis. Or Lewus for that matter.
 



howeda7 said:
You certainly can keep all 3. Just not sure they will. Probably depends on whether they think they can trade Correa.

If they want to really reset and get some prospects, the most valuable assets are Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, Wallner, Jeffers, Lee and Lewis. Of that group, I'd be most willing to part with Lopez and Duran. Lewis too if he gets healthy and goes on a tear, but trading him now at lowest value wouldn't be good.
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I would love to be rid of Correa but I think at this point you would have to pick up so much of his salary thatI am not sure how much it would help. I guess to get AB’s for a younger player.
 

WoodburyTim said:
I would love to be rid of Correa but I think at this point you would have to pick up so much of his salary thatI am not sure how much it would help. I guess to get AB’s for a younger player.
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You might find someone to take his contract if you expect nothing back in return.
 









The Twins (15-20) have a run differential of +1 while Cleveland (20-14) is -23.

Colorado is on pace to go 29-133. The White Sox last year and now Colorado trying to beat them. Baseball has a problem.
 





GophersInIowa said:
The Twins (15-20) have a run differential of +1 while Cleveland (20-14) is -23.

Colorado is on pace to go 29-133. The White Sox last year and now Colorado trying to beat them. Baseball has a problem.
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I agree on the last part. As to the 1st part, run differential is worthless in baseball. Games get away from a team and the losing team rarely cares after diw by 8 or 10. By no means does it mean that the Twins are 24 runs better than the Indians.

Another example the Gopher baseball team list 29-1 to Kansas this year. But won 10-6 in their only other meeting. Can one take away that the Gophers are 24 runs worse than Kansas although they went 1-1 head to head?
 

WoodburyTim said:
I agree on the last part. As to the 1st part, run differential is worthless in baseball. Games get away from a team and the losing team rarely cares after diw by 8 or 10. By no means does it mean that the Twins are 24 runs better than the Indians.

Another example the Gopher baseball team list 29-1 to Kansas this year. But won 10-6 in their only other meeting. Can one take away that the Gophers are 24 runs worse than Kansas although they went 1-1 head to head?
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In a small sample size, run differential is meaningless. Over a large part of the season is not. Cleveland is on a 95 win pace. You're not going to win 95 games with a negative run differential. The Twins are on a 70 win pace with an even run differential. That is also very unlikely.
 

Happy 41st Anniversary to Kong, 1 day late.

PTI gave the Dave Kingman Ground Roof Double some run on their Happys segment before the Big Finish today. I found this Ch 5 clip for the 20th Anniversary.

 

howeda7 said:
In a small sample size, run differential is meaningless. Over a large part of the season is not. Cleveland is on a 95 win pace. You're not going to win 95 games with a negative run differential. The Twins are on a 70 win pace with an even run differential. That is also very unlikely.
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Run differential is barely important over 162. We have played 35. 1 or 2 odd results can throw off the differential even over 100 games.

I guess either way it doesn’t matter. They will decide the playoffs based on W/L.
 

WoodburyTim said:
Run differential is barely important over 162. We have played 35. 1 or 2 odd results can throw off the differential even over 100 games.

I guess either way it doesn’t matter. They will decide the playoffs based on W/L.
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35 is enough for a trend. Cleveland is getting pretty lucky and the Twins a bit unlucky. They will both end up between 80-85 wins IMO unless the Twins have a fire sale.
 

howeda7 said:
35 is enough for a trend. Cleveland is getting pretty lucky and the Twins a bit unlucky. They will both end up between 80-85 wins IMO unless the Twins have a fire sale.
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You are one of my favorite posters, but I gotta disagree here. My brief classes in social statistics taught me one little thing in between mind bending boredom. It takes ALOT to make a statistical trend.

In this case, if you throw out our 11-1 win over Cleveland, we are -9 and them -13. Statistics then dictate the observer to determine a reason why that one game out of 35 was that statistically important to alter the difference between a review of 34 of the games and 35 games. A 34 game review shows us to be roughly even, a 35 game review says there is a large disparity. Statistical theory says that is impossible.

All that being said, I agree with you that we are roughly the same team as Cleveland and likely to finish close in the standings. Just arriving at that conclusion for a different reason.
 

WoodburyTim said:
You are one of my favorite posters, but I gotta disagree here. My brief classes in social statistics taught me one little thing in between mind bending boredom. It takes ALOT to make a statistical trend.

In this case, if you throw out our 11-1 win over Cleveland, we are -9 and them -13. Statistics then dictate the observer to determine a reason why that one game out of 35 was that statistically important to alter the difference between a review of 34 of the games and 35 games. A 34 game review shows us to be roughly even, a 35 game review says there is a large disparity. Statistical theory says that is impossible.

All that being said, I agree with you that we are roughly the same team as Cleveland and likely to finish close in the standings. Just arriving at that conclusion for a different reason.
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Yeah pretty sure if I’m Cleveland I’m good with the 3-1 vs the twins while losing the run differential.

Cinci is 18-18 but +30 because they hung a 24-2 on Baltimore and a 14-3 on the rangers. Well now they’re a negative run differential without them. Extreme outliers skew a pretty meaningless stat less than a quarter of the way into the year
 


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