If Gophers Get to 5 Conference Wins, Making Big Ten Tournament Not Out of the Question?

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SelectionSunday

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By Buzz King (@Fieldof68Freak)

ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY -- A look back at the week in college basketball, as always starting with our weekly “Field of 68” projection. Projected automatic qualifiers (best conference record or – if a tie -- best NET ranking) in multiple-bid conferences are noted with a *

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through games played 1/19/25)
America East (1): Bryant (153)

American (1): Memphis (42)

ACC (5): *Duke (2), Louisville (29), Clemson (31), Pitt (33), North Carolina (38)

ASUN (1): Lipscomb (75) replaces Queens (196); ineligible for NCAA Tournament

Atlantic 10 (1): George Mason (82)

Big East (4): Marquette (18), *Saint John’s (25), UConn (32), Creighton (44)

Big Sky (1): Northern Colorado (131)

Big South (1): UNC-Asheville (205)

Big Ten (9): Illinois (8), Purdue (10), Michigan (12), *Michigan State (16), Wisconsin (21), Oregon (22), UCLA (34), Nebraska (49), Indiana (61)

Big XII (8): *Houston (3), Iowa State (6), Kansas (9), Arizona (14), Texas Tech (15), Baylor (28), West Virginia (30), UCF (72)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (43)

Coastal (1): William & Mary (174)

Conference USA (1): Middle Tennessee (97)

Horizon (1): Cleveland State (176)

Ivy (1): Yale (80)

MAAC (1): Quinnipiac (166)

MAC (1): Akron (112)

MEAC (1): Howard (302)

Missouri Valley (2): Drake (63), *Bradley (65)

Mountain West (3): Utah State (41), San Diego State (45), *New Mexico (59)

NEC (1): LIU (277)

OVC (1): Morehead State (252)

Patriot (1): Colgate (217)

SEC (12): *Auburn (1), Tennessee (4), Florida (5), Alabama (7), Kentucky (11), Ole Miss (13), Mississippi State (17), Texas A&M (20), Missouri (23), Georgia (26), Vanderbilt (37), Oklahoma (50)

SoCon (1): UNC-Greensboro (101)

Southland (1): McNeese (71)

SWAC (1): Southern U (207)

Summit (1): Omaha (218) replaces St. Thomas (104); ineligible for NCAA Tournament

Sun Belt (1): South Alabama (106)

WCC (2): Gonzaga (19), *Saint Mary’s (27)

WAC (1): Utah Valley (141)
--------------------------------------
Last 4 In: North Carolina (38), Indiana (61), Drake (63), UCF (72)

First 4 Out: Maryland (24), Ohio State (36), Cincinnati (39), Texas (40)

Last 4 Automatic Qualifiers: Omaha (218), Morehead State (252), LIU (277), Howard (302)

On the Radar O’Reilly (12): SMU (35), Penn State (47), Boise State (48), Northwestern (51), North Texas (52), Xavier (54), Iowa (55), VCU (56), Santa Clara (62), Florida State (66), Dayton (74), Wake Forest (77)

Non-Power 5 At-Large Bids (4): Gonzaga (19), Utah State (41), San Diego State (45), Drake (63)
-----------------------------------------
Heart of Bubblicious (NET #45-55)
#45 San Diego State (IN)
#46 BYU (OUT)
#47 Penn State (OUT)
#48 Boise State (OUT)
#49 Nebraska (IN)
#50 Oklahoma (IN)
#51 Northwestern (OUT)
#52 North Texas (OUT)
#53 Villanova (OUT)
#54 Xavier (OUT)
#55 Iowa (OUT)

Haslametrics Weighs In
Per Haslametrics.com, estimated score results for this week’s Minnesota & St. Thomas games:

Tuesday: Gophers @ Iowa (Hawkeyes 76.91, Gophers 69.57)
Thursday: Tommies @ Omaha (Tommies 77.23, Mavericks 74.63)
Saturday: Oregon @ Gophers (Ducks 70.2, Gophers 62.79)
Saturday: Tommies @ Kansas City (Tommies 73.68, ‘Roos 67.33)

Can the Gophers Make It to Weakling Wednesday?
I’m starting to think 5 wins might be enough for a Big Ten team(s) to sneak into the 15-team Big Ten Tournament and a spot in Weakling Wednesday (first round). If the Gophers can somehow get to 5 conference wins, I think they’ll have a shot, if a tiebreaker(s) goes their way.

Of the games left on their schedule I think the most important ones are Iowa, Washington, Penn State (x 2), USC, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Rutgers. And I won’t be surprised if Ohio State (who already beat the Gophers, sigh) fades big-time down the stretch. The Gophers will need some wins vs. that group (their most likely competition for a spot) in the event the #15 seed comes down to a head-to-head tiebreaker. Obviously, any other wins vs. the middle to upper tier would be welcomed (if not expected) to get that win total where it needs to be.

Opposite Side of the Bracket
I have not yet seen every Summit League team in person, including co-leader Omaha, but there is one thing I already know as someone who follows St. Thomas. When the Summit League Tournament starts March 5, I want North Dakota State and South Dakota State on the opposite side of the bracket. The Tommies, NDSU, and SDSU are the three teams most equipped to win 3 games in 4 days. The other side of the bracket means one (or both) will be gone by Championship Sunday.

Review This, Flagrant 1-2 That
Not joking, though I know this will never happen.

College basketball was much better off when referees simply refereed. Yes, they miss some calls, it’s called human nature. So sick of reviews, flagrant 1 this & flagrant 2 that, and players acting like they’ve been shot every time they’re touched (or not touched) in an attempt to bait officials into a march to the scorer’s table for another 10-minute review.

Let’s go back to the way it was; make the call, and let’s play ball. End-of-game stoppages are ruining a lot of really good college basketball games, and eventually will push even more people to run away from the sport. It's a disease.

Most Annoying Big Ten College Basketball Fan Base
Hands down, Illinois. Illini fans think they invented basketball. Have never won a national title despite having many, many uber-talented teams that choked in the NCAA Tournament. When I think of infamous early-round Big Ten chokes in the NCAA tourney, I think of the "ILL. ..... INI".

In fairness, one of my favorite (non-Gopher) teams of all-time is the 1989 Final Four Flying Illini team featuring Nick Anderson, Kenny Battle, Kendall Gill, Stephen Bardo, Marcus Liberty, and Lowell Hamilton. The best team I’ve ever seen that didn’t win it all.

The Local NETters
#104 St. Thomas (15-5, 5-0 Summit League)
#121 Minnesota (9-9, 1-6 Big Ten)

Big Ten +/- Power Rankings (Road Wins – Home Losses)
1 Purdue (+4)
2 Michigan State (+3)
3 Michigan (+3)
4 Illinois (+2)
5 Wisconsin (+1)
6 Indiana (+1)
7 Oregon (even)
8 UCLA (even)
9 Maryland (even) – no road wins
10 Iowa (even) – no road wins
11 Rutgers (-1)
12 USC (-1)
13 Nebraska (-1) – no road wins
14 Northwestern (-1) – no road wins
15 Ohio State (-2)
16 Penn State (-2) – no road wins
17 Minnesota (-3) – no road wins
18 Washington (-3) – no road wins

B1G Weakling Wednesday Dropouts – B1G Tournament no-shows?
** The 3 Big Ten teams tracking toward an early end to their 2024-25 season with no invitation to Indianapolis:
#16 Ohio State (2-5)
#17 Minnesota (1-6)
#18 Washington (1-6)

Gophers Week Ahead
Tuesday: @ #55 Iowa
Saturday: #22 Oregon

Gophers Stat Leaders
Dawson Garcia (19.1 points per game), Garcia (7.6 rebounds per game), Lu’Cye Patterson (3.7 assists per game), Femi Odukale (1.4 steals per game), Mike Mitchell Jr. (39.7% 3PFG), Parker Fox (1.4 blocks per game)

Gophers Non-Conference D1 Opponents (#344 non-conference SOS)
#52 North Texas (11-4)
#77 Wake Forest (14-4)
#80 Yale (8-6)
#160 Wichita State (10-7)
#176 Cleveland State (11-6)
#214 Central Michigan (4-9)
#218 Omaha (9-9)
#250 Bethune-Cookman (6-11)
#322 Fairleigh Dickinson (3-13)
#332 Oral Roberts (2-12)
#342 Morgan State (4-12)
Totals: (82-93, 46.9%)

Summit League +/- Power Rankings (Road Wins – Home Losses)
1 Omaha (+3)
2 St. Thomas (+2)
3 North Dakota State (+1)
4 South Dakota State (even) – no road wins
5 Kansas City (even) – no road wins
6 North Dakota (-1)
7 South Dakota (-1) – no road wins
8 Oral Roberts (-1) – no road wins
9 Denver (-3) – no road wins

Tommies Week Ahead
Thursday: @ #218 Omaha
Saturday: @ #233 Kansas City

Tommies Stat Leaders
Miles Barnstable (14.9 points per game), Kendall Blue (4.2 rebounds per game), Drake Dobbs (3.9 assists per game), Ryan Dufault (1 steals per game), Ben Oosterbaan (50% 3PFG), Nolan Minessale (1 blocks per game)

Tommies (D1) Non-Conference D1 Opponents (#278 non-conference SOS)
#64 Arizona State (10-7)
#109 Oklahoma State (10-7)
#127 Wofford (8-9)
#131 Northern Colorado (11-5)
#137 Milwaukee (11-7)
#165 UC-Riverside (9-8)
#213 Montana (8-8)
#215 Portland State (8-7)
#290 Bowling Green (5-10)
#291 Western Michigan (3-13)
#336 Green Bay (2-17)
#353 Chicago State (2-17)
Totals: (87-115, 43.1%)

NET Kings
#1 Auburn (17-1)

Kinda’ Bubble Cutline
#50 Oklahoma (14-4)

Stuck in the Middle with You
#182 Merrimack (9-9)

Bottom of the Barrel
#364 Mississippi Valley State (0-16)

Take 2 A Day (games to monitor this week)
Monday
Georgetown @ Villanova, 5 (FS1)
Rutgers @ Penn State, 5:30 CT (Peacock)

Tuesday
Mississippi State @ Tennessee, 6 (ESPN2)
North Carolina @ Wake Forest, 8 (ESPN)

Wednesday
Xavier @ Saint John’s, 6 (FS1)
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss, 8 (ESPN2)

Thursday
St. Thomas @ Omaha, 7:05
Maryland @ Illinois, 8 (FS1)

Friday
Villanova @ Marquette, 6 (FS1)
Michigan @ Purdue, 7 (FOX)

Saturday
Houston @ Kansas, 5:30 (ESPN)
Tennessee @ Auburn, 7:30 (ESPN)

Next Road to Selection Sunday/Field of 68: Sunday, January 26
 
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That is an impressive amount of information packed into one post :)

As for the prospects of making the Big Ten Tournament with 5 wins....it could happen. Currently there are 6 teams with 2 conference wins or less. So not impossible that we could scrape together enough wins to get ahead of 3 of those teams.

Unfortunately we lost our only matchup against one of the other 5 so far with the double OT loss to Ohio State. Next shot comes against Iowa tomorrow.

Sad state of affairs for the program that in year 4 we find ourselves just hoping to qualify for the Big Ten Tournament when we should be trying to figure out if can qualify for the NCAA tournament.

But it's where we are at so here's hoping this team can salvage something from this season and hopefully the new staff will be able to get things back on track starting next year.
 

MNVCGUY said:
That is an impressive amount of information packed into one post :)

As for the prospects of making the Big Ten Tournament with 5 wins....it could happen. Currently there are 6 teams with 2 conference wins or less. So not impossible that we could scrape together enough wins to get ahead of 3 of those teams.

Unfortunately we lost our only matchup against one of the other 5 so far with the double OT loss to Ohio State. Next shot comes against Iowa tomorrow.

Sad state of affairs for the program that in year 4 we find ourselves just hoping to qualify for the Big Ten Tournament when we should be trying to figure out if can qualify for the NCAA tournament.

But it's where we are at so here's hoping this team can salvage something from this season and hopefully the new staff will be able to get things back on track starting next year.
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Completely agree on all fronts. We've played better 3 out of the last 4 and if we can get to 5, 6 wins, we should be in weakling Wednesday. It's definitely achievable. This last win has me feeling more optimistic than most because of the fight they showed. Also having 3 players score 20+ points in one game does not happen around here very often. Let's goo
 

Catch 22 for me. On the one hand I enjoy and celebrate each and every Gopher victory. On the other hand, I believe that Ben Johnson HAS to be gone and soonest. He is not the future of this program. Every Gopher victory moves the needle towards Coyle making a horrible decision to keep Ben OMY.
 

Big Dawg said:
Catch 22 for me. On the one hand I enjoy and celebrate each and every Gopher victory. On the other hand, I believe that Ben Johnson HAS to be gone and soonest. He is not the future of this program. Every Gopher victory moves the needle towards Coyle making a horrible decision to keep Ben OMY.
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I understand your worry but hard to believe that Coyle keeps him with a 15th place finish. Ben’s resume has been litigated in the forums public opinion since day one. Regardless of perspective on the hire, hard to believe there is any support at all of keeping him now. And the game as it is now doesn’t fit his approach to program building. I’m not Coyle but if he chooses to keep him, he is clearly waiving the white flag and agreeing to be a permanent paid loser in the conference.
 


Big Dawg said:
Catch 22 for me. On the one hand I enjoy and celebrate each and every Gopher victory. On the other hand, I believe that Ben Johnson HAS to be gone and soonest. He is not the future of this program. Every Gopher victory moves the needle towards Coyle making a horrible decision to keep Ben OMY.
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That's a really silly concern to have.

Even if we can somehow scratch out 5-6 Big Ten wins, that won't be nearly good enough to consider giving Ben a 5th season.
 



Zeppelin Gopher said:
That's a really silly concern to have.

Even if we can somehow scratch out 5-6 Big Ten wins, that won't be nearly good enough to consider giving Ben a 5th season.
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I think most posters agree that it "shouldn't be" good enough to consider a 5th season. But do we really have any indication that it won't be? I share the concerns of others on this message board that we really don't know if there is any appetite to get rid of him from the people that matter in this case. I think an NIL deficit relative to other programs gives Johnson a longer leash, not the other way around. I'll guess we will find out.
 



golfing18now said:
I think most posters agree that it "shouldn't be" good enough to consider a 5th season. But do we really have any indication that it won't be? I share the concerns of others on this message board that we really don't know if there is any appetite to get rid of him from the people that matter in this case. I think an NIL deficit relative to other programs gives Johnson a longer leash, not the other way around. I'll guess we will find out.
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If 5-6 wins is enough to save Ben's job then there's no point of continuing to be a fan of this program, and the barn will remain empty in perpetuity.
 

Zeppelin Gopher said:
That's a really silly concern to have.

Even if we can somehow scratch out 5-6 Big Ten wins, that won't be nearly good enough to consider giving Ben a 5th season.
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Many Gopher sports fans are like Vikings fans: No matter how much things seem to be going our way, we are waiting for the other shoe (containing an anvil) to drop. The mindset of "we don't get nice things" is pervasive.
 

golfing18now said:
Who is the biggest conference surprise and biggest disappointment so far this B1G season in your eyes @SelectionSunday?
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That’s a tough question this season.

Biggest surprise is Wisconsin. I figured they’d be NCAA tournament good like usual, but the Badgers have been really good since their 0-2 conference start. They have quite a few guys than get you on a different night (Blackwell, Klesmit,, Tonje, Crowl, Winter). Strange seeing them be so offensively gifted.

Biggest disappointment has to be Indiana, though I wasn’t as high on them as most (never bought Hoosiers as conference favorites). Plenty of talent, but their guards are meh, Ballo got paid & is lazy, and as a whole they’re dysfunctional.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Review This, Flagrant 1-2 That
Not joking, though I know this will never happen.

College basketball was much better off when referees simply refereed. Yes, they miss some calls, it’s called human nature. So sick of reviews, flagrant 1 this & flagrant 2 that, and players acting like they’ve been shot every time they’re touched (or not touched) in an attempt to bait officials into a march to the scorer’s table for another 10-minute review.

Let’s go back to the way it was; make the call, and let’s play ball. End-of-game stoppages are ruining a lot of really good college basketball games, and eventually will push even more people to run away from the sport. It's a disease.
Click to expand...
On this front, I am conflicted. I don't think it was better before, at least on the out of bounds calls. I want the calls right. It just is so close on a lot of these that it takes longer and is more disruptive than anyone likes. I have to believe technology and AI could be brought to bear here.

On the flagrants, it is so inconsistently judged from crew to crew - do like the NBA and have a control center in Chicago or something.

And, you didn't comment on this, but I don't like how much defense has been outlawed - the offensive player can just bang his way in without fear of committing a foul (unless an arm gets extended).

1
SelectionSunday said:
Most Annoying Big Ten College Basketball Fan Base
Hands down, Illinois. Illini fans think they invented basketball. Have never won a national title despite having many, many uber-talented teams that choked in the NCAA Tournament. When I think of infamous early-round Big Ten chokes in the NCAA tourney, I think of the "ILL. ..... INI".

In fairness, one of my favorite (non-Gopher) teams of all-time is the 1989 Final Four Flying Illini team featuring Nick Anderson, Kenny Battle, Kendall Gill, Stephen Bardo, Marcus Liberty, and Lowell Hamilton. The best team I’ve ever seen that didn’t win it all.
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I know you're an MSU guy, so I'm sorry to say this, but the Izzone's constant drone is the most obnoxious fan thing in the whole conference to me. However, nothing will top the incident of Illinois' Orange Crush getting caught trying to get tickets to a game at Iowa by posing as a charity, though.
 



SelectionSunday said:
That’s a tough question this season.

Biggest surprise is Wisconsin. I figured they’d be NCAA tournament good like usual, but the Badgers have been really good since their 0-2 conference start. They have quite a few guys than get you on a different night (Blackwell, Klesmit,, Tonje, Crowl, Winter). Strange seeing them be so offensively gifted.

Biggest disappointment has to be Indiana, though I wasn’t as high on them as most (never bought Hoosiers as conference favorites). Plenty of talent, but their guards are meh, Ballo got paid & is lazy, and as a whole they’re dysfunctional.
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I agree with those choices but in fairness to Indiana, they've been playing without Reneau the last five games. He might be their best player. The numbers say Ballo is playing well (26.3 player efficiency rating overall with a 31.4 rating in conference; .213 Win Shares per 40 overall and .224 in conference). Their guards weren't anything special from the get-go.
 

golfing18now said:
I think most posters agree that it "shouldn't be" good enough to consider a 5th season. But do we really have any indication that it won't be? I share the concerns of others on this message board that we really don't know if there is any appetite to get rid of him from the people that matter in this case. I think an NIL deficit relative to other programs gives Johnson a longer leash, not the other way around. I'll guess we will find out.
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I guess nobody can be sure of anything but 6 conference wins would give him only 14-17 overall record. Perhaps that would get them into the Big Ten tournament but even if they won a game there, that would still result in a 15-18 record.

I guess it's possible that a coach with three overall losing seasons in 4 years could be given a 5th year. Hoiberg did it at Nebraska and his best season (#4) was only .500. I have a suspicion that the big payouts they were making to fired football coaches at the time factored into that retention decision and Hoiberg likely would have been more expensive to fire than Johnson. Johnson could be renewed but I think it's going to take more than that. To have a chance, I think he has to win at least 17 in the regular season which would include 9 conference wins. To do that, the team would have to go 8-5 for the remainder of the conference season.
 

Big Dawg said:
Catch 22 for me. On the one hand I enjoy and celebrate each and every Gopher victory. On the other hand, I believe that Ben Johnson HAS to be gone and soonest. He is not the future of this program. Every Gopher victory moves the needle towards Coyle making a horrible decision to keep Ben OMY.
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And I fear "making the B1G Tournament" will be Coyle's bar to shrug and do nothing.
 
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GopherWeatherGuy said:
This is just stupid
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It would be if the AD had given any indication that he gives a damn about the men's basketball team. But he hasn't so far. Can you honestly say there's zero chance he wouldn't cite "late season momentum" and the incoming recruits as an excuse to run it back?
 

howeda7 said:
It would be if the AD had given any indication that he gives a damn about the men's basketball team. But he hasn't so far.
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Coyle has been the B1G representative on the men's basketball committee for the last 4 years and has said repeatedly that he expects Gopher basketball to regularly be in the NCAA tournament.
 

howeda7 said:
It would be if the AD had given any indication that he gives a damn about the men's basketball team. But he hasn't so far. Can you honestly say there's zero chance he wouldn't cite "late season momentum" and the incoming recruits as an excuse to run it back?
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Still time to turn it around!
 

howeda7 said:
It would be if the AD had given any indication that he gives a damn about the men's basketball team. But he hasn't so far. Can you honestly say there's zero chance he wouldn't cite "late season momentum" and the incoming recruits as an excuse to run it back?
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Last year the late season momentum and look to the future worked as a justification for year 4. That won't be the case this year because the roster is going to turn over again so there is nothing to really hang your hat on and say we are going to be better next year right now because we have no clue what next year's team is going to even look like. Asuma is a solid piece but Betts hasn't done anything and the rest would be true or redshirt freshman with no college experience.

That is quite a bit different then where we were after last season ended when we had a roster full of players that could come back in 24-25.

And yes, Coyle has given plenty of indications he cares about the basketball program, to pretend he doesn't just because he hasn't fired Johnson yet is foolish.

The season was NCAA tournament or bust and nothing has changed that.
 

I'm in the camp that the Gophers should find a new coach. I actually thought that after year 2.

I'm - concerned isn't the right word, maybe anticipating - that the revenue-sharing thing that's kicking in could be used as a counterpoint justification for one more shot. Especially if they make the B10 tourney.
 

formerlybis said:
I'm in the camp that the Gophers should find a new coach. I actually thought that after year 2.

I'm - concerned isn't the right word, maybe anticipating - that the revenue-sharing thing that's kicking in could be used as a counterpoint justification for one more shot. Especially if they make the B10 tourney.
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Assuming/expecting the worst is the Minnesota Sports fans way.

Just barely making the Big Ten tourney with a roster of guys who will be gone next year won't be enough.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Coyle has been the B1G representative on the men's basketball committee for the last 4 years and has said repeatedly that he expects Gopher basketball to regularly be in the NCAA tournament.
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Big deal. Words and actions.

You get few words and even less action from coyle.
 


golfing18now said:
I think most posters agree that it "shouldn't be" good enough to consider a 5th season. But do we really have any indication that it won't be? I share the concerns of others on this message board that we really don't know if there is any appetite to get rid of him from the people that matter in this case. I think an NIL deficit relative to other programs gives Johnson a longer leash, not the other way around. I'll guess we will find out.
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What could they be doing right now that would somehow show they have an appetite to fire him? They aren't going to say it publicly and if they are searching for a coach they aren't going to let that be public knowledge either.

The only thing that could satisfy the paranoia is if they fire him, which they aren't doing yet. The whole thing is rather unreasonable.
 


Big Dawg said:
Catch 22 for me. On the one hand I enjoy and celebrate each and every Gopher victory. On the other hand, I believe that Ben Johnson HAS to be gone and soonest. He is not the future of this program. Every Gopher victory moves the needle towards Coyle making a horrible decision to keep Ben OMY.
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He’d have to win at least 10 b10 games to have that be considered IMO
 

Dave H said:
What could they be doing right now that would somehow show they have an appetite to fire him? They aren't going to say it publicly and if they are searching for a coach they aren't going to let that be public knowledge either.

The only thing that could satisfy the paranoia is if they fire him, which they aren't doing yet. The whole thing is rather unreasonable.
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Exactly. It is funny to see the paranoid scenarios some are drawing up since the Michigan win. We are still a long way from the point where the team's play on the court could shift things to a point where Johnson might be retained after this season.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Exactly. It is funny to see the paranoid scenarios some are drawing up since the Michigan win. We are still a long way from the point where the team's play on the court could shift things to a point where Johnson might be retained after this season.
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Sad. Some people don’t want Ben to succeed.
 

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