All Things Weakling Wednesday

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skiumah1 said:
Looking most likely we'll be in the 8/9 game which tips off at 11 AM on Thursday. Brutal time. Hoping we can find our way to that 7th spot.

And most likely playing PSU again in that 8/9 game unless they lose to Maryland at home to close the year.
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Don't we have an opportunity to pass Iowa and Northwestern or Michigan State if we win out?

- Iowa loses to Illinois in the final game and finishes 10-10

- if Michigan State loses to Northwestern, best possible record is 10-10 OR if Northwestern loses to Michigan State and us, we have h2h tiebreaker at 11-9.

Seems like some fairly realistic scenarios to get into the 6 or 7 seed, but obviously we have to win out first.
 

WriterGoph said:
Don't we have an opportunity to pass Iowa and Northwestern or Michigan State if we win out?

- Iowa loses to Illinois in the final game and finishes 10-10

- if Michigan State loses to Northwestern, best possible record is 10-10 OR if Northwestern loses to Michigan State and us, we have h2h tiebreaker at 11-9.

Seems like some fairly realistic scenarios to get into the 6 or 7 seed, but obviously we have to win out first.
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There is such a jumble of teams I am sure it will come down to tie breakers to sort out the seeding. No clue how we will fare in that regard.

1 more win would seem to ensure no worse than the 8 seed with room to move up from there. Getting a double bye seems unlikely but crazier things have happened.
 

WriterGoph said:
Don't we have an opportunity to pass Iowa and Northwestern or Michigan State if we win out?

- Iowa loses to Illinois in the final game and finishes 10-10

- if Michigan State loses to Northwestern, best possible record is 10-10 OR if Northwestern loses to Michigan State and us, we have h2h tiebreaker at 11-9.

Seems like some fairly realistic scenarios to get into the 6 or 7 seed, but obviously we have to win out first.
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MNVCGUY said:
There is such a jumble of teams I am sure it will come down to tie breakers to sort out the seeding. No clue how we will fare in that regard.

1 more win would seem to ensure no worse than the 8 seed with room to move up from there. Getting a double bye seems unlikely but crazier things have happened.
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Yes, definitely a chance to get to the 7th spot. Sounds like NW is battling injuries so that will be a more winnable game than originally thought. Iowa is playing so well right now but could lose to Illini for sure. Likely a pick 'em game. Sparty has NW at home and road to IU, could lose the latter.

I don't believe we sit too well in the tiebreaker scenario with Mich St and Iowa.

If we win out, we'd also likely pass NW. And long shot to pass WI and/or NEB.

I jumped the gun as there could still be a lot of shuffling. However, if we don't win out, very likely the 8th seed.
 
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skiumah1 said:
Fun website here to play around with seeding for the BTT:

mred's Big 10 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker

Big 10 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers
bball.notnothing.net
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I'd figured we most likely end up with the 7 or 8 seed, with 8 seeming more likely. If the favorites all win for these last few games (we beat Indiana at home and lose to Northwestern on the road) that's what we'd get. But changing just the outcome of Minnesota at Northwestern to a Minnesota win bumps us all the way up to the 5 seed. We get a 4-way tie with Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Northwestern at 11-9 (how funny would it be to be tied with Wisconsin after how this season started for both teams?) and a potential 2-0 record against Northwestern sets us up very well for any 3 or 4 way tie with Northwestern and Michigan State, as MSU already has a loss to Northwestern. This scenario gives you Wisconsin at 4, Minnesota at 5, Michigan State at 6, Northwestern at 7, meaning if we won our first game against the winner of Indiana/Rutgers, we'd get Wisconsin in the next round, which would be fun, and winnable. Getting the 5 seed requires Illinois beating Iowa in Iowa City, but we still get the 6 seed even if they don't.

The 5 or 6 seed seem well within reach if we can win our last two games, so @Northwestern is a big one. And from the 5 or 6 seed, you've got a pretty reasonable path to the Big Ten semifinal, with one of Ohio State/Maryland/Penn State/Indiana/Rutgers/Michigan in the first game, and then either Wisconsin or Nebraska in the second game, before likely facing Illinois or Purdue.
 




If we do get stuck in that 8/9 game, that would be brutal as it's going to take more from our home-court advantage than a later start.

Would love to get in that 8 PM slot. That would be the 6 seed which is a possibility. I might head down to the game if that's the case.
 





skiumah1 said:
Fun website here to play around with seeding for the BTT:

mred's Big 10 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker

Big 10 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers
bball.notnothing.net
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Thanks for sharing. Really shows how important finding a way to win out could be in regards to tournament seeding as it looks like winning both puts us in a much better position matchup wise. Getting that 5 or 6 seed pushes a potential matchup with Purdue or Illinois to the semifinals as opposed to the quarterfinals.
 

skiumah1 said:
Would love to get in that 8 PM slot. That would be the 6 seed which is a possibility. I might head down to the game if that's the case.
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I think I like the 5th seed possibility as described by Cayman above. That would give us a first game against a Wednesday winner and, assuming a win in that one, a likely rematch against Wisconsin.
 




skiumah1 said:
WI would be a lot of fun. We'd beat them.
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If we play well I like our chances against everyone with the exception of Purdue and Illinois straightup. Illinois is a tough matchup with their guards and obviously Purdue is problematic with Edey. That said, we played well against both in their buildings so if we can get a pseudo home court advantage with the games at Target Center anything is possible.

Big Ten teams have been dominant at home but majority have struggled or been far more human away from home. Illinois and Purdue will be the favorites but wouldn't be shocked to see someone else win it......why not us?
 


indygopher said:
If Rutgers beats Wisconsin and Michigan beats Nebraska and we win our games - Gophers are the 3 seed!
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If the gophers win out, they would need Wisconsin to lose both, Michigan st would need to beat northwestern and lose to Indiana then Illinois has to beat Iowa. That would give the gophers the 4 seed and I believe that’s the best they can do.
indygopher said:
If Rutgers beats Wisconsin and Michigan beats Nebraska and we win our games - Gophers are the 3 seed!
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Rocksoldier said:
If the gophers win out, they would need Wisconsin to lose both, Michigan st would need to beat northwestern and lose to Indiana then Illinois has to beat Iowa. That would give the gophers the 4 seed and I believe that’s the best they can do.
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I should have said, based on the app someone linked to, which had the higher NET ranked teams winning each game. If you changed the Rutgers-Wisc game to a Rutgers win and the Michigan-Nebraska game to a Michigan win and recalculated, then the Gophers were the 3-seed based on round robin record between the tied teams.
 

indygopher said:
I should have said, based on the app someone linked to, which had the higher NET ranked teams winning each game. If you changed the Rutgers-Wisc game to a Rutgers win and the Michigan-Nebraska game to a Michigan win and recalculated, then the Gophers were the 3-seed based on round robin record between the tied teams.
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That’s a very tall order, but it would be awesome to have a double bye for the first time since this tournament began
 

Rocksoldier said:
That’s a very tall order, but it would be awesome to have a double bye for the first time since this tournament began
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Actually the Gophers did have a Double Bye once following the 2016-17 Season. They finished 4th outright for the BTT that was held in Washington, DC.

They beat Mich St in the Quarter Finals, lost to Michigan in the Semi-Finals who went on to cut down the nets.
 

Ope3 said:
Actually the Gophers did have a Double Bye once following the 2016-17 Season. They finished 4th outright for the BTT that was held in Washington, DC.

They beat Mich St in the Quarter Finals, lost to Michigan in the Semi-Finals who went on to cut down the nets.
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Wow that escaped me, I should’ve remembered that I do remember the tournament, springs got hurt against Michigan and we were shorthanded against middle Tennessee State
 

Rocksoldier said:
Wow that escaped me, I should’ve remembered that I do remember the tournament, springs got hurt against Michigan and we were shorthanded against middle Tennessee State
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Springs was hurt against Michigan State in the quarterfinal but it was late in the game and the Gophers had enough to finish. Pitino tempted fate that season by playing with only three guards (there was a 4th on the team but he wasn't very good and Pitino didn't play him). It worked for the entire regular season but once Springs was hurt, you knew they were in trouble.
 

TwistingMyMelon said:
Springs was hurt against Michigan State in the quarterfinal but it was late in the game and the Gophers had enough to finish. Pitino tempted fate that season by playing with only three guards (there was a 4th on the team but he wasn't very good and Pitino didn't play him). It worked for the entire regular season but once Springs was hurt, you knew they were in trouble.
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And didn't it later come out that Mason was battling a hip injury in the Middle Tennessee State game?

Springs was our best defensive guard and provided a ton of leadership. It was just a brutal injury to put a cap on such a special season.
 

topos said:
And didn't it later come out that Mason was battling a hip injury in the Middle Tennessee State game?

Springs was our best defensive guard and provided a ton of leadership. It was just a brutal injury to put a cap on such a special season.
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Mason was limping around that entire game. And MTSU was the 12 seed no one wanted to be matched up against in the first round. The perfect storm.
 

topos said:
And didn't it later come out that Mason was battling a hip injury in the Middle Tennessee State game?

Springs was our best defensive guard and provided a ton of leadership. It was just a brutal injury to put a cap on such a special season.
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I was a huge Springs guy, loved what he brought to the team and would love to bring in a guy like that next year dependent on scholarship availability.
 

Rocksoldier said:
Wow that escaped me, I should’ve remembered that I do remember the tournament, springs got hurt against Michigan and we were shorthanded against middle Tennessee State
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If I remember correctly; Midd Tennessee was a 1 or 1.5 point favorite.
 

M. Tennessee was a buzz saw that nobody wanted to play .... that was a fun year
 

skiumah1 said:
Fun website here to play around with seeding for the BTT:

mred's Big 10 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker

Big 10 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers
bball.notnothing.net
Click to expand...
Edit - looks like someone beat to the punch about a potential 3-seed. Still exciting though!

Ok, this is fun....Still have potential for a 3 seed in the BTT! (Let me dream, will ya!)
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1709659265010.png
 

Going to (potentially) be an awesome night of basketball tomorrow. Northwestern and Michigan State leading directly into the Gophers and Indiana. I'd say the highest and most feasible seed the Gophers can reach is 5. So I'll be pulling for NW tomorrow.

Also, very fun bubble v. bubble matchup in Villanova and Seton Hall to flip back and forth to during MSU-NW game.
 

shaggith said:
Edit - looks like someone beat to the punch about a potential 3-seed. Still exciting though!

Ok, this is fun....Still have potential for a 3 seed in the BTT! (Let me dream, will ya!)
View attachment 30408
View attachment 30409
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This would be a dream draw for us. Double bye followed by either Penn St or NW winner. Followed by ILL (Not Purdue).

What a great dream it is.
 

Ski-U-Ham said:
Mason was limping around that entire game. And MTSU was the 12 seed no one wanted to be matched up against in the first round. The perfect storm.
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They were under-seeded and we were over-seeded. It should have been a 7/10 match-up.
 

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