All Things 2026 Minnesota Twins In-Season Thread

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Ope3 said:
I disagree that there have been "tons of poorly chosen award winners". Sure some in hindsight, should have gone to other players but it's not like those Winners were completely undeserving or gross injustices.

Even in 2005 when Colon won over Santana, it's not like Bartolo was a stiff. He was a 21 Game Winner, the "Ace" on a 1st Place Angels Team. Ws were just starting to lose traction as a major indicator at that time.

Santana had the misfortune of pitching on a very ordinary Twins team that season. Thems the breaks.

Awards are factors. Of several.

Johan never pitched in a World Series. Only Post-season success was out of the pen when the Twins beat the A's in the ALDS. Never even made it as a Met.

I would love it if he was in the HoF, but not being hardly seems out of line.

He got less than 3% of the BBWAA Vote when he was on the ballot. Would 1 more Cy Young convince 72% of the Electors to put him in?
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He had a good year. But did finish 8th in ERA in the AL. Of all the basic stats, that might be the most important one with WHIP probably being second. Santana was by far the leader in WHIP in the AL.

Rivera finishing 2nd might have been even worse IMO.

I think a 3rd gets him a lot more votes to begin with. Maybe not an extra 72% right away but if he's at say 30% after the first year, he has a shot.
 

GophersInIowa said:
He had a good year. But did finish 8th in ERA in the AL. Of all the basic stats, that might be the most important one with WHIP probably being second. Santana was by far the leader in WHIP in the AL.

Rivera finishing 2nd might have been even worse IMO.

I think a 3rd gets him a lot more votes to begin with. Maybe not an extra 72% right away but if he's at say 30% after the first year, he has a shot.
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Perhaps, but I don't think a 3rd Cy Young moves the needle that much without any WS Rings and just 1 post-season victory.

Santana has a very similar Career to Ron Guidry in terms of WAR, ERA, WHIP and Cy Youngs (2).

Guidry though has a pair of WS Rings, 5 Gold Gloves (to Santana's 1) and 31 more Ws.

Gator never got a sniff at Cooperstown via the BBWAA vote. Maxed out at 8.8%.
 
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Bayfield Gopher said:
For example, Rod Carew stole home 7 times in one season! He and Cesar Tovar once stole home in the same game! Now its extremely rare for someone to steal home,
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Was going to comment on this this other day and then forgot. A big reason this dropped off so much is because pitchers throw out of the stretch and hold runners on a lot more often than before, even when there are just runners on 3B.

let alone bunt, sacrfice and hit and run.
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Bunting and hit & run have definitely fallen off significantly over the years. Sacrifice flies are down but not be a ton. In 1991 when the Twins last won the WS, there was a sacrifice fly every 129 plate appearances. Now it is at 140. A bit of a drop off but not a lot.

I still think there's a lot of strategy with the game and I don't miss bunting as much as some others do. Some of the changes have brought back stolen bases and I love that. Now close to the rate it once was at.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Was going to comment on this this other day and then forgot. A big reason this dropped off so much is because pitchers throw out of the stretch and hold runners on a lot more often than before, even when there are just runners on 3B.


Bunting and hit & run have definitely fallen off significantly over the years. Sacrifice flies are down but not be a ton. In 1991 when the Twins last won the WS, there was a sacrifice fly every 129 plate appearances. Now it is at 140. A bit of a drop off but not a lot.

I still think there's a lot of strategy with the game and I don't miss bunting as much as some others do. Some of the changes have brought back stolen bases and I love that. Now close to the rate it once was at.
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I wonder how much bunting has dropped now with the DH in both Leagues.
 



Ope3 said:
Perhaps, but I don't think a 3rd Cy Young moves the needle that much without any WS Rings and just 1 post-season victory.

Santana has a very similar Career to Ron Guidry in terms of WAR, ERA, WHIP and Cy Youngs (2).

Guidry though has a pair of WS Rings, 5 Gold Gloves (to Santana's 1) and 31 more Ws.

Gator never got a sniff at Cooperstown via the BBWAA vote. Maxed out at 8.8%.
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Guidry did get a greater percentage of the vote but 8.8% is still pretty low. I'd argue Santana had a better peak period if you care about that stuff. His JAWS is higher than Guidry.

If Sananta did get so hurt at the end of his career, that would have helped too.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Went from 536 to 184 sacrifice bunts in the National League (2021 to 2022). That's a good point I never even considered.
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The only thing I can think of on the opposite side to increase bunts, the addition of the automatic runner at 2nd base starting in the 10th inning.
 

Ope3 said:
The only thing I can think of on the opposite side to increase bunts, the addition of the automatic runner at 2nd base starting in the 10th inning.
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There's also a domino effect to some extent where the less you bunt, the worse you are at it so have to imagine the percentage of players that actually get the bunt down when trying is lower now than it used to be.
 

Gophers1992 said:
The issue is that there have been tons of poorly chosen award winners, and then the issue compounds itself if that is used to influence HOF voting.
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Tons??🤣. There have been a few outliers who maybe weren’t an obvious choice, but tons is not realistic nor quantifiable - this isn’t the Pro Bowl.

Furthermore, if you’re being considered for the HOF, you’ve stacked credentials, so if you received one you didn’t unapologetically deserve, you were in that HOF neighborhood already😉.

In another thread I posted clips from Shaq and Kareem saying Jordan was the GOAT because he dominated when he played; Barkley said the same thing. Santana winning three CY Young’s would prove he was dominant in three seasons; good enough for me🤷‍♂️
 
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Our secret sauce for the second half?

Strength of Schedule; we’re also closer to the action overall with essentially the same record. From
Matthew Leach’s article about the deadline -

Record at the break: 48-49 (Third in AL Central, 3 games back; tied with Seattle for third AL Wild Card)
Record at the break last year: 47-49 (Second in AL Central, 11.5 games back, 4 games out in AL Wild Card)
Playoff odds: 34.6%, per FanGraphs
Remaining Strength of Schedule: .491 (23rd)

www.mlb.com

What might Twins do at Deadline? Next few weeks will tell

PHILADELPHIA -- Know this: the Twins want to buy at the Trade Deadline. The front office wants to buy. Ownership wants to buy. And of course, the players in the clubhouse want them to buy. The desire is to add players, not shed them, as Minnesota looks to return to
www.mlb.com www.mlb.com
 

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GophersInIowa said:
**Disclaimer: In no way am I suggesting WAR is a perfect (or even great) metric but I think it's an easy starting point as it includes both hitters and pitchers.

Went down the rabbit hole after the Schwarber discussion.

Current players with a WAR of 50+
- 90.5 Trout
- 81.8 Verlander
- 76.7 Betts
- 74.7 Scherzer
- 66.6 Freeman
- 65.4 Goldschmidt
- 64.4 Judge
- 62.3 Machado
- 60.2 Sale
- 60.1 Jose Ramirez
- 59.5 Arenado
- 57.4 Ohtani
- 56.0 Lindor
- 55.8 Harper
- 53.5 Altuve

I did not realize Chris Sale has so many career strikeouts. He has a legit chance of getting to 3000. Currently at 2696. He had almost 2000 after the 2019 season. Injuries spoiled his chance to get to 3500+. I did not realize Goldschmidt was so high either. I think Lindor is the only one I question of this group for the Hall but could be wrong there. Altuve maybe has to wait a little bit longer because of the cheating scandal?

Of the next group, deGrom will be an interesting one. He may end up in a similar situation as Johan Santana. Two Cy Youngs and a WAR around 50. Unlikely to get in. Was surprised to see Marcus Semien at 48.9. Has no shot. Other notables are Stanton at 47 and Correa at 47. Soto is the next obvious one at 45.4, only 27 years old. So unless he falls off the face of the earth, he'll easily get in.

Salvador Perez has been mentioned (35.0) as a possibility but I'm not sure he'll get there. Consistently good but nothing to really hang his hat on. After that there really isn't anyone that close yet. Obviously a lot of younger guys that very well could be in the discussion in 3-5 years though.

www.baseball-reference.com

Career Leaders &amp Records for Wins Above Replacement | Baseball-Reference.com

Career WAR Leaders:1.Babe Ruth+/182.6/10628, 2.Walter Johnson+/168.4/2534, 3.Cy Young+/163.6/3107, 4.Barry Bonds/162.8/12606, 5.Willie Mays+/156.2/12545, 6.Ty Cobb+/149.8/13103, 7.Henry Aaron+/143.2/13941, 8.Roger Clemens/139.2/213, 9.Tris Speaker+/136.1/12021, 10.Honus&nbs
www.baseball-reference.com www.baseball-reference.com
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I forgot about Chapman. He is likely to get in even with a low WAR in the 20s.
 



GophersInIowa said:
I forgot about Chapman. He is likely to get in even with a low WAR in the 20s.
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Would you expect Craig Kimbrel to make it then too? Pretty similar numbers, with Kimbrel outpacing Chapman by about 35 saves.

If I was in charge, I would have bolted the doors to exclusive closers after Mariano Rivera.
 


coolhandgopher said:
Would you expect Craig Kimbrel to make it then too? Pretty similar numbers, with Kimbrel outpacing Chapman by about 35 saves.

If I was in charge, I would have bolted the doors to exclusive closers after Mariano Rivera.
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Probably. I don't think either will get in right away. And Chapman's off the field stuff will hurt him. But think both are probably deserving. Kimbrel's peak was one of the best stretches by a closer ever. Chapman has been elite to very good for a long time. Both are right on par with Billy Wagner who is in.

Jansen is an interesting one. I do not put him at the same level as Chapman, Kimbrel or Wagner. But he has the 3rd most saves in MLB history so it will be hard to keep him out IMO. Although Franco is at 7th and he didn't get close. But I don't think he was ever as dominant as these other guys. Being good for a long time like a Blyleven isn't as impactful as a reliever. Have to be dominant.
 

Relievers are so hard to gauge. It's definitely a position of longevity. Joe Nathan didn't become a closer until he was 29 years old. His averages including things like ERA+ (as a reliever ) are right up there with many of these other guys. He just got off to a late start in his career.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Probably. I don't think either will get in right away. And Chapman's off the field stuff will hurt him. But think both are probably deserving. Kimbrel's peak was one of the best stretches by a closer ever. Chapman has been elite to very good for a long time. Both are right on par with Billy Wagner who is in.

Jansen is an interesting one. I do not put him at the same level as Chapman, Kimbrel or Wagner. But he has the 3rd most saves in MLB history so it will be hard to keep him out IMO. Although Franco is at 7th and he didn't get close. But I don't think he was ever as dominant as these other guys. Being good for a long time like a Blyleven isn't as impactful as a reliever. Have to be dominant.
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Jansen has a Lee Smith vibe to me, with strikingly similar WAR. I never felt Smith was a HOF’er, and think he rode his stint as the all time saves leader into the Hall at the right time, although he pitched a great amount of innings as a closer.
 

coolhandgopher said:
Jansen has a Lee Smith vibe to me, with strikingly similar WAR. I never felt Smith was a HOF’er, and think he rode his stint as the all time saves leader into the Hall at the right time, although he pitched a great amount of innings as a closer.
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Lee Smith is the one exception to my comment about being good for a long time. He 100% is in because of being the saves leader.
 



The odds of turning two 5-4-3 triple plays in the same game have to be insanely low so I tried figuring it out the best I could. There have been 740 recorded triple plays since 1876, only 95 of which were 5-4-3. I've seen different numbers as far as games played since 1876 so for fun will just go with a rough estimate of 220,000.

So based on history, the chances of a 5-4-3 triple play occurring is 95 divided by 220,000. That comes to 0.043%. The chances of it happening twice in a game using that number is 0.000018% or about 1 in 5.55 million. So should only happen once every 5 1/2 million games played.

Edit: I realized afterwards that I should have used 94 as the number instead of 95 as it's actually only happened in 94 games, but whatever. Close enough.
 


GophersInIowa said:
The odds of turning two 5-4-3 triple plays in the same game have to be insanely low so I tried figuring it out the best I could. There have been 740 recorded triple plays since 1876, only 95 of which were 5-4-3. I've seen different numbers as far as games played since 1876 so for fun will just go with a rough estimate of 220,000.

So based on history, the chances of a 5-4-3 triple play occurring is 95 divided by 220,000. That comes to 0.043%. The chances of it happening twice in a game using that number is 0.000018% or about 1 in 5.55 million. So should only happen once every 5 1/2 million games played.

Edit: I realized afterwards that I should have used 94 as the number instead of 95 as it's actually only happened in 94 games, but whatever. Close enough.
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Well done 😃
 

That’s now 18 consecutive innings for Morris.

Perk just mentioned the radio that the bullpen only has two survivors from the start of the season.
 






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