Analysis of Minnesota’s chances against Ohio State

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Didn't watch the video but pretty safe to assume that for us to get the W against Ohio State we will have to play perfect and get some breaks along the way.

Ohio State and Oregon (and to a lesser degree Penn State) are just playing on a different level.
 





Their offense this season isn't as strong as past years, judging by their scoring in all but the Grambling game (who the Gophers could also drop 70 on)

They were stuck on 13 points deep into the 3rd quarter vs Ohio, took until the last drive of the 2nd quarter to get a TD vs Washington, and played a defensive duel with Texas.

But their defense is very tough.

The key will be to protect the passer, find some semblance of a run game, and win the turnover battle. Can't have the kind of mistakes there were against Cal and have any shot.

If they can do this, it probably won't take 40 points to win this game like some years vs OSU.
 

According to Massey Ratings our chance of winning is 3% with the most likely score of 7-31
 


There are innumerable drinking games that could be developed for this contest if you needed one to get drunk.

Sobriety might however be maintained for the number of first down conversions our beloved Gophers may get.

Love to be proved wrong on this one. Ski-U-Tipsy McStagger...
 




FinnGopher said:
Let's channel the spirit of October 14, 2000 at Columbus!
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Watched that game on the cathode ray tube in my living room and loved every minute. It was on the espn with an 11 AM kickoff. As Mel B would say, Grinnin' Glen's grin was "off the chain" after that one.
 

Anyone remember Gophers 2023 at Columbus? Hopefully no one on this thread was at the game. It was really embarrassing as PJ had lost all faith in Athan by this point, team was on rb 5, and the defense was not very good with the exception of Walley who shut down Marvin Harrison Jr. The Gophers literally only tried to drain clock the whole game.
 




Gophers would have beat tOSU the game Mo tore his Achilles. Because they didn’t have an answer for Mo. the OL was wearing them down. Dominating TOP had Stroud, Olave and Wilson as spectators.

I believe this with every fiber of my being.

This team ain’t that team and this tOSU isn’t that tOSU.

PJ and Co need to take the second half game plan and run it back. Lindsey deserves a chance to win the game. Ohio St isn’t as good offensively. I think the gophers can score with them if they let Drake play how he can.
 

BilldGopher said:
Watched that game on the cathode ray tube in my living room and loved every minute. It was on the espn with an 11 AM kickoff. As Mel B would say, Grinnin' Glen's grin was "off the chain" after that one.
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CRT and Mel B in the same post! Nice
 



UpAndUnder43 said:
Gophers would have beat tOSU the game Mo tore his Achilles. Because they didn’t have an answer for Mo. the OL was wearing them down. Dominating TOP had Stroud, Olave and Wilson as spectators.

I believe this with every fiber of my being.

This team ain’t that team and this tOSU isn’t that tOSU.

PJ and Co need to take the second half game plan and run it back. Lindsey deserves a chance to win the game. Ohio St isn’t as good offensively. I think the gophers can score with them if they let Drake play how he can.
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So the Gophers offense is as good as Texas and Washington. Really. I’d be surprised especially at the Horshoe
 

I would be shocked but, but, every year there is a monumental upset. Why not us.
Let it rip, PJ.
OSU looking past us after long flight from Seattle. Can't play conservative. Jump on them early, start believing and fly to the football. Need some luck and win the TO battle, but think its possible.
Now, back to your regular scheduled programming.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Gophers would have beat tOSU the game Mo tore his Achilles. Because they didn’t have an answer for Mo. the OL was wearing them down. Dominating TOP had Stroud, Olave and Wilson as spectators.

I believe this with every fiber of my being.

This team ain’t that team and this tOSU isn’t that tOSU.

PJ and Co need to take the second half game plan and run it back. Lindsey deserves a chance to win the game. Ohio St isn’t as good offensively. I think the gophers can score with them if they let Drake play how he can.
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They were down when he got hurt.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Gophers would have beat tOSU the game Mo tore his Achilles. Because they didn’t have an answer for Mo. the OL was wearing them down. Dominating TOP had Stroud, Olave and Wilson as spectators.

I believe this with every fiber of my being.

This team ain’t that team and this tOSU isn’t that tOSU.

PJ and Co need to take the second half game plan and run it back. Lindsey deserves a chance to win the game. Ohio St isn’t as good offensively. I think the gophers can score with them if they let Drake play how he can.
Click to expand...
We ain't got nothin to lose by letting Drake play gunslinger and spreading the field with 5 wide outs.
 

Laker said:
So the Gophers offense is as good as Texas and Washington. Really. I’d be surprised especially at the Horshoe
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Huh? I never said that. Ohio St shouldn’t score 52. So gophers should try and score a lot. Playing a ball control game when you can’t run isn’t going to work
 

FinnGopher said:
Let's channel the spirit of October 14, 2000 at Columbus!
Click to expand...
I was there with a few other hundreds of excited Gopher fans. It can be done, I think it is possible. Gophers are too young to know the difference. If Ron Johnson can have great game in the horseshoe, so can Jalen Smith and Lemeke Brockington. Keep Drake Lindsey from getting sacked, have the Oline step up and put up some points and anything is possible. Everyone includng every single media outlet will give the Gophers zero chance of winning. It's not every day you get a chance to knock off a highly ranked team in their house especially the number one team in the country. I seem to remember a lesser thought of Gopher team going into Happy Valley and beating Lavar Arrington and Penn State. The first part of believing you can pull an upset is believing you can do it. This is a great opportunity for Minnesota to sneak up on Ohio State. Nobody is gonna talk about Minnesota having a chance, opportunity awaits this coming Sunday. Time to take bragging rights away from Ron Johnson and time for Ron to pass the torch! It's been too long Ron Johnson, pass it.
 
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UpAndUnder43 said:
And driving. And dominating TOP. Believe he went down around the 45 yard line down. After a couple good runs. He had like 160 yards in under 3 quarters.
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He was playing well. But we were losing with him playing great. Would have had a better chance for sure.
 

fmlizard said:
Their offense this season isn't as strong as past years, judging by their scoring in all but the Grambling game (who the Gophers could also drop 70 on)

They were stuck on 13 points deep into the 3rd quarter vs Ohio, took until the last drive of the 2nd quarter to get a TD vs Washington, and played a defensive duel with Texas.

But their defense is very tough.

The key will be to protect the passer, find some semblance of a run game, and win the turnover battle. Can't have the kind of mistakes there were against Cal and have any shot.

If they can do this, it probably won't take 40 points to win this game like some years vs OSU.
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I disagree. I've watched a lot of Ohio State football this year. It likely would take close to 40 points to beat them and multiple mistakes on their part. They have a redshirt freshman, Julian Sayin, at quarterback and have been playing it very safe with him. Exactly what PJ would do if he could. They only open it up when they have to, but their QB is REALLY good, very accurate and smart, and their wide receivers are excellent. Brian Day is a lot like PJ Fleck and likes to play safe, low mistake football if he can, run down the clock, shorten the game and just get out with a win. He doesn't seem like one to worry about style points. OSU probably beats it's opponents by two more scores/week if they have Oregon or Indiana's more aggressive coaches at the helm.

If for some reason we stay close and force them to open it up, I don't know how our D slows them down. Our D has been very suspect against the only two P-4 teams we've played this year. Their D might be the best in the nation! We're not facing Rutgers D again.

As for Ohio U, OSU dominated them statistically with nearly 600 yards of total offense vs. under 200, but just had some bad breaks and still blew them out by 28. Ohio got 63 of their 113 passing yards on one fluky play. Without that play, OSU beats Ohio 37-3. That same Ohio team scored 31 points and lost to Rutgers by 3 points ON THE ROAD earlier this year and that was NOT a fluke! They had almost identical yardage. Ohio U is basically playing like an average P-4 team this year (i.e. the Gophers).

We'll need some very good breaks to win the game against OSU as 23.5 point underdogs! Some have said their defense might be better than their national championship team's a year ago. NIL and the transfer portal has enabled teams like the Gophers to be able to play with almost any team in the nation on our good days. I don't think this year's versions of Ohio State and Oregon are teams we can hang with. I see this game being more like our game against Michigan in 2023, when it was clear we were overmatched, and so do the odds makers. I think Drake is an excellent QB, but how do we protect him? OSU had 9 TFLs including 6 sacks against Washington last week and held their high flying offense to 6 points! OSU's corners practice against Jeremiah Smith, Brandon Inniss and Carnell Tate everyday, what chance do our receivers have of getting any separation?

Look, I hope I'm wrong. We should definitely go into this game loose and gunning for the win. The oddsmakers are saying we have virtually no chance and so there is no pressure on us at all. I'm just warning you not to get your hopes up. PJ might get to begin game planning for Purdue by halftime...
 


SeaBee_Gopher said:
I disagree. I've watched a lot of Ohio State football this year. It likely would take close to 40 points to beat them and multiple mistakes on their part. They have a redshirt freshman, Julian Sayin, at quarterback and have been playing it very safe with him. Exactly what PJ would do if he could. They only open it up when they have to, but their QB is REALLY good, very accurate and smart, and their wide receivers are excellent. Brian Day is a lot like PJ Fleck and likes to play safe, low mistake football if he can, run down the clock, shorten the game and just get out with a win. He doesn't seem like one to worry about style points. OSU probably beats it's opponents by two more scores/week if they have Oregon or Indiana's more aggressive coaches at the helm.

If for some reason we stay close and force them to open it up, I don't know how our D slows them down. Our D has been very suspect against the only two P-4 teams we've played this year. Their D might be the best in the nation! We're not facing Rutgers D again.

As for Ohio U, OSU dominated them statistically with nearly 600 yards of total offense vs. under 200, but just had some bad breaks and still blew them out by 28. Ohio got 63 of their 113 passing yards on one fluky play. Without that play, OSU beats Ohio 37-3. That same Ohio team scored 31 points and lost to Rutgers by 3 points ON THE ROAD earlier this year and that was NOT a fluke! They had almost identical yardage. Ohio U is basically playing like an average P-4 team this year (i.e. the Gophers).

We'll need some very good breaks to win the game against OSU as 23.5 point underdogs! Some have said their defense might be better than their national championship team's a year ago. NIL and the transfer portal has enabled teams like the Gophers to be able to play with almost any team in the nation on our good days. I don't think this year's versions of Ohio State and Oregon are teams we can hang with. I see this game being more like our game against Michigan in 2023, when it was clear we were overmatched, and so do the odds makers. I think Drake is an excellent QB, but how do we protect him? OSU had 9 TFLs including 6 sacks against Washington last week and held their high flying offense to 6 points! OSU's corners practice against Jeremiah Smith, Brandon Inniss and Carnell Tate everyday, what chance do our receivers have of getting any separation?

Look, I hope I'm wrong. We should definitely go into this game loose and gunning for the win. The oddsmakers are saying we have virtually no chance and so there is no pressure on us at all. I'm just warning you not to get your hopes up. PJ might get to begin game planning for Purdue by halftime...
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Good analysis. To Coach Kill's credit we made Urban Meyer's team in 2014 work for it a little that I believe was DillyBar Dan's breakout moment.

A very cold day where the Gophers had more than a pulse and TCF was rockin.' My recollection is that OH-IO State had two short passes for long yards-after-catch runs that really just kept them ahead when needed. The Buckeyes were making uncharacteristic mistakes too that day.

Pretty sure Coach will have the mentality needed but chances are slim. Like someone said lets have a good game and no injuries. Ski-U-Upset!
 

WorkingMyTailOff said:
Anyone remember Gophers 2023 at Columbus? Hopefully no one on this thread was at the game. It was really embarrassing as PJ had lost all faith in Athan by this point, team was on rb 5, and the defense was not very good with the exception of Walley who shut down Marvin Harrison Jr. The Gophers literally only tried to drain clock the whole game.
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I was there. That game was painful. We got many invites to tailgate with the Ohio State fans...they were all pretty nice, but I really think they just felt sorry for us.
A side note... I can check Ohio Stadium off my list and will never go back. Sure, it's huge and it's cool to see that many people packed into one stadium, but otherwise it's a dump. Yeah, I said it.
 

FinnGopher said:
We ain't got nothin to lose by letting Drake play gunslinger and spreading the field with 5 wide outs.
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Are you trying to get Drake killed? 5 wide and no protection . Did you miss the 6 sacks OSU had against Washington? And that is with protection. OSU has 2 stellar DBs plus 2 hybrid linebackers with DB speed. Running the ball with short passes might be a better plan
 

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