Which Basketball Coach gets Fired First?

Who gets the Axe first?

  • Whalen

    Votes: 49 62.0%

  • Johnson

    Votes: 25 31.6%

  • Fleck - I mean he already has it! For 2 years straight!

    Votes: 2 2.5%

  • Coyle - not a coach but is his seat warm?

    Votes: 3 3.8%
  • Total voters
    79
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Otis

Otis

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Just wondering what the odds are which one goes first.

Whalen - Minnesota legend, been in the gig longer, has a solid young base (finally), loses lots of transfers, struggles to win, doesn’t seem to stand out in coaching.

Johnson - not a Minnesota legend, only in 2nd year, recruits well and has a great class coming in, horrible injury luck, doesn’t seem to coach well in games, players forced to play too many minutes, setting new records for performance in the wrong way.

Could - Ok, he’s not a coach! Has struck out with his basketball hires. Made good hires in football and hockey. Third income sport of men’s basketball is setting the floor for revenue through the gate and made basketball forgotten.

My odds:
Whalen - 50% chance of being fired. She’s been here long enough, only thing saving her is freshman, Rose and next years class. If key players transfer after season, I bet she’s gone.

Johnson - 10% only in second year but struggling mightily. Has a great class coming in and could turn things around with a key transfer. Hasn’t shown great coaching and is questionable in coaching chops.

Could - 5% if you’re going to only get one home run hire, make sure it’s in football! He has locked down the number one revenue sport and done well with another in hockey. Abject failure in basketball is so far forgotten in the glow of PJ. His success % is not great but he did well where it counts.
 

Otis said:
Just wondering what the odds are which one goes first.

Whalen - Minnesota legend, been in the gig longer, has a solid young base (finally), loses lots of transfers, struggles to win, doesn’t seem to stand out in coaching.

Johnson - not a Minnesota legend, only in 2nd year, recruits well and has a great class coming in, horrible injury luck, doesn’t seem to coach well in games, players forced to play too many minutes, setting new records for performance in the wrong way.

Could - Ok, he’s not a coach! Has struck out with his basketball hires. Made good hires in football and hockey. Third income sport of men’s basketball is setting the floor for revenue through the gate and made basketball forgotten.

My odds:
Whalen - 50% chance of being fired. She’s been here long enough, only thing saving her is freshman, Rose and next years class. If key players transfer after season, I bet she’s gone.

Johnson - 10% only in second year but struggling mightily. Has a great class coming in and could turn things around with a key transfer. Hasn’t shown great coaching and is questionable in coaching chops.

Could - 5% if you’re going to only get one home run hire, make sure it’s in football! He has locked down the number one revenue sport and done well with another in hockey. Abject failure in basketball is so far forgotten in the glow of PJ. His success % is not great but he did well where it counts.
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What about Should?

There should be a neither option, so I’m abstaining, as I hope both crush it in years to come and that Joey Maturi doesn’t reappear.
 
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They both survive this year. And since I don't think Coyle will fire both at the same time, next year might be an interesting game of Survivor between them. Lindsey's leash is likely a lot shorter but the Men's team is in far rougher shape. Quite a choice.
 

Gopher_In_NYC said:
What about Should?

There should be a neither option, so I’m abstaining, as U hope both crush it in years to come and that Joey Maturi doesn’t reappear.
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Since it says, “Which Coach gets the Axe First?”, choosing PJ would be the “No Coach Gets Fired” as he gets the Axe by his own accomplishments!
 

Otis said:
Since it says, “Which Coach gets the Axe First?”, choosing PJ would be the “No Coach Gets Fired” as he gets the Axe by his own accomplishments!
Click to expand...
Except it doesn't say Axe...woops.
 



Don't let the rare occasionally reasonable words fool you. Don't let the good words about Coach Johnson's recruiting in this poll fool you.

This is simply another troll headline post...the sole purpose is to blast/ridicule Coach Johnson.
 
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howeda7 said:
They both survive this year. And since I don't think Coyle will fire both at the same time, next year might be an interesting game of Survivor between them. Lindsey's leash is likely a lot shorter but the Men's team is in far rougher shape. Quite a choice.
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This is most likely the case and I agree that Lindsay is going to have the hotter seat. She will be in put up or get out mode.

Johnson will only need moderate improvement.
 

EasyThere Pilgrim said:
Don't let the rare occasionally reasonable words fool you. Don't let the good words about Coach Johnson's recruiting in this poll fool you.

This is simply another troll headline post...the sole purpose is to blast Coach Johnson.
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Actually, I have it on good information from the Original Poster that it is slanted more towards being a call to question the effectiveness of Coyle in the opinion of this board.

I”d expect someone with more than 100 posts to be able to pick up on that.

But I am known for overestimating the intelligence of my fellow posters!

Not a troll, by the way. I’m a long suffering Minnesota sports fan who desperately wants to see them all succeed.
 



Otis said:
Actually, I have it on good information from the Original Poster that it is slanted more towards being a call to question the effectiveness of Coyle in the opinion of this board.

I”d expect someone with more than 100 posts to be able to pick up on that.

But I am known for overestimating the intelligence of my fellow posters!

Not a troll, by the way. I’m a long suffering Minnesota sports fan who desperately wants to see them all succeed.
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I'm skeptical.

Fleck and Coyle aren't basketball coaches...like the headline says.
 

Whalen's seat will always start with a lower temperature because the revenue from women's basketball isn't as variable and/or necessary for the financial viability of the overall athletic program. If you don't care about wins/losses, at some point don't you care about the lost revenue from men's basketball? Or has that changed with TV deals to the point where the men's basketball program revenue isn't as fundamental?
 

EasyThere Pilgrim said:
I'm skeptical.

Fleck and Coyle aren't basketball coaches...like the headline says.
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OMFG!

No shit. I had no idea.

The question in the poll is, “Which coach gets the Axe first?”

You have four choices

The Women’s Basketball Coach
The Men’s basketball Coach

A choice of neither being represented by PJ who HAS THE AXE IN HIS TROPHY CASE! (Pun intended)

And Coyle, this choice literally says “NOT A COACH”. But since he is responsible for the basketball brain trust, should he get the axe?

Where is the ignore button?
 

I hope neither of them gets fired, and have long careers here as HC. That will require continued high success on the recruiting trail, especially this fall. And, winning next year is going to be required. Even Coyle and Gabel wont be able to tolerate another season like this one, at least in mens bb.
 



Otis said:
OMFG!

No shit. I had no idea.

The question in the poll is, “Which coach gets the Axe first?”

You have four choices

The Women’s Basketball Coach
The Men’s basketball Coach

A choice of neither being represented by PJ who HAS THE AXE IN HIS TROPHY CASE! (Pun intended)

And Coyle, this choice literally says “NOT A COACH”. But since he is responsible for the basketball brain trust, should he get the axe?

Where is the ignore button?
Click to expand...
I admit, honestly, that I don't like to see bold headlines about Coach Johnson getting fired.

You seem to be twisting & contorting about why you put up this headline.
 


They're not firing a black mens basketball head coach after 2 years. Probably not even after 3 years. If Johnson were white, with this same unmitigated dumpster fire of an opening two seasons, he would likely be fired by March 15 next month.

Ben isn't going anywhere anytime soon. It's best to just hope (pray) that some of the players start to put things together and figure some things out. The body of evidence up to this point doesn't offer a ton of optimism but there's still time.
 

golfing18now said:
Whalen's seat will always start with a lower temperature because the revenue from women's basketball isn't as variable and/or necessary for the financial viability of the overall athletic program. If you don't care about wins/losses, at some point don't you care about the lost revenue from men's basketball? Or has that changed with TV deals to the point where the men's basketball program revenue isn't as fundamental?
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I seem to remember Coyle saying his vision of women’s Basketball was to approach Iowa level interest and ticket sales. So maybe there is some pressure there.

Minnesota is lucky that they have hockey which generates revenue as most colleges only have football and hoops to bring in cash. So maybe this isn’t as important at the moment.

Plus, the new tv contract totally redefines the funding landscape. Ben May not have to turn as much of a profit as Clem did back in the day.

Id like to see them both succeed but it’s hard watching the process, if there is a process.

I just don’t see a defined identity to either basketball team. You would think there would be one no matter how badly the players are at carrying it out.
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
They're not firing a black mens basketball head coach after 2 years. Probably not even after 3 years. If Johnson were white, with this same unmitigated dumpster fire of an opening two seasons, he would likely be fired by March 15 next month.

Ben isn't going anywhere anytime soon. It's best to just hope (pray) that some of the players start to put things together and figure some things out. The body of evidence up to this point doesn't offer a ton of optimism but there's still time.
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Sadly, I think you're spot on. The only exception may be if next year is as big of a dumpster fire as this year. I think if there is ANY sign of improvement over this year, Coyle will sell "an upward trajectory" and CBJ buys himself another year, even if the performance is no better than year 1. But if things go poorly again in year 4 and there is not even NIT in sight, I would suspect he gets canned mid-year. It's highly likely they threw away 4 years in making this choice.

My vote for the poll is Whalen and Coyle come to a "mutual agreement to part ways" for her to save face at the end of next year. CBJ is then fired in February of 2025, partway through year 4. CBJ doesn't get an extension this year, because hot damn that would be bad optics, even if it's just an extension on paper. But he'll get one after year 3, no matter the performance.
 

howeda7 said:
Except it doesn't say Axe...woops.
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I was confused by this as well along with the inclusion of Fleck as a choice. Problem is the text above the polls is impossible to see unless you highlight it. Not sure why that has never been addressed by the website people. Has to be a way they can manipulate that text so that you can actually read it.
 

Otis said:
Minnesota is lucky that they have hockey which generates revenue as most colleges only have football and hoops to bring in cash. So maybe this isn’t as important at the moment.
Click to expand...

Men's hockey generates very little profit though, typically less than 500k per year, and that is quickly wiped out by women's hockey. Having both is a net loss.

Men's basketball has been generating around 10 million in profit per year in non covid times, far and away 2nd most behind football. Women's basketball is the biggest loser of all sports at around -4 million per year.

There is far more incentive to have a successful men's basketball program compared to women's basketball, and hockey matters very little in revenue terms.
 

In terms of who could get fired first out of the 3 legit choices:

None of them will be fired after this season.
Both Whalen and Johnson need to show improvement in 23-24 and Whalen's bar is probably a little bit higher given that she has been with the women's program longer.

So if I had to pick one to potentially get fired after 23-24 it would be Whalen but if both she and Johnson show some signs of progress it would not surprise me to see them both still in charge in 24-25.
 

Whalen is a MN legend. to put it bluntly, I do not think Coyle has the balls to fire her. If things go badly again next year, then maybe they work out some behind-the-scenes deal that allows both sides to save face. But if Whalen does not want to go, she could make it tough on Coyle - and when the going gets tough, Coyle vanishes.

Johnson gets next year to see what happens with the recruits. But if next year is as bad as this year, I think Johnson could be gone. depends on whether Coyle wants the flack he would get from firing a black coach. and I suspect the Regents might squawk about paying the buyout.

Coyle - well, my position is very clear. I want an AD who is wiling and able to serve as the public face of the entire athletic program. Coyle will never be that. OK, he gets credit for hiring Fleck. How far does that credit extend when Williams Arena is empty and the basketball teams keep racking up losses?
 

This is an excellent question, and I find it almost impossible to guess. I will say, though--echoing others above--that transfer rates are going to tell the tale this off season and next.
 

I don't think Coyle has to worry about "getting flack" for firing Ben too soon. That would imply anyone cares. The precious few who still care about this program mostly want him gone. He gets next year to right the ship significantly. But if he doesn't, fear of "getting flack" by Coyle isn't going to save him.
 

howeda7 said:
I don't think Coyle has to worry about "getting flack" for firing Ben too soon. That would imply anyone cares. The precious few who still care about this program mostly want him gone. He gets next year to right the ship significantly. But if he doesn't, fear of "getting flack" by Coyle isn't going to save him.
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read what I said - the flack would be for firing a black coach. If - as some believe - race was a factor in Johnson's hiring - then it will also be a factor in his firing.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
read what I said - the flack would be for firing a black coach. If - as some believe - race was a factor in Johnson's hiring - then it will also be a factor in his firing.
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Who's going to make that argument if Ben is 10-50 in the B1G after three seasons? Do you genuinely see a signficant contingent of media or the public caring enough to do that? I don't. I can't even see Jim Souhan dying on that hill.

I do think the bar Ben has to clear next year will be pretty low. An NIT bid would certainly be enough. But if it's 4-6 wins in the B1G, no one is going to be rushing to his defense.
 

Next year we will know if Ben is on the right track or not. Did the the freshman improve much? Are the new recruits going to lead to success?

You will know everything about Ben next year.

Seems like forever away though.,
 

MNVCGUY said:
So if I had to pick one to potentially get fired after 23-24 it would be Whalen but if both she and Johnson show some signs of progress it would not surprise me to see them both still in charge in 24-25.
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Doesn’t next season for Whalen have to end with either termination/resignation or extension? It doesn’t seem possible for Whalen to recruit during the spring and summer of ‘24 and going forward when her contract expires at the end of the 24-25 season.

Recruiting the ‘24 class is already a problem for Whalen given her contract, but that’s ok, because she either succeeds or fails based on the ‘22 and ‘23 classes. But also losing the ‘25 class while coaching 2024-25 season without an extension would be stupid, a la Iowa with Tom Davis.

Iowa wouldn’t fire or extend Tom Davis, choosing instead to let him coach his last year. That recruiting-killing limbo is the worst option for a program. So either extend Lindsay at the end of next season, if she does enough to earn it, or part ways.
 

Bad Gopher said:
This is an excellent question, and I find it almost impossible to guess. I will say, though--echoing others above--that transfer rates are going to tell the tale this off season and next.
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Bingo. See key transfers out and that could get someone fired after next season. Coyle is not going anywhere. And no one should want a return to the Maturi standard.
 

EasyThere Pilgrim said:
Don't let the rare occasionally reasonable words fool you. Don't let the good words about Coach Johnson's recruiting in this poll fool you.

This is simply another troll headline post...the sole purpose is to blast/ridicule Coach Johnson.
Click to expand...
So you don't want us to talk about when he may be fired, and you don't want us to talk about his results. Would your preference be that the sole topic of conversation on this board be next year's recruits and their wingspan?

And if hte purpose of this post is to "blast/ridicule" the coach, then it is superfluous, because his record takes care of that on its own.
 

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