Stability vs Upward Trajectory in the B1G West

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RememberMurray

RememberMurray

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Wisconsin, and Iowa have achieved stability at a respectable level. Their success is laudable, but it seems unlikely they will reach any sort of 'next level up'. I could see either one making an occasional serious run at the B1G Title, but that would appear to be their ceiling.

Northwestern has their own unique form of "unstable stability". Up one year to a pretty high level, then down the next to a fairly low bottom.

Nebraska is wobbling right now. It is hard to say where that program is headed.

Minnesota, Purdue and possibly Illinois have upward trajectories, to my eye. We don't yet know where the ceiling is for those three programs. Of the three, Minnesota appears to have established the strongest foundation.
 

RememberMurray said:
Wisconsin, and Iowa have achieved stability at a respectable level. Their success is laudable, but it seems unlikely they will reach any sort of 'next level up'. I could see either one making an occasional serious run at the B1G Title, but that would appear to be their ceiling.

Northwestern has their own unique form of "unstable stability". Up one year to a pretty high level, then down the next to a fairly low bottom.

Nebraska is wobbling right now. It is hard to say where that program is headed.

Minnesota, Purdue and possibly Illinois have upward trajectories, to my eye. We don't yet know where the ceiling is for those three programs. Of the three, Minnesota appears to have established the strongest foundation.
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If Brohm was a better coach I’d be nervous - man I’d love to have him as my OC as long as I could have a shock collar to control him when he needs to zip his 🤐
 

RememberMurray said:
Wisconsin, and Iowa have achieved stability at a respectable level. Their success is laudable, but it seems unlikely they will reach any sort of 'next level up'. I could see either one making an occasional serious run at the B1G Title, but that would appear to be their ceiling.
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Both programs have "nearly" gotten to the playoffs in the past six years, but neither has. Iowa was literally one play away (about three inches) from making the College Football Playoffs in 2015, while Wisconsin was 12-0 and facing OSU in the 2017 Big Ten title game with a College Football Playoff berth on the line and lost by six.
 
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It's easier to get to the playoffs when your permanent crossover game is Nebraska.
Ohio State has been riding that gravy train for some time and it's coming to an end with them having WI as their permanent crossover next. Michigan will get Nebraska, so far more CFP chances for them.

Iowa is getting Rutgers for a cross-over so that could help their ceiling over the next few years.

I think to be a CFP team, you need an elite QB play with a dual-purpose QB and excellent defensive line.
 

Face The Facts said:
It's easier to get to the playoffs when your permanent crossover game is Nebraska.
Ohio State has been riding that gravy train for some time and it's coming to an end with them having WI as their permanent crossover next. Michigan will get Nebraska, so far more CFP chances for them.

Iowa is getting Rutgers for a cross-over so that could help their ceiling over the next few years.

I think to be a CFP team, you need an elite QB play with a dual-purpose QB and excellent defensive line.
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Really interesting point. The thing is, though, nothing remains in a static state.

Is Rutgers still a pushover? Since Schiano returned, I'm not so sure.

How about Illinois... are they still the doormat they were under Lovie? I wouldn't bet on it.

And we are at the very beginning stages of a really, really big change: the portal. How will the new transfer rules impact the balance of power? Will we see more 'parity' because of it? Think of Pinckney and Gibbens and Dylan Wright.
 


Face The Facts said:
It's easier to get to the playoffs when your permanent crossover game is Nebraska.
Ohio State has been riding that gravy train for some time and it's coming to an end with them having WI as their permanent crossover next. Michigan will get Nebraska, so far more CFP chances for them.

Iowa is getting Rutgers for a cross-over so that could help their ceiling over the next few years.

I think to be a CFP team, you need an elite QB play with a dual-purpose QB and excellent defensive line.
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Vise versa, too.

Iowa is in the Big Ten title game without having to play Michigan or Ohio State or MSU.

The three teams tied for 2nd place had to play one or the other (MN played and lost to OSU, Purdue played and lost to OSU, WIS played and lost to MICH).

Iowa did beat Penn State when it was ranked #4, but it turns out they weren't that good.

If Iowa had to play either OSU or MICH, it is likely there would have been a four-way tie and Minnesota might be in Indy.
 

tjgopher said:
Vise versa, too.

Iowa is in the Big Ten title game without having to play Michigan or Ohio State or MSU.

The three teams tied for 2nd place had to play one or the other (MN played and lost to OSU, Purdue played and lost to OSU, WIS played and lost to MICH).

Iowa did beat Penn State when it was ranked #4, but it turns out they weren't that good.

If Iowa had to play either OSU or MICH, it is likely there would have been a four-way tie and Minnesota might be in Indy.
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Iowa isn't there if PSUs QB doesn't get hurt.
 


tjgopher said:
Vise versa, too.

Iowa is in the Big Ten title game without having to play Michigan or Ohio State or MSU.

The three teams tied for 2nd place had to play one or the other (MN played and lost to OSU, Purdue played and lost to OSU, WIS played and lost to MICH).

Iowa did beat Penn State when it was ranked #4, but it turns out they weren't that good.

If Iowa had to play either OSU or MICH, it is likely there would have been a four-way tie and Minnesota might be in Indy.
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This is where the differences in the two divisions really come into play. For teams in the East there is not a massive difference in the quality of their crossover games because there is not a massive split amongst the teams in the West most years. However, for teams in the West it absolutely is a big factor who you get paired up with from the East since the division is much more split with some really good teams and some really bad teams most years.

As for teams in the West if I was going to look at how teams are trending in recent years....

Wisconsin - steady to slightly down from where they were
Iowa - steady
Minnesota - trending up
Purdue - trending up but at a slower pace than Minnesota
Illinois - under Lovie they were steady to trending down, under Bielema looks like they may be trending up.
Northwestern - Northwestern's version of steady, sometimes really good sometimes really bad
Nebraska - Anyone's guess at this point. Overall I would say they trended up some this year but the results don't reflect what the team looked like on the field in most games. So who knows what the future holds for this program. In some ways they probably have the most upside potential if they ever figure it out.
 



RememberMurray said:
And the Gophers could easily have won their game in Iowa City. Minnesota outplayed them.

Right now, there is no longer much difference between Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. If any. A break here, a break there is what separates them.
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The last two full seasons I would completely agree. Minnesota needs to sustain, gROW and continue to move ahead of them.
 

MNVCGUY said:
This is where the differences in the two divisions really come into play. For teams in the East there is not a massive difference in the quality of their crossover games because there is not a massive split amongst the teams in the West most years. However, for teams in the West it absolutely is a big factor who you get paired up with from the East since the division is much more split with some really good teams and some really bad teams most years.

As for teams in the West if I was going to look at how teams are trending in recent years....

Wisconsin - steady to slightly down from where they were
Iowa - steady
Minnesota - trending up
Purdue - trending up but at a slower pace than Minnesota
Illinois - under Lovie they were steady to trending down, under Bielema looks like they may be trending up.
Northwestern - Northwestern's version of steady, sometimes really good sometimes really bad
Nebraska - Anyone's guess at this point. Overall I would say they trended up some this year but the results don't reflect what the team looked like on the field in most games. So who knows what the future holds for this program. In some ways they probably have the most upside potential if they ever figure it out.
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Thank you! This is exactly what I was getting at in my OP.

I like the fact that the Gopher program is on an upward trend. Meanwhile, as we're ascending, our two main rivals are not likely to transcend their current positions. Ferentz has been Ferentz forever; and Chryst is an Alvarez system guy. There are good things and bad things about sustained stability. One downside is you've probably already reached your ceiling.

I think Fleck's system just might have a pretty high ceiling. I certainly like Fleck's youthful energy.
 

Well, again, I hope the supposed proposal that the Big Ten is considering, goes through.

Get rid of divisions. Just pick the best two to go to Indy each year, via transparent, objective criteria.


Give me Iowa, Wisc, and Mich on a yearly basis, and then rotate through the remaining 10 teams home/home every four years. Just ridiculous that we hadn't been to IU, supposedly a team we're in the same conference with, since 2013!

And gives us the extra non-conf game to do as we please, while balancing the conf schedule back to an even number of home/away each year.


Can't see a loss in there.
 

MplsGopher said:
Well, again, I hope the supposed proposal that the Big Ten is considering, goes through.

Get rid of divisions. Just pick the best two to go to Indy each year, via transparent, objective criteria.


Give me Iowa, Wisc, and Mich on a yearly basis, and then rotate through the remaining 10 teams home/home every four years. Just ridiculous that we hadn't been to IU, supposedly a team we're in the same conference with, since 2013!

And gives us the extra non-conf game to do as we please, while balancing the conf schedule back to an even number of home/away each year.


Can't see a loss in there.
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Yeah. How cool would it be to play Indiana more often? I mean, who among us doesn't get pumped for Hoosier Week? Game on, baby!

Who really cares about budding rivalries with Nebraska and Purdue? Pffffft.

If the B1G makes this change, I can't wait to see the "transparent, objective criteria" they employ to hand-pick the title game participants.
 



RememberMurray said:
budding rivalries with Nebraska and Purdue?
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:sneaky:

Nope - you're just making that up to try to give yourself a leg to stand on. AND we'd play them home/home every four years. Doubt anyone gives a rip about not seeing either one every two years.

RememberMurray said:
I can't wait to see the "transparent, objective criteria" they employ to hand-pick the title game participants.
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Objective means there would be no such "hand picking". Again, you making things up to try to give yourself a leg to stand on.

Could easily do something like: "top two ranked teams in the CFP rankings, unless it would be a re-match of games from the week prior". In that case you'd have Michigan vs Mich St or Iowa, depending on how the rankings come out tomorrow.
 

MplsGopher said:
:sneaky:

Nope - you're just making that up to try to give yourself a leg to stand on. AND we'd play them home/home every four years. Doubt anyone gives a rip about not seeing either one every two years.


Objective means there would be no such "hand picking". Again, you making things up to try to give yourself a leg to stand on.

Could easily do something like: "top two ranked teams in the CFP rankings, unless it would be a re-match of games from the week prior". In that case you'd have Michigan vs Mich St or Iowa, depending on how the rankings come out tomorrow.
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I love the games against Nebraska and Purdue, and I strongly doubt I'm the only one. The dynamic friction generated by the dislike between Fleck, Brohm and Frost is a lot of fun. And I really, really, really couldn't care less about playing Indiana more often. Blah.

So the CFP rankings are your "objective" method for choosing who gets to go to Indy, eh? Snicker.
 


Which is more interesting and fun to watch: Fleck vs Brohm, Fleck vs Frost or Fleck vs Allen?

It ain't close. The first two are a blast, the last one is a snooze.

Indiana is a basketball school. Nobody cares about Indiana football.
 

RememberMurray said:
Which is more interesting and fun to watch: Fleck vs Brohm, Fleck vs Frost or Fleck vs Allen?

It ain't close. The first two are a blast, the last one is a snooze.
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Silly

None of the four men mentioned, are on the field playing the game.

You've lost this battle, Murray. But feel free to die on the hill.


Back in the real world, the Big Ten is, hopefully, giving serious consideration to the proposal to kill divisions.
 


RememberMurray said:
I love the games against Nebraska and Purdue, and I strongly doubt I'm the only one. The dynamic friction generated by the dislike between Fleck, Brohm and Frost is a lot of fun. And I really, really, really couldn't care less about playing Indiana more often. Blah.

So the CFP rankings are your "objective" method for choosing who gets to go to Indy, eh? Snicker.
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Broken Bits Baby!
 


MplsGopher said:
Silly

None of the four men mentioned, are on the field playing the game.

You've lost this battle, Murray. But feel free to die on the hill.


Back in the real world, the Big Ten is, hopefully, giving serious consideration to the proposal to kill divisions.
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None of the coaches play on the field? That's your argument?

Do you need to see Fleck, Ferentz and Chryst on the field before you'd consider Iowa and Wisconsin rivals?

Wowser. That's an incredibly dumb argument. Phew.
 

I hope they don’t make this move ,it’s kind of stupid.
It’s hard to balance the B1G geographically. The East is loaded with three Blue Bloods. Two of which are inseparable because of their rivalry.
Maybe it would make more sense to swap PSU for Purdue in an effort to balance the divisions more.
of course that makes things easier for Michigan and Ohio State but it’s already pretty easy for them.
 

MplsGopher said:
Wrong. The objectivity was only ever in reference to the Big Ten's method of choosing.
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Oh. I see. Uh huh.

It wasn't about objectivity, it was about who gets to subjectively choose, and by what subjective method.

Got it.
 



Unless you are going to play a complete round-robin schedule (which is not feasible), you CANNOT get rid of divisions.

I really like the current setup of East vs West. I like the rivalries we're building up. I also like the 9 game conference season.

I hope the Big Ten doesn't change a thing.
 


MplsGopher said:
You like "watching" coaches, on the sidelines?? That's your argument?

Wowser. That's an incredibly dumb argument. Phew.
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Says the guy who would rather see the coaches on the field in pads and helmets.
 

DarrenTheGreek said:
Unless you are going to play a complete round-robin schedule (which is not feasible), you CANNOT get rid of divisions.

I really like the current setup of East vs West. I like the rivalries we're building up. I also like the 9 game conference season.

I hope the Big Ten doesn't change a thing.
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Agree with this 100%. Plus, I am a Gopher fan. And, it is most beneficial for the Gophers to keep the current set up. Period.

In addition, I would much rather play Nebraska, Purdue, Northwestern and Illinois every year, than lose those annual games so we get to see Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana more often.
 

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