Gophers at #10 in CFP poll

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I was happy there wasn't a big drop for the Gophers. It is interesting to see how local media reports it though. They always seem to find ways to make it look worse. I think it is a good thing the Gophers only went back two spots after losing a game, although like others have said, it is annoying to see Penn State jump up to #8 ahead of the Gophers. But I am seeing written headlines and comments on the radio using words like "tumble" to describe the Gophers going from #8 to #10. I realize I have a bit of a chip on my shoulder but it just seems like some headlines are more negative than they need to be. I'd argue that going from #8 to #10 after a loss is a positive development.
 

AtTheLibrary said:
They still have PSU in rose bowl over the Gophers but I bet that all changes if we win and Ohio St
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I don’t think we have to beat Ohio State to get to the Rose. We just need to win the west and have Ohio State beat Penn State. If that happens, and we lose the Big10 Championship to Ohio State and finish 11-2, there is no way the Rose takes Penn Stare over us.
 

Face The Facts said:
Actually a fair ranking. PSU ahead of us because they lost to a better team than we did.

If we beat NW and WI, hard to keep us behind Oregon (or even Bama / Georgia at that point.

If we lose to NW or WI it all doesn't matter and we can just worry about Bowl games.
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Hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think beating Northwestern and Wisconsin moves us in front of Georgia. We may jump Alabama, Oregon and Utah, but I don’t think we jump Georgia. While UGA lost to a down South Carolina, they have wins over two top ten teams when they played them and another great road win over a fringe top ten team in Auburn. The committee obviously likes Georgia in spite of the loss to the Gamecocks. I think the CFP has already telegraphed its feelings about the Bulldogs. If they win out they are in. And that is the nightmare scenario for not only Minnesota, but a lot of other teams as well. If Georgia bests LSU in the SEC championship game and it is close, say a TD or less difference, we could be looking at two SEC teams once again in the playoff.
 

tmvander said:
Thing is if we win the next 2, lose to Ohio St, and they lose to Ohio St we WON'T have the same record. We will be 11-2 and they will be 10-2. Would have to think that extra Big Ten win has to count for something.
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I hope in this scenario that we are considered 11-1, for the sake of rankings. It really is very unfair to the losers of conference championship games, to give them an extra loss.
I do think it is fair that the winners of those games benefit from an extra win, but not the other way around.
 

BeerFueledFF said:
Combo of Pittsburgh, Michigan and Iowa wins being worth more than us just beating Penn State. I can see the argument both ways, and I'm fine with us being behind them right now. Either we pass them after this week OR we face them a second time in Indy for all the marbles.
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This is exactly correct. Only one of three things can happen:
- PSU beats OSU, in which case PSU will be in Indy
- OSU beats PSU, and we beat NW and Wisc, in which case we'll be ranked higher than PSU next week and the following week, and we'll be in Indy
- we lose to NW and/or Wisc, in which case the rankings are out the window anyway
 


U2Gopher said:
Hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think beating Northwestern and Wisconsin moves us in front of Georgia. We may jump Alabama, Oregon and Utah, but I don’t think we jump Georgia. While UGA lost to a down South Carolina, they have wins over two top ten teams when they played them and another great road win over a fringe top ten team in Auburn. The committee obviously likes Georgia in spite of the loss to the Gamecocks. I think the CFP has already telegraphed its feelings about the Bulldogs. If they win out they are in. And that is the nightmare scenario for not only Minnesota, but a lot of other teams as well. If Georgia bests LSU in the SEC championship game and it is close, say a TD or less difference, we could be looking at two SEC teams once again in the playoff.
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But why are you worried about getting into the top 4 before the Big Ten champ game?

That was likely never going to be a thing, and won't be a thing now.
 

U2Gopher said:
Hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think beating Northwestern and Wisconsin moves us in front of Georgia. We may jump Alabama, Oregon and Utah, but I don’t think we jump Georgia. While UGA lost to a down South Carolina, they have wins over two top ten teams when they played them and another great road win over a fringe top ten team in Auburn. The committee obviously likes Georgia in spite of the loss to the Gamecocks. I think the CFP has already telegraphed its feelings about the Bulldogs. If they win out they are in. And that is the nightmare scenario for not only Minnesota, but a lot of other teams as well. If Georgia bests LSU in the SEC championship game and it is close, say a TD or less difference, we could be looking at two SEC teams once again in the playoff.
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Unless Georgia absolutely blows out LSU in the title game, and I'm talking a 30+ point blowout, LSU will be in the playoffs.
 

If I'm the commissioner of the SEC, I'm sending the bagmen over to Baton Rouge as payment to get them to lay down in the SEC champ game. That is all but guaranteed two SEC in the top 4. Not much can be done about it, at this point. Clemson will be undefeated and in. Ohio St undefeated would be the other lock.

If Ohio St loses in the Big Ten champ game ... that doesn't mean two Big Ten teams. It means you open the door up to 1-loss PAC and Big XII teams, maybe even Alabama, football gods save us.
 

People are overlooking the Illinois win because they're not ranked, but they are tied with Iowa in the standings. Wins the next two weeks take care of this whole issue.
 



Joe Hardy said:
To degrade head-to-head is a weak argument. With that logic, a P. St. win would mean that they do not move ahead of Ohio St ? If Ohio St looses this week, look for ‘ bama to move up. That leaves the BIG out of the playoffs.
How Does the committee rank the following one loss teams? If it were to come out this way?

Alabama
Minnesota
Ohio St.
Penn St.
Oregon
Baylor
Utah
Georgia
Oklahoma
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If Penn State beats Ohio State by 1 do you think we deserve to be the highest ranked Big 10 team?

I don't like it but it's fair. One game shouldn't be more important than the other 18. Penn State has 3 solid wins in 4 chances. We have 1 in 2. If we had already beaten Wisconsin and our last game was against someone like Purdue maybe we'd be above them but they've played a significantly tougher schedule and have the same record.
 

MnplsGopher said:
If I'm the commissioner of the SEC, I'm sending the bagmen over to Baton Rouge as payment to get them to lay down in the SEC champ game. That is all but guaranteed two SEC in the top 4. Not much can be done about it, at this point. Clemson will be undefeated and in. Ohio St undefeated would be the other lock.

If Ohio St loses in the Big Ten champ game ... that doesn't mean two Big Ten teams. It means you open the door up to 1-loss PAC and Big XII teams, maybe even Alabama, football gods save us.
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If a one loss Big Ten team is the Big Ten champ, they should get in. Both Penn State and Minnesota would have good enough resumes to jump into the top 4.

The nightmare scenario is if a 2 loss Minnesota or Wisconsin wins the Big Ten title.
 

BeerFueledFF said:
If a one loss Big Ten team is the Big Ten champ, they should get in. Both Penn State and Minnesota would have good enough resumes to jump into the top 4.

The nightmare scenario is if a 2 loss Minnesota or Wisconsin wins the Big Ten title.
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I don't disagree with you, on a 1-loss BT champ.

But the committee might. It opens the door to consider 1-loss Oregon/Utah/Oklahoma ..... even Alabama.
 

MnplsGopher said:
I don't disagree with you, on a 1-loss BT champ.

But the committee might. It opens the door to consider 1-loss Oregon/Utah/Oklahoma ..... even Alabama.
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Oklahoma is on the outside looking in at this point, sitting at #9 with no top 10 game available to springboard them higher.

Oregon/Utah is the more interesting option. There issue will be that the PAC doesn't have anyone in the next tier of teams though for them to have big wins against. Oregons best win would be Utah in the title game, and then USC. Utah's best win would be Oregon and that's it.

Alabama would have a win against a 4 loss Auburn, and that's it.

Minnesota would have wins over Penn State, Wisconsin, and either Ohio State or Penn State again. So 3 wins against top 15ish teams.

Penn State would have wins over Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, and either Minnesota or Wisconsin. So they'd have 4 wins against top 15ish teams.

I don't see how those two resumes wouldn't jump into the top 4. Both have such back loaded schedules and almost a guaranteed top 10 showdown in the title game.
 



BeerFueledFF said:
Oklahoma is on the outside looking in at this point, sitting at #9 with no top 10 game available to springboard them higher.

Oregon/Utah is the more interesting option. There issue will be that the PAC doesn't have anyone in the next tier of teams though for them to have big wins against. Oregons best win would be Utah in the title game, and then USC. Utah's best win would be Oregon and that's it.

Alabama would have a win against a 4 loss Auburn, and that's it.

Minnesota would have wins over Penn State, Wisconsin, and either Ohio State or Penn State again. So 3 wins against top 15ish teams.

Penn State would have wins over Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, and either Minnesota or Wisconsin. So they'd have 4 wins against top 15ish teams.

I don't see how those two resumes wouldn't jump into the top 4. Both have such back loaded schedules and almost a guaranteed top 10 showdown in the title game.
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This is a great summary ... of this type of data.

Thing is, this is not, and won't be, the end all, be all. It won't. That's not how the committee works.

The committee is still capable of saying something like "well, we looked at all the film of the past few weeks, of all the top teams .... and our feeling is that, right now, Oklahoma just *looks* like a better team than Minnesota, so that's why we put them #4 and Minnesota #5".

That is within their power, to do. It is not a matter of inserting the data, and turning the crank.
 




U2Gopher said:
Hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think beating Northwestern and Wisconsin moves us in front of Georgia. We may jump Alabama, Oregon and Utah, but I don’t think we jump Georgia. While UGA lost to a down South Carolina, they have wins over two top ten teams when they played them and another great road win over a fringe top ten team in Auburn. The committee obviously likes Georgia in spite of the loss to the Gamecocks. I think the CFP has already telegraphed its feelings about the Bulldogs. If they win out they are in. And that is the nightmare scenario for not only Minnesota, but a lot of other teams as well. If Georgia bests LSU in the SEC championship game and it is close, say a TD or less difference, we could be looking at two SEC teams once again in the playoff.
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Georgia needs to lose to LSU to avoid two SEC teams.
 

I was going to argue that Oklahoma doesn't have enough defense (#36 nationally) for the committee to consider them and then I realized LSU is lower at #47. Oop!
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
See that was our problem all along.

We didn't have a quality loss....

That's like 10 bonus points or something.
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It seems like the key to be ranked high is to play 3-5 ranked teams per year, lose no more than 2, and stay within 7 on the losses. Even with a 3rd loss you will still be inside the top 25 if you have at least 1 win against a ranked team. As long as you beat at least one of them it's better to play more ranked teams than avoid losses.
 

GoGophersUMN said:
It seems like the key to be ranked high is to play 3-5 ranked teams per year, lose no more than 2, and stay within 7 on the losses. Even with a 3rd loss you will still be inside the top 25 if you have at least 1 win against a ranked team. As long as you beat at least one of them it's better to play more ranked teams than avoid losses.
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It was a big deal for the Gophers to get back into last week's game vs continue to get rolled and lose by 10-30.
 

dpodoll68 said:
Assuming the same record, head-to-head has to be the tiebreaker. It has to be. Otherwise there is no point in playing the games. Strength of schedule and resume and all the other things come into play when the two teams haven't played each other.
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It really can't be. Home field has to be taken into consideration as well, does it not? And Penn State beat Iowa AT Kinnick....where we lost. I have no problem with Penn State being ranked ahead of us right now. The Ohio State game could knock them below us.
 

MnplsGopher said:
This is a great summary ... of this type of data.

Thing is, this is not, and won't be, the end all, be all. It won't. That's not how the committee works.

The committee is still capable of saying something like "well, we looked at all the film of the past few weeks, of all the top teams .... and our feeling is that, right now, Oklahoma just *looks* like a better team than Minnesota, so that's why we put them #4 and Minnesota #5".

That is within their power, to do. It is not a matter of inserting the data, and turning the crank.
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Unfortunately....this is the case. Resume doesn't exactly matter as much as it should. Of course....if it were the SEC team with the better resume....that would be the justification for taking them over the alternative.

Again....this would be another crack in the NCAA shield. Taking one loss SEC teams over one loss conference champions from other conferences because of perception and because of the "eye test" will eventually cause a major problem. Just talking about it is an issue. If Ohio State loses to Penn State and doesn't make the Big Ten Championship, do they still have a shot? Probably not. But Alabama....whose best win might be against an 8-4 Auburn (a good team with losses against good teams) is still a major factor as an 11-1 non conference champion?

Something has to be fixed.
 

stocker08 said:
It really can't be. Home field has to be taken into consideration as well, does it not? And Penn State beat Iowa AT Kinnick....where we lost. I have no problem with Penn State being ranked ahead of us right now. The Ohio State game could knock them below us.
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Sure it can. It has to be. If head-to-head doesn't matter, there is literally no reason to play the games. Let's just play it all out on paper based on recruiting rankings and analytics and declare Alabama or Clemson the national champion every year.
 


Spoofin said:
10th in the Country the week after a loss and we still need to find disrespect where it doesn’t exist. Why care?
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It's not about disrespect, it's about common sense. One has to stretch and contort to figure out why PSU is above Minnesota, rather than just simply look at who beat who, which is the entire point of athletic competition. I'm very happy (and pleasantly surprised) that we're still in the top 10, but we should be above PSU.

Spoofin said:
Today’s rankings mean zero. Nothing.
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Incorrect. If the point of playing the game is to win championships, I invite you to find a team who wasn't highly ranked at this point of the CFP (say top 10 or higher) and still had an opportunity to play in the CFP. The final pre-CFP rankings mean the most, and the rest mean less, but to say the rest "mean zero" is ignorant.
 

dpodoll68 said:
Sure it can. It has to be. If head-to-head doesn't matter, there is literally no reason to play the games. Let's just play it all out on paper based on recruiting rankings and analytics and declare Alabama or Clemson the national champion every year.
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You are trying to simplify things down to dummy levels. What about PSU winning at Kinnick while we lost? How does that fit in to the equation? Does it not factor in at all in your dummy equation?

Who said anything about recruiting rankings or analytics? I am talking about looking at resumes as a whole. You are trying to boil things down to a very low level.
 

stocker08 said:
You are trying to simplify things down to dummy levels. What about PSU winning at Kinnick while we lost? How does that fit in to the equation? Does it not factor in at all in your dummy equation?

Who said anything about recruiting rankings or analytics? I am talking about looking at resumes as a whole. You are trying to boil things down to a very low level.
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As I've already accurately stated, things like common opponents, strength of schedule, strength of wins, strength of losses, etc., etc., etc. enter into the equation when the teams haven't played each other. Things like this would enter in when you're trying to figure out whether Oklahoma is better than Alabama, whether Georgia is better than Oregon, etc. If you're trying to use those when the two teams have already played each other, you're looking for a problem and trying to solve an issue that doesn't exist.

Overall record - tie; Minnesota 9-1, PSU 9-1
Conference record - tie; Minnesota 6-1, PSU 6-1

Now, we have two teams with identical overall and conference records. Now, if only there were a direct, simple way to decide which of those two teams is better. If only we had a means to perhaps, I don't know, put them on the same field at the same time and engage in an athletic competition.
 

dpodoll68 said:
As I've already accurately stated, things like common opponents, strength of schedule, strength of wins, strength of losses, etc., etc., etc. enter into the equation when the teams haven't played each other. Things like this would enter in when you're trying to figure out whether Oklahoma is better than Alabama, whether Georgia is better than Oregon, etc. If you're trying to use those when the two teams have already played each other, you're looking for a problem and trying to solve an issue that doesn't exist.

Overall record - tie; Minnesota 9-1, PSU 9-1
Conference record - tie; Minnesota 6-1, PSU 6-1

Now, we have two teams with identical overall and conference records. Now, if only there were a direct, simple way to decide which of those two teams is better. If only we had a means to perhaps, I don't know, put them on the same field at the same time and engage in an athletic competition.
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Gophers won in a head to head matchup in Minneapolis. I agree that the Gophers looked like the better team. But PSU also went on the road and beat Iowa where the Gophers could not.

Now....if only there where a way for you to admit that your analysis is incomplete....and that you can't admit it?
 

The system will never be perfect. The committee's task is to rank the teams, not to mollify dpodoll. Imperfect people are using their best logic to consider imperfect criteria.

Anyway, this ranking doesn't bother me because I agree with it. Penn State has looked like a better team than Minnesota all season, except for the one week that our boys beat them. The good news is that nobody can stop the Gophers from being Big Ten champs if they win three more games.
 

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