Final Field of 68 Projection

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SelectionSunday

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Here's my final projection. Thanks for following along all season.

FIELD OF 68 (March 17, 2019, 12:25 a.m.)

America East (1) Vermont (71)

American (3): Houston (4), Cincinnati (25), UCF (30)

ACC (7): Virginia (1), Duke (3), North Carolina (7), Virginia Tech (11), Florida State (16), Louisville (22), Syracuse (42)

ASUN (1): Liberty (58)

Atlantic 10 (2): VCU (34), Saint Louis (103)/Saint Bonaventure (118) title game winner

Big East (4): Villanova (26), Marquette (28), Seton Hall (57), Saint John's (73)

Big Sky (1): Montana (124)

Big South (1): Gardner-Webb (173)

B1G (8): Michigan State (8), Michigan (9), Purdue (12), Wisconsin (17), Maryland (27), Iowa (43), Ohio State (55), Minnesota (61)

Big XII (7): Texas Tech (10), Kansas (20), Iowa State (21), Kansas State (24), Oklahoma (37), Baylor (39), TCU (52)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (68)

Colonial (1): Northeastern (78)

Conference USA (1): Old Dominion (100)

Horizon (1): Northern Kentucky (115)

Ivy (1): Yale (86)/Harvard (129) title game winner

MAAC (1): Iona (202)

MAC (1): Buffalo (15)

MEAC (1): North Carolina Central (302)

Missouri Valley (1): Bradley (176)

Mountain West (2): Nevada (23), Utah State (29)

NEC (1): Fairleigh Dickinson (203)

OVC (1): Murray State (44)

Pac 12 (3): Washington (45), Oregon (51), Arizona State (63)

Patriot (1): Colgate (132)

SEC (8): Tennessee (5), Kentucky (6), LSU (14), Auburn (18), Mississippi State (19), Florida (31), Ole Miss (36), Alabama (59)

SoCon (1): Wofford (13)

Southland (1): Abilene Christian (154)

SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M (205)

Summit (1): North Dakota State (222)

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State (121)/UT-Arlington (161) title game winner

WCC (2): Gonzaga (2), Saint Mary's (32)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (40)
_______________________

Last 4 In: Washington (45), Saint John's (73), TCU (52), (last team in) Alabama (59)

First 4 Out: (first team out) Belmont (47), Xavier (67), Indiana (54), Temple (56)

Next 4 Out: Texas (38), Lipscomb (49), Creighton (53), NC-Greensboro (60)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (5): Gonzaga (2), Houston (4)/Cincinnati (25) title game loser, Nevada (23), UCF (30), VCU (34)

First 4 (Dayton) Automatic Qualifiers: Fairleigh Dickinson (203), Prairie View A&M (205), North Dakota State (222), North Carolina Central (302)
 
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Thanks for doing this. Do you have 3 ACC teams getting #1 seeds ?
 

Just from the eye test, the Big 12 seems like the beneficiary of the NET rankings in terms of teams getting bids. Really tough to watch that conference tournament and come to the conclusion that the Big 12 deserves as many bids as the ACC and just one fewer than the B1G 10 and SEC. Obviously that's not how things are done, but it was the first thing that jumped out to me in your projection.

This has to be one of the more difficult years for you to project the bracket with nobody really knowing how much the committee will factor in the NET rankings. Good luck tomorrow and I hope you land another perfect bracket!
 

We ended up with the same field. Hopefully it is because great minds think alike.

Last 4 in: St. John's (last team in), Alabama, Ohio St, TCU
First 4 out: Texas (first team out), Belmont, NC State, Creighton

Have the Gophers as a 9.

I feel pretty confident about this year's field. More so than other years. IMO the bid-stealers made things easier, though I would have liked to have a spot for Belmont. Felt they deserved a bid, but I don't see it. Hope I'm wrong on that one.
 

builtbadgers said:
Thanks for doing this. Do you have 3 ACC teams getting #1 seeds ?
Click to expand...

I don’t do the seeding stuff, but my opinion on #1 seeds would be:

Duke, Virginia & Gonzaga are set.

MSU the 4th #1 if it beats Michigan.

Tennessee the 4th #1 if it beats Auburn and MSU loses.

North Carolina the 4th #1 if MSU & Tennessee both lose Sunday.

I just don’t see how a Big Ten champ with a regular season & postseason championship + 3 wins over Michigan & a boatload of Q1 wins doesn’t get a #1 seed over North Carolina (neither ACC title) or Tennessee.
 


builtbadgers said:
Thanks for doing this. Do you have 3 ACC teams getting #1 seeds ?
Click to expand...

I don’t do the seeding stuff, but my opinion on #1 seeds would be:

Duke, Virginia & Gonzaga are set.

MSU the 4th #1 if it beats Michigan.

Tennessee the 4th #1 if it beats Auburn and MSU loses.

North Carolina the 4th #1 if MSU & Tennessee both lose Sunday.

I just don’t see how a Big Ten champ with a regular season & postseason championship + 3 wins over Michigan & a boatload of Q1 wins doesn’t get a #1 seed over North Carolina (won neither ACC title) or Tennessee.
 

EG#9 said:
Just from the eye test, the Big 12 seems like the beneficiary of the NET rankings in terms of teams getting bids. Really tough to watch that conference tournament and come to the conclusion that the Big 12 deserves as many bids as the ACC and just one fewer than the B1G 10 and SEC. Obviously that's not how things are done, but it was the first thing that jumped out to me in your projection.

This has to be one of the more difficult years for you to project the bracket with nobody really knowing how much the committee will factor in the NET rankings. Good luck tomorrow and I hope you land another perfect bracket!
Click to expand...

Thanks EG. I found this year difficult largely for the reasons you stated. How are they truly going to use the NET? We’re about to find out!
 

I'm happy to see NC St so far below the cutline and I hope the committee agrees. I take it you value ASU's quality wins much more than their bad losses? Interesting to see you have them ahead of Washington.
 

Lunardi has us a #9 against Syracuse in Gonazaga's bracket. I would take that.
 




matt said:
I'm happy to see NC St so far below the cutline and I hope the committee agrees. I take it you value ASU's quality wins much more than their bad losses? Interesting to see you have them ahead of Washington.
Click to expand...

A few bad losses don’t bother me as long as there are enough quality wins to counter them. I think that’s the case with ASU.
 

Does anyone worry that the NCAA might take NET really, really seriously to legitimize it in its first year? As in the Gophers might miss out based on NET rank but Ohio State or Indiana (or Penn State!) jumps them?

Are the bracketologist types playing too much by the old rules? Or will the committee listen to the public which mostly views NET as deeply flawed?
 

Pasting a copy of mine with seeds.

Just pasting this for the record with seeds included, but seeds are not placed in order (Duke over NC for example).


Seed - Team
# 1 - Virginia
# 1 - Duke
# 1 - North Carolina
# 1 - Tennessee
# 2 - Gonzaga
# 2 - Kentucky
# 2 - Michigan State
# 2 - Michigan
# 3 - LSU
# 3 - Houston
# 3 - Kansas
# 3 - Florida State
# 4 - Texas Tech
# 4 - Purdue
# 4 - Kansas State
# 4 - Wisconsin

# 5 - Marquette
# 5 - Auburn
# 5 - Virginia Tech
# 5 - Maryland
# 6 - Villanova
# 6 - Buffalo
# 6 - Cincinnati
# 6 - Wofford
# 7 - Mississippi State
# 7 - Nevada
# 7 - Iowa State
# 7 - Iowa
# 8 - Louisville
# 8 - UCF
# 8 - Seton Hall
# 8 - Temple

# 9 - VCU
# 9 - Washington
# 9 - Minnesota
# 9 - Ohio State
# 10 - Syracuse
# 10 - Arizona State
# 10 - Utah State
# 10 - Baylor
# 11 - Alabama
# 11 - Ole Miss
# 11 - TCU
# 11 - Saint John's
# 12 - Florida
# 12 - Oregon
# 12 - Saint Mary's College
# 12 - New Mexico State
# 12 - Murray State
# 12 - UC Irvine

# 13 - St. Louis
# 13 - Liberty
# 13 - Northeastern
# 13 - Old Dominion
# 14 - Vermont
# 14 - Yale or Harvard
# 14 - Georgia State
# 14 - Northern Kentucky
# 15 - Montana
# 15 - Colgate
# 15 - Abilene Christian
# 15 - Bradley
# 16 - Gardner-Webb
# 16 - Prairie View A&M
# 16 - North Dakota State
# 16 - Iona
# 16 - Fairleigh Dickinson
# 16 - North Carolina Central

Last four in:
#11 - Alabama
# 11 - Ole Miss
# 11 - TCU
# 12 - Florida

First Five Out:
Indiana
NC State
Oklahoma
Belmont
 
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It appears Palm and Lunardi selected the exact same teams.

The only difference I have with them is they have Temple, I took Alabama.
 

V
Face The Facts said:
Pasting a copy of mine with seeds.

Just pasting this for the record with seeds included, but seeds are not placed in order (Duke over NC for example).


Seed - Team
# 1 - Virginia
# 1 - Duke
# 1 - North Carolina
# 1 - Tennessee
# 2 - Gonzaga
# 2 - Kentucky
# 2 - Michigan State
# 2 - Michigan
# 3 - LSU
# 3 - Houston
# 3 - Kansas
# 3 - Florida State
# 4 - Texas Tech
# 4 - Purdue
# 4 - Kansas State
# 4 - Wisconsin

# 5 - Marquette
# 5 - Auburn
# 5 - Virginia Tech
# 5 - Maryland
# 6 - Villanova
# 6 - Buffalo
# 6 - Cincinnati
# 6 - Wofford
# 7 - Mississippi State
# 7 - Nevada
# 7 - Iowa State
# 7 - Iowa
# 8 - Louisville
# 8 - UCF
# 8 - Seton Hall
# 8 - Temple

# 9 - VCU
# 9 - Washington
# 9 - Minnesota
# 9 - Ohio State
# 10 - Syracuse
# 10 - Arizona State
# 10 - Utah State
# 10 - Baylor
# 11 - Atl 10 Winner
# 11 - Ole Miss
# 11 - TCU
# 11 - Saint John's
# 12 - Florida
# 12 - Oregon
# 12 - Saint Mary's College
# 12 - New Mexico State
# 12 - Murray State
# 12 - UC Irvine

# 13 - Davidson
# 13 - Liberty
# 13 - Northeastern
# 13 - Old Dominion
# 14 - Vermont
# 14 - Yale or Harvard
# 14 - Georgia State
# 14 - Northern Kentucky
# 15 - Montana
# 15 - Colgate
# 15 - Abilene Christian
# 15 - Bradley
# 16 - Gardner-Webb
# 16 - Prairie View A&M
# 16 - North Dakota State
# 16 - Iona
# 16 - Fairleigh Dickinson
# 16 - North Carolina Central

Last four in:
#11 - St. Johns
# 11 - Ole Miss
# 11 - TCU
# 12 - Florida

First Five Out:
Alabama
Indiana
NC State
Oklahoma
Belmont
Click to expand...

It appears we differ on 2. You have Temple and Davidson, in their place I have Alabama and Oklahoma.
 

fmlizard said:
Does anyone worry that the NCAA might take NET really, really seriously to legitimize it in its first year? As in the Gophers might miss out based on NET rank but Ohio State or Indiana (or Penn State!) jumps them?

Are the bracketologist types playing too much by the old rules? Or will the committee listen to the public which mostly views NET as deeply flawed?
Click to expand...

The committee is not going to listen to to the public no matter what. That would be a titanic disaster. They will use NET as a tool, not the only tool.
 

Hmmm..... no mention of Middle Tennessee State. That's good.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

Selection how many times have you picked every team correctly?
 

builtbadgers said:
The committee is not going to listen to to the public no matter what. That would be a titanic disaster. They will use NET as a tool, not the only tool.
Click to expand...

Agree that they won’t listen to the public, but they need to consider actual wins. It would be a titanic disaster to put too much weight in an obviously flawed metric just because they assumed it would be better. They have too admit the flaw and fix it.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

I tend to agree with SelectionSunday over Facethefacts’ picks today
 

builtbadgers said:
The committee is not going to listen to to the public no matter what. That would be a titanic disaster. They will use NET as a tool, not the only tool.
Click to expand...

Agree. The point here is that the NET may be a fine efficiency tool, but has now been proven to be a very POOR ranking tool for tournament selection. Way too many teams undeserving of tournament selection with higher NET scores than teams with much better resumes who are deserving of selection. Wins and losses should be a MUCH higher factor in any ranking than efficiency. End of discussion. If you argue again otherwise, you will lose any remaining credibility you may still have on this forum.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 


SelectionSunday said:
V

It appears we differ on 2. You have Temple and Davidson, in their place I have Alabama and Oklahoma.
Click to expand...

I've got too many ATL10 teams so I made the edit.
St. Louis is in. Davidson out.
I added Alabama back in who was my first out.
We disagree on Temple and Alabama.
 

SS, thank you for all the work this season! I really enjoyed all the analysis about the Gophers, Big Ten, and the bracket.
 

fmlizard said:
Does anyone worry that the NCAA might take NET really, really seriously to legitimize it in its first year? As in the Gophers might miss out based on NET rank but Ohio State or Indiana (or Penn State!) jumps them?

Are the bracketologist types playing too much by the old rules? Or will the committee listen to the public which mostly views NET as deeply flawed?
Click to expand...

I think there is a 10% chance they will hide behind the NET as a holy grail and leave us out. There is no way a team like Penn State makes it. But yes, I could see them putting Indiana ahead of us and hiding behind the NET as the reason.
 

gregbrady said:
With their zone defense? No thanks, we struggle against zone.
Click to expand...

I get that concern, but we beat Washington. I just don't think Syracuse is that good, one win over Duke aside.
 

Bordergopher said:
Agree. The point here is that the NET may be a fine efficiency tool, but has now been proven to be a very POOR ranking tool for tournament selection. Way too many teams undeserving of tournament selection with higher NET scores than teams with much better resumes who are deserving of selection. Wins and losses should be a MUCH higher factor in any ranking than efficiency. End of discussion. If you argue again otherwise, you will lose any remaining credibility you may still have on this forum.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

The components may be fine. The weights are not. It appears to be 80% based on your net +/- which is pointless.
 


Belmont and Temple in. Commence mild heartburn.
 

So...if we get to the 2nd round we get MSU? What happened to the no inter-conference match-ups before Sweet 16 rule?
 

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