"Gophers can't shoot threes" is a MYTH!!!

[bfast]

Last year, the Gophers were ranked 194th nationally in three-point percentage (34.6%). In college basketball, where the three is paramount because of the shorter range, that's absolutely crippling.

This year's team will shoot at least 38% from three on the year - easily. This 38% worst-case scenario number would put them in or around the top 50 nationally.

5 of 30 from three-point range vs. Boston College was similar to the 1 for 30 shooting night Wiggins and Covington combined on for the Wolves last week. It was a garbage performance that should be criticized, but it was more of a lighting-in-a-bottle fluke night from the field than a "coming back down to earth" or overall trend.

In their previous five games before BC, the Gophers were shooting 39.8% from three (tied for 46th nationally), with three of their games away from their own gym. Five games is enough of a sample size to think that their season-long clip will be somewhere around that 39% number. Even if they had managed to shoot well below their average at 33% vs. BC (10-30), that would have been 15 extra points!

This fluke off night was especially back-breaking because BC's zone necessitated winning the game with the three ball, which is why we saw 30 attempts.

This year's team would win this away vs. BC match-up 8 out of 10 times, but apparently the Gophers had to pay the piper for their axe luck . Glad the team got a fluke night out of the way in non-conference. Forget about this one and stay the course.

 

[builtbadgers]

Well presented. It was a poor shooting night that every team has. The only way to survive is a blood letting defense that holds that team to 50. Losses bring out all the doubters but the actual competitors and coaches learn from them.

 

[GopherNation]

Last year, the Gophers were ranked 194th nationally in three-point percentage (34.6%). In college basketball, where the three is paramount because of the shorter range, that's absolutely crippling.

This year's team will shoot at least 38% from three on the year - easily. This 38% worst-case scenario number would put them in or around the top 50 nationally.

5 of 30 from three-point range vs. Boston College was similar to the 1 for 30 shooting night Wiggins and Covington combined on for the Wolves last week. It was a garbage performance that should be criticized, but it was more of a lighting-in-a-bottle fluke night from the field than a "coming back down to earth" or overall trend.

In their previous five games before BC, the Gophers were shooting 39.8% from three (tied for 46th nationally), with three of their games away from their own gym. Five games is enough of a sample size to think that their season-long clip will be somewhere around that 39% number. Even if they had managed to shoot well below their average at 33% vs. BC (10-30), that would have been 15 extra points!

This fluke off night was especially back-breaking because BC's zone necessitated winning the game with the three ball, which is why we saw 30 attempts.

This year's team would win this away vs. BC match-up 8 out of 10 times, but apparently the Gophers had to pay the piper for their axe luck . Glad the team got a fluke night out of the way in non-conference. Forget about this one and stay the course.

You can chalk it up to a fluke night but that's the second game in a row they looked clueless against zone D. The bigger myth is you HAVE to shoot threes against a zone defense. That's not our game, and if we don't adjust this is going to be a rough season.

 

[Winasota Gopher]

You can chalk it up to a fluke night but that's the second game in a row they looked clueless against zone D. The bigger myth is you HAVE to shoot threes against a zone defense. That's not our game, and if we don't adjust this is going to be a rough season.

With literally 2 days of prep combined for both games, and we looked fine in the second half of the Washington game. I'm not too concerned. Pitino hasn't had trouble finding open shots, it's finding guys to hit the open shots that has been the issue.

2 Missed dunks, and a couple threes would have pushed them to look for a different defense.

Off game, onto the next one.

That was a difficult schedule to manage, not surprised they were in a funk, not excusing the effort, but not surprised.

 

[bizzle22]

Outside of Gabe this is not a good three point shooting team. We will not finish top 50 in the country in 3 pt percentage.

The guys who returned this year shot a combined 31.8% from three last year. Mason was our best three point shooter of any guy who took a significant amount of threes last year. (Hurt's percentage was a little higher but he only took 21 3s all year. Anyone who thinks a strategy of lots of Michael Hurt three point attempts is a recipe for success please raise your hand. Now look around the room and see who the crazy people are.)

Last night was obviously a bad shooting night, but I don't know if I'd call it a fluke. Certainly not on the level of 1-30 from Wiggins/Covington -- that was a real fluke. I'd bet there will be another few games this year where we shoot less than 20% from three. I'd be shocked if there was another Wolves game where Wiggins/Covington combine to shoot less than 5% from the field.

There is a reason teams have started to go zone and make us shoot from outside. BC was practically begging McBrayer to take threes last night. And there's no need for opponents to beg Washington to shoot threes because he'll do it anyway. All teams have to do is not lose track of Gabe and the zone works.

 

[Go Gophs]

I mean, I get what you are saying. But let's be honest. The gophers haven't looked great yet this season. They can and will lose some games like this throughout the season. This most likely isn't a top 25 type team headed for LOCK Ncaa status. More likely, they will be a middle of the pack Big Ten team sitting on the bubble come the end of the season. I surely hope I am wrong, but I haven't seen the type of play out of them yet that makes me think they are the type of team we'd love them to be just yet.

 

[JimmyJamesMD]

Coffey and McBrayer really need to step up. Murphy is consistent, but these other 2 upper classmen need to be a part of a three headed monster.

Stull needs to get more clock against the zone.

 

[Jaykay]

Washington and McBrayer are just plain bad shooters. As long as they keep chucking them up, they're going to be a bad shooting team.

 

[bga1]

Washington and McBrayer are just plain bad shooters. As long as they keep chucking them up, they're going to be a bad shooting team.

Both are streak shooters. McBrayer has a history of hot and cold but his stats show that he is a better than average shooter.

2016-17 he was a 41.6 % 3 pt shooter 2017-18 34.3% on a bum leg

Washington is not as good and he is a guy that I would hope takes no more than a few threes each game to keep the defense honest.

I think that when one considers Kalsheuer, McBrayer, Coffey and Stull we have enough three point shooting to be considered average or better.

 

[60's Guy]

Four games in 7 days. A flight from one coast to the other also factor in. The referees were not helpful at all to our inside guys...making us 3 point reliant. While we only have one guy with a stroke, Coffey and McBrayer can shoot 3’s, when open most nights. I think we get to that 50 ish slot for the season.
Forget this one and win Friday!

 

[bizzle22]

Both are streak shooters. McBrayer has a history of hot and cold but his stats show that he is a better than average shooter.

2016-17 he was a 41.6 % 3 pt shooter 2017-18 34.3% on a bum leg

Washington is not as good and he is a guy that I would hope takes no more than a few threes each game to keep the defense honest.

I think that when one considers Kalsheuer, McBrayer, Coffey and Stull we have enough three point shooting to be considered average or better.

McBrayer is a career 34.1% 3 pt shooter
Coffey is a career 34.3% 3 pt shooter
Both of those numbers are below average for any player, especially a guard.

Last year the median team 3 pt percentage in D1 basketball was 35.0 %.

 

[CentralGopher]

Sure it's a myth they can't shoot three's but they certainly couldn't make them last night. They need to adjust the offense to not rely on the three though. That was a great example last night of how not to break down a zone.


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[bga1]

McBrayer is a career 34.1% 3 pt shooter
Coffey is a career 34.3% 3 pt shooter
Both of those numbers are below average for any player, especially a guard.

Last year the median team 3 pt percentage in D1 basketball was 35.0 %.

Okay- so before last night McBrayer was a career .351 3 point shooter, a tiny bit above average. Now after last night's shooting debacle he is a .341 3 point shooter- a tiny bit below average. So now you are saying McBrayer is a below average shooter. I guess that makes you the average Gopher fan.

I think he will have a good year and more good nights than bad ones. My guess is that he ends the year shooting above 35% from 3 point range and that will be just fine.

 

[golfing18now]

McBrayer is a career 34.1% 3 pt shooter
Coffey is a career 34.3% 3 pt shooter
Both of those numbers are below average for any player, especially a guard.

Last year the median team 3 pt percentage in D1 basketball was 35.0 %.

So Dupree would have had to make 3 more of his attempts over his Gophers career to exceed the median you stated. That includes the awful start he had as a freshman. Seems to me he isn't necessarily a bad shooter....he just had a really bad night.

In your opinion, what percentage does a player need to hit to justify the attempts?

 

[bizzle22]

So Dupree would have had to make 3 more of his attempts over his Gophers career to exceed the median you stated. That includes the awful start he had as a freshman. Seems to me he isn't necessarily a bad shooter....he just had a really bad night.

In your opinion, what percentage does a player need to hit to justify the attempts?

That 35% is for an entire team. That would be low for a guard. I'd say around 38% from three is about average for a guard.

In 2017-18 the median three point percentage for B1G players who took at least 2 three point shot attempts per game was 37.3%

Dupree is a below average jump shooter.

 

[bizzle22]

Okay- so before last night McBrayer was a career .351 3 point shooter, a tiny bit above average. Now after last night's shooting debacle he is a .341 3 point shooter- a tiny bit below average. So now you are saying McBrayer is a below average shooter. I guess that makes you the average Gopher fan.

I think he will have a good year and more good nights than bad ones. My guess is that he ends the year shooting above 35% from 3 point range and that will be just fine.

If he's only hitting 34-35% he doesn't need to be taking 5 three pointers per game, definitely not 8. His game is better when he drives to the hoop, and it's better for the team too.

 

[Otis]

You guys are all miss-reading this thread.

Myth: The Gophers can't SHOOT three's. I'm pretty sure they fired up over twenty three point shots last night so this is a myth.

Fact: The Gophers are a POOR three point shooting team. Being below the median is a bad place to be, if I recall my days at the Institute of Technology correctly.

 

[howeda7]

If teams keep deploying zone (and why wouldn't they) we not only need McBreyer to shoot better, but Stull is going to have to play more.

 

[CentralGopher]

You guys are all miss-reading this thread.

Myth: The Gophers can't SHOOT three's. I'm pretty sure they fired up over twenty three point shots last night so this is a myth.

Fact: The Gophers are a POOR three point shooting team. Being below the median is a bad place to be, if I recall my days at the Institute of Technology correctly.

+1


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[gophereric30]

If he's only hitting 34-35% he doesn't need to be taking 5 three pointers per game, definitely not 8. His game is better when he drives to the hoop, and it's better for the team too.

would have been great if he hit 35% last night lol

 

[bga1]

If he's only hitting 34-35% he doesn't need to be taking 5 three pointers per game, definitely not 8. His game is better when he drives to the hoop, and it's better for the team too.

I'll buy that. I think all of these guys have to realize that some nights, they are on and taking 5 3's is okay. Shooting 0-8 is not good and at some point you have to stop. They settled for what the defense freely offered them. McBrayer was wide open on all of those shots- but he was having an off night and needed to be more patient.

As Jim Dutcher used to say about shooting: (before the 3 point shot was in the rule book) It's a good shot if you make it.

 

[GoGophersUMN]

Isn't it funny how our isolated bad games always happen against zone defenses? When we got upset in march madness 2 years ago, that was a zone defense and the offense looked clueless.

Teams have likely already figured that out and will run zone against us. The only reason games like this haven't happened more often is because teams haven't played zone against us often. I bet they will now.

 

[UpAndUnder43]

Isn't it funny how our isolated bad games always happen against zone defenses? When we got upset in march madness 2 years ago, that was a zone defense and the offense looked clueless.

Teams have likely already figured that out and will run zone against us. The only reason games like this haven't happened more often is because teams haven't played zone against us often. I bet they will now.

Not all teams run a zone well. Some teams are excellent at it and practice it a ton. Some run it a few possessions per game to give a different look. Teams who don't run a zone often will not have the same level of success running it.

 

[golfing18now]

That 35% is for an entire team. That would be low for a guard. I'd say around 38% from three is about average for a guard.

In 2017-18 the median three point percentage for B1G players who took at least 2 three point shot attempts per game was 37.3%

Dupree is a below average jump shooter.

Dupree is a streaky shooter that should not have kept shooting last night. They need his scoring one way or another.

 

[indygopher]

Reminds me of the philosophy of a teammate of mine in an over 35 league years ago. "Shoot to get hot, shoot to stay hot", needless to say he liked to shoot.

 

[gophereric30]

Reminds me of the philosophy of a teammate of mine in an over 35 league years ago. "Shoot to get hot, shoot to stay hot", needless to say he liked to shoot.

Like someone said earlier he definately doesnt lack confidence!

 

[RickDornsby]

From the OP: “This year's team would win this away vs. BC match-up 8 out of 10 times, but apparently the Gophers had to pay the piper for their axe luck ”

Is that why BC was favored by 1?

 

[bfast]

You guys are all miss-reading this thread.

Myth: The Gophers can't SHOOT three's. I'm pretty sure they fired up over twenty three point shots last night so this is a myth.

Fact: The Gophers are a POOR three point shooting team. Being below the median is a bad place to be, if I recall my days at the Institute of Technology correctly.

.....

There's nothing "median" about a 40% team 3-point average over the first five games. That'd be top 12 in 2017 and top 40 so far in 2018. That's a damn good 3-point team.

It all comes down to whether you want to judge the returns from five games or one. I'll lean toward the rule and not the outlier.

No, five games doesn't guarantee that they'll stay at or above 40% elite range, but five is a big enough sample size to know that their average isn't going to fall more than a couple of percentage points. 38% is the floor, and even that would be top 50 in the nation. To think it's going to fall to the mediocre 34-35% of last year is laughable.
_

 

[fryguy22]

That 35% is for an entire team. That would be low for a guard. I'd say around 38% from three is about average for a guard.

In 2017-18 the median three point percentage for B1G players who took at least 2 three point shot attempts per game was 37.3%

Dupree is a below average jump shooter.

The fact that 35% is a team's average, and you think that means 38% is the likely average for guards (who take the vast majority of 3s), tells me that you are not great at math.

 

[bizzle22]

The fact that 35% is a team's average, and you think that means 38% is the likely average for guards (who take the vast majority of 3s), tells me that you are not great at math.

I don't think you understand how the math works.

Guards generally make them at a higher rate. The big guys are the ones dragging down the team percentage.

Look at last years top ten 3 point shooters in the B1G...all guards.

I checked and the median 3pt % for B1G guards was 37.2% last year so my guess was not far off.