Work to do......the last 11 games

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Gopherbbdude

Gopherbbdude

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So we have 11 games left and I believe we need at least a 9-9 B10 record.
Here are the last 11 games and what I think we can do.

at MD...L
neutral OSU....L
Home NWU....W
at Iowa....W
At Mich....L
Home Neb.....W
at Ind......W
Home MSU....L
At WI.....W
home Iowa....W
at Purdue....L

we end up 9-9 in B10 play and 20-11 overall.

thoughts?
 

Gopherbbdude said:
So we have 11 games left and I believe we need at least a 9-9 B10 record.
Here are the last 11 games and what I think we can do.

at MD...L
neutral OSU....L
Home NWU....W
at Iowa....W
At Mich....L
Home Neb.....W
at Ind......W
Home MSU....L
At WI.....W
home Iowa....W
at Purdue....L

we end up 9-9 in B10 play and 20-11 overall.

thoughts?
Click to expand...

The only chance for a steal in my opinion is Maryland. They are having similar issues as we are. Lost 3 of 4 with depth issues and playing guys that arent ready, along with a huge loss with injury. I love your optimism, and with the BIG down this year 6 more wins is possible, but im sure there will be more stumbling blocks than we think and probably come up short of 9 wins! I hope im wrong! Would love that Indiana game back.
 

I think your projection is very possible even if Coffey is done for the year. If we get Coffey back and continue to play like we did last night...then I think a win at Michigan is at least possible. Even Michigan State has looked vulnerable at home this year.

Last night was a great start, but we will need to get that kind of effort every night to have a shot in any of the games. I'm cautiously optimistic.



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To get back on the bubble, I think they need to get to 10-8 and somehow win at least 2 of OSU, MSU, @Michigan, @Purdue. I give them almost no shot at Purdue so that's a tough order. At least getting a split of the next two is huge IMO.
 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the tournament committee would give the Gophers serious consideration if Coffee came back, and we looked good again. But I guess it would depend if/when Coffee could come back. Not holding my breath on Lynch. But a 9-9 record (even in a down year in the Big Ten) could get the Gophers in the dance if that included a win over MSU with Coffee returning, then a solid finish to the regular season. I think back to Iowa 10 years ago or so when they finished with a 7-9 record because of injuries, but had a couple of their big-time players return just before the dance. The NCAA even gave them a pretty good seed as well. However, the Big Ten was pretty dang good that year if I remember.

At this point, an NCAA tournament berth is very slim, but I just hope this team can at least remain competitive (like last night) the rest of the year.
 


I would rather see us go 8-10 with Coffey coming back for the final two games of the regular season. Then have the University clear Reggie due to the discovery of a never before mentioned twin brother of his, who was responsible for all the bad stuff. (It happens on TV!)

Gophers then win the B1G tourney for the first time to get the automatic berth in the tourney!

BTW, I prefer to never see Reggie in Maroon & Gold again.
 

I would rather see us go 8-10 with Coffey coming back for the final two games of the regular season. Then have the University clear Reggie due to the discovery of a never before mentioned twin brother of his, who was responsible for all the bad stuff. (It happens on TV!)

Gophers then win the B1G tourney for the first time to get the automatic berth in the tourney!

BTW, I prefer to never see Reggie in Maroon & Gold again.
 

We are 2-6 against the top 100. We will not make the tourney if we are 5-10 against the top 100. 10-8 Would fall short unless 3 wins are against OSU, MSU, UM and or PURDUE. We have 9 wins over sub 150 teams out of 14 ! Losing to IU makes beating Maryland a must. There are just so many truly horrible teams in the conference.
 

gopherguy15 said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the tournament committee would give the Gophers serious consideration if Coffee came back, and we looked good again. But I guess it would depend if/when Coffee could come back. Not holding my breath on Lynch. But a 9-9 record (even in a down year in the Big Ten) could get the Gophers in the dance if that included a win over MSU with Coffee returning, then a solid finish to the regular season. I think back to Iowa 10 years ago or so when they finished with a 7-9 record because of injuries, but had a couple of their big-time players return just before the dance. The NCAA even gave them a pretty good seed as well. However, the Big Ten was pretty dang good that year if I remember.

At this point, an NCAA tournament berth is very slim, but I just hope this team can at least remain competitive (like last night) the rest of the year.
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I agree with your last point. Just want them to be competitive and hopefully that will lead to a few more Ws. The shock of the Lynch situation followed by the Coffey injury is wearing off and hopefully the more senior players have regained their composure and competitive fire. Thats good enough for me in this bizarre year.
 



They need to win 10 or 11 Big Ten games to get in, or win the the tournament. Also, I get people think last night was good and all, but it took them overtime to beat Penn State. Realize, any team worth their salt goes in there and stomps that team. I see it more likely they lose 10 or 11 than win them. Wish I didn't have to say that, but it is what it is at this point. If they had gone in there and pounded Penn State or if they win their next 2, I will start back with some optimism. Until then, last nights win comes in as a squeaker against a perennial doormat.
 

NIT is the reasonable goal now

Whether Coffey returns or not (I'm doubtful), I think the reasonable goal now is to get a NIT bid. Not anywhere near what we expected prior to the season, but "it is what it is" since the Lynch-Coffey losses. My guess is that means getting to 7-11 (18-13 overall) in the Big Ten. Wouldn't hurt to win a game or two in Madison Square Garden, either.

Have to think with the Big 10 likely only getting 4 NCAA bids, there will somewhere between 2-4 Big 10 teams in the NIT as long as they finish above .500 overall and in the top 80-90 of the RPI. Right now that probably means some combination of the Gophers, Maryland, Nebraska, and Northwestern.
 

win the next 2 and it could get fun again. lets go
 

With our glaring weaknesses I can see one win and perhaps 3 others. That's just being honest. Of course I wish they would win all of them.
Realistically we will go to a tourney below the NIT, but we certainly have a chance for the NIT.
Truth, I am just looking to see improvement in underclassmen. A win is just a bonus.
 



The Gophers have no shot at the NCAA with a 9-9 record, especially under the scenario you laid out. I don't think any of the projected wins would end up being a top 50 rpi win and there'd just not be enough quality wins to even really be considered on Selection Sunday. I do think the expectation for this team should be a minimum of 8-10 provided there are no more significant injuries and Coffey remains out. Win your home remaining home games except MSU and then win on the road against the two teams you are clearly more talented than in Iowa and Wisconsin. That's 8 wins right there. That should be the expectation, not the goal. If you can meet that expectation, then you look at winning @Indiana and hoping to get a resume win: home against MSU or @ Purdue. If those two things happen, then you can make a case that the Gophers could sneak in provided they don't take a bad loss in the BTT and the bubble gets weaker instead of stronger as the conference tournaments happen. It's obviously incredibly unlikely and the only way I could even see this happening is that if Purdue has the B1G wrapped up before that last game and the Gophers are 9-8 or better and have everything on the line. Maybe there is such a gap in motivation for that game that the Gophers could get that victory. I'd sooner put money on the Gophers missing the NIT than wager on them playing in the real tournament unfortunately.
 

We’d need to have a .500 or winning conference record to go to the NIT (it’s a rule). Both tournaments are unlikely.

6-4 is the worst record we can have the rest of the way to make the NIT.
 

RickDornsby said:
We’d need to have a .500 or winning conference record to go to the NIT (it’s a rule).
Click to expand...

I'm not sure your statement reflects what you are trying to say. Your statement says that the team must be .500 or better in its conference. That certainly was not the rule in the past as it would have eliminated most power conference teams from the NIT. In general (although not always), Big Ten teams in the NIT over the last couple of decades have had sub-.500 conference records.

On the other hand, it is fairly easy for a power conference team to have a .500 or better overall record. We still have a pretty fair shot of achieving that.
 

RickDornsby said:
We’d need to have a .500 or winning conference record to go to the NIT (it’s a rule). Both tournaments are unlikely.

6-4 is the worst record we can have the rest of the way to make the NIT.
Click to expand...

I agree that we would need to go 6-4 the rest of the way (or better IMO with how bad the B1G is this year) to even make the NIT. However, there is no rule that a team must go .500 or better in their conference to make the NIT. The only qualification rule I am aware of for the NIT is that you get an automatic bid if you win your conference regular season and do not qualify for the NCAA tourney.
 

I guess that .500 record (and it was overall) was confusion on a previous rule that was removed. Nevermind.
 

I would be ecstatic with 4-6 the rest of the way. 3-7 would be okay, and is my expectation. 2-8 wouldn't surprise me in the least, but would be crappy. 1-9 would be bad and a terrible farewell for Mason. 0-10, unspeakable, dreadful, putrid, but possible.

This is all with Coffey out of course. Expectations much different with him in the lineup.
 

Gopherbbdude said:
So we have 11 games left and I believe we need at least a 9-9 B10 record.
Here are the last 11 games and what I think we can do.

at MD...L
neutral OSU....L
Home NWU....W
at Iowa....W
At Mich....L
Home Neb.....W
at Ind......W
Home MSU....L
At WI.....W
home Iowa....W
at Purdue....L

we end up 9-9 in B10 play and 20-11 overall.

thoughts?
Click to expand...

Can I have some of what you're smoking? I hope you did this with a minimum of Coffey back in the line-up.
 

100% so far[emoji16]

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

If we lose to Iowa and northwestern in the next two...we won’t win another game.
 

1. Stop letting opponents go on double digit runs.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

Some guy said:
If we lose to Iowa and northwestern in the next two...we won’t win another game.
Click to expand...

Considering that Collins is 3-0 vs. Pitino at Williams arena, I wouldn't put any money down on a Gopher victory in that one.
 

RickDornsby said:
We’d need to have a .500 or winning conference record to go to the NIT (it’s a rule). Both tournaments are unlikely.

6-4 is the worst record we can have the rest of the way to make the NIT.
Click to expand...

That's not true. If that were the case, you'd never have any power 6 teams in the NIT. You don't even have to have a .500 conference record to make the NCAA's. You have to have a .500 record overall, not in conference. They probably need 18 wins to make the NIT, which would mean 7-11 in the B1G.
 



howeda7 said:
That's not true. If that were the case, you'd never have any power 6 teams in the NIT. You don't even have to have a .500 conference record to make the NCAA's. You have to have a .500 record overall, not in conference. They probably need 18 wins to make the NIT, which would mean 7-11 in the B1G.
Click to expand...

Yes, I corrected it. Misread some of the rules that were abolished a few years ago anyways.
 

howeda7 said:
That's not true. If that were the case, you'd never have any power 6 teams in the NIT. You don't even have to have a .500 conference record to make the NCAA's. You have to have a .500 record overall, not in conference. They probably need 18 wins to make the NIT, which would mean 7-11 in the B1G.
Click to expand...

I don't think we even get a sniff from the NIT with that record unless we were to win a minimum of 2 in the conference tourney.

The B1G is only going to get 4-5 teams in the big dance this year. 7-11 in conference would put us about 9th or 10th in the B1G. The NIT typically takes between 1-3 B1G teams. So with that record we'd need to jump at least one or two teams to get a bid. Obviously the NIT doesn't just look at the conference standings to make selections, but I wouldn't expect to make it at 7-11. I don't even think 9-9 would guarantee a NIT bid, and we can forget about the NCAA tourney at 9-9 unless we did some serious damage in the conference tourney.
 

I expect us to lose our first round game in the B1G Tourney and then sit at home wondering why the NIT didn't give us a tourney slot.

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