For what it'a worth, Souhan

[freshtrout]

on Rosen's show last night made this comment .... "If Brewster loses his job in the next year, it's because he changed offensive coordinators without the blessings of Joel Maturi"..Is this old news .. new news ... or crap?? He went on to say how the pro-style change has hurt Weber, and how Weber was more effective in the spread offense..Souhan's comments regarding the Viking game (previous to the Gopher comments) made little sense, so I'm leaning that he's not in the loop regarding this ....

 

[MaxyJR1]

He made the same comment this morning that if Brewster loses his job it is because of the OC position change. Not sure where I stand, but does anyone else think Maturi might try to do what he did with basketball and get a big name? I know people believe Tubby fell in his lap, but I'll take it.

 

[Iceland12]

on Rosen's show last night made this comment .... "If Brewster loses his job in the next year, it's because he changed offensive coordinators without the blessings of Joel Maturi"..Is this old news .. new news ... or crap?? He went on to say how the pro-style change has hurt Weber, and how Weber was more effective in the spread offense..Souhan's comments regarding the Viking game (previous to the Gopher comments) made little sense, so I'm leaning that he's not in the loop regarding this ....

Probably pure speculation. What AD in the country would be happy paying a Assistant Coach not to coach, but wins/losses will have way more to do with Brewster's job status then Dunbar will.

 

[Rotundo]

I am sure it is speculation but it is totally reasonable to think that the Dunbar situation and expense is a checkmark in the negative column of Brewsters evaluation.

 

[grunkiejr]

He made the same comment this morning that if Brewster loses his job it is because of the OC position change. Not sure where I stand, but does anyone else think Maturi might try to do what he did with basketball and get a big name? I know people believe Tubby fell in his lap, but I'll take it.

Two questions:
1) Do you know how much it costs to get a big name in football? Ferentz is making over $3mm, Saban over $4mm, etc. Meanwhile Brewster is making ~$1mm.

2) What convinces anyone that we have the resources to help a big name coach build a winner here? There has to be a reason he will jump ship and part of that will no doubt be the belief he can be successful.
In-state recruiting territory--FAIL
Football budget--FAIL
Deep pocketed booster that wants to build a winner (Phil Knight/T. Boone Pickens)--FAIL
Recruits view program as tradition rich--FAIL.

TCF Bank Stadium is great but it just puts us on par with other schools facilities because our practice facilities/weight room are still below average for BCS schools.

For all the people pissed off about the PSU loss or only being 4-3 at this point in the season take a step back and evaluate where we are today versus where we were in 2006. Our defense is greatly improved. Our special teams is greatly improved. Our offense isn't as good as we were in 2006 (although a lot of the talent on that team was upper class and the lower classmen--today's upper classmen weren't as talented). Our talent level and athleticism is improved and that is most visible by watching the success of our special teams. Progress is being made but program building takes time. Be patient and lets make sure we see this through because firing Brewster and hiring a new coach will just start the process over.

 

[MaxyJR1]

Two questions:
1) Do you know how much it costs to get a big name in football? Ferentz is making over $3mm, Saban over $4mm, etc. Meanwhile Brewster is making ~$1mm.

2) What convinces anyone that we have the resources to help a big name coach build a winner here? There has to be a reason he will jump ship and part of that will no doubt be the belief he can be successful.
In-state recruiting territory--FAIL
Football budget--FAIL
Deep pocketed booster that wants to build a winner (Phil Knight/T. Boone Pickens)--FAIL
Recruits view program as tradition rich--FAIL.

TCF Bank Stadium is great but it just puts us on par with other schools facilities because our practice facilities/weight room are still below average for BCS schools.

For all the people pissed off about the PSU loss or only being 4-3 at this point in the season take a step back and evaluate where we are today versus where we were in 2006. Our defense is greatly improved. Our special teams is greatly improved. Our offense isn't as good as we were in 2006 (although a lot of the talent on that team was upper class and the lower classmen--today's upper classmen weren't as talented). Our talent level and athleticism is improved and that is most visible by watching the success of our special teams. Progress is being made but program building takes time. Be patient and lets make sure we see this through because firing Brewster and hiring a new coach will just start the process over.

Can't say I disagree, that is why I think he should stick with Brewster and this core of coaches as long as he can. Mason was here 10 years and brought respectibility. Hopefully Brewster can build on that with the guys he chooses to bring in.

 

[Goldmember]

The Gophers could still finnish 7-5, or maybe even 8-4 with and upset. I like our odds of winning our bowl game from there.

Considering the difficulty of schedule, this would be the best season since 2003.

 

[Firejumper]

I think Souhan's comment is along the same lines as a comment Reusse made on the Mike Max/Sid/Dark Star show (forget the name of the show) about 2 weeks ago. Reusse stated that Brew was told (by Maturi) "Do not fire Dunbar" and then Maturi went to Grand Forks and while he was gone, Brewster fired Dunbar.

 

[Maximus]

For all the people pissed off about the PSU loss or only being 4-3 at this point in the season take a step back and evaluate where we are today versus where we were in 2006. Our defense is greatly improved. Our special teams is greatly improved. Our offense isn't as good as we were in 2006 (although a lot of the talent on that team was upper class and the lower classmen--today's upper classmen weren't as talented).

Total Defense
2006: 113th in the nation
2007: 119th in the nation
2008: 80th in the nation
2009: 92nd in the nation
PROGRESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

3rd Down Conversion defense
2006: 116th in the nation
2007: 97th in the nation
2008: 61st in the nation
2009: 115th in the nation
PROGRESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Did anyone envision on the day Brewster was hired that his team would rank last in the conference in total offense and total defense - league games only - by year three?

 

[Khaliq]

For all the people pissed off about the PSU loss or only being 4-3 at this point in the season take a step back and evaluate where we are today versus where we were in 2006. Our defense is greatly improved.

I think taking a step back is a good idea, but when you try to substantiate the claim that the 2009 Gophers' defense is greatly improved over the 2006 Gophers the numbers really don't bear that out:

Third Down Conversion Allowed
2009 50.91%
2006 48.80%

Yards Per Game allowed
2009 393.00
2006 426.38

Yards Per Carry Allowed
2009 3.91
2006 4.24

Yards Per Pass Attempt Allowed
2009 7.10
2006 8.03

Interception Percentage
2009 2.22%
2006 3.92%

Sacks Per Game
2009 1.71
2006 1.92

The more stats you pull and the more you compare I think you'll find the 2009 defense is roughly on par with the 2006 defense. There are some areas where the 2009 version of the Gophers is slightly better, and there are some areas where the 2006 Gophers are slightly better but none of the differences strike me as statistically significant and I'm not seeing a case here to say that the defense is greatly improved.

Furthermore the 2009 Gophers' numbers are boosted a bit by still having a lot of tough schedule left to go. Odds are those numbers won't improve with Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa left on the schedule.

 

[doctor j]

Brewster

All of the discussion re Tim Brewster is entirely off the mark. Tim Brewster has brought more excitement, and more commitment to this program then any MN football coach that I've seen in the last 25 years (Lou Holtz excepted). The recruiting that Glen Mason did in his last 2 years at MN was abominable! Now we see starred recruits routinely. On recruiting grounds alone Brewster deserves a contract extension. On generating excitement for the program he deserves an extension. His current choice of offensive/defensive coordinators IS questionable--very pedestrian offensive schemes and a defense that plays so softly that any playground athlete could pick it apart. He still has a chance to create a MN program that can compete with anyone.

 

[Khaliq]

On recruiting grounds alone Brewster deserves a contract extension. On generating excitement for the program he deserves an extension.

Extension? I think the positives you mentioned earn him the right to finish out his deal, but until the results translate themselves onto better on field performance I think talk of an extension is just as premature as talk of his firing.

 

[MaxyJR1]

I think taking a step back is a good idea, but when you try to substantiate the claim that the 2009 Gophers' defense is greatly improved over the 2006 Gophers the numbers really don't bear that out:



The more stats you pull and the more you compare I think you'll find the 2009 defense is roughly on par with the 2006 defense. .

2009 Schedule does not include Kent State and Temple, which we shut out in 2006. Temple was 2-15 on 3rd down.

 

[Khaliq]

2009 Schedule does not include Kent State and Temple, which we shut out in 2006. Temple was 2-15 on 3rd down.

Even if you normalize for that I'm not sure how you can argue this is a greatly improved unit. I'd say that balances out not having Ohio State et al on the books yet.

 

[monk10]

Third Down Conversion Allowed
2009 50.91%
2006 48.80%

I don't want to start a new thread, but these numbers are really getting to me. Our LB's are making more tackles then in years pass, which to me implies that they are better players then what we had before (maybe faster to get sideline to sideline). But when you can't get 3 and outs like PSU's team, do you really look at tackles as a measurement of which LB unit is better? Maybe it should be number of tackles per number of offensive plays?

 

[Khaliq]

Generally if your LBs have a lot of tackles that can be a function of the defensive line not stopping enough at the first level. Tackles in general are a pretty poor metric for defensive performance, unfortunately you have to look at the more aggregate numbers I think.

 

[gophermartin]

You can do it that way...or you will sabatoge his recruiting for this class in Feb an beyond.

They have to structure a deal that is little risk to both sides...if they don't make a bowl game this year....that still gives him an extension and allows him to recruit.

Their might be a buyout needed if my year 6 there is no improvement...but welcome to big time football. Buyouts are part of firing a coach if you feel that is what is needed.

GM

 

[Governor Sibley]

Reusse stated that Brew was told (by Maturi) "Do not fire Dunbar" and then Maturi went to Grand Forks and while he was gone, Brewster fired Dunbar.

If that's true, that's a big deal. Anywhere else in the world, you're canned for that.

 

[Nine]

Figures lie and liers figure

You can't look at stats on one side of the ball without looking at the other.

The Purdue game we had TD scoring drives of zero yards (blocked kick TD), 2 yards (Campbell int), 30 yards (fumble kick return) and 35 yards. We also had Stoudermire take it past for 40 each time. Point being, we destroyed Purdue but were NOT loading up on stats.

The Penn State game, the offense stunk it up and we never had the ball. In other words, the yards the defense gave up were A LOT more because of the offense not keeping the ball.

Mason's offense was a defense's best friend. They kept the ball and chewed up clock. Our terrible defenses didn't look as bad on paper because of this.

Our current defense is MUCH improved.

Our offense is not.

Fix the OL and running game and the defense will look much, much better.

Giving up 20 points while being on the field 90% of the time is a pretty damn good accomplishment, even though we were not good getting off the field on 3rd down.

stats don't tell the story

 

[monk10]

There seems to be a lot of factors. For example I'm guessing Theret got some Big Ten honors last year b/c of the number of tackles he makes. I think Triplet has been an upgrade over Davis/Hightower, and therefore Theret doesn't have to make as many plays around the line of scrimmage. However, does that mean Theret is worse now just b/c he doesn't get the same opportunities?

Navorro Bowman had 8 tackles yesterday. We were only on offense for what 40 plays. Lee Campbell had 13 tackles. PSU had something like 75 plays. So Bowman was part of something like 20% of the defensive stops for PSU. Campbell around 17%. At the end of the day, if you projected that out, you would see that Campbell would get a ton more tackles, and the perception would be that campbell is a better LB the Bowman.

There is a lot more that goes into this like scheme, and opportunity, but there was talk last week of Campbell being an all-big ten candidate. However given how much we abandoned the run, and Bowman was still making tackles, would imply he would be a better LB? I'm not sure though. I'm thinking out loud now. I just am really hating these 3rd down %, and think they should be an indicator when our defense has finally turned the corner of what we would say is typical Minnesota defense(paper thin).

 

[monk10]

You can't look at stats on one side of the ball without looking at the other.

The Purdue game we had TD scoring drives of zero yards (blocked kick TD), 2 yards (Campbell int), 30 yards (fumble kick return) and 35 yards. We also had Stoudermire take it past for 40 each time. Point being, we destroyed Purdue but were NOT loading up on stats.

The Penn State game, the offense stunk it up and we never had the ball. In other words, the yards the defense gave up were A LOT more because of the offense not keeping the ball.

Mason's offense was a defense's best friend. They kept the ball and chewed up clock. Our terrible defenses didn't look as bad on paper because of this.

Our current defense is MUCH improved.

Our offense is not.

Fix the OL and running game and the defense will look much, much better.

Giving up 20 points while being on the field 90% of the time is a pretty damn good accomplishment, even though we were not good getting off the field on 3rd down.

stats don't tell the story

I don't mind seeing 3-0 wins . I would love for our defense to shut people down no matter how bad our offense is. If our 3rd down conversion rate got drastically worse in the 4th quarter, then I would think that "being on the field too long" would be more viable. The problem is that they punted once in the first quarter (after the short field position on the pick), and didn't punt again until the 3rd quarter. Even though our offense stunk, our Special Teams did a great job of putting the ball on the other side of the field. I want our defense to be able to stand alone and not have to be protected by a ball control offense. I'll take all the block punts, block field goals, fumbles, and ints returned for touchdowns, and still expect the defense to go out there and shut a team down.

 

[scools12]

IMO the true test of a defense is total points allowed. Doesn't matter if a team runs up and down on the field against you as along as you don't allow TD's.

2007 36.7 points per game
2008 24.8 points per game
2009 23.3 points per game - this year basically the same as last year at this point of the season.

what is alarming though (as was during the wacker and mason years) is the inability of the defense to get off the field on 3rd down.

 

[monk10]

IMO the true test of a defense is total points allowed. Doesn't matter if a team runs up and down on the field against you as along as you don't allow TD's.

2007 36.7 points per game
2008 24.8 points per game
2009 23.3 points per game - this year basically the same as last year at this point of the season.

what is alarming though (as was during the wacker and mason years) is the inability of the defense to get off the field on 3rd down.

I have to agree that PPG should be the number one statistic that is measured. Having an opportunistic defense that has low 3rd down completion numbers but high PPG (read they give up TD's on first and second down from big plays) is worse then lower PPG and higher 3rd down completion %.

When an offense struggles, you can put them in a good position by playing the field position game. We aren't able to do that right now. Our punter was an MVP yesterday, but we couldn't keep the Field position battle since our defense couldn't get off the field.

 

[Too Long in the Wasteland]

I won't argue that our LB's are much more talented and athletic than in years past. I still have acid flashbacks to the 2003 michigan game where our LB's couldn't cover SCum's RB on that pass play they ran 15 times in a row.

Somebody on your team eventually tackles the guy with the ball, or the result is a TD (other than an incomplete pass). So its a zero sum game, assuming your defense is on the field for roughly the same number of plays from one season to the next. And if your LB's are making more tackles than in years past, there are two possibilities:

1.As Khaliq mentions, maybe your DL has regressed. This is a bad thing, because tackles by your front 3 or 4 guys are usually the types of plays that lead to 3 and outs, which are sorely lacking. Things like stuffing the RB for a loss or no gain, or a sack.

2.The flip side is that your secondary is leading the team in tackles, which is usually not a good thing, as that means the other 7 guys were either getting toasted or performing like an electric football game (I'm old enough to remember that cutting edge technology from the 1960's).

 

[Nine]

yeahbut

correct but when the offense doesn't let the defense rest, you are going to get less production out of your tired defense.

YES, they do have control over getting themselves off the field.

 

[Schnoodler]

I don't want to start a new thread, but these numbers are really getting to me. Our LB's are making more tackles then in years pass, which to me implies that they are better players then what we had before (maybe faster to get sideline to sideline). But when you can't get 3 and outs like PSU's team, do you really look at tackles as a measurement of which LB unit is better? Maybe it should be number of tackles per number of offensive plays?

I wonder if this is a factor in who we've played. AF and their highly successful option run, Cal with a good power runner, wiscy with Clay, Penn State without QB pressure, Kafka being himself. This is some very good ball posession teams. We'll have to see how it looks the rest of the way.

 

[GophersInIowa]

IMO the true test of a defense is total points allowed. Doesn't matter if a team runs up and down on the field against you as along as you don't allow TD's.

2007 36.7 points per game
2008 24.8 points per game
2009 23.3 points per game - this year basically the same as last year at this point of the season.

what is alarming though (as was during the wacker and mason years) is the inability of the defense to get off the field on 3rd down.

Good post. Also, as others have said, our defense is on the field a lot more this year because the offense is not that good.

An interesting stat to look at is yards per play allowed. In 2006 we ranked 105th nationally in yards per play. That's playing against great offenses like Temple, Kent St. and NDSU. Temple and Kent St. ranked in the bottom 20 of scoring offenses that year.

In 2009, we're 58th in the nation in yards allowed per play. Syracuse is the only really bad offense we've faced this year if you go by points scored per game. They're ranked about the same as us. Big difference if you ask me. We're just on defense so much more now which means we will give up more yardage overall.

Is our defense great? Not even close, but I don't see how anyone can say it is not improved from the Mason era.

BTW, one of the many teams we allow less yardage per play and less points per game this year is wisconsin.

 

[AhliBobwa]

Minnesota's D is fast and athletic at most positions (still pretty slow at safety--and it hurts). Mason's Ds only ever looked good cause the Offense would hold the ball all game (as many posters have noted). Brewster's D is light years ahead of Mason's, and I believe in 2010 the Gopher D will be one of the top 3-4 units in the conference.

Of course, the offense will need to improve exponentially or the even the best defensive unit in the world can't save you (see State, Ohio for evidence of this)

GO GOPHERS!

 

[nemosgold]

All of the discussion re Tim Brewster is entirely off the mark. Tim Brewster has brought more excitement, and more commitment to this program then any MN football coach that I've seen in the last 25 years (Lou Holtz excepted). The recruiting that Glen Mason did in his last 2 years at MN was abominable! Now we see starred recruits routinely. On recruiting grounds alone Brewster deserves a contract extension. On generating excitement for the program he deserves an extension. His current choice of offensive/defensive coordinators IS questionable--very pedestrian offensive schemes and a defense that plays so softly that any playground athlete could pick it apart. He still has a chance to create a MN program that can compete with anyone.

Gotta love the pair of 4-star wide-outs we recruited.

 

[diefirma]

If that's true, that's a big deal. Anywhere else in the world, you're canned for that.

I doubt if it is true. Fisch agreed to work for about 100K until Dunbar's contract expires and then his salary jumps up to what Dunbar was making - about 300K or so. JM had to have approved that arangement.