March Madness presents one of the most unpredictable and high-energy betting environments in sports. The first round, in particular, offers opportunities for bettors who can spot value before the market fully adjusts. With 32 games spread over two days, oddsmakers don’t always get every line right – and identifying those inefficiencies can give you an edge—but only if you know what to look for.
Evaluating Undervalued Teams Early
Before lines are released, sportsbooks rely on a vast amount of data, including power ratings, performance metrics, and betting trends. This means that almost inevitably some teams will be mispriced, especially lower-seeded programs that don’t hog the limelight and can outperform expectations.
Identifying these teams requires:
- Advanced Metrics Over Traditional Seeding – The selection committee emphasizes records, but bettors should focus on efficiency stats like KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, strength of schedule, and net rating. A No. 12 seed with elite three-point shooting and a top-30 defense may hold more value than a higher-seeded opponent.
- Conference Strength Matters – Mid-majors often dominate weaker leagues, inflating their records. Conversely, a team finishing .500 in the Big 12 or SEC may be battle-tested against superior competition. If a lower-seeded team played fewer high-caliber opponents, their stats may be misleading.
- Recent Performance Trends – Some teams peak at the right time. Look at the last 10 games instead of season-long averages. A No. 11 seed that closed the year with wins over multiple tournament teams could be a dangerous bet at plus odds.
Spotting Misaligned Spreads and Totals
Oddsmakers are sharp, but with dozens of March Madness games to set lines for, mistakes happen. Bettors who act fast on mispriced matchups can gain an advantage before the public moves the numbers.
Keep a look out for data that unwraps:
- Tempo and Possessions Per Game – Slower-paced teams limit possessions, making large spreads harder to cover. If a high seed is favored by double digits but ranks near the bottom in tempo, the underdog has a better chance of staying within the number.
- Defensive Efficiency and Turnover Rates – A team that forces turnovers at a high rate can create scoring opportunities without needing to shoot well. If an underdog matches up against a turnover-prone favorite, they could generate enough extra possessions to cover or win outright.
- Over/Under Value in Low-Scoring Matchups – When two defensive-oriented teams meet, early totals may be set too high. Games featuring teams ranked in the top 25 for defensive efficiency often see totals drop before tip-off. If an initial number appears inflated, early action on the under could be the right move.
Understanding Market Movement and Public Bias
March Madness draws casual bettors, creating inefficient markets early in the tournament. The key is knowing when to fade public perception and when to act before sharp money influences lines.
- Overreaction to Big-Name Schools – Teams with strong brand recognition (Duke, Kentucky, Kansas) often receive inflated lines. If a power program underperformed late in the season but still enters the tournament as a high seed, they may be overvalued compared to a lesser-known opponent.
- Small-School Underdogs and Line Movement – Early lines on mid-majors can shift significantly. If a No. 13 or No. 14 seed opens at +10 but quickly moves to +7.5, sharps likely found value before the public caught on. Tracking early movement at sportsbooks like FanDuel can reveal which teams professional bettors are backing before the odds settle.
- Betting Percentages vs. Line Movement – If 80% of bets are on a high seed, but the spread drops from -12 to -10, it suggests sharp money is backing the underdog. The best value often lies in going against the public when line movement doesn’t align with betting percentages.
Timing Your Bets for Maximum Value
Odds shift quickly as information spreads, so knowing when to bet is critical.
- Early Bets for Mispriced Lines – If March Madness research shows a spread or total is off, placing a bet before the market corrects it ensures better odds.
- Waiting for Public Money to Inflate Lines – If a favorite is likely to receive overwhelming action, waiting until closer to tip-off can lead to a better price on the underdog.
- Live Betting Opportunities – If a favorite struggles early, sportsbooks adjust in real time. A team favored by -8 pregame could drop to -4 after a slow start. This presents a better entry point.
Unlocking First-Round Opportunities
Betting on the first round of March Madness requires more than just picking the “better” team. Lines are set quickly, public money influences odds, and some matchups are mispriced. By focusing on efficiency metrics, defensive trends, and market movement, bettors can identify early-stage value before oddsmakers adjust. The first round is chaotic, but for those who recognize patterns, it’s also one of the best opportunities of the tournament.