As a sport, basketball has always been popular, particularly in the United States. However, basketball betting hasn’t always been as popular as it is now becoming. With many states opting to legalize sports betting and an influx of new online sportsbooks and mobile betting apps, it’s becoming easier for fans to join in and gamble on their favorite teams.
Yet, with basketball betting being such a new concept for many, it’s important to understand how best to play. Having effective betting strategies is crucial. In this article, we’re here to help you choose the optimal betting strategies for your needs.
Basketball betting: What are your options?
If you’re completely new to basketball betting, the first thing you need to know about is the different types of basketball bets. The most popular choices are:
- Point spread bets: This is one of the most popular basketball bets. The point spread levels the playing field. It assigns a margin that the favored team must cover. For example, if the spread is set at -5 for the favorite, they have to win by more than 5 points for a bet on them to payout.
- Moneyline bets: This is a straightforward wager on which team will win the game outright. If a team has odds of -150, you will need to bet $150 to win $100. If the odds are +200, a $100 bet will pay out $200 in profit if the team wins.
- Totals (over/under) bets: This is when you wager on the combined score of both teams and whether it will be over or under a specified number that has been set by the sportsbook. For example, if the total is 220 and you choose to bet on the over, you need the combined score from both teams to be at least 221 for you to win your bet.
- Prop bets: Short for proposition bets, these are wagers on events within a game. They include events such as the total points scored by a specific person or which team scores first.
- Parlay bets: This is a type of bet that combines multiple bets into one wager. To win, all bets have to win. These have higher payouts but are also higher risk.
- Futures bets: This means placing a bet on an event that will occur in the future, such as a team to win the championship. Though their odds may be attractive, they do tie up your bankroll for an extended period of time.
Analyzing team performance
Now that you understand the basics, it’s time to look at optimal betting strategies. One of the most effective strategies for basketball betting is based on team performance analysis. Understanding a team and how it performs in different situations can give you valuable insight into predicting their future performances so you can make informed bets.
Here are some things to consider:
- Team statistics
- Recent performance
- Head-to-head matchups
- Injury reports
- Coaching styles
Understanding how a team performs in key tournaments early in the season can help you place more accurate bets further down the line. For example, in college basketball, the Big Ten’s strong showing in the MTE Titles shows you how conference trends might influence betting outcomes.
Using advanced metrics to help with betting choices
A lot of our lives are entrenched in data nowadays and basketball betting is no different. The good news is that you can use this data to make informed decisions regarding your basketball betting. Advanced metrics give you a deeper understanding of both team and player performance — and they go beyond the basic statistics.
Here are some of the most relevant metrics you might want to review as a part of your basketball betting strategy:
- Player efficiency rating (PER): This summarizes the player’s statistical accomplishments in a single number. The higher the PER, the better the player.
- True shooting percentage (TS%): This measures shooting efficiency, giving you an accurate representation of a player’s scoring ability.
- Offensive and defensive rating: The offensive rating measures the number of points scored by a team for every 100 possessions. The defensive rating measures how many points a team allows. The Net Rating is the difference between these two.
- Effective field goal percentage (eFG%): This metric helps you assess the team’s shooting efficiency to account for the added value of three-point shots.
- Rebound rate: This measures the percentage of available rebounds a player/team scores on the floor. The higher the figure, the stronger the performance.
- Usage rate: This gives you an estimate of the percentage of a team’s possessions that a player uses on the floor.
- Lineup analysis: This gives you an analysis of different player lineups and how they perform together.
Managing bankroll and betting psychology
An important but often overlooked strategy for basketball betting is managing your bankroll and emotions. Having a solid understanding of both will lead to more successful outcomes. Bettors should be wary and try to maintain discipline so they can minimize losses and maximize profits over the long term. This means setting a dedicated bankroll amount that you’re willing to allocate to your betting. This should be something you’re willing to lose in its entirety. Having a set amount means you can keep your betting money separate from your everyday finances.
Keeping a record of your bets is also a good idea. This helps you to look at your betting history so you can analyze the strategies you’re using. It also helps you to evaluate which bets have worked out to be the most profitable.
Betting evokes strong emotions, so be sure to always avoid chasing losses, however strong the temptation is to do so. Think about betting as a process rather than a set of results. Winning and losing are both part of the experience and as long as you don’t bet more than you can afford to lose, you should consider this a long-term game.
Final thoughts
The pull towards basketball betting is strong and it’s going to get stronger still with the NBA getting more international coverage. If you find yourself getting overwhelmed or stressed, it’s a good idea to take a break. This helps you gain clarity and prevents impulsive decisions.