Gopher Basketball
Devron Bostick, Paul Carter, Justin Cobbs, Colton Iverson, Devoe Joseph, Trevor Mbawke, Ralph Sampson III, Royce White, and Rodney Williams. They come from California, Canada, Georgia, South Dakota, and a short drive from Williams Arena. They bring with them awards (Bostick was named the 2008 National Junior College Player of the Year), great lineage (Carter´s father played two seasons in the NBA and Sampson´s father, for the whippersnappers in the audience, was a legend at Virginia), and the potential to be McDonald´s All-Americans (White and Williams). The high expectations are warranted with the players that are arriving the next two years at Williams Arena.
But when you get beyond the rankings, the awards, the bloodlines what does it all mean? To trot out a cliché, you don´t win championships on paper. With the talent that will be arriving on campus, what are reasonable expectations? March Madness participants? Big Ten champs? Final Four? National champs?
I decided to take a look at how Tubby Smith´s recent recruiting classes and anticipated teams stack up against the Big Ten´s top 3 teams for the last five years, and the type of talent those teams featured among their top six players (by virtue of minutes played). Why the top 3? Because historically if you are one of the top three teams in the Big Ten, you are not only guaranteed a spot in the NCAA tournament, but you are also going to be nationally ranked, and carry a pretty high seed into the tournament. (The recruiting rankings used from rscihoops.com, which combines the rankings from various national recruiting websites and averages out the rankings to create a consensus top 100).
2004
1. Illinois – advanced to Sweet Sixteen
Luther Head
Deron Williams (#48 class of ´02)
Dee Brown (#19 class of ´02)
Roger Powell, Jr. (#62 class of ´01)
James Augustine (#78 class of ´02)
Nick Smith (#78 class of ´00)
2. Wisconsin – advanced to round of 32
Devin Harris
Mike Wilkinson
Boo Wade (#90 class of ´02)
Zach Morley (junior college)
Freddie Owens
Clayton Hanson
3. Michigan State – lost in round of 64
Paul Davis (#7, class of ´02)
Alan Anderson (#30, class of ´01)
Maurice Ager (#54, class of ´02)
Shannon Brown (#3, class of ´03)
Chris Hill
Kelvin Torbert (#2, class of ´01)
2005
1. Illinois – national title game
Luther Head
Deron Williams (see above)
Dee Brown (see above)
Roger Powell (see above)
James Augustine (see above)
Jack Ingram
2. Michigan State – advanced to Final Four
Paul Davis (see above)
Alan Anderson (see above)
Maurice Ager (see above)
Shannon Brown (see above)
Chris Hill
Kelvin Torbert (see above)
3. Wisconsin – advanced to Elite Eight
Mike Wilkinson
Alando Tucker
Kammron Taylor
Sharif Chambliss (transfer)
Zach Morley (see above)
Clayton Hanson
2006
1. Ohio State – advanced to round of 32
Je´kel Foster (junior college)
Jamar Butler (#70 class of ´04)
Terence Dials
J.J. Sullinger (transfer)
Ron Lewis (transfer)
Matt Sylvester (#61, class of ´01)
2. Illinois – advanced to round of 32
Dee Brown (see above)
James Augustine (see above)
Rich McBride (#28, class of ´03)
Brian Randle (#53, class of ´03)
Jamar Smith
Shaun Pruitt (#77 class of ´04)
2. Iowa – defeated in opening round
Jeff Horner (#59 class of ´02)
Adam Haluska (#74 class of ´02; transfer)
Greg Brunner (#50 class of ´02)
Mike Henderson
Erek Hansen (junior college)
Doug Thomas
2007
1. Wisconsin – advanced to round of 32
Alando Tucker
Kammron Taylor
Michael Flowers
Joe Krabbenhoft (#28 class of ´05)
Brian Butch (#7 class of ´03)
Marcus Landry
2. Ohio State – national title game
Mike Conley (#21 class of ´06)
Jamar Butler (see above)
Greg Oden (#1 class of ´06)
Ron Lewis (transfer)
Ivan Harris (#26 class of ´03)
Daequan Cook (#13 class of ´06)
3. Indiana – advanced to round of 32
D.J. White (#13 class of ´04)
Roderick Wilmont
Earl Calloway (junior college)
Armon Bassett (#74 class of ´05)
A.J. Ratliff (#76 class of ´04)
Lance Stemler (junior college)
2008
1. Wisconsin – advanced to Sweet Sixteen
Trevon Hughes (#88 class of ´06)
Michael Flowers
Joe Krabbenhoft (see above)
Marcus Landry
Jason Bohannon (#62 class of ´06)
Brian Butch (see above)
2. Purdue – advanced to Round of 32
E´Twaun Moore (#23 class of ´07)
Chris Kramer
Robbie Hummel (#62 class of ´07)
Keaton Grant
Scott Martin (#41 class of ´07)
Nemanja Calasan (junior college)
3. Indiana – lost in first round
Eric Gordon (#3 class of ´07)
D.J. White (see above)
Armon Bassett (see above)
Jamarcus Ellis (junior college)
Jordan Crawford
Lance Stemler (junior college)
Taking a look at the teams above, it gives us an indication of what type of team needs to be constructed to compete at the top of the Big Ten. Of the 15 teams listed, only four teams did not have at least three players among their top six rotation of players who were consensus Top 100 prep talents. (And when you look at those four teams, there was either some extraordinary player development by the coaches, the recruiting gurus were way off, or a bit of both-Devin Harris, Terence Dials, and Alando Tucker all fell outside of the Top 100 and all went on to win the Big Ten Player of the Year award).
In looking at the next two years, here is how the Gophers roster will be constructed:
2008-09
Al Nolen
Lawrence Westbrook
Damien Johnson
Jonathan Williams
Jamal Abu-Shamala
Blake Hoffarber
Kevin Payton
Travis Busch
Devron Bostick (junior college)
Paul Carter (junior college)
Colton Iverson
Devoe Joseph (#98 class of ´08)
Ralph Sampson III (#64 class of ´08)
2009-10
Nolen
Westbrook
Johnson
Abu-Shamala
Hoffarber
Payton
Busch
Bostick (junior college)
Carter (junior college)
Iverson
Joseph (see above)
Sampson (see above)
Justin Cobbs (unlikely to be ranked in top 100)
Royce White (#24 class of ´09)
Rodney Williams (#38 class of ´09)
Trevor Mbakwe (#91 class of ´07; junior college)
2010 looks pretty promising doesn´t it? Projecting outward, 2011 looks like it might be downright fun. The Gophers have the potential to have five top 100 talents, four of whom will be either freshman or sophomores, among their top six players along with a veteran core of Nolen, Westbrook, Johnson, Hoffarber, Carter, and Iverson. Just take a few seconds and look at those names. . .does it seem likely that Nolen, Westbrook, Johnson, Carter or Iverson will not be among the top six or seven players in minutes played in 2010? 5+5+Hoffarber will create some challenges for Tubby and his staff. When you look at Tubby´s track record, he has never been shy about playing an unheralded recruit ahead of a player with more accolades. How will his highly touted freshman react to riding the bench, if it plays out that way? Let´s say White and Williams are everything we dream of-how will his veterans react to their minutes being cut into by freshman?
Promising recruiting classes have fizzled before due to a variety of reasons-lack of playing time, early entry into the NBA draft, academics, homesickness, injuries, etc. The Gophers could be affected similarly or they could avoid those pitfalls and blend their variety of talented parts into a team that chemistry textbooks will one day reference. Travel if you will with me back in time, to an age that some claim never happened. . .1997. The Final Four Gophers featured a veteran backcourt (Eric Harris and Bobby Jackson), an athletic swingman (Sam Jacobson), and a bruising frontline (Courtney James and John Thomas) complemented by a young, frisky bench satisfied with providing a spark in limited minutes (Quincy Lewis, Charles Thomas, Miles Tarver, plus senior Trevor Winter). Harris, Jacobson, James, Lewis, and Thomas were all consensus Top 100 recruits (if memory serves me correctly) who meshed with their lesser regarded teammates to produce the best team in Golden Gophers history, despite what the white-washed record books may say.
The Beast That is the Big Ten
So, let´s say this team does blend together and the players are willing to sacrifice individual minutes and statistics for the greater good of the team-can we assume we will be fans of a Big Ten title contender and potential Final Four squad? Perhaps, but we should consider the other teams we will be contending against in the Big Ten. You may have scoffed at the headline above this paragraph, but the lament of the Big Ten being the most overrated basketball conference, of being mediocre, of not deserving the number of teams it gets into the NCAA tournament-well, those days are going to be behind us very soon, perhaps as early as this season. There is no question that the quality of head coaches in this conference has marked up dramatically in the past few seasons with changes occurring at Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Purdue and Indiana. Combine these coaches with the holdovers at Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin and the glory days of the 1980´s may be easily recalled.
Now that the coaches have arrived, the players are beginning to follow. Consider 2010, when the Gophers will likely have the most talent on their team since 1997. During that same year, it is likely that six other Big Ten teams will have at least three top 100 talents in their rotation (Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, and Indiana). One of these teams, flush with Top 100 talent and high expectations will finish seventh, if not worse in the conference and most likely be playing their post-season basketball in the NIT. How about the prep class of 2010, when the high school talent in Minnesota figures to be down? Dave Telep at scout.com has put together a top 75 list for 2010. Keeping in mind that several prospects have not yet committed, five Big Ten teams have already secured verbal commitments from this list, lead by Ohio State with four and Illinois with three (Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Purdue each have one player committed). 2011? Telep only has a Top Ten for that year and there are three prospects who live in Big Ten country with Illinois, Indiana, Purdue and Ohio State in hot pursuit.
Is this reason to despair, before we have seen any of our heralded recruits in Maroon and Gold? Certainly not. Just as there are no guarantees with Minnesota´s recruits panning out, neither are there any guarantees for the other programs. As funny as this may sound, Minnesota may also be aided by the fact that their current list of recruits (outside of White and Williams) is not that elite-meaning that it looks to be the type of talent which primarily will be on campus for three or four years. Those type of recruits give a program stability and consistency that can be found lacking at programs which are bitten by the early entry bug among their players. One thing I know is this-it may have been said 1,000 times already, but the “œU” is very fortunate to have landed Tubby Smith. The emerging state of the Big Ten leads one to believe that it is going to be very rough territory over the next several years, with at least seven or eight teams vying for NCAA berths each year (If you are a basketball fan of Penn State or Northwestern, you might want to find another pastime for the next 5-7 years and check back in later).
National Champs?
We´ve already established that the Big Ten should provide an able testing ground for the Gopher team as they hopefully step into the NCAA tournament in future years. Is it reasonable to dream of a Final Four or dare say, a national championship? Of course it´s reasonable to dream. . .for the Final Four. Even coming from the second division of the conference, if the Big Ten is as strong as anticipated in the upcoming years, a Final Four berth could be a reality. However, recent history tells us to become national champs, you need a roster stocked with top flight talent. Gone are the days where Danny & the Miracles, N.C. State, and Villanova shocked the world by winning six games in March to claim a national championship. Take a look at the national championship rosters from the last five years, once again looking at the six players that earned the most minutes per team:
2008-Kansas
Mario Chalmers (#8 class of ´05)
Russell Robinson (#31 class of ´04)
Darrell Arthur (#11 class of ´06)
Darnell Jackson (#68 class of ´04)
Brandon Rush (#23 class of ´05)
Sherron Collins (#14 class of ´06)
2006 & 2007-Florida
Joakim Noah (#72 class of ´04)
Corey Brewer (#25 class of ´04)
Al Horford (#47 class of ´04)
Lee Humphrey
Tauren Green
Chris Richard (#43 class of ´03)
2005-North Carolina
Jackie Manuel (#25 class of ´01)
Jawad Williams (#11 class of ´01)
Sean May (#9 class of ´02)
Raymond Felton (#3 class of ´02)
Rashad McCants (#4 class of ´02)
Marvin Williams (#7 class of ´04)
2004-Connecticut
Emeka Okafor (#99 class of ´01)
Ben Gordon (#41 class of ´01)
Denham Brown (#34 class of ´02)
Taliek Brown (#10 class of ´00)
Rashard Anderson (#24 class of ´02)
Josh Boone (#95 class of ´03)
While Florida won with four Top 100 talents among its top six, all the rest of the recent national champs were flush with Top 100 talent. I´m getting ahead of myself though-before we start worrying about national titles, how bout we get back to the NCAA tournament first? Tubby Smith has begun the process by starting a pipeline of top flight talent to Williams Arena. How it charts from there will be for us to enjoy.
““ Related article: Part 5 “” An Interview with Dave Telep
““ Related article: Part 4 “” One & Done’s ““ Friend or Foes to a College Program?
““ Related article: Part 3 “” Big Ten Recruiting This Decade ““ The Best & the Busts
““ Related article: Part 2 “” How Do Our Recruits Compare?
Talk about college basketball on our Gopher Basketball message board.