By: Daniel House- Follow on Twitter: @DanielHouseNFL
The Gophers kick off the 2017 season Thursday with a non-conference matchup against the Buffalo Bulls. It will mark the beginning of P.J. Fleck’s tenure as the head coach at Minnesota. Fleck is familiar with Buffalo; a MAC conference foe he came in contact with during his four years at Western Michigan. In 2016, the Buffalo Bulls had one of their worst seasons in program history, finishing in the bottom tier of several categories. I watched a few Buffalo games to analyze their standout players and key themes.
For a more in-depth look, here’s my scouting report:
Buffalo Bulls
2016 Record: 2-10 (0-6 road)
Key Stats:
Searching for points
Buffalo scored the fifth-fewest points in the country last year (16.5) and lost by an average of 25.9 points. They failed to find a strong identity in the passing game and relied on the legs of quarterback Tyree Jackson and running back Jordan Johnson to compete. In 2017, Buffalo will need playmakers to step up in the passing game.
Last year, wide receivers Kamathi Holsey, Jerin Scroggins, and Anthony Johnson were added as community college transfers. Buffalo was trying every strategy possible to find serviceable pass catchers. Holsey was the only player to see limited action in 2016. The Bulls have little to no experience returning at wide receiver and lost their top three offensive targets. They may even rely on a few freshmen to round out their receiving corps.
First half woes
The Bulls dug themselves into a hole during every game they played last season. Buffalo scored the fourth-fewest points per game in the first half (6.9). In 2016, they were outscored 88-10 in first quarters. Once the Bulls got behind, teams controlled the clock because they could not stop the run. Buffalo seemed to be unprepared at the beginning of games and it showed within the first 15 minutes.
Gaining momentum in the running game
The Bulls finished 93rd in rushing yards per game (146.6), but will lose their main contributor at the position. Running back Jordan Johnson graduated, leaving junior Jonathan Hawkins in a position to step up. He rushed for 338 yards on 74 carries in 2016, but was in a timeshare with Johnson and quarterback Tyree Jackson. Hawkins is a very elusive running back with open field speed and a strong set of cutbacks. After watching their tape, it is clear to see Buffalo should let the offense run through the backfield more. Their quarterback if a prototypical pocket passer and they should adjust their play-calling to better suit his strengths. They may change their approach with former Gophers quarterback coach Jim Zebrowksi now instructing the position at Buffalo. If the Bulls adjust their offense, they can control clock and call plays that fit their players best.
Third Down Defense
The heartbeat of a good defense is a team’s ability to get off the field on third down. In 2016, Buffalo allowed the fifth-most third down conversions per game (7.5). Their opponent third down conversion rate was over 50% for a vast majority of their matchups. They were beaten consistently on crossers and certain players struggled to execute their assignments on third down. If the Gophers can move the chains, they will control the time of possession and run the ball, which has been their forte in recent seasons.
Run the ball, please
The Buffalo Bulls had the fourth-worst rushing defense in the country. They allowed 264.9 rushing yards per game and teams completely shied away from passing against them. Buffalo tried to run blitz, but then teams would kill them through the air. In addition, when the Bulls didn’t manufacture pressure, they were picked apart through the air. They ranked 15th in passing yards allowed per game (189.5), but this stat is misleading because Buffalo allowed so many rushing yards. The Gophers can run buck sweeps and get pulling guards out in the second level to exploit this weakness.
Summary:
Last season was widely considered one of the worst in program history for the Buffalo Bulls. They won just two games, struggling to overcome an offense that lacked firepower. Buffalo was outscored 88-10 in the first quarter last year. Their offense centered around quarterback Tyree Jackson and his dual-threat capabilities. He rushed for 399 yards on 99 carries, scoring five touchdowns on the ground.
With all four of their starting offensive lineman returning, along with the addition of Rutgers transfer Jacquis Webb at left tackle, the Bulls will be strong up front. It’s good news for their 6-foot-7, 245-pound sophomore quarterback. Jackson has a tremendous amount of overall arm talent and can stretch the field with his strong arm. Buffalo will likely try to keep him in the pocket more and drive the ball up the field. The Bulls lack consistent playmakers on offense, especially with the loss of running back Jordan Johnson. Johnson rushed for 1,040 yards last year, ranking 61st in the country among running backs. Not to mention, the Bulls’ top receiver, tight end Mason Schrek, graduated last year. Buffalo added three community college wide receivers to help bolster their lackluster passing attack, but they will be very inexperienced.
On defense, the Bulls had the fourth-worst rushing defense in the country. Teams ran the ball consistently and controlled the time of possession.
Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck coached against Buffalo last season in the MAC conference. Western Michigan absolutely destroyed the Bulls through the air. Quarterback Zach Terrell diced the Bulls up, throwing for 445 yards and four touchdowns. The Bulls were either gashed in the running game or destroyed against the pass when they didn’t send blitz packages. Buffalo had to manufacture pressure because their defensive line was inadequate. Sending rushers helped ease the strain placed on their defensive backs. However, Buffalo had no answer against the run in almost every game.
The Bulls return one of their two top defensive players. They lost cornerback Boise Ross to graduation, a very fundamentally sound player who ranked fifth nationally in total pass breakups. Nonetheless, linebacker Khalil Hodge Jr. (different Khalil) returns and was a fantastic run defender at middle linebacker. He gets downhill quickly with a blend of size and power to fight through blocks. More importantly, he has above average instincts and recognition skills to make stops in the backfield. The Bulls must improve their defensive line because opposing offensive fronts dominated the line of scrimmage. They relied on their linebackers to make stops and pull off of blocks in the second level. It was clear to see their defensive lineman had inconsistent footwork and struggled to get through blocks.
The Gophers should be able to adequately run the ball, control the clock, and get off to a quick start against a Buffalo team that is still in the growing stages of their evolution. A game like this is the perfect opportunity to try different personnel combinations and schematic looks that could be used later in the season.
Writer’s Note:
As some of you may know, I accepted the Gophers Football Analyst position with 1500ESPN. I will still be writing on this website, but my column will be exclusive to 1500 on Wednesday. My game stories will run on both GopherHole and 1500ESPN.com. I’ll be doing a few Facebook Live sessions and special assignments throughout the season with 1500ESPN, too. Stay tuned!