Feb. 15, 2023: With the Gophers’ second game postponement in the last week, I thought it would be a great time to look ahead to next season.
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What has gone wrong?
It is fair to say that the 2022-23 season has not gone as Ben Johnson or any Gophers fans would’ve hoped. After the surprising start in year No. 1, there was plenty of intrigue into what a Johnson-led program would look like with improved talent in year No. 2. Preseason ACL injuries to projected starters Parker Fox and Isaiah Ihnen for the second-consecutive year certainly did not help the potential of this season, and surprise preseason foot surgery to Jamison Battle has led to a tumultuous year to say the least.
After a slow start without Battle, the Gophs were hit with in-season injuries to Braeden Carrington and leading-scorer Dawson Garcia, this level of injury luck would be very tough on any coach, let alone one that is in only his second season ever as the top man of a program. Hiring a coach with no previous head coaching experience like Ben Johnson was always going to be a high-risk high-reward proposition. It is completely fair for any Gophers fan to be disappointed in this season, but calling for Johnson’s job and giving up on the experiment this early would just be poor decision-making at its finest.
Firmly at the bottom of the Big Ten with a conference record of 1-12 and 7-16 overall, the Gophers currently rank as the 224th (out of 363) best team in college basketball according to KenPom.com. I don’t care how many injuries you’ve had Minnesota should never fall that low as a program. With that being said, you do have to take a step and reassess; this is a lost season, but that does not mean 2023-24 has to be. With potentially every major player returning (minus Taurus Samuels) and a top-40 recruiting class there is still plenty to be excited about next season, and Johnson deserves time with a healthy roster and his players to see what he can be as a head coach.
What is 2023-24 gonna look like?
With freshmen Joshua Ola-Joseph, Pharrel Payne and Jaden Henley continuing to show flashes this season, there is plenty of intrigue about what they will look like with a full offseason and year of college under their belt in 2023-24. The x-factor of this season will be Isaiah Ihnen and Parker Fox. Two of the more veteran players on this roster will be both coming off consecutive ACL tears. Ihnen was getting plenty of offseason hype and was rumored to be expected to start at the two-guard, listed at a whopping 6-foot-9. Fox, was Division II All-American at Northern State in 2020-21 and had dozens of high major intrigue as a transfer and one of the most athletic players in the portal. But now after his second major knee surgery, there is no telling if he is going to be the same player.
Dawson Garcia finally started to look like he had found his groove, averaging 16.3 PPG and 7.8 RPG in 2023, before suffering a bone bruise in his foot, which has led to him missing five straight games. In a seriously up-and-down season, Battle look like he had found something in late January with four-straight double-digit performances, but he is now amidst another slump with back-to-back single-digit scoring outings. Overall, the roster next season is going to have PLENTY of talent, but PLENTY of question marks.
- Potential Depth-Chart
- PG: Ta’lon Cooper/Braeden Carrington/*Jackson Purcell
- SG: Isaiah Ihnen/Jaden Henley/Cam Christie
- SF: Jamison Battle/Parker Fox/Kadyn Betts/*Will Ramberg
- PF: Dawson Garcia/Joshua Ola-Joseph
- C: Pharrel Payne/Dennis Evans/Treyton Thompson
Starters:
I believe there are three positions that you can pretty clearly guess who will start for the Maroon & Gold next season. Ta’lon Cooper has shown that he is a Big Ten-level point guard and he is currently 16th in the country in assists per game (5.7). Dawson Garcia found a rhythm pre-injury and will be a potential All-Conference player next season while healthy, and I believe at his natural four spot he could be a star in this league. If Coach Johnson has rocked with Jamison Battle this long, there is no question he will next season, and I expect we will see an improved version of him after a full-season recovery from foot surgery.
When it comes to question marks on next season’s lineup, it starts in the frontcourt. I believe Dawson Garcia and the Gophers have looked best when he is playing the four position and Pharrel Payne is at the five. Payne has certainly played like a freshman at times this season, but one could expect a player of his talent could be in line for a big step forward after a full season of offseason work, I believe he will be too good to keep on the bench.
The two-guard position will easily be the biggest question mark for 2023-24. Jaden Henley has started 10 games as a true freshman, but he has only averaged 4.2 PPG this season and 1.5 turnovers. He has shown potential, but also inconsistent play. Braeden Carrington has shown that he can play at a Big Ten level as a combo guard, but battling injuries this season has prevented him from showing off his full skillset. Freshman Cam Christie will come in with a lot of hype as a top-100 player and the No. 1 player in Illinois, but he will be a teenager. Outside of the trio of talented youngsters, there is Isaiah Ihnen, listed at 6-foot-9 he was rumored to start at the two this season, but now with his second ACL surgery in as many years, there is no telling what kind of player he will be. Assuming that his recovery has gone well, I expect him to have the inside track to the biggest role in that position next season.
Bench:
Joshua Ola-Joseph has arguably been the best freshman for the Gophers this season, while he was the third-highest ranked coming into the season. With tremendous athleticism and defensive versatility, he has fit the bill for a modern 3&D player. He has mostly played 4 and 5 this season, starting 16/23 games, but with so much talent in the frontcourt, he would have an outside shot for a starting role next season. I still believe he is far too talented to leave on the bench and I could see him being the Gophers’ 6th man in 2023-24.
Rounding out the frontcourt, I expect Parker Fox to be eased into the action with so much talent now around him at the position. There is no way to predict how he will look next season, but he will have a chance to show his skills and pre-injuries he also had the athleticism and defensive versatility to play a similar position to JOJ. Lastly, the Gophers’ crowned recruiting jewel Dennis Evans will have a role next season. I will be the first to temper expectations and this guy might not light the Big Ten on fire in game one. He is still a pretty raw prospect and it will likely not happen overnight. I think the most interesting question will be if he can play next to Pharrel Payne.
Now onto the backcourt, I think Carrington, Henley, and Christie will all battle for the second guard spots at the one and two. The offseason will tell a lot about how this will shake out, but no outcome would really surprise me, I expect all three guys to be hungry for minutes, which will likely get the most out of them, which is something this team badly needs.
Redshirt freshman Kadyn Betts is another wildcard, as he has the skills, but there are a lot of bodies he will have to fight off to earn minutes next season. Treyton Thompson is another player in the same situation and if there is anyone that wouldn’t shock me to enter the portal after the season, it would likely be Thompson.
Realistic expectations?
I would imagine many of the people calling for Johnson’s job this season, would be needing an NCAA Tournament birth in 2023-24 to be happy. Although I think that is definitely possible, I believe a postseason tournament either the NIT or NCAA, should be borderline for success or improvement. Like I said early, the Ben Johnson experiment was never going to happen overnight.
An NIT birth would be a step in the right direction. There is more than enough talent to compete in the middle of the Big Ten next season and get to the Big Dance, but with so many question marks with injuries heading into next year, I believe fans should be ecstatic if that happens. 2022-23 has not gone how anyone would’ve liked, but there is still plenty to be excited about Ben Johnson, this program, and Minnesota basketball heading into 2023-24.