As the Gophers football season quickly approaches, it’s worth thinking about areas the team can improve this year. Of course, there are a few obvious categories must be fixed, such as the passing game and pass rush. However, it’s worth noting the areas to tweak or build upon entering the 2018 season, too. With another year of talent and a better understanding of the roster, it will be interesting to see how the coaching staff approaches the improvement of these categories.
Executing the “78% formula”
The Gophers lost three games by one score or less last season and winning the turnover battle could have made a difference. They lost or were even in this category during all three of those losses. When a team is inexperienced like the Gophers’ current roster is, the margin for error can be razor thin. Taking care of the football and creating a few turnovers can make a big difference. Minnesota averaged a +0.0 turnover margin per game last season. In 2016, they finished at +0.6, which ranked 25th nationally. If they can come out on the positive end of this statistic, it could pay dividends within a schedule which will feature several tight games. P.J. Fleck has even studied the difference a positive turnover battle margin can have. The coaching staff is making it clear with “78%” signage throughout the entire practice facility.
“When you look at the turnover margin, the studies we’ve done over a long period of time – over the course of the last seven years of football — whether that’s National Football League or collegiate battle – if you win the turnover battle, you can win 78% of the time,” Fleck said.
The defense must be opportunistic like they were early last season, when they were averaging more than two takeaways per game. As the year progressed, this number started to tail off significantly. Closing on the opportunities available and creating takeaways can go a long way toward flipping this statistic.
“We can control the turnover margin,” Fleck said. “We can control taking opportunities on defense, not dropping interceptions, picking fumbles up, creating fumbles and then fourth downs – getting off the field.”
On the other side of the ball, taking care of the football is emphasized so much within P.J. Fleck’s culture. You constantly hear “the ball is program” throughout every practice. The focus on taking care of the football is another important component to balancing out this statistic and potentially even flipping it.
“On offense, we can control whether we throw an interception, whether we fumble the football, whether we convert those third downs, fourth downs to continue keeping it moving,” Fleck said.
Finding an identity through the air
No matter what, the Gophers will be starting a quarterback with no Division-1 experience. Last year, the passing game was almost non-existent due to a combination of factors. One being poor quarterback play and the inability to keep defenses honest. The second was a lack of skill players who can adequately get separation. The Gophers have several young options, including wide receivers Rashod Bateman and Chris Autman-Bell who can help in this area.
Overall, only six teams had a worse overall completion percentage (47.2%) and just eight averaged fewer passing yards per game (126.1) than the Gophers in 2017. Minnesota’s quarterbacks tossed nine total touchdown passes and 11 interceptions last year, ranking near the bottom of every major passing category. Not only that, but their completion percentage was worse last year (47.2%) than in 2016 (54%). They also averaged just 6.5 yards per passing attempt during each of the past two seasons. Getting in a rhythm on offense through improved quarterback play and separation at wide receiver can go a long way toward helping the Gophers find an offensive identity. If the Gophers could finish the season with a 60% and a 7.5 yards per attempt figure, it would help many aspects of the offense.
More importantly, it would directly correlate with the team’s overall balance. The Gophers called passing plays on just 32.61% of total offensive plays, which was the ninth-lowest mark in college football. The Gophers need to find a way to keep defenses honest at all three levels by eliminating stacked fronts and testing teams vertically. With true freshman Zack Annexstad or redshirt freshman Tanner Morgan at the helm, there will be growing pains, but taking care of the football and getting in a rhythm via the short-to-intermediate can be a step toward solving many offensive issues.
Continuing the disciplined play
When P.J. Fleck was hired at Minnesota just over a year ago, he talked about the importance of playing disciplined football. At Western Michigan, his teams always finished in the top quarter of overall penalties committed per game. During many practices, the Gophers were focusing on situations which tested their mental strength and discipline. There was a level of accountability incorporated into every practice. It paid off in a major way. To the surprise of many, the Gophers were the least penalized team in the country last year.
They committed 3.2 penalties per game and surrendered just 28.3 penalty yards per game, which were top marks in college football. Overall, they cut the total amount of penalties in half after finishing 81st in penalties per game (6.5) in 2016. This type of disciplined play can be a foundation for the future. Developing players in a system which promotes playing the game correctly can speed up their development. Limiting overall penalty yardage can also place your team in more favorable down-to-go situations. Defensively, it doesn’t provide teams with extra life to sustain drives. More importantly, it can make an impact late in games when other teams are tired. If you can execute slightly better, you’re gaining an advantage.
Getting after the quarterback with four rushers
One of the biggest keys to success for the Gophers this season is their pass rush. They have been unable to establish consistent pressure for the better part of five seasons. As a unit, they’ve eclipsed 30 sacks just once since 2013. It will be important to build a pass rush that can get after the quarterback with four rushers. It is hard to consistently manufacture pressure, especially if you’re not in third-and-long often. In 2016, the Gophers used more blitzing and schematic strategies to get after the quarterback. They were effective, but last season, the overall depth among the defensive line was just too depleted. The table below shows how inconsistent the Gophers have been on the defensive line.
Gophers Total Sacks
2017- 23 sacks, 14.5 from D-Line (10th in the Big Ten)
2016- 37 sacks (4th Big Ten- more aggressive via blitzing)
2015- 22 sacks (11th)
2014- 27 sacks (9th)
2013- 18 sacks (10th)
The addition of O.J. Smith should help at the one and zero technique to create more 1-on-1 opportunities on the edge. With new redshirt rules allowing players to participate in four games before losing a redshirt, the coaches might try freshman defensive tackle Elijah Teague at three-technique early in the season. Gary Moore also played well last season and can line up opposite of Smith, too.
On the edge, Minnesota will be relying upon Sam Renner and Esezi Otomewo to step up at the five technique spots. They’ll both need to hold up against the run, which was a problem last year. Carter Coughlin will also have another year under his belt at the “R” spot to help him get after the passer. Between staying healthy, scheming creatively and finding a few young contributors, the pass rush will be a priority in 2017.