When the Gophers hired PJ Fleck after the 2016 season, optimistic fans were hoping that the 37-year-old coaching wunderkind – the man who transformed Western Michigan into a 13-1 Mid-American juggernaut that battled Wisconsin tooth and nail in the Cotton Bowl – would make up for the loss of senior QB Mitch Leidner and a host of other key departures.
They hoped Minnesota would immediately become a contender for a New Year’s Six bowl.
They hoped Ohio State and Michigan would start having nightmares of a Gopher gnawing at their heels, like a midwestern take on the story of Achilles.
But Fleck is not a quick-fix type of coach. He’s a strong recruiter who needs time to build a program into a winner, and 2017 was only step one in that arduous process.
What Happened in Year 1
Fleck’s first year went pretty much as the realists expected: with little passing game to speak of, the Gophers struggled in Big Ten play (2-7) after rolling over lesser competition in the non-con (3-0), narrowly missing out on bowl eligibility with a 5-7 record.
Per ESPN , the offense finished a dreadful 123rd in yards per game (308 YPG), 110th in scoring (22.1 PPG), and was shutout in its last two games by #23 Northwestern (39-0, road) and #5 Wisconsin (31-0, home).
The defense, which finished 38th in the country (22.8 PPG) was stifling against weak opponents but overmatched when the Big Ten’s big dogs strolled in. The Gophers gave up an average of 12.4 PPG in wins over Buffalo, Oregon State, Middle Tennessee, Illinois, and Nebraska, and 32.8 PPG in setbacks to Purdue, MSU, Michigan, Northwestern, and Wisconsin.
What to Expect in Year 2
Improvements are expected in year two, but sportsbooks only see minor gains this season, setting Minnesota’s 2018 win total at 6.0. Bettors should note that there are numerous good sites to choose from when it comes to betting win totals and the odds will vary from site to site, however most sportsbooks see the under as the more likely outcome for the 2018 Gophers, with the over getting +105 odds compared to -135 for the under.
Should they be so down on this team?
Why the Gophers Will Go Under 6 Wins
Projecting under six wins is reasonable since the Gophers’ biggest weakness may be at the most important position: quarterback. If Minnesota is going to win seven games, Fleck will have to piece together some semblance of a passing game, despite the QB situation looking even worse than in 2017.
Demry Croft and Conor Rhoda, who split time last year, are both gone, and the only scholarship QB left on the roster is redshirt freshman Tanner Morgan.
The good news is that Morgan can’t be much worse than the Croft/Rhoda combination, and he acquitted himself decently in the spring game. The bad news is that he has zero experience, he’s less mobile than Croft, and he hasn’t exactly been gifted much in the way of playmakers.
On the outside, Morgan will be relying a ton on last year’s leading receiver, Tyler Johnson (35 catches, 677 yards), and … to be determined. No other player on the roster caught more than 17 balls last year, and that was RB Rodney Smith.
A lot of eyes will be on medical redshirt freshman Demetrius Douglas, who came out of the gate strong in 2017 (11 catches in three games) before suffering a season-ending foot injury. But expecting big production from a freshman-to-freshman combo in the Big Ten is asking a lot.
On defense, a group that was already suspect against the run is losing four tackles who saw significant playing time, meaning senior Gary Moore and incoming transfer OJ Smith have a lot of slack to pick up, which is never easy in this run-heavy conference.
All of the above would seem to spell doom for the Gophers, but not so fast.
Why the Gophers Will Go Over 6 Wins
To start, the schedule isn’t too daunting. Only two games are destined to be Ls (at Ohio State, at Wisconsin). Crossovers with Maryland (road) and Indiana (home) are winnable, as are the first three non-conference tilts (NM State, Fresno State, Miami (Oh.)).
Secondly, the offensive line figures to be a strength with seven of the top-ten linemen returning and two four-star freshmen coming in. A strong O-line is a must against the defensive lines Minnesota is going to see in conference play.
Thirdly, that robust O-line will be paving the way for a talented veteran in Smith. While Smith’s efficiency went down last year compared to his 2016 sophomore season (falling from 4.8 yards per carry and 16 TDs to just 4.3 YPC and 3 TDs), much of that is attributable to the non-existent passing game. Without an aerial attack to worry about, defenses sold out to stop the run. And it worked.
The passing game may be absent again this year, but an improved line should help Smith return closer to 2016 numbers.
On defense, hope abounds despite the decimation at tackle. The biggest game-wreckers in the front seven – linebacker Thomas Barber and edge rusher Carter Coughlin – are back, and so is a good deal of Fleck’s secondary, a unit which somehow remained a strength in 2017 despite endless injuries to integral components.
If DB Antoine Winfield Jr. (son of the former Viking great) returns at full speed from the hamstring injury that cost him eight games, he will be a stable anchor on a relatively deep back end.
At the end of the day, the 2018 Gophers are likely to play a lot of grinding, low-scoring games that could go either way. If they catch a few more breaks than last year, in particular on the injury front, seven wins is certainly an attainable goal, and it would put Fleck about on pace with his Western Michigan rebuild, which went from 1-11 in year one to 8-5 in year two.