Road to Selection Sunday: Preseason Top 25, 15 To Watch and Schedule Analysis

DINKYTOWN, MINN. — Our faithful readers got a look at our preseason Field of 68 a dozen days ago, now let’s take a peek at RTSS’ Preseason Top 25. For each of the top 25 teams, as well as 15 “others to watch”, we’ll list their most intriguing nonconference games. As you’ll be able to see, it’s glaringly apparent some of the top teams are challenging themselves much more so than others. ALL CAPS denotes a home game, while “vs.” represents a neutral-site game.
 
RTSS Preseason Top 25
1. Kentucky — vs. Mich St (Nov. 12), vs. Bay (Dec. 6), @ NC (Dec. 14), LOU Dec. 28)
2. Duke — vs. Kan (Nov. 12), MICH (Dec. 3), vs. UCLA (Dec. 19)
3. Michigan State — vs. Ky (Nov. 12), NC (Dec. 4), vs. G’town (Feb. 1)
4. Louisville — SO MISS (Nov. 29), @ Ky (Dec. 28)
5. Kansas — vs. Duke (Nov. 12), @ Col (Dec. 7), @ Fla (Dec. 10), vs. New Mex (Dec. 14)
6. Arizona — @ San Diego St (Nov. 14), UNLV (12-7), NEW MEX ST (Dec. 11), @ Mich (Dec. 14)
7. Syracuse — vs. Minn (Nov. 25), IND (Dec. 3), @ St. John’s (Dec. 15), VILL (Dec. 28)
8. Michigan — @ Iowa St (Nov. 17), @ Duke (Dec. 3), ARIZ (Dec. 14), vs. Stan (Dec. 21)
9. Ohio State — @ Marq (Nov. 16), MD (Dec. 4), vs. ND (Dec. 21)
10. Oklahoma State — MEM (Nov. 19), vs. Pur (Nov. 28), vs. Col (Dec. 21)
11. Memphis — @ Ok St (Nov. 19), vs. Fla (Dec. 17), GONZ (Feb. 8)
12. Florida — @ Wis (Nov. 12), @ UConn (Dec. 2), KAN (Dec. 10), vs. Mem (Dec. 17)
13. Marquette — OHIO ST (Nov. 16), @ Ariz St (Nov. 25), @ Wis (Dec. 7), vs. New Mex (Dec. 21)
14. North Carolina — @ Mich St (Dec. 4), KY (Dec. 14)
15. Wichita State — @ St. Louis (Dec. 1), TENN (Dec. 14), @ Ala (Dec. 17)
16. Iowa — vs. Xav (Nov. 28), ND (Dec. 3), @ Iowa St (Dec. 13)
17. VCU — @ UVa (Nov. 12), vs. Fla St (Nov. 21), vs. BC (Dec. 28)
18. Creighton — vs. Ariz St (Nov. 28), CAL (Dec. 22)
19. Gonzaga — NEW MEX ST (Dec. 7), @ WV (Dec. 10), vs. K-State (Dec. 21), @ Mem (Feb. 8)
20. Baylor — vs. Col (Nov. 8), vs. Ky (Dec. 6)
21. UCLA — @ Mizzou (Dec. 7), vs. Duke (Dec. 19), ALA (Dec. 28)
22. La Salle — @ Penn St (Nov. 19), @ Vill (Dec. 15), @ Mia-Fla (Dec. 22), vs. Temp (Jan. 18)
23. Wisconsin — vs. St. John’s (Nov. 8), FLA (Nov. 12), @ UVa (Dec. 4), MARQ (Dec. 7)
24. Colorado — vs. Bay (Nov. 8), HARV (Nov. 24), KAN (Dec. 7), vs. Ok St (Dec. 21)
25. Tennessee — @ Xav (Nov. 12), @ Wich St (Dec. 14), UVA (Dec. 30)
 
15 to Watch
Boise State — UTAH (Dec. 3), @ Ky (Dec. 10), ST. MARY’S (Dec. 14)
BYU — @ Stan (Nov. 11), IOWA ST (Nov. 20), vs. UMass (Dec. 7), @ Ore (Dec. 21)
Connecticut — vs. Md (Nov. 8), FLA (Dec. 2), STAN (Dec. 18), HARV (Jan. 8)
Florida Gulf Coast — @ Neb (Nov. 8), @ NC State (Nov. 26), @ So Fla (Dec. 17), @ Miss St (Dec. 19)
Harvard — @ Col (Nov. 24), BC (Jan. 1), @ UConn (Jan. 8)
Indiana — vs. Wash (Nov. 21), @ Syr (Dec. 3), vs. ND (Dec. 14)
LSU — @ UMass (Nov. 12)
Maryland — vs. UConn (Nov. 8), @ Ohio St (Dec. 4)
New Mexico — @ New Mex St (Dec. 4), CIN (Dec. 7), vs. Kan (Dec. 14), vs. Marq (Dec. 21)
Notre Dame — @ Iowa (Dec. 3), vs. Ind (Dec. 14), vs. Ohio St (Dec. 21)
Oregon — vs. G’town (Nov. 8), @ Ole Miss (Dec. 8), vs. Ill (Dec. 14), BYU (Dec. 21)
Saint John’s — vs. Wis (Nov. 8), SYR (Dec. 15)
Southern Miss — @ DePaul (Nov. 13), @ Lou (Nov. 29)
Stanford — BYU (Nov. 11), @ UConn (Dec. 18), vs. Mich (Dec. 21)
Villanova — LA SALLE (Dec. 15), @ Syr (Dec. 28), @ Temp (Feb. 1)    
 
November Intrigue (all Power 6 head-to-head matchups included)
Opening Night (Nov. 8) — Saint John’s vs. Wisconsin; Baylor vs. Colorado; Connecticut vs. Maryland; Georgetown vs. Oregon; Florida Gulf Coast @ Nebraska; Boston College @ Providence; Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Nov. 9 — Manhattan @ La Salle
Nov. 10 — Boston College vs. Massachusetts
Nov. 11 — BYU @ Stanford; Long Beach State @ Arizona
Nov. 12 — Kentucky vs. Michigan State; Duke vs. Kansas; Florida @ Wisconsin; VCU @ Virginia; LSU @ Massachusetts; Tennessee @ Xavier; South Carolina @ Baylor; West Virginia @ Virginia Tech
Nov. 13 — Florida State @ Central Florida
Nov. 14 — Northwestern @ Stanford; Arizona @ San Diego State; Texas Tech @ Alabama
Nov. 15 — Georgia Tech @ Georgia
Nov. 16 — Ohio State @ Marquette; Minnesota @ Richmond; Akron @ Middle Tennessee State
Nov. 17 — Michigan @ Iowa State; Indiana State @ Notre Dame; Stanford @ Denver; Belmont @ North Carolina; Oregon State @ Maryland; South Carolina @ Clemson
Nov. 18 — Southern Miss @ North Dakota State
Nov. 19 — Memphis @ Oklahoma State; Arizona State @ UNLV; La Salle @ Penn State; Vanderbilt @ Butler
Nov. 20 — Iowa State @ BYU
Nov. 21 — Indiana vs. Washington (2K Sports semifinal); Boston College vs. Connecticut (2K Sports semifinal) 
Nov. 22 — Michigan State vs. Virginia Tech (Coaches vs. Cancer semifinal); Oklahoma vs. Seton Hall (Coaches vs. Cancer semifinal); Providence vs. Vanderbilt (Paradise Jam quarterfinal)
Nov. 23 — North Carolina vs. Richmond (Hall of Fame semifinal)
Nov. 24 — Harvard @ Colorado; North Dakota State @ North Dakota; TCU @ Washington State
Nov. 25 — Minnesota vs. Syracuse (Maui quarterfinal); Marquette @ Arizona State; Pitt vs. Texas Tech (Legends semifinal); Arkansas vs. Cal (Maui quarterfinal)
Nov. 26 — Saint Louis vs. Wisconsin (Cancun semifinal); Illinois @ UNLV; Florida Gulf Coast @ NC State
Nov. 27 — Indiana State vs. Tulsa (Great Alaska quarterfinal); Richmond @ Air Force
Nov. 28 — Arizona State vs. Creighton (Wooden quarterfinal); Iowa vs. Xavier (Battle 4 Atlantis quarterfinal); Missouri vs. Northwestern (Las Vegas Invitational); Kansas vs. Wake Forest (Battle 4 Atlantis quarterfinal); USC vs. Villanova (Battle 4 Atlantis quarterfinal);  Butler vs. Washington State (Old Spice quarterfinal) 
Nov. 29 — Southern Miss @ Louisville; Florida State @ Florida; Penn State vs. Saint John’s (Barclay’s semifinal); Northwestern vs. UCLA (Las Vegas Invitational); SMU vs. Virginia (Corpus Christi semifinal); Georgia Tech vs. Ole Miss (Barclay’s semifinal)
Nov. 30 — Long Beach State @ Washington; Colorado @ Air Force
 
Nonconference Skeds: Remember the (Scheduling) Titans
Using the average RPI of their nonconference opponents as a guide, these schools put together (arguably) the most difficult schedules in their respective conferences. A tip o’ the cap to these 32 schools:
 
Vermont (151.25/America East); Connecticut (128.5/American); Florida State (121.7/ACC); North Florida (98.636/Atlantic Sun); Massachusetts (133.272/Atlantic 10); Villanova (118.181/Big East); North Dakota (96.125/Big Sky); North Carolina-Asheville (137/Big South); Ohio State (144.615/Big Ten); Kansas (92.363/Big XII); Long Beach State (74.1/Big West); Northeastern (129.916/Colonial); Tulsa (132.545/Conference USA); Oakland (84.583/Horizon); Penn (146.142/Ivy); Marist (120.375/Metro Atlantic); Eastern Michigan (102/MAC); Coppin State (109.181); Wichita State (123.636/Missouri Valley); Robert Morris (162/Northeast); New Mexico (111.888/Mountain West); Belmont (106.615/Ohio Valley); Stanford (113.727/Pac 12); Holy Cross (145.545/Patriot); Kentucky (108.923/SEC); Davidson (120.727/Southern); New Orleans (79.166/Southland); Southern U (83.2/SWAC); North Dakota State (119.272/Summit); Louisiana-Monroe (81.571/Sun Belt); Gonzaga (121.09/West Coast); and New Mexico State (121.8/WAC) 
 
Nonconference Skeds: Dish Me Up Some Soft-Serve Ice Cream  
On the flip side of things. … these schools can bow their heads in shame, and in most cases you best not have them on your schedule if you plan on being in position for an at-large berth come Selection Sunday:
 
New Hampshire (208.083/America East); Houston (241.25/American); Clemson (235.2/ACC); Northern Kentucky (200.873/Atlantic Sun); Duquesne (219.636/Atlantic 10); Seton Hall (197.25/Big East); Montana State (230.222/Big Sky); Presbyterian (261/Big South); Iowa (194.3/Big Ten); TCU (241.875/Big XII); Cal State-Northridge (242.076/Big West); James Madison (230.9/Colonial); Texas-San Antonio (243.9/Conference USA); Wright State (232.3/Horizon); Brown (213.583/Ivy); Monmouth (226.5/Metro Atlantic); Central Michigan (230.4/MAC); Hampton (220.916/MEAC); Loyola-Chicago (259.727/Missouri Valley); San Jose State (215/Mountain West); Central Connecticut (209.666/Northeast); Tennessee Tech (248.153/Ohio Valley); Oregon State (206.2/Pac 12); Navy (259.3/Patriot); Mississippi State (252.25/SEC); Georgia Southern (222.642/Southern); Incarnate Word (246/Southland); Alabama State (197/SWAC); Fort Wayne (236.285/Summit); Arkansas State (198.2/Sun Belt); Pepperdine (246.666/West Coast); and Texas-Pan American (241.071/WAC).
 
***Teams noted in bold italics are projected by RTSS to make the NCAA Tournament field.
 
Not Afraid to Schedule Major Conference Opponents
The following schools from Power 6 conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, Pac 12, SEC) have at least three Power 6 opponents on their nonconference schedules, a reasonable number to which a school like Minnesota should aspire every season. Please note that exempt neutral-site tournament games (i.e. Gophers vs. Syracuse @ Maui Invitational) are not included in the tally. In addition, though Louisville and Rutgers are both part of the American Athletic Conference this season, we’re counting the ‘Ville (ACC) and Rutgers (Big Ten) as major-conference teams because they’ll be joining Power 6 conferences in 2014-15.
 
5
Kentucky — vs. Baylor, LOUISVILLE, vs. Michigan State, @ North Carolina, vs. Providence
 
4
Alabama — vs. Oklahoma, TEXAS TECH, @ UCLA, XAVIER
Auburn — BOSTON COLLEGE, CLEMSON, vs. Illinois, @ Iowa State
Boston College — @ Auburn, @ Providence, @ Purdue, @ USC
Illinois — vs. Auburn, @ Georgia Tech, vs. Missouri, vs. Oregon
Kansas — @ Colorado, vs. Duke, @ Florida, GEORGETOWN
Michigan — ARIZONA, @ Duke, @ Iowa State, vs. Stanford
Michigan State — vs. Georgetown, vs. Kentucky, NORTH CAROLINA, @ Texas
Missouri — vs. Illinois, @ NC State, UCLA, WEST VIRGINIA
Texas Tech — @ Alabama, @ Arizona, @ Arizona State, LSU
Wisconsin — FLORIDA, MARQUETTE, vs. Saint John’s, @ Virginia
 
3
Arizona State — @ DePaul, MARQUETTE, TEXAS TECH
Baylor — vs. Colorado, vs. Kentucky
Clemson — @ Arkansas, @ Auburn, SOUTH CAROLINA
Colorado — vs. Baylor, GEORGIA, KANSAS
DePaul — ARIZONA STATE, @ Northwestern, OREGON STATE
Duke — vs. Kansas, MICHIGAN, vs. UCLA
Florida — FLORIDA STATE, KANSAS, @ Wisconsin
Georgetown — @ Kansas, vs. Michigan State, vs. Oregon
Georgia Tech — @ Georgia, ILLINOIS, @ Vanderbilt
Iowa State — AUBURN, IOWA, MICHIGAN
Marquette — @ Arizona State, OHIO STATE, @ Wisconsin
North Carolina — KENTUCKY, @ Michigan State, TEXAS
NC State — MISSOURI, NORTHWESTERN, @ Tennessee
Northwestern — DEPAUL, @ NC State, @ Stanford
Oregon — vs. Georgetown, vs. Illinois, @ Ole Miss
Purdue — BOSTON COLLEGE, vs. Butler, @ West Virginia
South Carolina — @ Baylor, @ Clemson, @ Oklahoma State
Syracuse — INDIANA, @ Saint John’s, VILLANOVA
Tennessee — NC STATE, VIRGINIA, @ Xavier
Texas — MICHIGAN STATE, @ North Carolina, VANDERBILT
UCLA — ALABAMA, vs. Duke, @ Missouri
Vanderbilt — @ Butler, GEORGIA TECH, @ Texas
West Virginia — @ Missouri, PURDUE, @ Virginia Tech
Xavier — @ Alabama, TENNESSEE, WAKE FOREST
 
By my count 35 of the 74 current or (near) future major-conference programs have scheduled — outside of their exempt tournament — at least three Power 6 programs. Six of those come from the Big Ten: Illinois; Michigan; Michigan State; Northwestern; Purdue; and Wisconsin. For the record, the Gophers have one such opponent, Florida State.
 
Year after year we hear how difficult it is for Minnesota to schedule home-and-homes and/or neutral-siters with major-conference programs, yet it appears that’s not exactly the case. Let’s be honest, the above list isn’t just a who’s who of college basketball’s traditionally elite programs. It includes plenty of schools the average college hoops fan wouldn’t expect to see on the list. Hopefully, the young and ambitious (that’s a good thing) Mr. Pitino recognizes that and starts a more desirable Gophers scheduling trend in 2014-15.