Gopher Football
Wisconsin Update . . .
Wisconsin is playing well so far this year, albeit against a pretty easy schedule to date. The Badgers sit at 5-1 with their wins coming against three easy non conference teams, Indiana and Northwestern. Their lone loss was to Michigan 27-13. In that game Wisconsin got off to a strong start with an opening drive touchdown and a 10-10 tie at halftime. After that it was all Michigan, as Wisconsin did not get a second half first down unitl there were 5 minutes left in the game. P.J. Hill was held to 54 yards rushing on 54 yards on 20 carries and John Stocco passed 22 of 42 for 236 yards. Since that game Wisconsin has rebounded nice with blowout wins against Northwestern and Indiana.
Minnesota Update
The Gophers will be trying to rebound from a heart breaking, gut wrenching 28-27 overtime loss to Penn State. After battling back in the 4th quarter to tie the game, the Gophers scored a touchdown on their first possession in overtime but missed the extra point. When Penn State took over, the Gophers thought they had a game won after Trumaine Banks batted away a 4th down pass, but a pass interference call gave Penn State new life and they went on to score a touchdown and won the game. That missed extra point, along with a dropped punt by Dominic Jones cost the Gophers the game. Some of the bright spots were big games from Bryan Cupito, Eric Decker, Matt Spaeth and Mike Sherels. The defense gave up a lot of yards but not a lot of points. On offense the running game was struggling but the passing game was humming on all cylinders.
Wisconsin on the ground
The Badger running game suffered a hit last year when All American junior Brian Calhoun decided to leave early for the NFL, but it didn’t take them long at all to find a capable replacement. Redshirt freshman P.J. Hill already has rushed for 847 yards (5.7/carry) and 9 touchdowns. Just to give a warning to Gopher fans who may see Hill and break out into a cold sweat, he is NOT Ron Dayne. But he will kind of remind you of him. At 5’10″ 245 pounds Hill is a load for any defense to bring down. Like Dayne, he’s a big runner running behind a good line who is in line to put up a ton of yards in his college career. In front is a pretty good offensive line. Senior Joe Thomas is the big name of group. At 6’6″ 310 pounds Thomas was considered a possible top 5 pick when he entered the NFL draft, but then in the Capital One bowl last January he tore his ACL while playing on the defensive line. He is back this year though and is the anchor at left tackle. The rest of the line is young, big and improving. Along with Thomas are a junior and three sophomores. The average size of the line is 6’6″ 320 pounds.
The Gopher rush defense is still struggling. Through three Big Ten games the Gophers are 7th in the conference, giving up 187 yards per game. I want to say that it’s because the Gophers have played good rushing opponents (which they have), but with teams like Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa on the horizon is pretty clear that the Gopher defense just is not that good right now. It could be a long day for the Gopher rushing defense this week if they can’t make significant improvements.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Wisconsin through the air
You wouldn’t have thunk it with all the great quarterbacks in the Big Ten, but through three games Bryan Cupito and Wisconsin quarterback John Stocco are ranked 1 & 2 in the conference in passing yards. It’s ironic how close their passing numbers are since Cupito and Stocco are often compared to each other. Like Cupito, Stocco is a 3rd year starter. Neither quarterback is horribly mobile, and each does a pretty good job at taking care of the football and makes good decisions. Stocco has had a field day against the hometown Gophers both times he’s faced them, throwing 265 yards per at 65% completion, throwing 2 TD’s and running for another one. But most importantly leading the Badger to two victories. Even though he’s not even listed as the starter, sophomore Travis Beckum leads the badgers in receiving with 23 catches for 315 yards. The athletic Beckum is on his way to stardom in Madison. The rest of the Wisconsin receivers are pretty anonymous, although junior starter Paul Hubbard did have 122 yards last week against Indiana.
Unfortunately for Minnesota, their pass defense has been about as bad as the rushing defense. Through 3 games, the Gopher defense is ranked 9th in the Big Ten in passing yards allowed, and even worse has allowed 7 touchdown passes while intercepting none. Forcing turnovers continues to be a huge problem for the defense as a whole. One positive is that the Gophers are doing a slightly better job than at least at generating quarterback pressure. Despite the increased sack total though the pass defense as a whole has not really improved.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Gophers on the ground
Wisconsin has a good front four, and could cause the Gopher offensive line some problems. The Badgers return all four of their starters from a year ago, led by sophomore end Matthew Shaughnessy. The Badger linebackers are also pretty solid; they have two very good players in senior Mark Zelewski and sophomore Jonathan Cassillas. Zelewski has two more tackles than Cassillas, but Cassillas leads in the team with 7 tackles for loss.
After a couple of sub-par weeks on the ground, this could be the week the Gopher ground game pulls through and has a good week. Michigan and Penn State are two of the better rush defenses in the conference and the Gophers did have some problems against them. Against Michigan they only rushed for 108 yards and against Penn State they only rushed for 68. Even though Wisconsin is ranked 4th in the conference in rush defense, they haven’t exactly been facing world beaters in that department. I think the Gophers need to rush the ball tomorrow to win, because with temps being cold and a little of wind possibly being a factor, not to mention Wisconsin’s solid secondary, passing the ball may not come as easy as it has the past couple weeks.
Advantage: Even
Gophers through the air
The strength of the Wisconsin defense is likely their safeties. Senior Joe Stellmacher is the leader of the Wisconsin defense. After being an honorable mention All-Big Ten pick last year, Stellmacher leads the team in tackles with 45 and has 2 interceptions which is second on the team. As a unit, the whole Badger secondary is an experienced group. Besides returning both starting safeties, both cornerbacks also return. Even though Jack Ikegwuonu and Allen Langford are only sophomores, both guys had several starts last year and are doing okay this year.
As I mentioned above, Bryan Cupito leads the Big Ten in passing for conference games so far this year with 256 yards a game. Cupito has come through in a big way for the Gophers so far seeing that the rushing offense is not doing nearly as well as it used to. Cupito is making good decisions and good throws, and for the most part the receivers have been responding. Matt Spaeth and Eric Decker had great games last week, joining Logan Payne as guys who can post a threat as receivers. Ernie Wheelwright continues to have problems hanging on to easy passes, but to his credit he did bounce back with a few good plays last week. Mike Chambers is also showing signs of emerging. So long as the receivers can hang onto the ball, the Gophers are developing into one of the better groups in the conference. Against the Badgers I think the Gophers will be presented with a good challenge. Wisconsin has a veteran group and they’ve done a good job so far this year. But I also believe in this Gopher passing game now so I do think the Gophers will be able to have some success (as long as the weather cooperates).
Advantage: Minnesota
Bottom Line
With every loss, the urgency to win for Minnesota becomes greater. At just 2-4, the Gophers are quickly running out of times to produce wins to become bowl eligible. With teams like Iowa and Ohio State still ahead, the Gophers need to beat teams in the middle of the conference, and so far they’re 0-2 against them. Unfortunately for the Gophers, they have not done well in Madison at all. They haven’t come within 14 points of beating Wisconsin in Madison since 1994, the last time they did beat them. On top of that, the Gophers don’t have a good history at all of bouncing back after tough losses. If you look back at the 5 most heart breaking losses of the decade, the Gophers have lost every game the followed. All of this just doesn’t add up to a Minnesota win. I think the Minnesota could beat Wisconsin, but I don’t think it will be tomorrow.
Prediction: Wisconsin 34 ““ Minnesota 22
Talk about the battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe on the Gopher Football Message Board.