Gopher Basketball
How will last year’s national championship teams fare this season?
Between the two teams that faced off last April in Atlanta, only one starter (Jamar Butler) returns for Ohio State and Florida. Each team starts the season outside of the preseason top 25, but ironically enough, both teams were there two years ago, when Florida was comprised of a bunch of unknown and untested sophomores and Thad Matta’s Buckeyes were coming off probation.
While both teams are very young and unknown, both will be throwing oodles of talent onto the court. Ohio State welcomes 7′ center Kosta Koufos, long range gunner Jon Diebler, and a few other prep phenoms onto a team that has holdovers Butler, David Lighty (expect a big year), and Othello Hunter. In a transitioning Big Ten, the Buckeyes look likely to compete for third place and do not seem likely to drop below sixth, so that should mean a return trip to the NCAA tournament. Florida loses their entire starting lineup plus their top big man reserve, but Walter Hodge, Dan Werner, and Marcus Speights all played minutes last year, with Hodge having a key role, and they’re joined by one of the top recruiting classes this year, lead by 6’6″ point/wing Nick Calathes, forwards Alex Tyus and Chandler Parsons, and crafty point guard Jai Lucas (the object of our optimistic affection when Tubby got hired last spring). The SEC will be competitive, but I think Florida will be right in the mix after Tennessee. Put it this way-I’d be very surprised if both these teams aren’t in the NCAA tournament, so I think they’re doing just fine.
Who is this year’s major conference sleeper?
The great thing about this preseason predictions is no one remembers what you’ve said by the time March rolls around, and on questions like this, you can swing as mighty as Rob Deer and miss and no one will hold you to it (I hope). Anyway, I’ll give you a deep sleeper first, that being Baylor. Since Scott Drew was hired to lead the Bears out of the abyss of the Dave Bliss scandal, he’s been assembling solid young talent in Waco, and he has another top 100 prep joining this season, shooting guard LaceDarius Dunn. Drew returns all of his main cogs from last year’s 15-16 team, and the Big 12 South should be a little weaker with Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech all losing top-flight talent. I don’t know if Baylor’s ready to make the leap, but I don’t think they’re too far away.
The sleeper team I’ve zeroed in on however is the Vanderbilt Commodores. Some might say they’re not a sleeper, but I haven’t seen them ranked in any top 25 polls yet, so I’m calling them a sleeper. The surprise Sweet 16 qualifier from last year lost a major talent in SEC Player of the Year Derrick Byars, but they return solid veterans in guard Alex Gordon (a former “œU” recruit), power forward Ross Neltner, and small forward Shan Foster, who has the potential to bring SEC Player of the Year honors back to Nashville for a second straight year. What really excites me about the Commodores is the freshman they’ve added in 6’10″ center Andrew Oglivie, an Aussie who dominated to the tune of 22 points and 10 rebounds a game in the under-19 championships this summer. This formidable balance between the backcourt and frontcourt could make this team a consistent presence in the top 25 and a candidate for a deep run in March.
Which highly ranked program will prove to be a disappointment this season?
Every year a top ranked preseason team or two crashes and burns because of injuries, overhype, or underachievement (I give you 2006-07’s Alabama, Connecticut, and LSU!) The tricky part is predicting which team will fall well shy of expectations because at this time of the year, no games have been played (first of many obvious statements you’ll hear from me in these previews). All that being said, I don’t trust Louisville being ranked so high this preseason (consensus top 10 pick). Yes, they are returning the majority of their players from a year ago, including multi-purpose forward Terrance Williams and sophomore point guard Edgar Sosa (who I really like and could make me look like a fool). The ‘Ville came on strong last season to make it into the tournament, but they made their run on the backs of some weaker Big East competition. Add into the mix that starting forward Juan Palacios is injured and out for the season, Derrick Character’s perpetual weight and character issues, that Sosa was hobbled this off-season by an ankle sprain, and the fact that David Padgett seems a perennial underachiever and I’m not sold on this team competing with Georgetown for the Big East title and a Final Four slot. The tools may be there, but I think Pitino’s bunch could also slip down the slope into oblivion this year.
Will the Dan Monson method of recruiting work better for another coach this season?
Dave Odom probably never considered his transition to South Carolina would be so difficult. Carving out a niche in a conference and state dominated by North Carolina, Duke, and N.C. State, I guess he figured a shift to the SEC and South Carolina would prove easier. Unfortunately for Odom, he now sits squarely on the hot seat after seven seasons with the Gamecocks that has produced only one NCAA tournament berth. He hopes to reverse his fortunes with ex-Cincinati point guard Devan Downey and ex-Georgia Tech shooting guard Zam Frederick comprising his new backcourt. Both these players are South Carolina natives and quite talented, with Downey particularly impressive. I believe Odom is a better coach than Dan Monson and I think his transfers are more talented than what we saw return home, but I don’t know if that’ll translate into an NCAA berth. If not, Odom might have to go casting for a job in the Big West conference himself.
Which new coaching hire will have the biggest impact this season?
Of course, we’d love for this answer to be Tubby Smith, Kentucky fans are assuming it’s Billy Gillispie, and Texas A&M fans are hoping its Mark Turgeon. I’m going to give the nod to Arizona’s new assistant Kevin O’Neill, who was a top assistant for Lute Olson before he embarked on his own head coaching career through stops at Marquette, Tennessee, Northwestern, and the NBA’s Toronto Raptors. O’Neill has returned to Tucson and the fire he brings to the Wildcats could be a blessing to a squad of talented, skilled athletes who have had a tough time competing recently in an increasingly physical Pac-Ten. If O’Neill can instill some defensive intensity to ‘Zona, they might contest for the Pac-10 title and the national championship. (it should also be noted, while Lute Olson is on his leave of absence, O’Neill will be the interim coach).
Okay smartass, which new head coach will experience the most success this season?
While I think Gillispie and Turgeon will get their teams to the NCAA tournament, I think Arkansas’ John Pelphrey has a chance to return some positive notoriety to Fayetteville. Stan Heath was relieved of his duties because of perceived underachievement, but the Razorbacks went to the NCAA tournament last spring and have every player of relevance returning to the team this year. The team is led by sublime sophomore Patrick Beverley, who is complimented by veteran point guard Gary Ervin and wing Sonny Weems with athletic height in Charles Thomas, Darian Townes, and Steven Hill. The Razorbacks could be very formidable this year which would earn Pelphrey much praise, but he’s definitely not stepping into an empty cupboard.
Who is this year’s Kevin Durant?
Time for that standard disclaimer-no one will be Kevin Durant, it is unfair to compare anyone to Durant, yada, yada, yada. With that out of the way, you might think I’m asking who will be this year’s elite freshman. In actuality, I’m looking for which elite recruit might sneak up and surprise people, as he’s overshadowed by more publicized freshman (if you recall, Greg Oden overwhelmingly had the nation’s attention in the preseason last year, and Durant was invisible by comparison).
Now that I’ve established my point, I’m looking towards another Big 12 South product. The names O.J. Mayo, Kevin Love, Eric Gordon, Michael Beasley and Derrick Rose have garnered much of the preseason hype, but Oklahoma’s 6’10″ forward Blake Griffin could follow a similar path to Durant. He’s a physical forward who can score on the block, but is athletic enough to take his game out on the wing (he also captured the slam dunk contest at the McDonald’s All-American game last spring, where he first caught my attention). Sooners’ head coach Jeff Capel has stated that he expects Griffin to be a big time impact guy, so you can expect to hear Griffin’s name before too long this season.
What should be this year’s best rivalry?
As sickening as the UNC-Duke rivalry can be, there’s little denying that they are special games even when one of the programs are down (a relative term with both programs). However, this series is heading towards Red Sox-Yankees overhype and the rivalry doesn’t seem that compelling this year. In fact, UNC-N.C. State looks more attractive before the season begins. Who does that leave us with? Well, Indiana-Illinois looks pretty interesting this year, but that’s due mostly to the Eric Gordon plot. Tennessee and Memphis is a mouth watering matchup, but since they are not in the same conference, it’s not quite as tasty as in-conference showdowns. Kansas and Kansas State also intrigues, but it’s hard to get too excited yet about the Wildcats, seeing as how they have a first time head coach leading talented but mercurial players. My vote for this year’s best rivalry goes to UCLA-USC. While UCLA has the pedigree and a true national championship contender, USC has the hype king, Ovinton J’Anthony Mayo, otherwise known as the next notorious O.J. to compete for Southern Cal. While Mayo’s transgressions are decidedly less benign than the other O.J., he nonetheless invites controversy, most recently with a broken jaw delivered to teammate Daniel Hackett, which UCLA’s super freshman Kevin Love dismissed claims of as accidental (USC maintains it was purely an accident). In America’s second largest city, this rivalry promises a lot of attention, and the talent on the court might match the hype it will surely receive.
Can the teams from Tennessee overcome their off-court distractions to reach their potential?
When you look at UT and Memphis, you can very easily see a potential national championship showdown. However, both programs seem to possess key players who could charitably be described as knuckleheads. Memphis reserves Shawn Taggart and Jeff Robinson got themselves in quite a pickle this summer when they were charged with inciting a riot and disorderly conduct. It turns out that the groundwork for their misdeeds was laid by starting center Robert Dozier, who seems to have a propensity to swing his fists on Beale Street and then duck away before the police arrive. I know it’s shocking to think that John Calipari would not only take such questionable character guys on his team, but then let them remain after they get into trouble (sarcasm thickly applied).
Meanwhile in Knoxville, starting center Duke Crews is currently suspended indefinitely because of marijuana possession and in late September starting guard Ramar Smith borrowed Wayne Chism’s car late at night, which wouldn’t have been a problem except Chism was unaware that Smith had done so, which still wouldn’t have been an issue except police found Chism’s car abandoned and wrecked. Smith was never charged with a crime, but the circumstances are suspicious (if somewhat hilarious also).
Will it matter in the end? Well, if players are knocked out of commission with suspensions it obviously will. Also, you have to wonder what consummate gamers like Chris Lofton and Chris Douglas-Roberts are thinking when they see their teammates jeopardizing their seasons? Off the court issues have waylaid many a team, college basketball fans in the state of Tennessee must be crossing their fingers that it won’t occur with their teams.
Why should you make sure you have all your Christmas shopping done by December 22nd?
There’s several reasons why you should have things wrapped up by that date, not least of all that sheer panic that will set in when you’re patrolling barren store shelves in a futile quest to avoid the dog house with a variety of family members. But another reason to have things comfortably in place by the Saturday before Christmas is because the day is primed to be an early Christmas present for college basketball fans. In addition to a rematch of last season’s national championship game between Florida and Ohio State (in Columbus), two other Big Ten squads host high profile teams when Texas visits Michigan State and UCLA travels to Ann Arbor where John Beilein attempts to defeat Ben Howland for a third straight year. An intriguing contest between Xavier and Tennessee will take place in Cincinnati that afternoon and the always entertaining interstate battle between Illinois and Missouri occurs that evening in St. Louis. The day’s true heavyweight game appears to be the contest between Georgetown and Memphis, featuring two squads favored to patrol the River Walk in San Antonio come April. So, if an irate partner doesn’t spur you to wrap up your Christmas shopping by the 22nd, envision yourself wrapped in a blanket on the couch, drinking some hot cocoa, and flipping through a potpourri of intriguing college basketball games.
Which program is overwhelmingly the most underrated college basketball program in the nation?
21 Post-season appearances in the last 25 years (17 NCAA, 4 NIT), accomplished in two mid-major conferences under five different coaches. This is Xavier University, a private Jesuit university located in Cincinnati and overshadowed by the large public university with the city’s namesake. The head coaches have often used the job as a leaping point to bigger, major conference opportunities (Bob Staak to Wake Forest, Pete Gillen to Providence, Skip Prosser to Wake Forest, Thad Matta to Ohio State, and Sean Miller to ???), yet the program maintains a steady impressive consistency. The rosters are devoid of McDonald’s All-Americans, and very few top 100 talents, yet they’ve produced 4 NBA first round draft picks in Brian Grant, Tyrone Hill, David West, and James Posey, all of whom had long, solid professional careers.
Located a rung below the major conferences, yet in a highly competitive conference (Atlantic 10), that disallows the attention a Gonzaga garners, faced with a head coaching carousel, overshadowed by other programs in its own city, not to mention state, Xavier continues to deliver. Oh yeah, and they have graduated every basketball player that’s stayed with the program through their senior year since 1985. What should you expect from Xavier this year? Another twenty win season, another NCAA berth, and little national acclaim.
Which basketball team will be the most entertaining on the court?
The definition of entertainment depends on the individual. For some, watching a defensive battle where each possession of the ball produces mass effort to prevent the other squad from scoring is the height of entertainment. Me, I’m not one of those guys. Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy those games when played at a high level, but for pure entertainment, give me the teams that sprint up and down the court, pressing on defense, sprinting out on three man breaks with a big man trailing close behind, a spot up shooter on the wing and a springy athlete ready for the alley oop. With that as my template, I look to three teams this year for the entertainment quotient-the Memphis Tigers, Tennessee Volunteers, and Oregon Ducks. Since I’m afraid Oregon’s going to receive limited media coverage this year, since Memphis will disappear once conference play starts, I’m going to give the nod to Tennessee since we’ll be sure to see many of their conference games from January onward. Add in the fact that master provocateur and entertainer Bruce Pearl will be roaming the sidelines (sometimes in a blaze orange sports coat) and the Volunteers gets the nod.
Which basketball team will be the most entertaining off the court?
Once again, three candidates jump out. Kansas State is intriguing because they promoted Frank Martin to head coach, whose main asset seemed to be his ability to keep prized recruits Michael Beasley and Bill Walker committed to Manhattan. Martin has never been a head coach at the college level and he will be stepping into a job with high expectations, framed by Beasley, regarded by many as the top prep recruit from last year, but often questioned for consistent effort. Walker is coming off a torn ACL, and the Wildcats also return senior David Hoskins, a 14 points per game swingman from last year. It’ll be interesting to see how a rookie coach manages this very talented, yet potentially combustible team.
Meanwhile in Indiana, Kelvin Sampson marches towards NCAA glory while seeming to wholly disregard the tome that is the NCAA rulebook. His methods are incensing a fair number of Hoosier fans, while many more prefer to focus on the exploits of Eric Gordon, D.J. White, and the rest of the Hoosiers who may take them places not seen since Keith Smart was knocking down that 15 foot jumper in 1987. In addition, one of the season’s most intriguing subplots will play out at least twice when ex-Illini commit Gordon faces Illinois, particularly when they travel to Champaign.
However, the team I find most fascinating to watch from afar is USC, due largely to the fact that O.J. Mayo deigned the Trojans and the city of Los Angeles worthy of his talents. I will admit, first impressions of Mayo have given me a negative impression, but he may not be that different than many others who wear their arrogance without the national spotlight. Regardless, I am fascinated how veteran coach Tim Floyd will manage the O.J. Mayo circus and intrigued to see if Mayo is worth the considerable hype he carries with him.
Which coaches may be hoping the housing market rebounds soon?
Over the past couple seasons, so many major conference head coaching jobs have turned over, it seems unlikely we’ll see much movement at the end of this season, at least in regards to firings. However, the following coaches might want to call Ernie Kent to see how to rip off a twenty win season and run to a Sweet Sixteen, just to be safe: Oregon State’s Jay John, South Carolina’s Dave Odom, Miami (Fla.)’s Frank Haith, Penn State’s Ed DeChellis, and LSU’s John Brady. Georgia’s Dennis Felton made a brave move by kicking off his leading returning scorer in Takais Brown and suspending Mike Mercer for 15 games, since the Bulldogs have struggled under his direction. It would be very bad form for Georgia to fire Felton since he replaced the scandal plagued Jim Harrick era and is instituting tough academic standards, but this is the SEC, never noted for putting academics above athletic results. Another interesting situation is shaping up down in Stillwater, where Oklahoma State fell apart last season in Sean Sutton’s first year at the helm. Mario Boggan and JamesOn Curry are gone, making this season look pretty bleak. There’s no way Okie State forces out Sutton after two years, particularly with Eddie Sutton nearby, but I have a feeling the Gallagher-Iba crowd won’t tolerate too much losing.
Are Duke and Connecticut still relevant?
This could be construed as a silly question, since we’re talking about two of the top five programs in the last fifteen years. However, the Duke name doesn’t carry the cache it did just three years ago, surpassed by not just its neighbor UNC, but also overlooked as a national championship contender. Meanwhile, it looks like it will be a struggle for Connecticut to return to the NCAA tournament, which would be two years in a row where Jim Calhoun is on the outside looking in.
It’s always dangerous to overlook Duke, no matter how much I’d like to. Josh McRoberts decided to go the Shavlik Randolph route, leaving the Blue Devils with shaky point guard Greg Paulus and solid but injury-tinged wing DeMarcus Nelson to lead a very young Duke team that has not experienced the success that the Dukies think is their privilege. Heck, it makes one wonder if Dick Vitale will start ignoring Coach K’s calls and come up with excuses why he can’t get together with him. However, the recruiting class is top notch again, lead by forward Kyle Singler, who sounds like a Mike Dunleavy Jr. clone (the nearly great college version, not the mediocre pro version), and two highly regarded wings in Taylor King and Nolan Smith. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dukies rise to the top 5 sometime during the regular season, but I don’t see them making much noise come March.
Things seem a quite a bit more mediocre in Connecticut. The Huskies did not lose anyone off last year’s young team, but they also don’t seem to have any of the elite talent we’ve been so used to witnessing pass through Storrs. Jerome Dyson had a solid freshman year at shooting guard, Jeff Adrien is formidable on the block, and Hasheem Thabeet is intimidating on defense, but these guys don’t resemble Ray Allen, Charlie Villaneuva, and Emeka Okefor. A bigger issue is they don’t appear to have a point guard on the roster like they used to have with Marcus Williams, Khalid El-Amin, or Kevin Ollie. It could be that so much talent flowed so quickly through Storrs that it’s going to take a couple years to regroup, but one doesn’t see Jim Calhoun exercising a lot of patience with that approach.
Which mid-major has the best chance to pull a George Mason this season?
The Patriots magical run to the Final Four two years ago not only was historic on the court, but is sure to cause the university to cement a spot in the popular lexicon for years, as every March, the question will be asked “œare there any teams out there capable of pulling a George Mason?” While you can look at the preseason rankings and say it’s unlikely that will occur, there were probably fifty teams that seemed more likely than George Mason to make the Final Four two years ago when the season started. I’ll give you a few mid-majors to keep an eye upon, excluding Gonzaga, Xavier, Butler, Nevada, and Southern Illinois, teams that hardly could be considered Cinderellas, due to their consistent success over the past few years.
Davidson seems primed to be this year’s Winthrop, a dangerous team capable of winning against nearly anyone, lead by one of the nation’s best players, shooting guard Stephen Curry. Utah State could emerge out of the WAC, lead by senior shooting guard Jaycee Carroll and their crafty head coach Stew Morrill. VCU was a tournament darling last year by upsetting Duke in the opening round, and lead by point guard Eric Maynor and a frenetic pressing style, they’ll likely make some noise again in March. South Alabama could be a deep sleeper from the Sun Belt Conference with former coach Ronnie Arrow returning to repeat past glories for the Jaguars.
Which transfers promise to have a big impact for their teams this season?
Often overlooked or simply forgotten, a transfer can have a bigger impact on a team than a callow freshman. When you think of Ohio State last season, Greg Oden and Mike Conley come to mind immediately, but it was Ron Lewis’ clutch three pointer against Xavier in the tourney which kept the Buckeyes alive and propelled them to the title game. It should be noted Lewis came to Columbus after two seasons at Bowling Green.
That being stated, here are the transfers to watch this year-the aforementioned duo of South Carolina’s Devan Downey (Cinncy) and Zam Frederick (Georgia Tech) give Dave Odom a veteran, talented backcourt; Mississippi welcomes wing David Huertas, who was last seen playing solid reserve minutes for Florida’s first championship team; Mizzou has forward Demarre Carroll, coach Mike Anderson’s nephew eligible after two solid years at Vanderbilt; N.C. State will be relying on point guard and Iowa State transfer Farnold Degand to lead their promising team.
The transfer expected to have the biggest impact however is Tennessee’s Tyler Smith, who was able to gain immediate eligibility from the NCAA as he returned home to be his ailing father. His father died just a couple weeks ago, and Smith will undoubtedly be playing this season with his father at the forefront of his mind, a potentially special season for the Volunteers.
Who might be college basketball’s version of Pete Carroll?
Remember when USC hired their third or fourth choice, the failed NFL head coach considered to be a buffoon by many commentators and an indication that USC was no longer an elite program? Well, Carroll dismissed those notions rather quickly. I see very similar parallels between Carroll and N.C. State’s Sidney Lowe. Rebuffed by John Calipari and Rick Barnes, N.C. State turned to their point guard from the ’83 championship team, a coach whose NBA coaching record stood at 79-228 (.257 winning percentage) while with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Vancouver Grizzlies. The hiring was scoffed upon by many (including me) and a sign that N.C. State was foolish to think they were on the same level as their more esteemed in-state rivals from Chapel Hill and Durham.
One season in, Sidney Lowe’s not looking like such a foolish hire. A surprise run to the ACC tournament game vaulted the team into the NIT where they matriculated to the quarterfinals. Lowe has a young, intriguing team that returns its top four scorers from last season. Those four players are between 6’5″ and 6’10″, creating major headaches for opposing coaches, particularly sophomore forward and leading scorer and rebounder Brandon Costner, who also lead the team in 3 point shooting. Add to this mix Iowa State transfer Farnold Degand at point guard and McDonald’s All-American J.J. Hickson in the post, and you have some pretty high hopes in Raleigh and a pretty good chance you’ll be seeing Lowe’s snazzy red sports coat plenty in the near future.
Who will be the national Player of the Year?
Unlike the presidential elections that we’re sure to see plenty of ads during this college basketball season, there appears to be a clear-cut favorite for this award-North Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough. The junior post player is a two-time All-American for the preseason #1 team in the nation, one of the nation’s glamour programs. His intensity is loved by the television cameras and he is a great college player. I’d bet on Hansbrough over the field right now. However, if he fails to achieve such heights, here are some other names to consider: Michigan State’s Drew Neitzel, Tennessee’s Chris Lofton, Texas’ D.J. Augustin. If a freshman was to repeat Kevin Durant’s feat, my money would be on Indiana’s Eric Gordon.
Who will cut down the nets in San Antonio on April 7th?
I thought I’d throw out that date for you so you can mark the calendar. There are some really solid teams on paper before the season starts. UNC has the preseason nod and promises to be an elite team with Tyler Hansborough, Ty Lawson, and Wayne Ellington leading the way. Kansas always looks good on paper and this season’s no different. Indiana and Michigan State could represent the Big Ten, while Georgetown will be formidable out of the Big East. As mentioned before, the state of Tennessee has two potentially special squads in UT and Memphis.
All that being stated, I see UCLA as being the team to beat this season. Coming off consecutive Final Four appearances, the Bruins add premier post player Kevin Love, reputed to be the best passing big man since Wes Unseld (I have to assume that’s extremely high praise). Love’s presence allows Luc Mbah Moute to move out away from the basket, Josh Shipp should be fully recovered from hip surgery, and they are lead by veteran point guard Darren Collison. I do believe it’s time for Ben Howland to join the ranks of coaches who possess a national championship, and it will be well-deserved by this defensive minded tactician. Playing in this year’s elite conference, the Bruins seem primed to add to their record 11 national titles, and that’s my prediction for how the 2007-08 season will conclude.
Coming Wednesday: 25 Players Under the Radar
Previous article: Why College BB Rules.
Talk about college basketball on our Gopher Basketball message board.