Gopher Football
Northwestern update
Offense
As they have for the past 10 seasons Northwestern runs a spread offense. So far this season they have run twice as much as they’ve thrown, but 67% of their total yardage has come through the air. The challenge for the Gophers will be not only to be able to defend both the run and the pass, but also to keep up with the pace. Northwestern likes to operate of a quick no-huddle which has the potential to leave opponents sucking for air.
The obvious key to the Northwestern offense is QB Mike Kafka. Gopher fans have tried to forget that Kafka is the quarterback who ran at will against the Gophers last year, gaining 217 yards before all was said and done. There are two reasons this will not happen again. First, the Gophers are better this year. The Gopher linebackers have been vastly improved, and have been the best unit on defense so far this year. Second, for this game last year, Kafka was an unknown threat to the Gopher defense. Kafka was only playing because starter C.J. Bacher had been injured the previous week, and it’s obvious the Gophers had no idea what would be happening to them.
Even if the Gophers are prepared for Kafka on the ground this time around, they’ll also need to be equally wary of his throwing ability. Kafka was named co-Big Ten offensive player of the week after throwing 35-42 for 390 yards against Syracuse last week. Clearly the Northwestern offense was clicking, and it will be up to the Gophers to disturb some of that rhythm this week.
Northwestern is down to their second string at running back. Starter Stephen Simmons will miss his second consecutive game with an ankle injury, leaving the starting job to former walk-on sophomore Jacob Schmidt. This should help the Gophers defense out. Schmidt is not a huge threat on the ground, and if Northwestern goes option, the Gopher defense can take the liberty of assuming Kafka will keep it.
Perhaps the most surprising factor of Kafka’s 35-completion performance last week is that he has that many receivers that can catch the ball. Northwestern came into this year losing their four most productive pass catchers last year, Eric Peterman, Ross Lane, Rasheed Ward and Tyrell Sutton. Despite these losses, Northwestern has not missed a beat, they are just spreading the ball around to different players. Heading into this game, Andrew Brewer, Drake Dunsmore, Zeke Markshausen & Demetrius Fields all have at least 11 receptions.
The Wildcat OL is somewhat similar to the Gopher offensive line under Glen Mason, not terribly big ““ averaging 6’4″ 295 lbs ““ but with above average athleticism. Northwestern needs this type of line so their players don’t get winded running their no huddle offense. The line is very experienced ““ All five starters have at last 10 career starts, and 3 are only sophomores.
Defense
Defensively Northwestern is a team that is recovering from several injuries. The big story is the recovery (or lack thereof) of Corey Wooton at defensive end. Wooton is easily Northwestern’s most dangerous player on defense, but he may not be 100% yet because of a knee injury suffered in the Alamo Bowl last year against Missouri. Even if the knee is not completely healed, an 80% Wooton is still better than most defensive ends. Wooton recorded 10 sacks last season, and at 6’7″ 280 pounds is a handful to block.
The Wildcats did return all four starters in the secondary from a season ago, but staying healthy has been a problem. Part of the reason Northwestern’s secondary got shredded last week against Syracuse was because top CB Sherrick McManis was out. Complicating matters was that reserve CB Justan Vaughn missed the game as well. Good news for the Wildcats is that McManis ““ who was an honorable-mention All-Big Ten selection a season ago ““ is back this week. This is good timing for Northwestern; they’ll need to fix their pass coverage in a hurry if they want to slow down Eric Decker. Another defender back from injury is Nate Williams. The junior LB had 66 tackles a season ago and will be a boost in the middle for the Cats.
Gopher Update
If a game against Northwestern were ever going to be a statement game for the Gopher football team, this might be one. The Gophers have a realistic shot to win the next three games, and to head into Ohio State/Penn State at 5-1. However, you can’t be 5-1 until you are 3-1, and that is what the Gophers must focus on right now. A loss to Northwestern won’t kill the Gophers season, but for a program that is hoping to take the next step, this is a game you would like to win.
As for the game itself, it will be tough. I don’t need to re-hash the Gophers seemingly constant struggles with Northwestern (but I will below, sorry!) to make the point that Northwestern can not be taken lightly. They have a QB who can beat you with his arms and legs, the players know the offensive system, the game is at Northwestern, and they have a slew of players returning from injury.
If the Gophers were clicking on all cylinders maybe I wouldn’t be so worried, but the fact is the Gophers have a long way to go, especially on offense. The Gophers will have to play a focused, well-executed game to come out with a victory in this one.
Health-wise, the Gophers appear to be in great shape. Marcus Sherels returning from his injury is huge, because the Gophers will need his coverage skills against the sharp-passing Wildcat offense. Derrick Onwuachi may be back. Eric Decker dinged an ankle but is supposed to be ok. One area of concern is Nate Triplett, he may have injured his hamstring. Not many people have noticed, but Triplett is currently #5 in the nation in tackles, so his playing will be important.
Keys to the game
1. Knock the NU offense out of rhythm ““ In order to complete 35 passes like Mike Kafka did last week, you have to get into a rhythm. The receivers & QB have to be on the same page, and their timing has to be perfect. To keep this from happening again, there are a few things the Gophers ca do.
“¢ First, play physical. Preferably you can play tight coverage on the receivers and try to interrupt the timing of their routes.
“¢ Second, the defensive line needs to get their hands up. Chances are many throws will occur too quickly to get the QB, so the next best thing for the line after a sack will be to bat a few passes down.
“¢ Third, keep the gains on first & second down short. Having second and short situations plays right into the strength of a team like Northwestern, and if this happens it will really force the Gopher defense back on its heels, since it will not know whether to expect run or pass.
2. Dominate the Special Teams battle ““ The one area where the Gophers have a decided advantage over Northwestern is special teams, and I think the Gophers could put themselves in a really good position to win if they can make some things happen here. Last season Northwestern ranked 10th in kickoff returns and in 6th in coverage, 8th in punting and 6th in returns. They were 8th in FG percentage, and 11th in PATs. So far this season the Gopher special teams have done very well in most categories, against very good competition. The Gopher special teams needs to be a difference maker in this game.
3. Pound the Rock ““ It’s a phrase we’ve been hearing all year, but it’s something we’ve yet to see on the field. In this game, Northwestern can’t help but ignore the run and do everything they can to stop Eric Decker, so if the Gophers are ever going to get it together and crank out a solid game on the ground, it could be this one. If the Gophers can get the ground game together, it will make the Weber to Decker combination all the more lethal. I think if the Gophers can manage to get 150 yards on the ground (108 is the high so far this year), they will win.
What will happen
The Wildcats have the hot QB right now and the offense is clicking. But what I like about the Gophers again, are the linebackers. Mike Kafka can run and throw the ball, but I think that with the speed and overall ability of the Gopher linebackers, they’re in a better position to slow him down than they were last season. I think Northwestern accumulates some yards, but will struggle to put the ball in the endzone. Meanwhile, the Gopher offense will be helped out by a couple more great returns, and will have just enough to squeeze out a few TDs.
Gophers on the ground: Advantage Northwestern
Gophers through the air: Advantage Minnesota
Wildcats on the ground: Advantage Minnesota
Wildcats through the air: Northwestern
Special Teams: Advantage Minnesota
Prediction: Gophers 24 ““ Northwestern 19
Random Notes
Based on the recent history of games between these two teams, this is a tough one to call. This series has produced some of the wackiest, most unlikely events of any opponent this decade. So no matter what it may look like on paper, expect the unexpected in this game.
– In 2000, the Gophers blew a 21-point second half lead, and then lost the game on a game-ending Hail Mary.
– In 2002, Benji Kamrath was the starter for the Gophers at QB for an injured Asad Abdul-Khaliq. The Gophers responded by throwing the ball only 9 times while rushing 70 times, in a 45-42 win.
– In 2007, the Gophers blew another 21 point lead to Northwestern and lost in 2 OTs.
– In 2008, Northwestern won the game on the last-minute INT return for a TD.
The teams have a common opponent in Syracuse with an edge to the Gophers. Syracuse is the worst team the Gophers have played so far, and for Northwestern it’s the toughest, so the Gophers are definitely more battle tested heading into this one.
Northwestern is 7-4 against the Gophers since 1994.
Northwestern is very close to being 1-2. The Wildcats lost a 21-0 lead against Eastern Michigan, before coming back to kick a game-winning, last-minute FG to pull out the win at home.
Consider betting the over. Both teams have scored in double-digits the last 19 games of this series.
The Gophers are 3-7 in their last 10 games in the week before the Wisconsin game. The last time the Gophers played at Northwestern the week before a Wisconsin game was in 1999, with the Gophers winning 33-14.
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