Gopher Basketball
Minnesota’s 60-57 loss earlier this week to a poor Indiana team was unfortunate. Now, the Gophers must quickly leave memories of Wednesday night behind and try to get a win or two against arguably the toughest remaining opponents they’ll face during the Big Ten’s regular season in Ohio State and Illinois (Thursday, 8pm CT).
The first half of the Indiana game was disgraceful. Turnovers, poor defensive rebounding, inability to score and getting posterized/Pritch-slapped by an unathletic country bumpkin who normally never shoots the ball all resulted in a 12 point first half deficit. The Gophers cleaned up a lot of things in the second half and, thanks in large part to freshman Austin Hollins’ 13 point, 5 rebound and 3 steal performance, were able to make a game out of it. I do not like to call out free throws as the reason for losing a game, but in this one it’s difficult not to. Two significant parts of Minnesota’s game are offensive rebounding and getting to the line. They did a fairly good job of doing both against Indiana. In addition, the effective field goal percentage and turnover rates of both teams evened out for the game. The 11-22 performance at the line really stings.
In the first 21 games this season, when Minnesota:
had a lower offensive rebounding percentage (OR%) and free throw rate (FTR) than its opponent, they were 0-2 (Virginia and @Purdue);
had a higher OR%, but a lower FTR, they were 1-2;
had a higher FTR, but a lower OR%, they were 3-1; and,
had a higher OR% and FTR, they were 12-0.
For the first time this season, Minnesota lost a game in which they had a higher OR% and FTR. Of course, while the Gophers were 11/22 from the line, Indiana was 13/15. Even Blake Hoffarber shot blanks on technical freebies after Victor Oladipo was cited for hanging on the rim. Frustrating.
The Team
It would be my pleasure to tell you all about the shortcomings of this Ohio State team, but there really isn’t much to speak of. They rank among the nation’s best when it comes to both offense and defense. Sure, the Buckeye bench is extremely short, but their seven man rotation is a complementary mix of veterans and freshmen. True freshman Jared Sullinger is the real deal and worth the price of admission, but a trio of upperclassmen each average double-figure scoring as well.
Back on January 9 in Columbus, Minnesota fell behind early as they often do and trailed by as much as 18 points with 8:31 to play. Ohio State struggled to score late, converting their last field of the game with more than 5 minutes to play. Austin Hollins attempted a field goal to tie it at the end of the regulation, but William Buford was able to deflect the shot (or if you live in reality, replace “deflect the shot” with “foul without getting called for the hack”) and time expired with the scoreboard showing a 67-64 margin in favor of the then-#2 Buckeyes.
There were more than 40 fouls called in the game and multiple players from each team were in foul trouble. Minnesota converted an impressive 24/27 from the line (88.9%), which seems almost impossible based on their usual performance this season (64.7%). Ohio State did knock down 8 of 22 three-point shots, but their 2-point field goal shooting was frustrated by Minnesota as the Buckeyes went just 14/34, or 41.2%, significantly down from their season average of 54.5%. Minnesota shot a solid 48.6% from the field if you exclude an ugly 2/10 performance from Al Nolen (2/5 3FG), but several turnover-filled field goal droughts hurt badly:
Can’t Buy a Bucket:
** 1st half: from 15:05 – 9:43 (5:22): A 10-10 tie became a 17-12 deficit for Minnesota in between field goals. Gophers went 0/2 with 3 turnovers during this stretch.
** 1st half: from 7:22 – 1:21 (6:01): A 2 point OSU lead, 20-18, balloons to 30-18 when Minnesota goes 0/4 with 2 turnovers.
** 1st/2nd halves: 0:24 (1st) – 15:34 (2nd) (4:50): 32-22 Ohio State becomes 39-26 thanks to 0/4 shooting and 3 turnovers.
Ohio State is an excellent team, but I do not expect them to finish the regular season with no losses. They move into a relatively rough stretch of the schedule starting with Minnesota. The Gophers are capable of pulling out a victory in this one, but it will have to be done in an ugly, physical manner. If Minnesota can get to the line, minimize turnovers, get offensive rebounds, keep OSU’s shooting percentage down and stars align, pigs fly and seas part, the Gophers have a great chance to win this thing. During Tubby’s tenure, the home team has always won when these two teams play. In the end, however, I think the Buckeyes are simply a much better team. My pick: Ohio State by 6.
The Players
#0 Jared Sullinger
6’9″, 280 lbs, freshman. 31.0 mpg, 18.0 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 1.0 spg, 58.2% FG.
Sullinger is the reigning Big Ten freshman of the week. Not a big deal anymore as he has now collected that honor 10 times. His teammates Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft are the only other Big Ten players to win the award this season. Elite rebounder with great offensive skills, Jared also has four Big Ten player of the week awards. He can get the Minnesota big men in foul trouble quickly. Not a shot blocker, but he’s a big piece of mass to get around when working on the inside. Good hands, does not turn the ball over.
#52 Dallas Lauderdale
6’8″, 255 lbs, senior. 17.9 mpg, 4.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.8 bpg.
Solid rebounder with amazing length which helps him to be a very good defender and top notch shot blocker. Offers very little offensively and is a liability from the line (6/21, 28.6%). Lauderdale will start, but frequently sees few minutes, mostly in favor of freshman point guard Aaron Craft. Don’t let the 18 minutes a game fool you – he’s an important contributor who deserves to be applauded if for nothing more than the fact he can still compete against college kids despite being 48 years of age.
#23 David Lighty
6’5″, 220 lbs, senior. 30.9 mpg, 12.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.6 spg.
Fifth-year guy that does it all on both sides of the court. Shoots 45.7% from the field, with about a third of his shots coming from behind the arc (32/76 for 42.1%). Has scored in double figures 15 times this season, including the first game against Minnesota when he heated up for 19 points in 26 minutes before fouling out.
#33 Jon Diebler
6’6″, 205 lbs, senior. 34.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg, 2.5 apg, 2.2 rpg.
I’d dis the guy, but he’s really not that much different than a taller version Blake Hoffarber. Shoots 48.8% from the field, including 47.4% from three-point range which is where most of his shots are launched from (137/170 3FGA/FGA). Elite shooter that cannot be left with any room. He’ll be the Big Ten’s career 3-point leader within the next 2 or 3 games. Does not turn the ball over.
#44 William Buford
6’5″, 205 lbs, junior. 30.3 mpg, 13.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.2 apg.
Can get the mid-range game rolling and will also convert from deep if the shot is there (36/82 3FG, 43.9%). Loves to shoot the ball.
#4 Aaron Craft
6’2″, 195 lbs, freshman. 28.3 mpg, 6.8 ppg, 4.7 apg, 2.7 rpg.
Craft comes off the bench, but does so early and often. Good defender, solid young point guard. Doesn’t look to shoot first, but can knock it down when he lets it go. 52/106 or 49.1% from the field this year, including 20/47 or 42.6% from deep. Does find himself turning the ball over too often at times. I don’t know much about his personal life, but would warn any children to stay at least 100 feet away from him after watching the following (viewing is not advised for anyone). In this YouTube video also featuring Diebler and Sullinger, Aaron Craft makes Liberace look like a tough guy.
#1 Deshaun Thomas
6’6″, 230 lbs, freshman. 15.6 mpg, 8.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg.
This athletic lefty is a gunner. Loves to push it offensively and carries an impressive 60.2 2-point field goal percentage. He’s a kid that could easily be a 14 ppg scorer a year from now. Can really get after it on the offensive boards.
Gophers’ Starting Lineup; Hoffarber at Point Guard
As I had stated when Nolen had surgery and again before the Indiana game, my starting lineup would have been Hoffarber, Hollins, Williams, Mbakwe and Sampson. That starting lineup continues to get my vote and we may finally see it on Sunday. Hollins had a great performance in the second half on Wednesday, but needs to follow it up with another solid effort against Ohio State.
As for Hoffarber at the point, I think the only reasonable option is to keep him there. Blake has struggled with turnovers in the past three games, giving it up 10 times (3.3/game) while he had turned it over just 31 times in the first 19 games of the year (1.6/game). There have been only two games in which he has turned it over more than 3 times (4 each in the Northwestern and @Indiana games). Still, some of these are not a direct result of his new responsibilities and I can’t imagine how high the turnover count would run if we had someone else at point.
Getting Hoffarber shots has always been a challenge. Just because he’s the one bringing the ball up the court does not mean we can’t continue to work to get him decent looks. The guy that crosses half court with the ball doesn’t become ineligible to shoot, so I’m not buying the claim that by having Hoff play point guard we are erasing all of his offensive potential. In fact, let’s look at some numbers comparing the first 19 games of the year with the most recent 3:
13.7 ppg…44.3 FG%…10.1 FGA/game…39.8 3FG%…6.5 3FGA/game…80.8 FT%…2.7 FTA/game
16.3 ppg…40.6 FG%…10.7 FGA/game…41.2 3FG%…5.7 3FGA/game…84.2 FT%…6.3 FTA/game
The additional trips to the line have resulted in increased scoring. The FG% is down from 44% to 41%, but if just one more shot would have fallen over the past few games, the 41% becomes 44%.