Gopher Basketball
Last season, these two teams played just once. That game was in late February at a time where both teams were bubble-bound. After a brutal first half that saw Illinois shoot 22.6% from the field (7/31) and ended with Minnesota leading 24-14, the Gophers managed to expand the lead to 19 points with 7:11 to play. Then things started to fall apart. With just over a minute to play, the lead had been cut to one point. Minnesota escaped with the 62-60 victory, although Illinois had 50% more field goal attempts (72 (36 3FGA) to 48 (15 3FGA)), marking the first victory in Champaign for Minnesota in 14 years. The Illini’s 31.9 FG% for the game was their lowest of the entire 2009-10 season.
Nearly a year later and both teams are again NCAA hopefuls with work to do. Each one of Minnesota’s remaining games is tough to call, but especially the next three (@ Iowa and @Penn State follow Illinois) look like they could easily go either way. This is not a must win for either team, but there’s no doubt a victory would be extremely helpful to the team that claims it.
The Team
Illinois comes into Williams Arena having lost five of their past seven games. This is a team that returned all five starters and has a good mix of experience and talented youth. They should be performing better than Minnesota, but they have not been. Illinois has not met expectations and it has been disappointing enough that I believe some of their supporters aren’t at all sad that this group of seniors will be moving on. When a team returns 89% of its points, 79% of its rebounds and 85% of its minutes played, plus brings in a very good recruiting class, it’s fair to expect more than Illinois has delivered. You would hope such an experienced team wouldn’t be 1-6 in games decided by six points or less. They have plenty of talent, but as a group they have not been able to get it done. By the way, Illinois does have reason to look forward to the future as they have lined up another stellar class for 2011 which will likely be the second best in the conference behind Ohio State’s.
On Thursday, if Illinois is shooting the ball well, they should win. This year, when the Illini have an effective field goal percentage of 50% or better they are 15-1. When their eFG dips below 50%, they are 0-7. (As a comparison, Minnesota is 9-2 and 7-5, respectively).
Things to know about Illinois:
* They CAN shoot the ball very well. On the season, their three-point average is an excellent 41.0% and they shoot a decent 50% on their two-point shots. The issue is that they are ridiculously inconsistent and some of their guys have been bad-to-awful lately (McCamey, Richardson, Cole included). This is a team that went 12/23 from deep in a victory over Gonzaga one night and two weeks later goes 4/17 in a loss to Paul Carter and UIC. Going 5/18 against Missouri didn’t help their cause and they lost. They followed that game up with a 13/18 performance at Iowa.
* Some of the 2010-11 performances of this Illini team have had the look of an unrealistic video game – an effective field goal percentage of 80.7% against Northwestern in early January, for example. 31/44 (70.5%) from the field, including 9/14 (64.3%) from three-point range. Unreal. Minnesota, for the most part, has shut down the inside shooting of its opponents, while giving up a ton of points from the outside. With four Illini that are more than happy to launch the trey, their long-range success could be the deciding factor.
* Illinois is very tall, but not overly physical and generally lacking toughness and grit. They are not remarkable on the boards for their height (34.3 OR% for Ill, while they limit opponents to 32.1% — Minn is at 38.7% and 32.7%, respectively).
* Their opponents have shot just 30.1% from behind the arc and 45.3% from inside.
* They do not turn the ball over a lot, but at the same time do not force many turnovers.
* Illinois has relatively good free throw shooters, but they do not get to the line often. Other than the aggressiveness of McCamey and Paul at times from the guard positions, no one on their team draws much contact.
Game Outlook
Minnesota needs to get back to rebounding the ball. Their offensive rebounding has been down as of late and they have looked pathetic at times over the past two weeks when it comes to keeping the opponents off the glass for second (and third, and fourth) chances. The Gophers need to come out with fire and aggressiveness and keep it up for 40 minutes. Mbakwe can’t start this game like he did against Ohio State. When you are lacking three-point shooters and offensive creators, it’s OK to win in the trenches. This is the Big Ten, no one is expecting it to look pretty. It is time for this team to fight.
A problem all year, Minnesota’s 19 turnovers (28.0% TO rate, the second highest this season) against Ohio State were inexcusable. I understand we’re without our point guard and some freshman are getting more time than would be ideal, but many of these turnovers are unforced and a lot of them are coming from our big upperclassman in the paint. If Minnesota doesn’t want to cherish their possessions and keeps doing impressions of Mendenhall in the Super Bowl, then they can forget winning basketball games.
Having said all that, my pick is Minnesota by 2. Neither team is in a good spot right now, but if the Gophers take care of the ball and own an advantage on the boards, they’ve got a good shot at pulling out an important home victory. I almost feel for Bruce Weber ““ he has a wife and two daughters at home, and then has to come to work and coach a bunch of girls.
The Players
#32 Demetri McCamey
6’3″, 200 lbs, senior. 32.8 mpg, 14.7 ppg, 6.7 apg, 3.3 rpg, 2.30 A/T.
Overall, McCamey has shot 45.0% from the field this year. From deep, he’s knocking down 48.5% of his shots (49/101), but from inside the arc he converts just 42.3% (58/137). This is a guy that will be trying to earn a spot on an NBA roster later this calendar year, but he’s not helping himself as of late. After a strong start to the season, his performances have often been miserable and it doesn’t seem to be getting any better.
Meechi can be a game changer passing the ball or by scoring himself and must be respected. He would love to get out of this current funk by torching the Gophers, but he has had little success against the Maroon and Gold. In fact, despite six chances, Minnesota remains the only Big Ten team against whom McCamey has not scored more than ten points in a game. Last year in Champaign was especially bad for the veteran guard, as he missed eleven three-pointers while converting just one.
McCamey’s Shooting Percentages ““ 2FG and 3FG
Non-conference”¦.50.0% 2FG, 49.1% 3FG
Conference”¦”¦… 29.4% 2FG, 47.6% 3FG
#1 D.J. Richardson
6’3″, 195 lbs, sophomore. 29.7 mpg, 9.5 ppg, 2.1 apg, 1.9 rpg.
His real first name is Dietrich, but I’m fairly certain he’s not German. The coaches voted him the Big Ten Freshman of the Year in 2009-10 after he posted 10.5 points and 2.7 rebounds per game while starting 35 games and averaging more than 30 minutes.
Athletic guard that was highly touted coming out of high school. After three years in Illinois, he went to Findlay Prep in Nevada for his senior year (played with Avery Bradley). Played AAU with the Illinois Warriors along with Darius Smith and won the Sabes Invitational (17U) in Minnesota in 2008. By the way, another 2009 kid from that Illinois Warrior team is having a solid season at Seward CC (KS) and attracting some high major interest ““ combo guard that could be a decent point guard option for someone next year ““ Jeremy Jones.
Richardson has also been awful as of late, averaging 6.7 points and 1.5 turnovers in conference play.
Dietrich’s Shooting Percentages ““ 2FG and 3FG
Non-conference”¦.48.1% 2FG, 43.5% 3FG
Conference”¦”¦… 39.1% 2FG, 37.1% 3FG
#3 Brandon Paul
6’4″, 200 lbs, sophomore. 21.0 mpg, 8.9 ppg, 2.7 rpg.
Another big time recruit out of Illinois, he had his moments during his freshman year although his shooting percentage of 33.3% (and 27.9% 3FG) left a lot to be desired. Capable of taking it to the hole at times, he shot just 1/8 (1/6 3FG) against Minnesota last year, but did pull down a career-high 9 rebounds.
He’s not shy when it comes to pulling the trigger and is capable of putting up 20 on any given night. About half of his shots come from distance, where he is shooting 38.0% for the season. On defense, he is most likely Illini defender to swipe the ball from the Gophers.
#24 Mike Davis
6’9″, 225 lbs, senior. 31.3 mpg, 11.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg.
The Illini actually has a player not from their home state! The senior from Virginia has had a solid career. A year ago he averaged an impressive 9.2 rebounds per game (mostly on the defensive boards ““ 23.5 DR%), but this year that figure is down to 6.7 (a still-respectable 18% of defensive rebounds; hasn’t done much on the o-boards). Has no deep range. Physically, Mbakwe and Iverson should be able to out-muscle Davis. The chant that was addressed by students to Jared Sullinger on Sunday would be appropriate to use on Mr. Davis.
#54 Mike Tisdale
7’1″, 250 lbs, senior. 25.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.7 to/g.
He’s tall, but he’s not tough. Another kid from the state of Illinois, but looks like he’s got a bit of backwoods West Virginia in him. Definitely could see this guy skinning a squirrel for dinner outside of his trailer/meth lab. Shoots around 50% from the field and about once a game he’ll fire one off from three-point range. Very good free throw shooter. His size helps him to be a good rebounder (both offensive and defensive) and shot blocker. Tisdale is often cited for touching men and it’s very likely that he will foul out of Thursday’s game.
#30 Bill Cole
6’9″, 215 lbs, senior. 20.1 mpg, 5.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg.
Another tall wimp, Cole can shoot the ball well but offers little else other than mediocre defense. He won’t hurt you by turning the ball over, but the question is “œhow much will he help you?” On the year, he is shooting 40.6% from deep, where about two-thirds of his shots are taken. In conference, that figure jumps up to 46.7%. However, after going 7/9 (3FG) in the first two Big Ten games this season, he has been shooting just 33.3%.
#22 Jereme Richmond
6’7″, 205 lbs, freshman. 21.8 mpg, 8.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg.
Waukegan, IL has brought Minneapolis some great people, including Rhymesayers’ J-Bird and Kevin Beacham. Thursday we’ll be introduced to another Wauk-Town representative in McDonald’s All-American Jereme Richmond (#24 RSCI). After committing to Illinois years ago, prior to playing his first high school basketball game, Richmond was joined this past fall in Champaign by fellow freshmen and Mac Irvin Fire teammates Crandall Head and Meyers Leonard. Highly skilled, can rebound and block shots as well as score. Hasn’t shot much from deep at this level yet and probably has been used down low more than he should be, but the stage is set for him to be a leader on this team next year (if he comes back”¦ the one and done talk should be long gone, but his taking time off “œto be with family” and get his head straight several weeks ago was somewhat bizarre). Some similarities to Rodney Williams ““ you can see the tremendous potential that both players have, but they haven’t quite figured things out as much as they need to in order to more fully realize the potential. Shooting better than 50% from the field.
#12 Meyers Leonard
7’0″, 250 lbs, freshman. 8.9 mpg, 2.5 ppg, 1.4 rpg.
Another piece of the impressive (on paper) 2010 recruiting class, Leonard came in as #29 in the final RSCI. He’s a talented big man that has been able to slowly work his way into the college game with Tisdale ahead of him. Next year, he’ll need to step up significantly. The weight and strength he’s added since arriving at Illinois should help in that regard. For now, he’s just a big guy that gives the older guys “œa blow.” The most noticeable parts of his game are fouling and turning it over.
#4 Crandall Head
6’4″, 185 lbs, freshman. 4.8 mpg, 1.3 ppg.
Luther Head’s little brother, Head is another highly regarded frosh. He did miss his senior year of high school after ACL surgery and has not contributed much of anything this year. Certainly the injury was a set back ““ at this point, he’s not ready to contribute anything of great value to this team. Illinois will hope for significant improvement over the next year or two from Head.
McCamey a Cousy Finalist
On Monday, Demetri McCamey was named one of the 10 finalists for the 2011 Bob Cousy Award. The annual award is given to the top point guard in college basketball as determined by a bunch of quacks. Where is Jordan Taylor on this list?
There are two possible reasons for Taylor’s exclusion. One, this may be another case of people being jealous of graduates of the best high school in Minnesota (and probably the finest in the galaxy), or, two, the selection committee may be so put off by Becky basketball that they ignore uw-madison players.
If this is about BSM, that is just wrong. If this is about disdain for Becky, then I am OK with it. Regardless, Jimmer Fredette probably has the award locked up.