Gopher Basketball
After Thursday’s loss to Illinois, a Tubby Smith team has now lost four in a row for the first time in 15 years. However, in only one of those games (@Indiana) were we the better team coming into the game. From here on out, the schedule is favorable for Minnesota and Sunday they take on a team who has lost 24 consecutive games against ranked opponents (yes, the Gophers are still ranked for one more day). Despite recent flashes of quality basketball from Iowa, they are not a good team and this is one Minnesota needs.
While some have written Tubby’s team off, I believe even a 3-3 regular season finish against this soft schedule (to finish 8-10 in conference) could potentially get Minnesota in. Under that scenario, the Gophers’ RPI would likely end up around 50, with two wins against top 25 RPI opponents. Also, if Al Nolen makes a return, the losses that have taken place with him on the sidelines will be partly forgiven. Then again, if Minnesota continues to hand the ball over the opposition, have ugly defensive lapses, only occasionally block out and miss layups with regularity, three to four more victories are unlikely and fans can focus on whether we’ll have a home NIT game instead of preparing for the selection show.
The Team
In mid-January, Iowa traveled to Minneapolis, where they were handed a 69-59 defeat by the Gophers. Trailing by 11 at the half (30-19), the Hawkeyes went on a 13-2 run and tied things up at 32. Midway through the second half and the score again tied, this time at 42, Minnesota went on a 10 point run and ended the hopes of an upset for the visitors. Only four Hawkeyes scored in the game (Cartwright, Gatens, Basabe and May) and Minnesota used 37 trips to the free throw line (27/37, 73.0%) to seal the victory. Mbakwe (16 points, 12 rebounds), Ralph Sampson (11 points, 7 blocks) and the now-injured Al Nolen (13 points, 8 rebounds) led the effort for Minnesota.
Iowa is not good. Their atrocious non-conference schedule is the only reason that some of their year to date statistics look solid, including defensive efficiency. Wednesday’s overtime loss at home to a very good Wisconsin team was an anomaly. Some saw a moral victory, I saw another loss. The Badgers were brutal in the first half, shooting 6/33 (18.2%) from the field and 2/16 (12.5%) from three-point range, yet Iowa could only grow the lead to five points at the break.
The Hawkeyes are a short team – both physically and with regard to their bench. They are poor defensively and have done nothing from deep as of late (just six treys made over the last three games). The Tri-Towers should get some time together in this one. If Minnesota cuts down on its turnovers, they win. My pick: Gophers by 6.
Gopher Rotation
With 15:47 remaining the first half against Illinois, the Gophers elected to put Armelin and Ahanmisi on the floor along with Dawson. If we don’t care to win Sunday’s game, this plan should again be followed. My strong preference continues to be the starting lineup of Hoffarber, Hollins, Williams, Mbakwe and Sampson, but some of the substitution decisions leave me miffed. I’ll leave venting on this subject for another day, but for now, I leave you with the following fact pattern to consider:
Thursday night against Illinois, Maverick Ahanmisi played 15 of the first 31 minutes of the game before riding pine during the final nine.
– When he entered the game, Minnesota was never trailing
– When he left the game, Minnesota was always trailing by at least four points
– 15 minutes with Mav: Illinois 30, Minnesota 13
– 16 minutes without: Minnesota 32, Illinois 21
The Players
#5 Matt Gatens
6’5″, 215 lbs, junior. 33.2 mpg, 12.8 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 90.8% FT.
Gatens missed the team’s first two games after having surgery in his non-shooting hand and shot just 30.6% overall and 17.1% from deep during his first seven games. In the last 15 contests, the junior is shooting 43.3% overall and 42.0% on his 3FG attempts. Expect him to come out firing against Minnesota. In Minneapolis, he shot just 5/21 (3/10 3FG), finishing with 13 points and no rebounds.
#24 Bryce Cartwright
6’1″, 180 lbs, junior. 30.5 mpg, 11.0 ppg, 5.4 apg, 2.4 rpg.
Cartwright proves that JUCO point guards can come into the Big Ten and make an impact. Active guard that can penetrate and get off shots. His shooting percentage of 39.8% leaves a lot to be desired and he’s not much of an outside threat (13/50 3FG, 26.0%), but usually shows no fear offensively and has been an excellent distributor of the ball. Prone to turnovers.
#50 Jarryd Cole
6’7″, 250 lbs, senior. 23.3 mpg, 6.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg.
Physically solid, but should struggle against the height of Minnesota. In January, lasted 19 minutes before fouling the Gophers five times, finishing with zero points and just three rebounds.
#25 Eric May
6’5″, 225 lbs, sophomore. 26.5 mpg, 9.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 45.1% 3FG (23/51).
There is nothing overly impressive about May’s game, although he did have a good game against Minnesota, scoring 16 points on 6/10 shooting (3/4 3FG, tied for his season best).
#1 Melsahn Basabe
6’7″, 225 lbs, freshman. 24.5 mpg, 10.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.5 bpg.
Iowa was fortunate to have this Siena-commit follow coach Fran McCaffery to Iowa City. Athletic youngster with a bright future, he is active on the glass, can block shots and impress with moves to the bucket. The true-freshman scored 20 and grabbed 13 rebounds (5 offensive) against Minnesota last month. Field goal percentage for the year is 56.1%.
#15 Zach McCabe
6’7″, 225 lbs, freshman. 20.6 mpg, 6.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg.
The forward comes off the bench and shoots 35.9%. Will try from deep as often as taking two-point attempts, but has yet to convert more than 1 trey in a Big Ten game. Minutes and contribution are down significantly in Big Ten play.
In addition to McCabe, #4 Devyn Marble and #20 Andrew Brommer will see some floor time off the bench, but Iowa will need its starting five to provide the meaningful minutes in this one.
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