Gopher Basketball
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-9, 6-8) had a weekend away from competition, but will start things up again Tuesday, February 22, against the visiting Michigan State Spartans (15-11, 7-7). Game time is set for 8pm CT and Gus Johnson will call the game on the Big Ten Network with help from Jim Jackson in a contest that both teams desperately desire. A Gopher win would mark their first regular season victory over Michigan State in more than five years. It would also push the Spartans dangerously close to ending their 13 year streak of being invited to dance.
It seems like an eternity ago, but Minnesota was ranked #13 when they visited the then-#19 Spartans at the Breslin Center back on New Year’s Eve Day. The Gophers had a six point advantage halfway through the game, but the home team took the second half 49-34 to secure a 71-62 win. Trevor Mbakwe led the way for Minnesota with 17 points and 9 rebounds. Blake Hoffarber was the only other Gopher in double figures with 12 on 4/10 shooting (3/8 3FG). Michigan State had five players score in double figures, led by Durrell Summers who had 19 points on 6/16 shooting (4/11 3FG). The Gophers got to the line just 13 times, their second lowest free throw attempt figure this season (last week’s loss to PSU was the lowest, 10 attempts). No surprise to those that follow the Maroon and Gold, but Minnesota also lost the turnover battle, giving the ball away 14 times compared to Sparty’s eight. Also not a rarity, the Gophers had an 8-minute stretch in which scoring seemed impossible, allowing the Spartans to go on a 21-3 run and take control of the game.
The Team
This is another team where you’re not sure what kind of a performance you’re going to get on any given night. Coming off a big win against Illinois, Michigan State needs others beside Kalin Lucas to step up. After recovering from an Achilles tear that occurred in the second round of the 2010 NCAA Tournament, Lucas is now looking closer to 100%. The two time All Big-Ten guard is scoring well and is constantly on the floor (21.9 points in 37.6 mpg over the past seven games), but when Michigan State has just two or fewer double-figure scorers, they are 2-5 this season. Add a third or more and the record goes to 13-6 (7-0 with four or more).
It’s true that Michigan State has played a very tough schedule, but they are not without their bad losses (including a 20-point drubbing at Iowa). On the road in conference play, they are just 1-6 and at home, 6-1. Half of the wins in East Lansing have come in overtime, including games against Northwestern and Indiana.
Things to Know About Michigan State
* They are shooting better in recent games, but in conference play Michigan State’s field goal percentage of 43.1% is better only than Northwestern. Minnesota has held their opposition to 40.2%, good for second best.
* Neither team is making a lot of three-pointers or shooting them with much accuracy in conference play. Sparty checks in at #9 with a 31.7 3FG%, slightly better than Minnesota’s cellar-standard 31.0 3FG%. Despite the fact that opponents shoot a ton of three-pointers against them, Minnesota has held their Big Ten opponents to just 33.0 3FG% this year, good for second best. Michigan State’s foes have enjoyed a 40.8% conversion rate on treys, but unfortunately Minnesota has only one significant threat.
* Michigan State is the second best team in terms of rebounding margin at +4.1. Minnesota leads the conference with a +5.4 margin in Big Ten games. When it comes to offensive rebounds, the two squads are also #1 and #2 (12.5/game for MN; 11.8 for MSU).
* The Spartans block 4.9 shots per conference game, second only to Minnesota (5.4/game).
* Only two teams have a worse average turnover margin than Michigan State’s -1.4 in the Big Ten, but Minnesota’s putrid and last place -3.8 makes MSU’s performance look almost decent.
* Michigan State doesn’t get to the line a ton (below D1 average FTA/FGA rate)
There are some similarities when it comes to these teams. Off the court, there are the injuries and players leaving during the season. More recently, not only was there the departure of Korie Lucious from the team last month, Michigan State continues to have other issues, including injury and illness. Roe with a bad knee, Green taking an IV this weekend and rumored to have soiled his pants (may or may not be related to his current illness), Nix being morbidly obese, Summers with a bad case of sucking “¦ it goes on and on. Roe’s knee continues to bother him and Green still has a bit of a sour stomach as of Monday evening, but they should be able to play a lot of minutes on Tuesday.
Both teams shoot poorly from distance, have issues with turnovers, rebound and block shots very well and have some guys inside that can get nasty and physical. This sets up to be a Big Ten brawl. Michigan State knows they are close. Minnesota knows they are close. It’s time to fight. A good ol’ ugly Big Ten fight. My pick: In this one, I like the Gophers by 2″¦ and by “œI like” I mean “œI pray”. A loss here puts Minnesota in a dire situation, although I think they can still make the dance with an 8-10 conference record.
The Players
#1 Kalin Lucas
6’1″, 190 lbs, senior. 32.4 mpg, 16.4 ppg, 3.5 apg, 2.2 rpg. 44.0 FG%; 38.7 3FG% (36/93).
He’s the only Spartan to start every game this year and will be in for almost every second on Tuesday. Playing very well as of late, getting it done with penetration and can knock down the mid-range jumper after creating space. It never has been the case, and even during his latest tear (21.9 ppg over the last 7 games) his three-point shooting hasn’t been elite (12/34 for 35.3% and a career 37.5% 3FG shooter), but he’s had success shooting the deep ball against the Gophers over the years (18/34 or 52.9%). A huge part of the offense (26.4 %Poss and 28.8 %Shots), Lucas may be able to find his way into the zone and draw some fouls in the paint.
#23 Draymond Green
6’7″, 230 lbs, junior. 29.8 mpg, 12.8 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.7 spg, 1.2 bpg.
After a couple years coming off the bench (although he did average over 25 mpg last year and was named the Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year), Green is a leader. Tough, but a versatile guy that score, pass and rebound as he did in picking up a triple double against Penn State less than two weeks ago. It all starts with Lucas and Green for the Spartans and these veterans will be up for this game. Green is an excellent rebounder, especially on the defensive boards. Defensively, he picks up steals and blocks shots. This year he is also shooting from behind the arc and doing so with some success (28/71 or 39.4%). This former Tubby Smith recruit is a load to handle and statistically is a rare high major in that he leads his squad in both rebounds and assists. Has trouble with fouling occasionally.
#10 Delvon Roe
6’8″, 235 lbs, junior. 23.8 mpg, 6.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.2 bpg.
Good size, offensively is often a non-factor. If he can reach 10+ points against Minnesota, his team will be in great shape because it will mean there is a third scorer for MSU and would likely mean fouls are being called on the Gophers, as many of Roe’s points are earned at the charity stripe. Defensively Roe is excellent, although he has been dealing with a knee injury and may be limited in his minutes. Izzo will likely want him out there for 20-25 minutes. Good rebounder, great shot blocker.
#15 Durrell Summers
6’5″, 205 lbs, senior. 29.5 mpg, 12.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg.
You can’t argue with the abilities, but Summers can find himself unfocused and in big time funks. Currently, he is struggling and Minnesota can’t let this be the night he gets back on track. In the month of February, Summers is averaging 5.8 points while shooting 9/35 (25.7%) from the field and started the last game on the bench (has started 24 of 26, riding pine at the beginning of both Illinois games). Likes to shoot the ball, but is only at 43.2% on his 2-point shots (63/146) and 37.1% from 3 (52/140). While the shots aren’t falling like MSU fans would hope, Summers is not a guy that turns the ball over much.
#11 Keith Appling
6’1″, 180 lbs, freshman. 22.2 mpg, 5.8 ppg, 2.4 rpg.
Good looking freshman, he’ll help this program a lot more in the future with his scoring. #34 RSCI in the 2010 class. About half of his shots come from deep where he is shooting 38.5% (25/65). Hasn’t done a ton on the scoreboard, but defensively Appling’s efforts have been great at times, including a nice job while assigned to Blake Hoffarber earlier this season. Turns it over a lot and isn’t quite where he needs to be, but he’s going to be a pretty good one.
#25 Derrick Nix
6’9″, 270 lbs, sophomore. 8.8 mpg, 2.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg.
He’s a huge young man even after having dropped 70 pounds off his former playing weight of 340 pounds. His skills are fairly good for being his size, but generally he won’t see a ton of minutes. He may get a chance for anywhere from 5 to 15 minutes in this one, and simply try to lay a body on the big front line of Minnesota. Has a knack for finding the ball and possesses surprisingly good hands, both of which help in pulling down offensive rebounds. You’ll probably see him get an offensive board, and then get fouled on the putback at some point during the game. Don’t be too alarmed, there are not many worse free throw shooters than Nix (career 32/88 for 36.2%).
#5 Adreian Payne
6’10″, 230 lbs, freshman. 8.7 mpg, 2.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg.
#27 RSCI in the 2010 class; will not see much time.
#41 Garrick Sherman
6’10″, 240 lbs, sophomore. 12.9 mpg, 3.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg.
Spartan fans will tell you he does all the little things, which is code for “˜the guy stinks’. He’s started 13 games this year and has gotten some run over the past few weeks. Garrick enjoys handing the ball to his opponents. There’s a chance he starts against the Gophers, which we should encourage and applaud.
#20 Mike Kebler
6’4″, 205 lbs, senior. 7.3 mpg, 1.2 ppg.
Former walk-on who offers nothing on offense. He made his first career start against Illinois and played some defense over 21 minutes, while scoring 2 points. The fact that he is playing meaningful minutes in the Big Ten shows that MSU is not without its issues.
Freshman Russell Byrd is on the bench this season after having a second foot surgery before the year even started. Byrd is yet another respected recruit from the 2010 class, and at 6’7″ has good size for an outside shooter. Next year’s MSU class is highlighted by the ridiculous long, athletic super-rebounding wing B.J. Dawson who is going to do some great things in college.
Mercy was granted on my awful submission and the Big Ten Network selected me as one of 10 semi-finalists for the Gus Johnson Moment contest. The top three vote-getters will fly to the Big Ten Tourney to do a call in person for Gus, who will then pick a grand prize winner. You can vote once a day (no registration necessary) ““ it’s quick and easy, so if you have a moment, please click on the link and vote for my submission which is the Hoffarber call in the top left of the videos. Just select the “˜Vote’ radio button, then “˜Save Vote’ and your vote will be recorded. Each computer can record one vote per day through this Sunday, February 27, 2011. I should know on Monday of next week if I’ll be heading down to the Big Ten Tournament.
Discuss the Michigan St. game on Tubby’s Barn Basketball Forum
Keep up-to-date with Jesse “œJ.B.” Bauer on Twitter