Gopher Basketball
On Saturday, February 26, the Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-10, 6-9) host the Michigan Wolverines (17-12, 7-9) in a game with postseason implications for both teams. Tipoff is slated for 3:36pm CT and will be broadcast on the Big Ten Network (Eric Collins and Jim Jackson).
The Team
These two squads met in Ann Arbor back on January 22 and, with the support of the Barnyard, the then-#15/#19 Gophers won by a score of 69-64. Although Al Nolen played only 11 minutes (0 points, 2 turnovers) before leaving with an injury that resulted in foot surgery, the Gophers shot an impressive 63.4% from the field and used a 38-13 rebounding advantage to secure the victory. Minnesota gave Michigan chances by turning the ball over 17 times, but the Wolverines deep attack was just not quite good enough (12/35, or 34.3% 3FG…. Michigan had only 18 two-point attempts).
Michigan almost earned their way onto the bubble, but fell short on Wednesday when freshman Josh Gasser of Wisconsin threw in an ugly buzzer beater to steal a win at Crisler. Now, Michigan needs to win their last two and probably get some more help after that in order to avoid an NIT berth. While the Wolverines do currently have a better conference record than the Gophers, they are lacking a win against the one of the top three Big Ten teams (tOSU, Purdue and Wisconsin) and had no overly impressive non-conference victories. While I continue to believe Minnesota could make the NCAA tournament after going 8-10 in conference, the worst game to lose might be Saturday’s.
Michigan’s offense goes through guards Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway, but there are a number of kids with range that could sting the Gophers. The Wolverines will be letting go from behind the arc all afternoon and Minnesota cannot allow good looks. In game one, Austin Hollins was ill and played only a few minutes – his length will be useful in the zone against three-point shots.
Granted, the Wolverines have a tendency to jack up quick triples, but they do not turn the ball over. Whether you look at their turnovers per game (about 5th in the nation) or their turnover percentage (about 20th), it’s impressive that a young group of guys is doing as well as they are taking care of the ball. Minnesota, on the other hand, has had problems with turnovers all year – with and without Nolen. The Gophers will commit more turnovers than Michigan, you can only hope it won’t be too many more.
Not a surprise with their personnel, Michigan has struggled all year with getting offensive rebounds as well as getting to the line. That should be no different at the Barn. To expect that the Gophers will again outrebound Michigan by 25 and pull down more than 50% of their offensive rebounding opportunities as they did in Ann Arbor is going too far, but the home team should enjoy an advantage here. Will it be enough? It should be. Michigan doesn’t defend two-point shots well. They do not steal or block the ball. If Minnesota can limit turnovers and get the ball inside, I like the matchup. Of course, the three-point shot is a great equalizer and you can be certain Michigan will try to use it early and often.
Before the game in January I commented, “œUnless Michigan is shooting lights out and can keep Minnesota off the offensive boards and free throw line, I see the Gophers earning their first conference road win of the year. My pick: Gophers by 4.” My thoughts are similar for Saturday. Yes, Hardaway has elevated his game and Jordan Morgan, who owns the best field goal percentage in the conference (63.2%), has picked up his scoring production significantly over the past few weeks, but at the end of the day I believe Minnesota is the better team.
Now, I will not offer 2-for-1 odds like I am doing for the silly folks who don’t want to believe me when I tell them that the chances of Maurice Walker receiving a hardship waiver are less than remote, and in fact I wouldn’t bet a penny on this game, but I’ll at least type something: My pick, Minnesota by 4.
The Players
#4 Darius Morris
6’4″, 190 lbs, sophomore. 35.1 mpg, 15.1 ppg, 6.8 apg, 4.1 rpg.
Big point guard that has taken a sizable step forward in his second year at Michigan. He’s very good dishing the rock and capable of creating his own shot. Possesses one of the highest assist rates in the nation; the offensive goes through him. 2-point shooting percentage is 54.5%, but Morris is just 26.8% from 3FG (15/56). His eight point effort this week against Wisconsin ended a 13-game double-digit scoring streak which dated back to the first time Michigan played Becky.
#0 Zack Novak
6’4″, 210 lbs, junior. 34.7 mpg, 8.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.6 apg.
This lefthander is frequently playing out of position, but does an admirable job of doing so. He’s essentially nonexistent on the offensive glass, but an impressive rebounder on defense. Not a great shooter (38.3% overall and 36.6% from 3FG), but he will fire away from deep at the Barn if he has (or thinks he has) space and try to shoot his way out of a current slump. Over the last three games, he’s 0-11 from distance and in the last two games (@Iowa, WISC), he’s 0/14 from the field.
#10 Tim Hardaway Jr.
6’5″, 185 lbs, freshman. 29.7 mpg, 13.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.0 spg.
Big guard that is playing with confidence. Went for 20 against the Gophers in the first matchup and will look to do the same or better on Saturday. He can get it done offensively in different ways and had been doing an excellent job at taking care of the ball, although in recent outings he’s had his fair share of ugly turnovers. For the season, he’s shooting just 41.1% overall, but in 16 Big Ten games he’s been converting at a 45.3% clip, including 43.3% (39/90) from three-point range. Dangerous.
#52 Jordan Morgan
6’8″, 240 lbs, freshman. 24.6 mpg, 9.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg.
He’s the only physically solid big guy that Michigan can put on the court. With his tendency to pick up dumb fouls and inability to block shots, he’ll struggle with Minnesota’s men. In 23 minutes on January 22, #52 was blanked on the boards, although he did score eight points on 4/5 shooting. Minnesota should take it to him early and often. Morgan is a guy that might have a lot of heart, but the Gophers are going to be too much for him inside.
#1 Stu Douglass
6’3″, 190 lbs, junior. 29.3 mpg, 7.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg.
Team captain; takes the majority of his shots from behind the arc, where he is shooting 37.7% (46/122) this season. He is usually just a guy Michigan puts on the court so that they have five bodies, but occasionally can produce offensively. Douglass has reached double digit scoring in four Big Ten games this year, shooting 23/37 (62.2%) and averaging 14.8 points in those contests, but in the other twelve conference games, he’s just 21/74 (28.4%) for 4.6 ppg.
#23 Evan Smotrycz
6’9″, 225 lbs, freshman. 18.3 mpg, 5.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg.
Smotrycz should be a nice complementary player on this team for the next few years, but as of now he’s just a 6’9″ shooter who doesn’t shoot so well and often wears full-leg tights on the court. In his first game against Minnesota, he went 2/9 from the field (1/7 3FG) and was largely a non-factor for the 16 minutes over which he accumulated four fouls (although strangely more than 25% of his steals in 28 career college games came against Minnesota). He’s just 4/16 from three-point range over the last seven games, but expect him to try and get it going against the Gophers zone. The true freshman is shooting 35.8% 3FG for the season (34/95) and is not a good rebounder, despite his height.
10 Chantel Jennings
Daily Sports Editor at the Michigan Daily, Michigan’s student newspaper, Chantel is wondrous combination of beauty and talent. I haven’t read much from her, but I have seen a brief video and it appears that she can break down a ball game relatively well. I was mesmerized. I hope Chantel will contact me, especially if she’s going to be at Williams Arena Saturday or the Big Ten Tournament in a couple of weeks. I’d love to talk hoops and stuff in person.
SNAPSHOTS FROM A CPA
Random numbers and miscellaneous data
Blake Hoffarber: The Only Option at Point Guard
After three games in a row with four turnovers, Blake has just three, two and one, respectively, in his last three contests. He also didn’t steal the ball and had only five assists in the four-turnover games, but in the past three games, has four steals and 15 assists.
Minnesota’s offensive efficiency in Big Ten play:
Home….103.3 (111.5 excl ILL & MSU)
Away…..104.0
Wins……113.3
Losses….97.2
Al……….108.4
No Al…….99.5
Minnesota’s defensive efficiency in Big Ten play:
Home…..102.8
Away……107.2
Wins……..99.9
Losses….108.6
Al………..107.9
No Al……102.7
OTHER NOTES
Mercy was granted on my awful submission and the Big Ten Network selected me as one of 10 semi-finalists for the Gus Johnson Moment contest. The top three vote-getters will fly to the Big Ten Tourney to do a call in person for Gus, who will then pick a grand prize winner. You can vote once a day (no registration necessary) ““ it’s quick and easy, so if you have a moment, please click on the link and vote for my submission which is the Hoffarber call in the top left of the videos. Just select the “˜Vote’ radio button, then “˜Save Vote’ and your vote will be recorded. Each computer can record one vote per day through this Sunday, February 27, 2011. I should know on Monday if I’ll be heading down to the Big Ten Tournament.