The Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers Can’t Crack A Weak Bubble

As of Thursday — the morning after the Gophers were officially laid to rest despite an absolutely horrible NCAA at-large bubble — by my calculation there are 27 teams (and I use that term loosely) battling for 8 available at-large bids. This time I won’t designate which bubble teams teams I would select to complete the 68-team field. I’m simply listing the bubble teams the Selection Committee is likely to consider, even if only marginally, in the event they win at least a game or two (or 3) in their conference tournament.

I’ll post my usual “Field of 68 Projection” on Monday. That will be my final projection until the grand finale late Saturday night (March 12) or early Sunday morning (March 13) from Indianapolis.

The Automatics (Conference Leader/Highest Remaining Seed in Conference Tourney) — 31
1. Kansas (1)
2. Ohio State (2)
3. BYU (3)
4. Duke (5)
5. Pitt (7)
6. Florida (11)
7. Arizona (18)
8. Utah State (19)
9. Xavier (23)
10. George Mason (25)
11. UAB (28)
12. Missouri State (40)
13. St. Mary’s (48)
14. Princeton (49)
15. Belmont (55)
16. Oakland (56)
17. College of Charleston (74)
18. Bucknell (84)
19. Vermont (85)
20. Long Island (87)
21. Fairfield (89)
22. Kent State (91)
23. Long Beach State (95)
24. Milwaukee (97)
25. Coastal Carolina (99)
26. Murray State (104)
27. Florida Atlantic (105)
28. Northern Colorado (114)
29. Texas Southern (165)
30. McNeese State (166)
31. Bethune-Cookman (189)

Stone-Cold Locks (Their Work is Done) — 24
1. San Diego State (4)
2. Purdue (6)
3. Georgetown (8)
4. North Carolina (9)
5. Notre Dame (10)
6. Kentucky (12)
7. Wisconsin (13)
8. Texas (14)
9. St. John’s (15)
10. Syracuse (16)
11. West Virginia (17)
12. Louisville (20)
13. Kansas State (21)
14. UConn (22)
15. Vanderbilt (24)
16. UNLV (26)
17. Old Dominion (27)
18. Temple (29)
19. Texas A&M (30)
20. Missouri (31)
21. UCLA (34)
22. Cincinnati (35)
23. Georgia (37)
24. Florida State (51)

Kinda’-Sorta’ Locks (Simply Avoid Disaster in Last Game or 2) — 5
1. Villanova (32)
2. Tennessee (33)
3. Illinois (39)
4. Washington (41)
5. Richmond (60)

The Bubblers (27 Teams Jostling for 8 Available Bids)
1. Memphis (36)
2. Boston College (38)
3. Cleveland State (42)
4. Michigan State (43)
5. Harvard (44)
6. Butler (45)
7. Colorado State (46)
8. Southern Miss (47)
9. Wichita State (50)
10. Oklahoma State (53)
11. Marquette (57)
12. Michigan (58)
13. Penn State (59)
14. Drexel (61)
15. Virginia Tech (63)
16. VCU (64)
17. Clemson (65)
18. Gonzaga (68)
19. Miami-Florida (69)
20. Washington State (70)
21. Nebraska (71)
22. New Mexico (75)
23. Baylor (77)
24. USC (79)
25. Colorado (81)
26. Alabama (86)
27. Maryland (88)

All RPI references are courtesy of Jerry Palm at collegerpi.com.

Streams of Consciousness
(1) I’m not buying it from those who want to pin all the Gophers’ late-season struggles simply on the loss of Al Nolen. The fact is, even without Nolen, this Gopher team was still plenty good enough, relative to a terrible NCAA at-large pool, to get to the NCAA Tournament. If the Gophers simply win two of the last four games they’ve given (there’s a harsher word I could use) away (Penn State, MSU, Michigan & now Northwestern) — not to mention the ugly loss at Indiana that started this whole mess — they’d be in solid shape for a NCAA Tournament bid.

Some years teams overachieve, other years they underachieve. If you follow sports and have a favorite team, you know that’s part of the deal. This team has underachieved when it has mattered the most, at the end of the season and at the end of close games. This was 2001-02 all over again. Please tell me it can’t get worse, but I cringe at the thought of a Trevor Mbakwe-less Gopher squad in 2011-12.

(2) Not that everyone cares about the NIT, but it would be premature to assume the Gophers will receive an invitation. Lose to Penn State and then to Northwestern again in Indy and I’m not so sure the NIT folks will be so eager to select a 17-14 team that lost 9 of its last 10 games.

(3) Looking for some potential bid-stealers in upcoming conference tournaments? How about Hofstra or Drexel from the Colonial, New Mexico from the Mountain West, USC from the Pac 10, Mississippi State from the SEC, or San Francisco from the WCC?

(4) With the Gophers now officially out of the NCAA picture (barring a Big Ten Tournament championship. … cough, cough), it’s time to adopt a few teams for Championship Week and beyond. So here’s a Championship Week shout-out to:

1. BYU (love Jimmer’s game & gotta’ respect a school that stood by its principles, a novel concept nowadays);
2-3. Buffalo & Northern Colorado (because both have key players from my small hometown, Zach Filzen and Emmanuel Addo);
4. Maine (my Mainer brother’s favorite team seeks its first-ever NCAA bid as a #3 seed in America East);
5. Michigan State (once again Dad’s school may have to carry me through March. … or at least part of it);
6. South Dakota State (seriously, I thought this was the most impressive nonconference home opponent the Gophers faced); and
7. UAB (for some reason I’ve always had an odd fascination & appreciation for Mike Davis. … a likeable guy).