Buzz Clips 2010-11 Finale — Tubby’s First 4 Years vs. Monson’s First 4 Years

STADIUM VILLAGE, U.S.A. — Folks, I’ve enjoyed contributing what I could to this board for the nearly completed 2010-11 college basketball campaign. Like Nadine said in her Strib blog a few days ago, I, too, always feel a twinge of sadness as the season nears its conclusion. For some reason, since I was about 15 years old, there’s always been the “college basketball season” and then there’s “the rest of my calendar.” I love playing golf (spring to late fall), enjoy following the Twins, and love the pageantry of college football, but none of those things hold a candle to the enjoyment I get out of the college basketball season, even one in which the Gophers fell short of expectations. There’s always next year, which right now is likely more than we can say for the money-grubbers involved with the NFL and NBA (not that we’re exempt from slime-balls in D-I hoops).

Obviously, with the way the Gopher season ended, there’s been a lot of frustration on this board. I understand that all Gopher fans want the same thing — sustained success both during the regular season & NCAA (especially when we see what our neighbors are enjoying in Badgerland) — but what I don’t understand are the fans who exist on the two ends of the spectrum. … the “sky is falling” crowd who think a disappointing season means Tubby can’t be successful anymore (I believe that is false), or the “everything’s hunky dory” crowd who think every recruit the Gophers bring in will be the next coming of Lou Hudson or Bobby Jackson (minus the scandal thing) and will lead us to multiple Big Ten championships, Sweet 16s and Final 4s. The truth lies somewhere in between, and for what it’s worth I still think Tubby can get Gopher hoops to the point where we’re talking about how far we can go in the NCAA Tournament, as opposed to whether we’ll go to the NCAA. We got derailed this year a little bit, no doubt, but I have confidence Tubby will get the train back on track.

To that end, since there’s been a lot of discussion about what Tubby has or hasn’t accomplished in his first four years at Minnesota, it got me to thinking. How do Tubby’s first four years at the U compare to Dan Monson’s? When folks argue that Tubby hasn’t really elevated the program much from when Monson was here, are they just blowing off some steam or is there some truth to their argument? I’ve compiled some statistical data (some courtesy of Jerry Palm at collegerpi.com) comparing Tubby’s first four seasons (2007-2011) to Monson’s (1999-2003), and here’s what I came up with. Each of you can draw your own conclusions, as the purpose of this “Buzz Clips 2010-11 Finale” isn’t to sway you one way or another.

Bear with me as we slog through these statistics. There may be a nugget or two that you find of particular interest. For me, the one statistic that stands out is Tubby’s success vs. quality competition in neutral-site games. That tells me the Gophers have become more competitive these last four seasons. Maybe we don’t have the top-half Big Ten finish or NCAA tourney wins that we’d like to have by now, but I think we’re getting there.

Please note that I do not count games played vs. non-Division I opponents.

Dan Monson (1999-2003) vs. Tubby Smith (2007-11)

Overall Record
Monson: 65-57 (53.3%)
Smith: 79-53 (59.8%)

Williams Arena Record
Monson: 51-17 (75%)
Smith: 52-17 (75.4%)

True Road Record
Monson: 12-31 (27.9%)
Smith: 14-28 (33.3%)

Neutral-Site Record (includes NCAA & NIT postseason)
Monson: 2-9 (18.2%)
Smith: 13-8 (61.9%)

Big Ten Record (Big Ten Tournament games included)
Monson: 27-42 (39.1%)
Smith: 38-44 (46.3%)

Record vs. Big Ten Opponents Finishing .500 or Better (BTT games included; i.e., team that finished 9-9 but lost its opening BTT game would be excluded)
Monson: 9-32 (22%)
Smith: 14-32 (30.4%)

Record vs. Each Big Ten School
Illinois: Monson (0-9), Smith (2-5)
Indiana: Monson (3-3), Smith (5-4)
Iowa: Monson (3-4), Smith (6-0)
Michigan: Monson (4-2), Smith (3-5)
Michigan State: Monson (2-4), Smith (1-9)
Northwestern: Monson (5-2), Smith (7-4)
Ohio State: Monson (1-5), Smith (3-6)
Penn State: Monson (5-2), Smith (6-3)
Purdue: Monson (3-4), Smith (2-5)
Wisconsin: Monson (1-7), Smith (3-3)

Big Ten Record at Williams Arena
Monson: 19-13 (59.4%)
Smith: 21-15 (58.3%)

Big Ten Road Record
Monson: 7-25 (21.9%)
Smith: 11-25 (30.6%)

Big Ten Neutral-Site Record
Monson: 1-4 (20%)
Smith: 6-4 (60%)

NCAA Tournament Appearances/Record
Monson: 0/0-0
Smith: 2/0-2

NIT Appearances/Record
Monson: 3/5-4
Smith: 1/0-1

Record vs. RPI Top 50
Monson: 12-39 (23.5%) — 1 top-50 win occurred in NIT, after Selection Sunday
Smith: 15-35 (30%)

Record vs. RPI Top 100
Monson: 27-52 (34.2%) — 5 top-100 wins occurred in NIT, after Selection Sunday
Smith: 22-44 (33.3%)

Record vs. BCS Schools/Non-Big Ten
Monson: 10-12 (45.5%)
Smith: 5-6 (45.5%)

Record vs. Bottom 25% of Division I (based on number of D-I programs each season)
Monson: 12-0
Smith: 9-0

Record vs. NCAA Qualifiers/All
Monson: 13-40 (24.5%)
Smith: 20-35 (36.4%)

Record vs. NCAA Qualifiers/Home
Monson: 13-14 (48.1%)
Smith: 11-13 (45.8%)

Record vs. NCAA Qualifiers/Road
Monson: 0-22
Smith: 2-17 (10.5%)

Record vs. NCAA Qualifiers/Neutral
Monson: 0-4
Smith: 7-5 (58.3%)

Best 8 Wins Based on RPI
Monson
#5 Georgia (2002-03)
#16 Indiana (2000-01)
#17 Ohio State
#19 Wisconsin (2000-01)
#20 Indiana (1999-00)
#20 Indiana (2001-02)
#27 Georgia (2000-01)
#30 Purdue (2002-03)
Smith
#4 vs. Louisville (2008-09)
#6 vs. North Carolina (2010-11)
#12 vs. Butler (2009-10)
#12 Purdue (2010-11)
#16 vs. Purdue (2009-10)
#21 vs. West Virginia (2010-11)
#21 Wisconsin (2009-10)
#22 vs. Indiana (2007-08)

Average Gophers RPI
Monson: 82.85 (Best of #71 in 2001-02 and 2002-03, worst of #114 in 1999-00)
Smith: 72.5 (Best of #42 in 2008-09, worst of #101 in 2007-08)

Strength of Schedule Average
Monson: 52 (Best of #31 in 1999-00, worst of #66 in 2002-03)
Smith: 54.75 (Best of #34 in 2010-11, worst of #113 in 2007-08)

Average RPI of Nonconference Opponents (regular season only)
Monson: 146.09
Smith: 176.042

Average RPI of Nonconference Home Opponents (regular season only)
Monson: 174.322
Smith: 207.25

Bye for now until the Road to Selection Sunday “2K-12” begins in October. Rest easy. … it’ll be here before we know it.