by: Daniel House (@DanielHouseNFL)
When the Gophers travel to Iowa on Saturday, they will be looking to accomplish something that hasn’t been done since 1999 — win at Kinnick Stadium. Minnesota is 9-0 for the first time since 1904 and its program continues to shatter the record books. The Gophers shot up to No. 8 in the College Football Playoff rankings and could make another statement with a road win over No. 20 Iowa.
In Vegas, the Hawkeyes are a three-point favorite at home against the Gophers. When looking at the analytics, Minnesota should be favored by around three points. Bill Connelly’s S&P-plus system has the Gophers at No. 13 (20.5). Iowa is slotted in at No. 23 (15.4) and ranks No. 68 in the offensive metric. On the other side, Minnesota is No. 7 in offensive rating, while Iowa placed No. 9 in the defensive metric, according to Connelly’s data. The Hawkeyes’ offense has been inefficient this year and sits in the middle of the pack.
Examining Iowa’s Key Metrics
When analyzing the Expected Points Added metric, the Hawkeyes rank No. 78 in overall offensive efficiency, according to College Football Data. Minnesota is currently a top-10 offense in this metric. Overall, the Gophers hold many advantages offensively. In this matchup, the lone category where the Hawkeyes are more efficient is in rush defense. When looking at expected points added, Minnesota’s offense ranks among the best in college football, especially through the air.
(if a value isn’t appearing, hover over the graph) – Note: negative numbers are what you want on defense
In last week’s 24-22 loss to the Badgers, Iowa’s defense was very undisciplined and tackled poorly. Defenders weren’t in the correct run fits and struggled with pre-snap motion. The Hawkeyes’ defense didn’t take adequate angles in the second level. This allowed Wisconsin to accumulate 473 total yards and 24 first downs. When analyzing it even further, Iowa surrendered 300 rushing yards, including 81 in the open field and 62 in the second-level, according to CollegeFootballData. The Badgers used a heavy dose of Power-O, lead, lead zone, inside zone and occasional outside zone/stretch plays to maul the interior of the Hawkeyes’ defensive line. I included a medley of gap rushing concepts and lead zone/inside-zone style clips (second clip) below.
Defensive tackles were unable to take on double teams, which made it very difficult for linebackers to flow downhill. I also believe pre-snap motion is something the Gophers could use to their advantage. The eye discipline of the Hawkeyes’ defense has been leaky in numerous games. Minnesota’s interior physicality and its melting pot of rushing concepts match up really well with the Hawkeyes’ defense. I expect the Gophers will use a heavy dose of inside zone and dash some outside zone into the mix, too. The discipline and tackling issues associated with this Iowa team could lead to explosive rushing opportunities.
On the perimeter, I like the matchup even more. Iowa’s play in the secondary has been rather inconsistent. In the Purdue game, head coach Jeff Brohm went right at defensive back Matt Hankins (No. 8). During the Wisconsin matchup, the safeties struggled to cover the deep half and the Badgers poked holes in the zone. For example, cornerback Michael Ojemudia was badly beaten on the outside and the safety was late over the top. When Iowa had to dedicate more defenders to stopping the run, the free safety was cheating into the box. If this happens against the Gophers, get ready for some deep vertical shots. Again, this is where the Gophers’ offensive balance comes into play. Teams can stack the box to prevent lighter boxes, but Minnesota will adjust by attacking the sideline with its playmakers.
One of the other areas I noticed in the Purdue game was Iowa’s willingness to play off coverage (defensive back cushion). Boilermakers’ wide receiver David Bell annihilated the Hawkeyes when they attempted this. With Minnesota’s quick RPO game, it will be surprising if Iowa doesn’t come up and jam the Gophers’ wide receivers. In the second clip below, Purdue ran a double slant concept, which features two slants on the same side of the formation. Opposite of that, the wide receiver stretched vertically and the running back slipped out to the flat. This type of concept is usually executed against two-deep safeties to stress the middle of the field. If Iowa wants to play a ton of zone (like usual), Minnesota will poke holes in it with quick passing concepts.
During the deep throw to Bell, it appears the Hawkeyes are aligned with two-deep safeties and they shifted to cover the slot man. The free safety is playing the middle and had to help in the slot. This meant the strong safety had to handle the deep half. The quarterback looks at the strong safety and he’s cheating to the middle. Bell runs a go-route up the sideline and beats Matt Hankins up the sideline for an easy completion. David Bell finished this game with 13 catches for 197 yards and a touchdown. The Boilermakers attacked underneath and nicely blended in deep shots downfield to take advantage of Iowa dedicating defenders to help against intermediate passes. Minnesota has more offensive firepower and should present some of the most challenging matchups the Hawkeyes have witnessed this year.
Bringing the Pressure
On the defensive side of the ball, Minnesota needs to get after quarterback Nate Stanley. Iowa ranks 25th in first-down efficiency (0.15), according to CollegeFootballData’s Expected Points Added metric. This number dramatically decreases in late-down situations. The Hawkeyes have the ninth-worst second-down Expected Points Added metric in the country (-0.048), according to CollegeFootballData. Iowa only slightly improves in this area on third-down and jumps to No. 86 nationally (0.42). All year, Nate Stanley has struggled when facing blitz packages, especially on third-and-long. For example, Wisconsin dialed up a few different looks and Stanley was unable to move around the pocket.
In several instances this year, he has made poor decisions against pressure, such as firing off his back foot. I expect Minnesota to be very aggressive with its blitz packages, especially when they get Iowa into long down-and-distance situations. This is the sweet spot where pivotal takeaways could occur for the Gophers’ defense. Iowa’s blossoming deep target has been redshirt freshman Tyrone Tracy Jr., who has grabbed touchdowns in back-to-back games.
One of the underrated keys for Minnesota’s defense will be discipline on the edge. Iowa loves to use the boot and play-action game to complement the stretch zone rushing concepts. When Stanley can buy time and extend, he’s at his best. Stanley is not a rushing threat, but crashing hard on the boots could lead to errant throws and tipped passes. When Iowa deploys its outside zone and stretch-style rushing concepts, discipline for Minnesota’s linebackers is key. It is so easy to get run out of gaps against this scheme.
It means tackling in the second-level/open field will be very important to limit explosive plays. The Gophers’ defense has been so disciplined and it’s the result of strong preparation by the coaching staff and players. Running backs Toren Young and Mekhi Sargent are physical runners, so wrapping up will be critical. Iowa’s ground game hasn’t been nearly as efficient this year and it’s placed Nate Stanley in less manageable passing downs.
Minnesota made several high-leverage plays in the red zone against Penn State. This week, they will be matching up against a team that has struggled inside the 20-yard-line. In 2019, Iowa hasn’t converted red zone opportunities into touchdowns. The Hawkeyes have scored 17 touchdowns in 29 red zone trips, according to CFBStats. This means they have settled for field goals on 11 occasions, which is tied for the sixth-highest mark in the country. Not only that, but the Hawkeyes have appeared in the red zone at the tenth-lowest rate in the country. They have trouble sustaining drives and aren’t maximizing trips to the red zone. It illustrates why they have such a low offensive efficiency rating in expected points added.
Final Thoughts
Iowa’s defense presents challenges, especially when you get into long downs. They have quick pass rushers and will send some stunts and pressure looks. Minnesota’s offense (specifically the wide receivers) will pose the biggest test for the Hawkeyes thus far. The Gophers’ defense has to limit explosive plays by maintaining gap discipline. With a team that loves to horizontally displace defenders and capitalize with play-action, Minnesota’s linebackers will need to step up. If the Gophers can place the Hawkeyes in enough long-down situations, I’m confident they can create at least one key takeaway to set the tone. When Iowa is at its best, they are efficient on first-down, so Minnesota has to limit the Hawkeyes’ success rate in that category.
Overall, I really like this matchup for the Gophers. I think Minnesota’s physicality and balance will allow them to move the ball against Iowa. This is the type of game where the Gophers can jump out to an early lead, control clock and put all of the pressure on Iowa’s offense to play from behind. Minnesota has been brilliant at getting off to quick starts and hasn’t trailed at any point since the Oct. 5 game against Illinois. There is no doubt the Hawkeyes’ secondary can be exploited. If the Gophers have early success through the air, it will open up lighter boxes for Minnesota’s ground attack to take off.
In Case You Missed It:
Here is my Penn State game breakdown: https://t.co/28zUPXsUnJ?amp=1
Also, my feature with former Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel on P.J. Fleck: https://www.skornorth.com/gophers-2/…flecks-career/
An analysis of the College Football Playoff Rankings: https://t.co/xrmlYT120N?amp=1
Podcast- Penn State Review and Looking Ahead to Iowa: https://www.skornorth.com/skor-north-gophers-shows/2019/11/gophers-upset-penn-state-move-to-9-0/
(video credit: Fox, ESPN and the NCAA – intended for fair use)