Gopher Football
The predictions for the upcoming college football season are out and once again the Gophers appear to be underestimated. In the seven seasons Glen Mason has been in charge at Minnesota, the Gophers have met or exceeded their predicted finish no less than six times. In five of the past six seasons the Gophers have finished two or more places higher than the consensus prediction.
Last year, the consensus was for the Gophers to finish 7th in the Big Ten. They ended up tying for 4th. Only College Football News correctly picked the 4th place tie, although with Purdue instead of Iowa and Michigan State. CFN predicted nine wins for the Gophers and said, “œThere’s no reason to shoot for anything less than a ten win season.” Street Smith was the only one to be slightly overly optimistic by picking the Gophers to finish 4th by themselves.
Same story in 2002. Minnesota was a 9th place consensus pick. Football Action correctly predicted the team’s 7th place finish. That also turned out to be the most optimistic prediction of the bunch.
Another consistent trend regarding the predictions on Mason’s Gophers is that the expectations keep getting higher. Last year’s consensus 7th place prediction was actually as high as it has ever been under Mason. The other most optimistic prediction was also a 7th place finish in 1999 when in fact the Gophers were 4th with a 5-3 record and compiled an 8-4 record overall.
This year the lowest predicted finish is 7th. Still, most predict them to finish in the middle of the pack. This seems to indicate that Minnesota is seen as a solid middle tier team but not a serious contender.
The Sporting News, which predicts a 6th place finish for the Gophers, picked Minnesota as the surprise team in the conference. Another nugget for the Gopher optimists: Phil Steele’s is ranked No. 1 among the magazines in prediction accuracy over the last five years, that is, excluding the CPA Rankings Website. It’s this magazine that has the Gophers finishing at No. 4 in the conference.
Then there is CNN/Sports Illustrated which is the only one that really goes out on a limb by predicting a 1st place finish. Yes, that’s a Rose Bowl prediction for the Gophers! It’s doubtful any magazine has predicated that bowl for the Gophers in the last 40+ years.
Blue Ribbon Yearbook also goes out on a limb a bit, predicting a 3rd place finish, which whould put the Gophers in the Outback Bowl in Tampa Bay. However, if the team’s bowl bid history is any guide it could result in a trip to San Antonio, which is normally reserved for the 4th place finisher.
Not listed in the linked tables below is the Big Ten media poll done by the Chicago Sun-Times which pegged the Gophers at No. 5. However, that middle of the pack ranking was a result of a wide variance of opinion on Minnesota, which ranged from a predicted 2nd place finish to 10th place. Apparently, the Gophers are still the mystery team with much of the Big Ten media.
So there you have it. The highest expectations ever for Mason’s Gophers are this year with the consensus picking them finishing 5th in the Big Ten standings and these predictions nearly always miss on the pessimistic side by about two or three spots in the standings. Judging from past experience, I guess we can expect a 3rd, or even 2nd place finish, and a strong possibility of a January bowl game in Florida for the Gophers this time around.
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