Gopher Football
Fortunately for Minnesota, the worst two defenses in the Big Ten (Illinois & Indiana) are on the Gopher’s schedule the next two weeks. This week’s opponent, Illinois, is giving up 29 points per game, (9th in conference), 204 rushing yards per game (11th in conference), and 430 total yards per game (10th in conference). Despite the struggles last week, Minnesota still ranks 1st in the conference in rushing offense, 2nd in total offense, and 2nd in scoring. Those numbers are nice, but the only ones that matter right now are the 103 rushing yards, 17 points, and 313 total yards that the offense put up last week.
Minnesota Backfield vs. Illinois Linebackers
Marion Barber and Laurence Maroney will have a golden opportunity to get their struggling running games back on track on Saturday. That’s because Illinois is last in the Big Ten in rushing defense, and last by a huge margin. In Big Ten play the Illini are allowing 238 yards per game, which is over 50 yards more than tenth ranked Indiana. The Illinois linebackers are led by Mike Gawelek. The senior is in his first year as a starter, but he leads the Illini LB’s in tackles with over 9 per game.
For Minnesota, this needs to be the game when the running game gets back on track. Opponents have been stacking the box, and as of yet Minnesota has yet to find an answer. If you take away the big 80 yard run that Laurence Maroney had against Michigan, Minnesota has totaled just 211 yards in the last two contests. 105.5 yards per game is not going to work for any team that relies on the run as much as Minnesota does. It’s probably good timing for Minnesota that they are facing Illinois right now since Minnesota should have their way with the Illini defense. Look for the Gophers to mix things up a little, perhaps giving Bryan Cupito more freedom to spread the passing game out a little bit. Even though they’ve been having problems, the Gophers should control this aspect of the game.
Advantage: Minnesota
Minnesota Receivers vs. Illinois Secondary
This game also looks like an opportunity for the Minnesota passing game to get out of the one-dimensional rut that it’s evolved into recently. Illinois does rank 4th in the Big Ten in passing yards allowed per game, they are a conference worst in receptions allowed and touchdown passes allowed. The best Illini cover man is senior Kelvin Hayden. This can be either good or bad, depending on your perspective. Good, because Hayed is leading Illinois in interceptions with 3, but bad because this is his first year as a cornerback, and the fact that he leads the team in interceptions doesn’t say much about everyone else.
The Gopher receivers have put up some decent numbers this year, but the manner is which they’ve gotten this isn’t necessarily ideal. More and more as the year has gone on, the Minnesota passing game has evolved into a somewhat desperate chucking of the ball deep and hope for the best. This isn’t all that bad of a strategy when you have Ernie Wheelwright back there to catch those throws, but I’m sure the Gopher offensive coaches would be the first to tell you that the short and medium route passing game needs to return. After a breakout sophomore year, Jared Ellerson has just 23 catches for only 339 yards through seven games. Both of these totals are behind the pace he set last year with 44 receptions for over 900 yards. Led by Ellerson, Minnesota does have a talent advantage over the Illinois in this matchup. But until the Gophers can actually come out and show that the receivers still can dominate the game on all parts of the field, I see this matchup being closer than it should.
Advantage: Even
Minnesota Offensive Line vs. Illinois Defensive Line
Many Gopher fans have been disappointed in the play of the Minnesota defensive line, but we should consider ourselves lucky when compared to the Illinois defensive line. Somehow, the starting Illini defensive front four has accumulated only ½ of a sack this year. No, that is not a misprint. You might think that they’d at least have been able to get a sack accidentally, but so far that hasn’t happened. The only two full sacks the Illinois defensive line has gotten have been by backups. Since there are no sacks to speak of, the next stat to look is tackle for loss. Junior Ryan Matha leads that department with 4 TFL for 13 yards. So I guess by default, Matha is the most dangerous player in the Illini front four.
On the other side of the ball, the Minnesota offensive line certainly has not had the type of the year they were hoping for. There have been several minor injuries to Brandon Harston, Joe Ainslie, and Rian Melander that have kept them out of a game or two. Complicating matters is the defensive schemes being thrown at Minnesota. The oppositions seem like they don’t care if they get beat by a deep pass; they’re still going to play 8 and 9 in the box. If you give the Gopher offensive line room they are very good, but we will see if this is the week the offense fixes itself and Minnesota can loosen up the opposition up front
Advantage: Minnesota
Overall Advantage
For this preview, I don’t think it’s really worth talking about the Illinois defense too much. Clearly, the Illini are badly outmatched by Minnesota in talent. The biggest problem for the Minnesota offense this week won’t be the guys in Orange, it will be themselves.
Last week against Michigan State, the Gophers went up against a team that knew what they wanted to do defensively, and a team that executed that plan to perfection. Michigan State never really took their defenders out of the box, and thus kept the pressure on the Gopher offensive line all game long. This, in turn, made it extremely difficult for the Gophers to run the ball. But what it should NOT have done was to make it difficult to pass the ball as well. That is the problem on the coaches’ hands this week.
Why was Michigan State so daring against us? Why would they take such chances? I don’t know the answer to that, but here is my best guess: Minnesota isn’t going to beat you all day with the long pass. Toledo aside, teams usually don’t hit on more than about 25% of their passes over 30 yards. But, if you give the Gophers any breathing room up front, the O-Line is good enough where they’ll beat you all day with the run. This defensive philosophy by the Spartans was risky, but it proved to be genius. Even though Minnesota burned the Michigan State defense for two long touchdown passes, the Spartans kept right on stacking the box, assuming Minnesota couldn’t keep hitting on the long passes all day. It turns out they were right. Minnesota couldn’t hit on passes (throwing for only about 33% on the day) let alone long passes, and the running game was stuffed all game from the 8-9 guys in the box.
After the Michigan game, I wouldn’t really blame the coaches if they didn’t come away too concerned. It’s Michigan after all, and they do have a great defensive team. But if the urgency wasn’t there after the Michigan game, it has to be after the Michigan State game. The Gophers saw their high-powered offense shut down by an average defensive football team. Illinois is likely the worst defense Minnesota has seen since Toledo, so there is no time like the present to start experimenting and learn how to fix these problems.
One might ask, “How do you do this? Isn’t it likely that Illinois will try to match the Michigan State defensive scheme?”
Yes, I do think that we will go against a similar defensive game plan this week. To me, the answer on how to fix the offense is obvious, but it won’t be easy to execute: Minnesota MUST figure out how to develop a CONSISTENT passing attack. After starting off the year hitting for high completion percentages, Bryan Cupito has seen his accuracy fall off dramatically in recent weeks. In the past two games, Bryan has only completed 19 of his 55 pass attempts. No wonder teams aren’t afraid to stack the box against us! The time is now for the coaches to figure out what is wrong with the passing game. We need to start completing some shorter passes, and that needs to happen quickly. If it does, you will eventually see defenses adjusting by sagging their linebackers and safeties back into coverage. If it doesn’t happen, you will continue to see teams stack the box and continue to watch the running game struggle. My hunch is that the coaches got the hint after last week that changes are needed, and I think we’ll see some good results this week.
Overall Advantage: Minnesota
Next article: Illinois Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
Talk about the match-up on the Gopher Football Forum message board.