Preview: Gophers vs. Illinois

I’ll be blunt. The Gophers have no business winning this game. Actually, they really have no business even keeping it close. Illinois is the #1 team in the land. They’re 20-0 overall, 6-0 in Big Ten play, have a legitimate chance of going undefeated in the regular season, and are oozing talent at every position. The Gophers could play their best game of the season and still get blown out.

Ironically, I’m actually looking forward to this game for those very reasons. For the first time this season, I have no expectations nor hopes, and I won’t shed a tear if the Gophers lose…even if they lose by 30. Seeing the Illini dismantle then-#1 Wake Forest eight weeks ago (they led by as many as 32 points) made it appear like they can win each game by as much as they feel on that particular day.

The foundation of Illinois’ dominance resides in the backcourt. Juniors Dee Brown and Deron Williams and senior Luther Head give the Illini the best trio of perimeter players in the country. Brown and Williams were the headliners coming in to the season. While their scoring averages haven’t improved since last year (both are at 13 ppg), their play has. Brown has bumped his 3-point shooting up to 44% (which basically makes him unguardable) and is also averaging 5 assists per game. Williams is only shooting 32% from behind the arc, but his 7 assists per game lead the league.

It’s been Head, however, who has truly taken the Illini from a good team to a great team. The 6’3″ athlete’s shooting and playmaking have finally caught up to his physical talents, and he’s now at a completely different level mentally. Head is leading the team in scoring (17 ppg) and steals (2 spg); he’s shooting 45% from 3-point range, 52% from the field, and 82% from the free throw line; he’s dishing out better than four assists per game; he’s good for four rebounds a night; and he’s playing great defense.

Illinois’ experience extends into the frontcourt, where senior Roger Powell, Jr., and junior James Augustine are also having excellent seasons. The 6’6″ Powell is averaging 13 points and 5 rebounds and is shooting 56% from the field (and knocking down some 3s). Augustine (10 ppg, 8 rpg, 64% 3pt) is a physical presence inside at 6’10”, and he also has the athleticism to be a factor in transition.

The Illini’s depth doesn’t look impressive on paper (no reserve averages more than 4 ppg), but they do have three guys on the bench who are not to be overlooked. 7’2″ senior Nick Smith has historically given Minnesota fits with his height and soft shooting touch, although he has been struggling this season (just 41% from the field). 6’10” senior Jack Ingram doesn’t attract much attention, but his two 3-pointers against Wisconsin Tuesday night were key in Illinois’ come-from-behind win. And 6’3″ sophomore Richard McBride has plenty of athleticism and a nice shooting touch. He simply hasn’t been able to crack the Brown-Head-Williams barrier for more than 16 minutes per game.

Here are my Gopher Keys of the Game:

1. No Peeking. The Gopher players (and coaches, for that matter) should not look at the scoreboard the entire game. If they’re getting killed, we don’t want them to lose their confidence. If they’re keeping it close, we don’t want them feeling too comfortable. And if they’re somehow actually in the lead, we don’t want them getting anxious or nervous. This game for Minnesota is simply about keeping their momentum from the Indiana win and improving their play before they head to Michigan. The score against Illinois does not matter; the Gophers just need to play their game and enjoy the opportunity of facing the #1 team in the country.

2. No Turnovers, and Don’s Follow Your Shot. It’s when Illinois gets things going in transition that they really take over a game. Brown is the best in the business on the break, and Williams, Head, and others aren’t too far behind. Transition opportunities are most likely to come from turnovers and leak outs. Minnesota absolutely has to take good care of the ball to minimize the former. The latter can me limited by the Gopher guards not getting caught in crashing the offensive glass. They need to make sure one or two guys are backpedaling the moment a shot goes up, or else it’ll be defensive rebound-outlet pass-layup. The Gopher big men can crash the boards all they want, but the guards need to be a little more conservative.

3. Win Inside and/or Out. To keep this game close, Minnesota is going to have to have an offensive edge either inside or from 3-point range. Illinois’ frontcourt is solid, but Jeff Hagen and friends have a chance to outplay them if they’re aggressive and smart. As for the backcourts, no offense to the Gophers, but Illinois’ is better hands-down. Still, it’s conceivable that the Gophers could outshoot them. Minnesota’s 3-pt defense during Big Ten play is much better (20% vs. 46%), and its 3-pt shooting for the season is about even (39% vs. 40%). Outplay the Illini either inside or out, and the Gophers shouldn’t get blown out. Outplay them in both areas, and it might be a more nerve-wracking Saturday afternoon than expected.

Again, Minnesota has no business winning this game. I would say that about any team in the country heading into Assembly Hall this season. Illinois should not lose a game at home (and maybe not even on the road) this season. They already had their wake-up call last week, when Iowa somehow managed to take them into overtime. Upset predictions for the Gophers center on Illinois looking past a game sandwiched between their two biggest of the conference schedule (at Wisconsin and at Michigan State). That might help, but I just don’t see it being enough. My prediction: Illinois 78 Minnesota 61.

Talk about the game on our Gopher Basketball message board.