Preview: Gophers vs. Purdue

The Gophers’ crucial victory over Iowa Wednesday night guaranteed than a non-losing conference record and put them within sniffing distance of a 20+ win season and the NCAA Tournament…but Wednesday is in the past. What’s in the future is Saturday’s equally important game at Purdue.

Many people will knock Purdue’s 3-10 conference record and 6-18 overall record. They’ll see the Boilermakers as a Big Ten bottom-feeder and a team Minnesota should walk over. I couldn’t disagree more, and I definitely feel this will be a more difficult game than either of Minnesota’s past two home games (against Iowa and Ohio State).

For starters, Purdue is possibly the most talented 6-18 team Minnesota has ever played. The Boilers have certainly underachieved and disappointed this season, but they do have talent. 6’7″ junior Carl Landry (#14) is the conference’s top scorer at 19 ppg. Junior David Teague (#2) and senior Brandon McKnight (#10) comprise a very formidable (although streaky this season) backcourt that averages 26 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. 6’10” junior Matt Kiefer (#42) is a skilled big man who averages 10 points and 5 rebounds per game. Question marks begin to emerge after that, but there’s some talent on the bench as well.

The even bigger reason why this game won’t be easy is what figures to be a large amount of emotion surrounding the final home game in head coach Gene Keady‘s 25-year career at Purdue. And, it also happens to be Senior Day. A 6-18 might normally have a tendency to pack it in, but McKnight and fellow senior Andrew Ford (#4) aren’t going to do that. And no player on the Boiler team is going to want to send their coach out with a loss. They’re going to be fired up, and the crowd is going to be fired up.

Purdue has also been playing a little bit better as of late. They’ve won 3 of their past 4 games at home (the exception being an 11-point loss to Michigan State), and they’ve also played Ohio State and Northwestern fairly tough on the road. They have not given up by any means, and I unfortunately don’t expect them to do so on Saturday either.

Here are my Gopher Keys of the Game:

1. Weather the Storm. This one is critical. As I mentioned, the Boilermakers are going to be fired up. They’re could open with a big run, and they’re going to have the crowd into the game. The Gophers need to survive any flurry they might face. They need to stay calm and keep plugging away. They need to wait until Purdue gets tight (like Minnesota was much of Wednesday with similar emotions) and the crowd starts thinking “Here we go again…”. Basically, Minnesota needs to play a full 40 minutes.

2. Take Care. Perhaps the best way to make sure Key #1 happens is to take care of the ball. The Gophers can’t turn the ball over 25 times like they did at Michigan. That feeds runs. If the Gophers can keep their turnovers below 15, I’ll be felling good. They still need to be aggressive and push the ball in transition whenever possible, but they need to avoid the foolish turnovers that have been a lingering problem this year. No lazy passes, no picking up your dribble against the trap, and especially no forced passes to a go who’s 25 feet from the basket and not in a position to do anything anyway.

3. Go Deep. This one refers to something Minnesota hasn’t been doing much of lately – using its bench. When these teams met back in January, all eight Gopher regulars played at least 18 minutes (other than Jeff Hagen, due to injury). Lately, Minnesota has almost been going with a Steel Six. I bring this up, because Purdue has a similar problem. After their four primary scorers, their bench has not done much all season. In the first meeting, those four each logged 30+ minutes. Those guys are tied, and Landry has a nagging knee injury. If Minnesota can get some extended play from Spencer Tollackson and Rico Tucker on Saturday, it will help them wear Purdue down.

This is a biggie. The Northwestern loss removed the margin for error, so the Gophers need to win this game if they’re going to have a chance to make Selection Sunday relatively stress-free. But they can’t worry about that. They need to let Purdue be tight while they play loose. They beat Purdue without Jeff Hagen and with Vincent Grier having an off night. They know they can beat them again. Now they simply need to do it. My prediction: Minnesota 65 Purdue 62.

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