Preview: Gophers vs. Penn State

A few weeks ago, I said that beating Northwestern was important because it would give the Gophers a little margin for error rather than forcing them to run the table the last two weeks of the season. Well, they of course didn’t defeat the Wildcats, but they’re now 75% of the way to finishing the regular season 4-0.

While holding on against Northwestern might have actually given Minnesota a shot at a third-place, 11-5 season and removed all bubble talk, we can’t play that game. This Gopher team might not have gutted out tough wins against Ohio State, Iowa, and Purdue, were it not for that final kick in the pants. So Gopher fans are going to have to be content with a fourth-place, 10-6 season even though it will likely mean a few Selection Sunday jitters.

All that now stands between the Gophers and the best Big Ten record of Coach Monson‘s tenure is the bottom-feeder. The Nittany Lions are riding a nine-game losing streak and are just 1-13 overall in conference play. Their closest game in the last month was a 10-point home loss to Ohio State, and they’re coming off a 22-point home loss on Saturday against an Iowa Hawkeye team whose NCAA hopes were crushed by Minnesota last week. Things aren’t so happy in Happy Valley.

To add to the optimism, Minnesota dominated Penn State 83-62 in the conference opener back in early January. The Gophers pretty much did it from everywhere. They shot the ball well (46%), they shut down the Lions (35%), they won the rebounding battle (42-33), and they took good care of the ball (22 assists/12 turnovers). Aaron Robinson scored 19 points from the perimeter, and Jeff Hagen scored 18 in the paint. Several other Gophers contributed as well. It was a dominating performance.

The road is of course a different story in the Big Ten, but 7,000 fans in the 15,000-seat Bryce Jordan Center is far from the most intimidating environment Minnesota has played in. Senior Night might bring a few extra fans and emotions, but with their seniors averaging just 2 points per game, that doesn’t figure to be much of a factor either. This game should be Minnesota’s to lose.

Here are my Gopher Keys of the Game:

1. Play It Again. All the Gophers have to do is play like they did in the first meeting. They should try to dominate the paint (Jeff Hagen was 8-8 from the field and also had 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 blocks; Aaron Johnson couldn’t stop him). They should shoot the ball confidently from the perimeter when they get open looks (Aaron Robinson buried 6 three-pointers). They should play smothering defense (Penn State couldn’t get anything going). They need to take care of the ball (12 turnovers again would guarantee a victory). And most importantly, they need to play with more energy than their opponent. With a trip to the NCAA Tournament on the line, that shouldn’t be too tough.

2. Contain Their Weapons. Since the first meeting, 6’5″ freshman Geary Claxton has taken over as the Lions’ leading scorer (13 ppg) and their most dangerous player. He’s not a jump shooter, but he’s very good at getting to the basket and the free throw line (he had 11 attempts in the first meeting). The Gophers need to try to make him settle for jumpers and earn his points. They also need to keep Johnson and 6’5″ Travis Parker off the offensive glass – a place where they get a lot of their points. If your defense makes them work, Penn State hasn’t shown the offensive firepower to hang with anybody in the conference.

3. Rest Easy. I don’t mean that the players can rest easy, although they do need to stay relaxed. What I really mean (yes, I’m selfish) is that they need to let the fans rest easy. Minnesota needs to take care of business, not leave any doubt about the outcome of this game, and hopefully not leave any doubts for the Selection Committee either. The Gophers need to have a workmanlike attitude for 40 minutes and win convincingly. They’ll then be rewarded with 9 days off before they get a chance to make one final statement.

Anything can happen on the road in the Big Ten, so it’s hard not to be a little uneasy about this game, but hopefully there’s no need to be. The Gophers have done what they’ve had to with their backs up against the wall. The pressure appeared to make them a little tight at times in each game, but they snapped out of it. Hopefully that pressure has eased up a bit now and they can just go out, have fun, and play their game like they did back in December and early January. Who would’ve thought Minnesota would be such a heavy favorite to finish the season 10-6? My prediction: Minnesota 68 Penn State 53.

Talk about the game on our Gopher Basketball message board.