Gopher Football
Minnesota Backfield vs. Purdue Linebackers:
The Gopher backfield had its final dress rehearsal in preparation for the Big Ten season last Saturday against Florida Atlantic, and I think everyone involved has to be pretty comfortable with where things currently are. The running backs have been everything hyped, and quarterback Bryan Cupito, though definitely not perfect, has been able to make some good throws and keep the defenses honest. Like the rest of the team, Cupito will get his biggest challenge of the season this Saturday against Purdue. Bryan has yet to see a pass rush like he will see against Purdue, so the deep passes that he has been able to complete thus far will find themselves not being quite so open and available. I don’t expect Minnesota to drastically alter their passing schemes, so that means Cupito just needs to keep making the same throws he has so far; he’ll just have to do it against a tougher defense. His performance will be key in keeping the Boiler defense from cheating up against the run.
Laurence Maroney leads a very good and very deep group of running backs for Minnesota. Maroney leads the nation in rushing yards (481), is second in yards per game (160), and is tied for second in rushing TD’s (6). So far in three games Maroney has been everything Gopher fans could’ve hoped. Right behind Maroney is sophomore Gary Russell. Even though he hasn’t gotten nearly as many carries as Maroney, Russell is averaging over 10 yards per carry, and is tied with Maroney for 2nd in the nation with 6 rushing TD’s. There really isn’t much of a drop-off when Russell gives Maroney breaks. Lastly, Amir Pinnix hasn’t put up the kinds of numbers as the other two, but he has nothing to be ashamed of with a 194 rushing yards at 4.8 yard/carry. Overall, Maroney is the clear-cut leader of this group, but Russell and Pinnix have proven that there is more to the Gopher ground game than #22.
With the exception of Kyle Williams, most Gopher fans (and fans of other Big Ten schools for that matter) probably are not very familiar with any of the Purdue linebackers. Even though all three starters return, none of them made first or second team All-Big Ten last year. However, Purdue had the 17th ranked rushing defense in the nation last season, and is #1 in the nation so far this year. What gives then? It’s my opinion this is a very good group of linebackers; they just happen to be in the came conference as players with the names of Hawk, Greenway, Hodge, etc. It’s highly doubtful any Purdue linebackers will be All-Big Ten this year, but don’t let that cloud your vision when evaluating how good this group has the potential to be.
As I mentioned above, Purdue returns ALL of their defensive starters from last season, which means that their three linebackers are already very experienced players. The two best starters at this position appear to be Stanford Keglar and George Hall. Hall is a senior this season, and had a good season last year with 92 tackles. Keglar had only 61 tackles, but was only a freshman and has a lot of time to improve on that. The final piece is Bobby Iwuchukwu; another senior who was the starter last season until he missed the last few games of the season with a knee injury. The other guy to watch out for is #34, Kyle Willimas. A lot of Gopher fan have probably already heard of Williams when he was in the middle of an unusual recruiting saga involving Iowa over the last two years. So far this season, Williams has 7 tackles in a reserve role.
Summary:
This will be a fun match up. Purdue has the distinction of being #1 in the nation against the rush (18 ypg), but if I may, those numbers aren’t quite as good as they appear. The two starting running backs they’ve gone against have gotten 82 yards on 25 carries. It’s been the number of sacks (9 sacks for 54 yards) that Purdue has gotten that has driven the average rushing yards allowed down into the teens. Regardless, the Boilermaker linebackers still are good. With that said, I don’t think they match up with the Gopher backfield. Maroney has been as good as advertised thus far, but perhaps even more importantly Gary Russell and Amir Pinnix have lived up to their expectations so far as well. Add those three guys to an improving Bryan Cupito (who takes more abuse than he deserves), and I really like what Minnesota brings to the table on Saturday.
Advantage: Minnesota
Minnesota Offensive Line vs. Purdue Defensive Line:
Perhaps even more impressive than the Gopher running backs so far has been the play of the offensive line. Starting left tackle Joe Ainslie has missed the last 2+ games with a wrist injury, but you really wouldn’t have ever noticed it when you see how many good runs the Gophers have had to the left side. That means that his fill in, Steve Shidell, has performed very well in his absence. Ainslie is expected to be back this weekend though, so that should help the line’s performance out even more. Elsewhere on the line, senior center Greg Eslinger has already gotten his share of notoriety from the ESPN broadcasts. Several of the 12 Gopher rushing touchdowns so far have been sprung from downfield blocks by the outstanding Gopher center. The line has also given Cupito good pass protection so far, having allowed just one sack in the first three games.
The Purdue defensive line is probably the best in the conference. The line has a beautiful blend of experience, speed, size and ability. More yet, there is really isn’t a weak link anywhere. At the ends are two juniors; Ray Edwards and Anthony Spencer. Both are very good, and both are already proven big time players. Last year Edwards had 8 sacks, Spencer 7.5. In two games this year, Edwards has 1 sack, Spencer 2. We can’t forget about the defensive tackles either. Both are seniors, and both are talented. In his first year as a starter last year, Brandon Villarreal recorded 17.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. Next to him, Brent Grover knocked down 8 passes and added 6 tackles for loss. Each player on the line is already a proven contributor.
Summary:
After the Florida Atlantic game last week, Owl coach Howard Schnellenberger’s said that Minnesota’s offensive line was the best one that he had seen since Nebraska’s in 1983. While that may or may not be true, it certainly was a great compliment from a legendary college coach. The reason for Schnellenberger’s words is so far this season the Gopher line is humming and it seems like nothing could slow them down. But if there ever will be a challenge to this line, it will be this week since Purdue will likely have the best defensive line in the conference. When looking at Purdue’s line, the biggest strength I see are the ends. They proved last year that they can get to the quarterback, and I expect they’ll do the same this year. However, I’m not sure that will do as much good against the Gophers as it will with other teams. Minnesota doesn’t pass that much. Rather, its offensive strength is running the football. But even when they do pass, they RARELY put QB Bryan Cupito in a position where he is going to have to deal with a lot of pressure. There usually is at least one Tight End, and possibly a RB or FB in to help the blocking (even on 3rd and longs). So far this year Purdue’s line has feasted against two teams who have attempted a combined 85 passes , and barring a complete collapse at the beginning of the game, there’s no way Minnesota will even come close to throwing that many times. I see this as more of a run blocking vs. run defense type of match up. From that end I see the advantage going to Minnesota. But, if Minnesota does get into a situation where they have to pass a lot, I’ll see the end switching over to Purdue. With all of that said, I’ll call this match up a draw.
Advantage: Even
Minnesota Receivers vs. Purdue Secondary:
The forgotten unit of the Gopher offense is the wide receivers. With the Gopher running game stealing all the headlines, people forget that the Gophers have a pretty good group of wide receivers to work with. The surprise leader of the unit through three games has been junior Logan Payne. Through two seasons, Payne only had seen a handful of balls thrown his way, but a good off-season between him and Bryan Cupito has resulted in more balls thrown his way (with mostly good results). Payne leads the Gophers with 10 receptions, and is second in yards with 195. So far, Payne has bucked the trend of the Gopher receivers dropping passes and has caught nearly everything thrown in his vicinity. Jared Ellerson has enjoyed a little bit of a resurgence so far this year. After a good 2003, Ellerson struggled a bit in 2004, but to date he leads the Gophers in receiving yards with 207 and 2 TD’s. We can’t, of course, forget about Ernie Wheelwright. Even though he hasn’t made a huge impact so far, his athletic 6’5″ frame will always present match up problems with opposing defensive backs.
Through the first two games, Purdue has surprisingly had poor pass defense. Akron was able to throw for 360 yards against them, and Arizona threw for about 290 yards. Maybe the more surprising stat though, is the despite great pressure from the front four, and 85 pass attempts by the opposition, Purdue has managed just 1 interception. The good news for Purdue is that their secondary is not completely horrible. Three of the four starters are very good in run support. Leading the way, and the guy who the Gophers most definitely will have an eye on, is junior Bernard Pollard. The 6’2″ 225 pound strong safety is essentially a fourth linebacker to try and block. Last season Pollard led the team in tackles with 96, and he’s off to a strong start again this year. With a lot of Minnesota’s running offense focusing on downfield blocking, Pollard is a guy that Coaches Mason and Browning probably have spent a lot of time scheming against. The good run support doesn’t end with Pollard either. Free safety Kyle Smith is another LB-like guy in the defensive backfield. Last year the former QB had 76 tackles of his own. At 6’4″ 215 pounds he will be another tough guy to block.
Summary:
This might be the most interesting match up of the game to watch. One common theme among great running teams is that the wide receivers almost always play a big role in the blocking. The Minnesota receivers definitely take pride in this. In almost any long TD run by Minnesota, you will see one, perhaps two WR’s blocking 30 yards downfield. Simply put though, Purdue’s safeties will defiintely challenge Minnesota’s blocking WR’s. Whoever comes out on top could help determine whether Minnesota rushes for 150 or whether they go for 250 yards. I think you could make a case for both units having an edge, so I’ll call this part a draw. On the coverage side, I definitely like Minnesota. The Gophers have already gotten some nice things done through the air this year (relatively speaking), but the most talented guy, Ernie Wheelwright, hasn’t been a very big part of it. If they can keep up the production with Payne and Jared Ellerson and then figure out how to add Wheelwright into the mix, things could get really exciting. With the three good Gopher receiving threats, I think they’re talented enough to continue to exploit Purdue’s pass defense (especially if the running game is established first). Like I said before though, I expect the biggest difference in the match up to be determined in the blocking vs. run support. Minnesota has to keep Purdue’s safeties out of Maroney’s way. It should be fun.
Advantage: Minnesota
Overall Summary:
As the old cliché goes, “œSomething’s got to give”. Minnesota comes in with the best rushing offense in the nation, and Purdue comes in with the best rushing defense. There is no doubt that Minnesota will try to establish the running game, like they always do, so the early series of the game will be very key to see who can get the early momentum. In very general terms, I like Minnesota’s chance to score better than I like Purdue’s chance to stop them. Why? First, Minnesota is at home, and usually does very well running the ball at home. Second, Purdue has not seen Minnesota the past two years. Last time they met, Greg Eslinger was 250 pounds and Mark Setterstrom was 270 pounds. Both were true freshmen. Now, Eslinger is 285 and Setterstrom is 305. Both are seniors, and both are All Americans. In the end I think that Minnesota’s experience and talent in run blocking will be the difference, and I’m not sure there is anything Purdue can do to completely prepare for Minnesota’s excellent blocking schemes.
I do see two very good chances for Purdue to win this match up though. First will be to cause turnovers. The Gopher defense isn’t good enough to hold Purdue’s offense back all day long, so the more they have the ball, the better for them. Second would be if Purdue can hold Minnesota scoreless for the first few series. If they can score a couple times and the defense can hold Minnesota scoreless, it will force Minnesota into passing game that the Gophers definitely would not be comfortable with. Minnesota has had a couple nice games throwing the football, but that success has been when the running game has been established first. Barring those two scenarios though, with the way Minnesota’s offense has played so far this year I think their chances just a little better.
Overall Advantage: Minnesota
Special Teams Notes:
Minnesota’s special teams has either been really good, or really bad (depending on what part you’re talking about). The kickoff coverage has been good, the punting has been improved from last year, they have a blocked punt for a TD and several other blocks that have been close, and they’re 5-5 on FG’s. But the 5 missed XP’s in two weeks really hurt, and is something that could really bite you in a close game. Purdue ranks 9th in the Big Ten in punt & kickoff returns, 8th in punting and 11th in kickoff coverage. The one bright spot for Purdue is that they have one of the best kickers in the conference, Ben Jones. Even though Jones has a huge edge over Gopher kicker Jason Giannini, Minnesota has done better in almost every other aspect of special teams.
Advantage: Even
“œIT’S “˜GO’ TIME!” This is what Gopher fans have been waiting 8 months for. If Minnesota can win this game, not only will it give them momentum in the conference race, there is a good chance they can create a buzz in the Minnesota sports community and draw some more fans to the games. The going won’t be easy though. This Purdue team is very talented, and maybe more importantly, they’re experienced. Even though the number of players on the Gopher roster that have played against Purdue is only a handful, there has to be some memories, demons, ghosts, or whatever that are lurking in the back of some minds of coaches and players. I like Minnesota’s offense to keep rolling, but I’m just not sold on the Gophers ability to defend a defense like this yet. It will be close, but the Purdue jinx will continue.
Prediction: Purdue 34 ““ Minnesota 33
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