Gopher Football
Minnesota Backfield vs. Penn State Linebackers:
For the second straight year, Minnesota will have the tough task of facing a very good set of Penn State linebackers. Leading the way for the Nittany Lions is junior Paul Posluszny, who is the reigning Big Ten defensive player of the week after his 22 tackle performance against Northwestern. Posluszny established himself as one of the premier linebackers in the Big Ten last year as a sophomore after a 105 tackle season. The other big name LB to watch for Penn State is sophomore Dan Connor. Last season as a true freshman, Conner had an impressive 85 tackles while getting three starts. Conner ran into trouble during the off season when was charged with making harassing phone calls and was subsequently suspended, but he is back now and is working his way back into the groove. Tim Shaw is the final starter. The former running back is in his second year as a starter, and is second for Penn State in tackles with 38. If not for Iowa & Ohio State, Penn State would be more widely recognized as having one of the best groups of linebackers in the nation.
Gopher quarterback Bryan Cupito (for the most part) passed his first big test last week against Purdue. Bryan did throw 3 INT’s (including one that was returned for a TD late in regulation), but he regrouped enough to lead the Gophers to 3 consecutive TD’s at the end of regulation and overtime. So far this year Cupito has passed for 895 yards, 8 TD’s and 5 INT’s. Cupito will have tough task this week, and will really have a chance to prove himself.
At running back for the Gophers is another Big Ten player of the week, Laurence Maroney. The exciting junior certainly has not disappointed so far this season. Maroney already has 698 yards rushing, and is leading the nation at 174 rushing yards per game. A new element in Maroney’s game this year has been his receiving. After catching only 4 balls the first two years as a Gopher, Maroney already has 9 catches for 128 yards and a TD this year. Backing up Maroney is sophomore Gary Russell. There isn’t much of a drop off when Russell comes in the game, as evidenced by his 8 rushing TD’s and 8.1 yards per carry. There was some worry coming into the season that the Minnesota offense would struggle with the early departure of Marion Barber, but that certainly has not been the case so far. Russell’s emergence will certainly help keep Maroney fresh through the long grind of the Big Ten season.
Summary:
This match up is certainly a battle of heavyweights. Penn State is yet another Big Ten team with great linebackers, and Minnesota of course is loaded at the running back position. Even though Penn State has guys like Conner and Posluszny roaming around, I think I like the Minnesota running backs just a little bit more. Gary Russell (dare I say) has proven to be nearly as effective as Maroney so far. I haven’t even mentioned Amir Pinnix (who didn’t see a carry last week against Purdue) who is also capable of coming in and doing a little bit of damage. Normally I would’ve been concerned with Bryan Cupito going up against such good LB’s and a crowd of over 100,000, but I’m not anymore. I may very well be wrong, but it looked to me like Cupito turned a corner last week against Purdue. For the first time as a Gopher, he was able to shrug off adversity and play like a leader on the field rather than just in the huddle. Cupito’s calm confidence helped the Gophers make a rare fourth quarter comeback and victory over a top 10 team. Even though Cupito will make some mistakes, I have a gut feeling that we’ll see a different player in him from now on.
Advantage: Minnesota
Minnesota Offensive Line vs. Penn State Defensive Line:
Penn State returns all four of their starters from the DL last season, Tamba Hali (SR), Jay Alford (JR), Scott Paxson (JR) and Matthew Rice (SR). This group is pretty solid, but quite as good as the three linebackers playing behind them. Rice has been their best player so far with 21 tackles and 2.5 sacks, and Hali is not far behind with 14 tackles and 3.5 sacks. As a whole, the unit does have solid pass rushing abilities, but I don’t think it’s going to be to the point where Minnesota will need to alter their game plan because of it.
The Gopher offensive line is coming off yet another impressive performance. Purdue coach Joe Tiller was the latest coach to laud the Gopher O-Line blocking efforts, saying that there’s no way his team could ever completely prepare for what Greg Eslinger can do. This follows a comment by Florida Atlantic coach Howard Schnellenberger who said that this was the best run blocking offensive line he has seen since Nebraska’s in 1983. This week, Collegefootballnews.com got on board and wrote this article on how a team might be able to stop the Gopher zone blocking attack. We all knew the Gophers have been doing something right the past few years, but what not a lot of people would’ve guessed is that the line could take their level of play up yet another notch this year. It’s still early, but so far it looks like it could be happening. One question this week will be whether or not Joe Ainslie will play after suffering an injury a few weeks ago. Last week Ainslie was dressed, but Steve Shidell got the starting nod once again. Even with Shidell in, the Gopher line does not appear to miss a beat. This week will present a different challenge, one which will have the Gophers face another tough defense, but this time in front of a huge away crowd.
Summary:
What I think is going to be of concern to Penn State this week is their ability to stop the Gopher running game. None of their four starters on the line is over 285 pounds, and that could make it a little easier for the Gopher offensive line to get in their way and make holes for Maroney. On the other hand, since it is a little bit quicker of a line, maybe they will do a better job of getting out and defending the running plays on the edge? It should be another good storyline to follow in this game. I do not expect pass rush to be a factor in this game, unless Minnesota gets behind early and is forced to pass. The Gophers do an excellent job of scheming their offense to not only limit passing, but to keep pass rushers away from Cupito. Expect a good effort from the Lion defensive line, but the Gopher offensive line is playing at such a high level right now I have to give the edge to Minnesota.
Advantage: Minnesota
Minnesota Receivers vs. Penn State Defensive Backs:
This is the area of the defense where Penn State is really good”¦ on paper anyway. All four of Penn State’s starters in the secondary are fifth year seniors. Cornerback Alan Zemaitis is an All-Big Ten player and has been a starter since his sophomore year. At the opposite corner is Anwar Phillips, a player who should challenge for All-Big Ten honors this year. Free Safety Chris HarrellCalvin Lowry is the second year starter at strong safety. Fittingly, Penn State has 4 INT’s so far this year with each player contributing one a piece.
The Gopher wide receivers are still trying to come around. After a good opening game against Tulsa they started to have a few struggles. Last week against Purdue there was a large dry spell of over a quarter where a Gopher WR didn’t catch a pass, and during that time the offense struggled. However, once Ernie Wheelwright and Logan Payne started getting back in the game, the offense started clicking. It’s no secret that the Gopher wideouts need to play well in order for the Gopher offense to go from “œgood” to “œgreat”. A guy to keep an eye on, and someone who finally made some noise last week was tight end Matt Spaeth. After really being hyped up by yours truly before the season, Spaeth had only one reception through the first three games. That changed last week against Purdue when he caught 4 passes for 68 yards and the game tying TD. Tight End will always be the X factor in the Gopher offense. With opposing linebackers forced to pay so much attention to the Gopher running backs, opportunities will be a plenty for the Matt Spaeth and company.
Summary:
Penn State has done reasonably well against the pass so far this year, but with the amount of defensive returnees and the talent they have, I’m sure the coaches are expecting better. Man for man, Penn State matches up against the Gopher wide receivers as well as any team in the Big Ten will this year. Minnesota usually has a large height advantage in this area, but Phillips and Zemaitis go 6’1″ and 6’2″, so you can pretty much cancel that Gopher advantage off. Joe Paterno says they are NOT going to put 8 in the box and stack against the run, because he is afraid of the Gopher play-action game. It will be interesting to see how long that philosophy holds up. Either way, it could be a long day for the Gopher receivers, but there would be no better time for them to make a statement then this Saturday.
Advantage: Penn State
Overall Summary:
One of the exciting things for Nittany Lion fans this year was that almost all of their defensive production returned from last season, from a defense that was ranked in the top 20 nonetheless. After four games Penn State’s defense ranks just 32nd in the nation, and that is against South Florida, Central Michigan, Cincinnati and Northwestern. Coming into this year Purdue was in a similar situation as Penn State, where they returned a wealth of defensive starters. It didn’t matter though, as the Gophers cut through the Boilermaker defense to the tune of 572 yards (50 of which came in the two OT periods). Minnesota has the #5 ranked yardage offense in the nation, and the #8 scoring offense. Something to think about though is this game last year. Penn State held Minnesota to 16 points and made the Gopher rushing offense look ordinary. Will it happen this year? I am guessing no. I really like the way the Gophers are firing on all cylinders right now, while Penn State is not playing it’s best defense just yet. It won’t be as high scoring as past games, but Minnesota will still get it done.
Overall Advantage: Minnesota
Special Teams:
Minnesota continues to struggle in the kicking game. Jason Giannini missed his first field goal of the year, but to his credit did make all his extra points (including one in OT with the result of the game directly in his right foot). Bryan Cupito has taken over as the holder, so maybe that will help Giannini out. After a hot start to the year, punter Justin Kucek has cooled off and his average has dropped to 36 yards/punt, with just 3 of 8 kicks landing inside the 20. The positive for Minnesota though is that they continue to provide excellent kickoff return coverage as well as Dominic Jones returning punts. Penn State goes with Kevin Kelly at kicker, a true freshman who not having any problems with the adjustment to college ball. Kelly is 5-6 on field goals and 16-17 on extra points. Jeremy Kapinos is Penn State’s punter, and he is averaging 42 yards per punt, with 7 of 15 downed inside the 20. Penn State’s talented true freshmen receivers give them a threat in the return game as well.
Edge: Penn State
Final Thoughts:
The Gophers can thank the scheduling Gods for what lies in store for them in the coming weeks. After a tough game against Purdue, the Gopher have a to get their focus back quickly as they make the journey to State College, Pennsylvania to take on a tough and improved Penn State football team. Like the Purdue game, I think all matchups across the board are very close and could go either way. Minnesota has the higher ranking and is a slight favorite, but keep in mind that Penn State gave Minnesota a much tougher than expected game last year. Also, you can beat that coach Joe Paterno will not want his team to lose their fifth in a row to the Gophers, especially when it will be home in front of over 100,000 people. I think this game will be close throughout, but in the end I think Penn State will be the more focused and motivated team. I fear that Minnesota may have hit an emotional peak last week in Purdue and I’m not sure they’ll be able to keep that energy up for this game, especially with the Michigan game looming on the horizon. Here’s to me being wrong for a second straight week!
Prediction: Penn State 30 ““ Minnesota 28
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