At 22 wins the Gophers will be all smiles on Selection Sunday.
LOCK CITY, U.S.A. — Last year at roughly this time, we took a look at a potential path to the NCAA Tournament for the 2013-14 version of the Minnesota Gophers. Road to Selection Sunday estimated the Gophers would need 21 wins (excluding the Big Ten Tournament) to be considered a “lock” for the NCAA tourney bid heading into Indianapolis, site of the 2014 Big Ten tourney.
The Gophers fell short of that number, hitting 19 wins, one coming vs. a non-Division I opponent (Chaminade). The pure definition of a bubble team heading to Indy, the Gophers attempted to get to that 21 number via the back door, beating Penn State for win #20 before getting spanked and embarrassed by eventual Final Four participant Wisconsin. We’ll never know if a win over the Badgers would have cemented the Gophers a spot in the NCAA (for the record I think it would have), but not surprisingly, and deservedly I may add, that left the Gophers on the outside looking in two days later on Selection Sunday.
I wasn’t planning on writing a “path to NCAA Tournament lock status” for the upcoming season, but in the last month or so I’ve had three requests from GopherHole.com members to repeat the column for the 2014-15 Gophers. So what kind of columnist am I if I don’t listen to my readers once in a while and give them what they want?
Please note, I’m not a believer in “magic numbers” as it pertains to teams earning lock status to the NCAA Tournament. All schedules are not created equal, hence, not all win & loss totals are created equal. However, if I were to suggest a number for the 2014-15 Gophers to attain in order to feel completely comfortable about landing in the 2015 Field of 68, that number would be 22. (I REPEAT, THIS 22 EXCLUDES THE BTT. THE GOAL IS TO BE “BUBBLE-FREE” HEADING INTO THE CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT)
Here’s a breakdown of how the Gophers can get to the 22-9 regular-season record, allowing for a smooth and stress-free flight to Chicago for the 2015 BTT. The Gophers’ 31 games are divided into 5 levels. Level 5 games are projected to be the least difficult, Level 1’s the most difficult. We’ll start with Level 5. In parentheses for each level is the estimated minimal record the Gophers need to achieve.
Level 5 (8-0) — These are the cupcakes. Translated, save for one game it’s the non-conference home schedule.
Franklin Pearce (Nov. 20): counting as 1 of the 22 even though Selection Committee won’t count non-DI’s.
UMBC (Nov. 22)
Western Carolina (Dec. 5)
North Dakota (Dec. 8)
Southern U (Dec. 10)
Seattle (Dec. 19)
Furman (Dec. 22)
NC-Wilmington (Dec. 27)
Level 4 (5-0) — Should put up a fight, but these (home) losses would look bad on the resume.
Western Kentucky (Nov. 18)
Rutgers (Jan. 17)
Purdue (Feb. 7)
Northwestern (Feb. 18)
Penn State (March 8)
Level 3 (3-2) — We should expect Gophers to win but a loss wouldn’t be a huge surprise.
@ Wake Forest (Dec. 2)
@ Purdue (Dec. 31)
@ Maryland (Jan. 3)
@ Penn State (Jan. 28)
@ Indiana (Feb. 15)
Level 2 (3-3) — Opponents most similar to the Gophers, realistic NCAA expectations.
vs. Saint John’s (Nov. 26)
Iowa (Jan. 13)
@ Nebraska (Jan. 20)
Illinois (Jan. 24)
Nebraska (Jan. 31)
@ Iowa (Feb. 12)
Level 1 (3-4) — Wear the big-boy pants. Every NCAA resume needs at least a couple big knockers.
vs. Louisville (Nov. 14)
vs. Gonzaga/Georgia (Nov. 28)
Ohio State (Jan. 6)
@ Michigan (Jan. 10)
@ Wisconsin (Feb. 21)
@ Michigan State (Feb. 26)
Wisconsin (March 5)
Achieve this, go 22-9 (21-9 vs, DI opponents), and percentages are the Gophers will have at least five or six RPI top-50 wins. That would be more than enough to earn them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As a comparison, last season the Gophers only had two RPI top-50 wins (Wisconsin, Ohio State), along with two others (#54 Florida State, #56 Iowa) just outside the top 50.