Gopher Football
Wisconsin Rushing Offense vs. Minnesota Rushing Defense
Despite the loss of four year starter running back Anthony Davis, the Wisconsin ground game has been right about where you would expect a Wisconsin’s team to be. That is because former Colorado transfer Brian Calhoun has stepped in to the spotlight and performed beautifully. The 5’10″ 195 pound Calhoun ranks 5th in the nation in rushing yards with 142 yards per game, and is tied for the national lead with 11 rushing TD’s. Calhoun is similar in stature to Mike Hart, the running back the Gophers faced last week, but there’s not a lot in common with the running styles. Hart is more of a straight ahead power runner, and Calhoun likes to dance to the outside and use his quickness. So even though the Gopher defense did a relatively good job in containing Hart last week, there’s no guarantee that they’ll have similar luck stopping Calhoun tomorrow. Calhoun runs behind an outstanding offensive line. The line is anchored by senior Donovan Raiola, likely the best center in the conference after #61 for the Gophers. Raiola is his third season as a starter for the Badgers, and was an honorable mention All-Big Ten selection a year ago. Junior left tackle Joe Thomas is also another guy to watch on the Badgers offensive front.
After allowing 364 yards rushing to Penn State two week ago, the Gopher rushing defense was able to recover a little bit last week against Michigan, allowing only 92 yards on 34 carries to the Wolverines. Both the defensive line and the linebackers did their part in limiting the Wolverines. In particular, Anthony Montgomery, Mario Reese and Kyle McKenzie all did a good job in run support. Kyle McKenzie actually doubled his tackles total in one week, moving up to 26 on the season after recording 13 against Michigan. So Minnesota allowed 364 yards rushing to Penn State, but held Michigan to less then 100. What gives? A big difference is that Penn State is more of a speed and deception attack, while Michigan’s is more of a power, straight at you attack. In looking at Wisconsin this week, I see a little bit of a mix. Wisconsin is traditionally more of a power rushing team like Michigan, but they also have some athletic offensive linemen and a quick back, so that does concern me. All facets of the Gopher rushing defense will have to turn in a similar performance to the one they had a week ago to keep Brian Calhoun from running wild.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Wisconsin Passing Offense vs. Minnesota Passing Defense
Like Minnesota, Wisconsin doesn’t have a ton to brag about when it comes to throwing the football. The good news for the Badgers however is that things are looking up. Last week against Northwestern, Badger QB John Stocco threw for 326 yards and 4 TD’s, both career highs. The 326 yards was the sixth best passing performance in Wisconsin history. (Before everyone gets too worried about Stocco though, remember that Northwestern does have a terrible defense.) Stocco has improved since last year, but most Badger fans would probably tell you that they’re not convinced he is ready to throw the team on his back and lead them to victory. One thing Stocco does have is two very good wide receivers to throw to. Both Jonathan Orr and Brandon Williams have played in nearly every game of their career, and each has over 20 career starts. Williams is generally considered the more dangerous of the duo, but that didn’t stop Orr from receiving a career high 4 TD passes last week. Not to be forgotten in the Badger receiving game is Brian Calhoun. Last weekend Calhoun became the first Badger player ever to have 100 yards rushing and 100 yards receiving in the same game. Calhoun actually leads Wisconsin in receptions with 26. The last big cog in the Wisconsin passing attack is senior tight end Owen Daniels. Daniels has torched the Gophers in the past is a certainly a player that Minnesota will have their eye on tomorrow. So far this year Daniels has 11 receptions for 140 yards and 3 TD’s.
I knew the Gophers have been doing better in pass defense so far this year, but until this week I didn’t realize just how much better they have been. If you haven’t followed the Gophers closely this year, you would probably be as surprised to learn that Minnesota is 5th in the conference in passing yards allowed. And even better, if you believe in the “˜passing efficiency’ statistic, Minnesota is doing even better at 2nd! Yep, 2nd. There are a couple big reasons for the improvements to date. The biggest is perhaps the play of sophomore cornerback Jamal Harris. After having a career best game at Penn State two weeks ago, Harris came back with another solid performance against Michigan. Harris spent a good portion of the day covering Jason Avant, probably the best receiver in the Big Ten this year. The other big reason has been the play of true freshman defensive end Steve Davis. The undersized, yet always hard working DE added 2 more sacks last weekend, bringing his season total up to 5. The play of Davis and Harris is a big reason why Michigan was only 3 of 14 on 3rd downs last week, and why the Gophers have significantly improved their 3rd & long defense this season. As for this game, I think it’s pretty even. Though I think the Harris and Trumaine Banks will do a good job on the Wisconsin wideouts, the Badgers have more diversity than that to their passing game. Before I’m made a completely believer in the Gopher passing defense, I want to see them shut down a dangerous receiving RB, and Calhoun certainly is one of those.
Advantage: Even
Minnesota Rushing Offense vs. Wisconsin Rushing Defense
To date, the Wisconsin rushing defense has not been that good. After putting up some great numbers in the non-conference portion of their schedule, the Badger rushing defense has been brought back down to earth through three weeks of Big Ten play. In the opener, a Mike Hart-less Michigan team rushed for 150 yards on them, Indiana rushed for 125 (while having to play a catch-up passing game for much of the afternoon) and last week Northwestern ran for 320 yards on the Badgers. Those numbers make Wisconsin the 7th ranked rushing defense in conference games. The Badger linebackers are pretty decent. The best of the group is junior Mark Zalewski. He is second on the team in tackles with 38, but leads the team by a wide margin in tackles for loss with 8. The leading tackler for the Badgers with 44 is Dontez Sanders. For the most part, Sanders is to the Badger defense as Terrance Campbell was to the Gopher defense the last few years. Sanders is only 210 pounds, but lead the team in tackles last year with 76.
In a way, the Gopher running game came full circle last week against Michigan. After becoming known for the Barber ““ Maroney combo the past two seasons, it was figured that Laurence Maroney would be the clear workhorse this year. But as the season has gone on, sophomore Gary Russell is emerging beside Maroney as another big running threat for the Gophers. Two weeks ago against Penn State, Gary Russell actually had more yards than Maroney, and on fewer carries. Last week against Michigan Russell had just 1 yard less rushing than Maroney on half the carries (18 carries, 128 yards), including the 61 yard run that put the Gophers in game winning FG position, as well as an incredible 6 yard first down run where he broke a tackle 4 yards deep in the backfield. In front of the running backs, the Gopher offensive line just keeps doing its thing, so there’s no problem there. With the game back on turf (where the Gopher rushing attack excels) and Wisconsin still licking its wounds after allowing 321 rushing yards to Northwestern last week, I’m confident in the Gopher’s chances to continue to move the ball on the ground.
Advantage: Minnesota
Minnesota Passing Offense vs. Wisconsin Passing Defense
Like the rushing defense, the Wisconsin passing defense also looks to be vulnerable. Bowling Green (458), Northwestern (361), North Carolina (281), Michigan (251) and Indiana (244) have all managed pretty good passing days against the Badgers so far. The good news for Wisconsin is that they have countered with 16 sacks, which ties for 2nd best in the conference. A funny stat for Wisconsin is that the 16 sacks have been spread out amongst 11 players. No one player has more then 2.5 sacks, so it’s been a team effort in its truest sense. Wisconsin has 4 new starters on the line this year, and so far the best one has been sophomore Nick Hayden. Hayden has 29 tackles so far, which is very good for a defensive tackle, and he is one of the players who has 2.5 sacks. In the secondary, senior cornerback Brett Bell is the clear leader. Bell is in his second year as a starter, and leads the secondary with tackles (21), tackles for loss (1.5), passes defended (6), and interceptions (1 ““ tied).
The Gopher passing offense continues to be non-spectacular, but it’s doing what it needs to do, when it needs to it. The big concern this week, obviously, is the health of starting quarterback Bryan Cupito. The junior QB was just starting to come into his own over the past few weeks when he got his bell rung a couple times by LaMarr Woodley and had to leave the game in the fourth quarter. Redshirt freshman Tony Mortensen replaced Cupito, but did not attempt a pass. Word is Mortensen has a big arm, but not surprisingly his command of the offense is not nearly as good as Cupito’s. As of right now it is believed that Cupito will play, but whether or not he will be 100% is the big question. As for the match up, I really don’t know what to expect. I do think the Minnesota will try to establish the run (even more than normal) because of the uncertainly surrounding Cupito, but Wisconsin has also shown to be vulnerable through the air. They could be even more vulnerable if they continue the tradition of stacking the box to stop the Gopher run. If Cupito can stay in the game and stay healthy I think I’d give the slight edge to Minnesota, but I’m not completely confident that will happen.
Advantage: Even
Special Teams Notes
Gopher kicker Jason Giannini continues to improve. Going back to the 1st quarter missed FG against Purdue, Giannini has made 14 straight kicks, with 3 of those (2 XP’s, 1 FG) having direct impact on the Gophers winning or losing a game. Punter Justin Kucek also continues to improve. Even though his yardage was helped out by some rolls last week, he should be credited for keeping the ball out of the dangerous Steve Breaston’s hands on punt returns. Wisconsin has the best punter in the Big Ten at the moment. Ken DeBausche is averaging an impressive 47 yards per boot. At kicker, Taylor Mehlhaff is also having a nice season. Mehlhaff is 31-32 on XP’s, and 8-9 on FG’s. His lone miss was from beyond 50 yards. More impressive though is that Mehlaff has 19 touchbacks on his 44 kickoffs. Most importantly for Gophers fans though, is Wisconsin has a very good return man in Brandon Williams. Williams is 1st in the Big Ten in kickoff returns (36 yards/return) and 2nd in punt returns (18 yards/return) including 2 TD’s. Minnesota probably will have their hands full in the special teams department tomorrow. What is of most concern is trying to stop Williams after allowing Steve Breaston to score on a kickoff return last week.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Final Thoughts
This one should really be a barnburner. Both teams have offenses that can score, and both teams have defenses that have given up points. I like Minnesota a little better though, and here’s why. After getting thumped by Penn State two weeks ago, Mason had the team ready to play against Michigan. Not only did they play well, they won. This week, I think that will continue. The players know this importance of this rivalry, so Coach Mason probably did not have to work very hard to motivate the team this week. On the other hand, the Badgers have to still be licking their wounds after giving up 51 points and 657 yards in a demoralizing defensive performance against Northwestern last week. I just don’t see those two different directions as a good thing for Wisconsin, especially with the game in Minnesota. The home team has won 5 straight games in this series, and the Badgers have not won a game by more than 7 points at Minnesota since 1983. The experienced Gopher offensive line will handle the inexperienced Badger front four, and both Laurence Maroney and Gary Russell with go for over 100 yards for the second straight week. In a game that will be close for a while, but not as much at the end”¦.
Prediction: Minnesota 41 ““ Wisconsin 27