Gopher Football
Ohio State Rushing Offense vs. Minnesota Rushing Defense
As has been the case for the past few years, Ohio State is struggling on offense. The Buckeyes rank 7th in the Big 10 in rushing offense, 10th in passing offense (which is good for 9th in total offense), and just 8th in scoring offense. Generally, the Buckeyes play a conservative offensive game that will score just enough points for their defense to get the win. On the ground, Ohio State is lead by sophomore running back Antonio Pittman. The true sophomore has 716 yards on 136 carries. Strangely enough though, he doesn’t have any touchdowns. That’s because quarterback Troy Smith has 8 TD’s, already the most by an OSU quarterback in more than 25 years. Speaking of Smith, he is second on the team in rushing with 353 yards. Considering he has lost 74 yards on sacks, that’s a pretty solid total. Up front, the Buckeye offensive line is just average. Their leader is senior center Nick Mangold, a Lombardi and Rimington award candidate. As a team, Ohio State is 7th in the Big Ten with a 4.2 yard rushing average.
Like the OSU rushing offense, the Gopher run defense has been pretty average as well. The Gophers are 6th in the Big Ten in rushing defense, and 4th in total defense. If not for the Penn State game when the Gopher defense gave up 364 yards on the ground, they would be ranked higher a little higher and find themselves a little more respected. After the Penn State debacle, the Gophers did rebound nicely with solid performances against more traditional running teams like Michigan and Wisconsin. Unfortunately for Minnesota, I see a little bit of Penn State when I look at the OSU offense. Troy Smith is a good running QB (like Robinson), they have a solid running back in Pittman (like Hunt), and they have a dynamic athlete who can take an end around and outrun everyone on the field to the end zone in Ted Ginn (like Williams). The biggest difference I see between Penn State and Ohio State is that the Buckeye offensive line is probably not as good as the Lions. Still though, it will likely be a tough task for Minnesota to try and slow down Ohio State on the ground, and I’m especially worried about Smith taking off for big gainers.
Advantage: Ohio State
Ohio State Passing Offense vs. Minnesota Passing Defense
Considering the weapons that Ohio State has in the passing game, it has to be a huge disappointment to Buckeye fans that they have not seen more production so far. Santonio Holmes (32 catches, 579 yards 5 TD’s) and Ted Ginn (24 catches, 329 yards, 2 TD’s) are about as dangerous of a wide receiver duo as you will find anywhere in the nation. Both of these guys are small (Holmes is 5’11″, Ginn is 6’0″), but both of them are extremely fast and can blow by you in an instant. Despite the presence of these two weapons though, OSU is ranked just 10th in the Big Ten in passing offense at 200 yards/game. “œWhy”, you ask? I see two reasons. First is the quarterback situation. Justin Zwick was once thought of the as the quarterback of the future for the Buckeyes, but he has just been too inconsistent in his limited time to warrant being the full time starter. Which brings us back to Troy Smith. Though he’s not quite as good of a passer as Zwick, Smith gives OSU much more of a threat on the ground, and has proven over the last 1+ years that he is the better QB for that offense. The other reason I believe, is the play calling. Like I mentioned earlier, Ohio State calls a conservative offensive game. You could watch them over a period of a few games and not realize the dynamic playmakers they have in Ginn and Holmes. The most staggering number to me is that Ginn is only averaging 13 yards per catch. Considering Ginn’s athletic and breakaway abilities, I think the OSU coaches have been a little bit chicken in their play calling, and that they need to make a large effort to take advantage of his talents from here on out.
In the last preview I wrote I praised the Gopher pass defense for having put together a solid year up to that point. I guess I jinxed them, because against the Badgers the passing “˜D’ saw some of its old habits come back into the picture. The Gophers allowed John Stocco to throw for 235 yards on just 15 completions. More disheartening was the fact that for the first time in a while the Gophers allowed several completions on 3rd and longs; something that has been a problem the last few years. Never the less, I am still encouraged about the passing “˜D’ as a whole, and I think they have a big challenge in front of them this week. As far as matchups, it will be fun. Neither Trumaine Banks and Jamal Harris are ones to shy away from contact, so what I really want to see this week is for them to be physical with Ginn and Holmes. I’m already having nightmares about Ted Ginn being given space on the Metrodome turf, and I think the resolution to those nightmares will be to prevent Ginn from ever getting in rhythm. This will also be a huge game for Gopher frosh Dominic Jones. Little did the guy know when he signed here last February that he would be in the starting lineup against his hometown Buckeyes, but with Brandon Owens injury that’s exactly where he’ll find himself. Jones will have to be on top of his assignments, because I have a feeling he’ll need to help out on a deep route or two. On talent alone I would give Ohio State the advantage, but I’m just not seeing it happening. The Buckeyes have struggled to find a consistent passing game that works, and the Gopher secondary is playing with some increased confidence this year, which I think will help them out on Saturday.
Advantage: Even
Minnesota Rushing Offense vs. Ohio State Rushing Defense
For the second time this season, the Gopher rushing attack will face off against the #1 ranked rushing defense in the nation. The first time this happened, against Purdue, the Gophers churned out 301 yards on the ground, but chances are very slim that they will be able to repeat that this weekend. The Buckeyes are lead by their ultra-hyped group of linebackers, A.J. Hawk, Bobby Carpenter, and Anthony Schlegel. All three are seniors, all three are fast, and all three need a haircut. Hawk is the best of the bunch, perhaps establishing himself as the best linebacker in the country this year. Even though he’s 240 pounds, he’s faster than a lot of running backs. Hawk is ranked 5th in the Big Ten in tackles with 11/game, but his stats go beyond that. He has 9 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. Hawk is all over the field will be a huge challenge for the Gopher blockers. The concern for OSU in this matchup though will be in the defensive line. It takes a total effort from the front 7 to slow down the Gopher running game, so they key to stopping Minnesota may line with the line stepping up and playing their best game of the year.
The Gopher running game continued their string of amazing performances at home by rushing for 411 yards against the Badgers two weeks ago. Going backwards through the Big Ten schedule, Minnesota’s home rushing totals have been 411 (Wisconsin), 301 (Purdue), 337 (Iowa 04), 319 (Illinois 04), 288 (Penn State, 04), 251 (Northwestern, 04), 336 (Wisconsin 03), and 435 (Indiana). The Gophers have a streak of 8 straight home Big Ten games where they have rushed for at least 250 yards, with the four most recent games all going over 300 yards. That’s pretty impressive considering they’ve done it against defenses like Wisconsin in 03, Penn State & Iowa in 04, and Purdue in 05. The one team Minnesota has not faced at home during this run (and actually, since 2001) is Ohio State, so they will have their chance to add to the streak on Saturday. As for the aspects of the rushing game, Minnesota shouldn’t need to change a thing. The offensive line continues to do its thing with blocking, and Laurence Maroney and Gary Russell continue to do theirs running the ball. As usual, Minnesota is getting excellent blocking from the wide receivers and tight ends, so really the only thing I can see that will slow Minnesota down is turnovers or falling behind. If they can avoid those, I think the Maroon & Gold will have the slight edge and should go for around 200 yards.
Advantage: Minnesota
Minnesota Passing Offense vs. Ohio State Passing Defense
I hope Minnesota’s rushing game is working in this game, because if they have to rely on the pass it could be a really long day. Ohio State has the best passing defense in the Big Ten, allowing just 164 yards per game. The main reason for this success has been the amount of pressure they’ve been able to generate on opposition QB’s. The Buckeyes lead the Big Ten, and are third in the nation with 31 sacks (compared to just 12 for Minnesota). They’re lead by an unlikely character; linebacker Bobby Carpenter with 8. His partner at LB A.J. Hawk has chipped in 4.5, and Mike Kudla at defensive end has chipped in 5.5. Ten different Buckeyes have sacks, and 5 of them have at least two, so it’s been a complete team effort in generating pressure. Surprisingly, all of the QB pressure has not resulted in very many interceptions. Ashton Youboty, the Buckeye’s best cornerback, does not have a pick as of yet. Strong safety Donte Whitner is the only player with more than one.
This will be a difficult challenge for the Gopher passing game. I mentioned the pressure that OSU can generate above. On top of that, the Gopher passing game isn’t exactly what you’d call “œclicking” right now. Minnesota threw for just 99 yards against Wisconsin, and just 139 yards the week before at Michigan. It didn’t help that quarterback Bryan Cupito has missed most of the last five quarters though, so perhaps his return this weekend will provide a spark. As far as the Gopher receivers go, it’s been a quiet season. Jared Ellerson leads the group with 318 yards, but that doesn’t even come close to ranking in the top 10 in the conference. The ability of the receivers is still there, but like Ohio State it’s more just been getting them the ball that has been the problem. Barring a big revival, I don’t see why this will change this week.
Advantage: Ohio State
Special Teams Notes
There’s not too much for Minnesota to get excited about here. Ohio State is solidly better than the Gophers in almost every aspect of special teams.
| Extra Points: | OSU 23-23 | MINN 26-31 |
| Field Goals: | OSU 13-16 | MINN 12-15 |
| Punt Avg: | OSU 42.1 | MINN 37.4 |
| Punt Covg: | OSU 1.2 | MINN 3.7 |
| Kick Covg: | MINN 18.6 | OSU 19.4 |
| Touchbacks: | OSU 24 | MINN 2 |
| Punt Return: | OSU 12.2 | MINN 10.8 |
| Kick Return: | MINN 24.5 | OSU 21.3 |
These numbers don’t even mention the horror story of how Minnesota lost their last game. In the final series against Wisconsin last week, the Gophers initially failed to recover an onsides kick (but eventually did after it traveled 40 yards downfield), and then muffed a punt snap and had punt block which was the winning touchdown. Not to mention, Minnesota’s kicker is a freshman and Ohio State’s is a 6th year senior. Oh yeah, and Ohio State also has Ted Ginn, who is a TD threat any time he touches the ball on a return. I will be very happy (and a little surprised) if Ohio State does not have a special teams score in this game, whether it be by return or a block.
Advantage: Ohio State
Final Thoughts
Has there been a more hyped matchup in any Gopher football game in recent memory than that of the Gopher rushing offense vs. the Ohio State rushing defense? I can’t remember one, and it’s not difficult to see why. Ohio State has the most hyped group of linebackers in the nation, and Minnesota has the most hyped rushing offense. Neither group has disappointed so far, so it will definitely be an exciting battle. I have confidence that Minnesota will see success rushing the football, but I’m not confident they’ll see a lot of success anywhere else. The passing defense could struggle unless the running game is absolutely lights out and can setup some play action fakes, the Buckeye QB, Troy Smith, is a type of player who has traditionally given the Gopher defense trouble, and I fear that our special teams will get waxed. We do have some things going for us though. First we are coming off a bye week. Our first real bye week in three years couldn’t have come at a better time. Bryan Cupito has had time to rest, and hopefully study film. The other big reason could be our emotions. With 17 Ohio natives playing against their home state university, many for the first time, I think we could get maximum effort out of a lot of players. I have Oho State ranked #10 though, and it’s for a good reason. They are a tough team, and it will take an extraordinary game by Minnesota to beat them. I am only 1-3 in my Big Ten picks with the Gophers, so after this one I hope I am 1-4.
Prediction: Ohio State 27 ““ Minnesota 17
Talk about the match up on the Gopher Football Message Board.