Gopher Football
Virginia Rushing Offense vs. Minnesota Rushing Defense
Despite underachieving somewhat during the season, Virginia will bring a very capable rushing attack to the table Friday against Minnesota. The leading runner for UVA is Wali Lundy, a 5’10″ 210 lbs senior running back. After rushing for over 800 yards during his first three seasons, Lundy was looked at as a guy who could have a huge senior season. But that big season hasn’t materialized just yet, as during the first 11 games he has just 556 yards and 8 TD’s. Even though that is a pretty low total for the leader of a rushing team, the positive side of that statistic is that the Cavaliers do have balance. UVA has five guys that have rushed for at least 237 yards, so if one aspect of the rushing attack isn’t working they have the versatility to go a different direction. If history in any indication, Lundy won’t be the guy the Gophers are most worried about; quarterback Marques Hagans will be. What scares me about Hagans is that he is possibly as close of a QB to Michael Robinson as the Gophers will see this year. The speedy 5’10″ Hagans is an excellent runner, and with two straight 2000 yard passing season, he is a proven passer as well.
The Gopher rush defense is coming off a somewhat successful year, by Gopher standards anyway. Minnesota ranked just 71st in the nation in rush defense, but if you take away the one game against Penn State where they were completely overmatched they would be several spots higher. But like I mentioned above, Virginia might have a little bit of Penn State in them when it comes to their rushing game. On every play, the Gophers will need to worry about the tailback as well as the quarterback, and over the past several years that type of defensive situation has not been one of the Gophers strong points. The entire Gopher defense will have to step up their game if they want to keep the UVA ground game in check.
Advantage: Virginia
Virginia Passing Offense vs. Minnesota Passing Defense
At wide receiver, Virginia has a very good player in junior Deyon Williams. After not doing too much his first two seasons, Williams had a breakout year in hauling in 52 passes for 679 yards and 6 TD’s. At 6’3″, Williams has some size to go along with his good speed. He will be a handful for either Trumaine Banks or Jamal Harris, and could be a like subject for Gopher double coverage. After Williams though, Virginia really doesn’t have a clear-cut threat. Senior Ottowa Anderson and junior Fontel Mines have split 10 of the 11 games as starters, and neither has more than 313 receiving yards.
The Gopher pass defense had some better flashes this year, but more often than not the end result has been the same. Numerous times the Gophers have given up conversions on third and long situations, largely because of their inability to generate QB pressure. But in this game, I actually have a good feeling about the Gopher pass rush. The biggest reason is because the top Gopher pass rusher, Steve Davis, should be fresh and ready to go. Consdiring Davis is an undersized true freshman, it’s not a surprise that he faded down the stretch of the Big Ten schedule. Hopefully with 6 weeks off Davis has his legs back and is ready to be a pass rushing force once again. Secondly is that the Virginia offensive line has allowed 33 sacks this year. Even though the Cavaliers have All American D’Brickashaw Ferguson on their line, the rest of the unit has struggled to protect the quarterback. I do think that we will see a better effort than normal by the Gopher defense, but I’ve just seen too many struggles this year to be convinced that the Gophers will be able to completely shut down the UVA passing game.
Advantage: Even
Minnesota Rushing Offense vs. Virginia Rushing Defense
This is where the game could get really ugly for Virginia. First, the obvious. Minnesota has a great rushing team; we all know that by now. Second, Virginia has a below average run defense ranking 58th in the nation. Third, and perhaps most damaging, is Virginia will be without several key defensive players. Both of Virginia’s starting safeties, Tony Franklin and Nate Lyles are out. Both are ranked in UVA’s top 6 in tackles, and both will be replaced by former walkons. Also missing will be star linebacker Ahmad Brooks. Though he hasn’t made much of an impact this year because of injuries, Brooks is a top 15-NFL draft pick type of talent, and his absence will hurt Virginia. The best player on the Virginia defense, and perhaps their best chance of slowing down Minnesota is junior linebacker Kai Parham.
For the Gophers, they just need to keep doing more of the same. The Gophers are led by three All Americans in their rushing attack, RB Laurence Maroney and offensive linemen Greg Eslinger and Mark Setterstrom. All three players have been stalwarts in three of the best rushing seasons in school history. With the possibility of Maroney leaving early for the NFL draft, you can bet all three will be determined to go out with a bang. Even if backup running back Gary Russell doesn’t play (as has been rumored), don’t expect much of a dropoff with third stringer Amir Pinnix. The Gophers have a talented, veteran offensive line that will provide rushing lanes no matter who is the running back.
Advantage: Minnesota
Minnesota Passing Offense vs. Virginia Passing Defense
The Gopher passing offense is only ranked #64 in the nation, but that number is deceptively low for two reasons. First, is the passing game at the end of the season was better than it was at the beginning of the season. Second, you started to get the feeling later in the season that if Minnesota’s rushing offense wasn’t so good, the passing offense would be capable of much more. Add to that senior Jared Ellerson’s return at receiver to a group that includes Logan Payne, Ernie Wheelwright, Jakari Wallace and Matt Spaeth, and Minnesota should be as prepared as they have been all year to put up some yards through the air.
Defensively, there is the potential the Virginia could struggle in this aspect as well. Besides linebacker Kai Parham, nobody on the team has consistently been able to get to the quarterback. The sack leader on the defensive line is defensive end Brennan Schmit with 4. Throw in the fact that the Gopher offensive line has allowed just 3 sacks all season, and Virginia will have a hard time getting to Bryan Cupito. In the defensive secondary, Virginia does have a very good cornerback in Marcus Hamilton. He has 5 interceptions and is second on the team in tackles with 60. But remember, Virginia will be without both of its starting safeties, so that will really put a lot of pressure on those CB’s. Throw in the fact that Virginia will likely be focusing on stopping the run, and I think we could see the Gopher passing attack have a big game as well.
Advantage: Minnesota
Special Teams Notes
As usual, the Gophers will be at a disadvantage on special teams. Hopefully the 6 weeks off have helped the freshmen kickers, but even if they have improved the Cavaliers will probably still hold a slight advantage. Among the problems Minnesota will hoped to have worked out by now will be: 8 missed XP’s, 2 TD’s on kickoff returns allowed, and dropping punt snaps. Meanwhile, Virginia has the best kicker in the ACC in Connor Hughes. He is perfect on XP’s (32-32), and has missed just 3 FG’s (19-22). If the game is close, this will definitely bode in Virginia’s favor, but hopefully it’s not something we’ll have to worry about.
Advantage: Virginia
Final Thoughts
Quite frankly, I’m surprised Minnesota is only a 4.5 point favorite in this game. Minnesota has the 5th ranked offense in the nation, and Virginia the 52nd ranked defense. Take away three of Virginia’s better players on defense, and that defense will be even worse. Unless Minnesota implodes offensively, I don’t see how they will not score 31+. The only way I can see that not happening is for the Cavaliers to play 8 guys up to try and stop the run, and then really hope that their cornerbacks can come through with a huge game with lots of 1 on 1 coverage. That’s a risky proposition though, and the Gophers have proven this year that they can pass against even the best defenses. The other way of stopping the Gopher offense is to make a couple early stops and then hope your offense comes out on fire. If Virginia can get up 17-0 or so quickly on Minnesota (such as Iowa and Penn State did), then Minnesota’s offensive philosophy will unravel a little bit and they’ll be a little easier to contain.
But as we know, against the Gopher defense so team is ever really out of it. The two teams that did really well against the Gophers this year were Iowa (a hot passing QB) and Penn State (and explosively athletic rushing team). So there is more than one way to light up the Gopher defense. One reason I am optimistic though is that the Gopher coaches have been a great job in recent years in bowl game preparation. Minnesota has three straight bowl wins, and I think there is something to be said for that. Barring Virginia taking a quick lead or a lot of Gopher turnovers, I think that the Gopher running game will dominate and it will be too much for Virginia’s offense to keep up.
Prediction: Minnesota 43 ““ Virginia 28
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