SEC/Big Ten top Early Power Rankings

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SplitDecision

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During this dead period before summer practices start, here are the Torvik TRank Projections (based on analytics of roster composition) for each P5 conference. Clearly the SEC and BIG TEN project as the best conferences from top to bottom. However, if you look at only the top 10 teams in each conference..., nothing changes...

SEC
Average rank entire conference 38
Rank top 10 teams 25

Big Ten
Ave. rank entire conference 39
Rank top 10 teams 25

Big 12
Ave rank entire conference 50
Rank top 10 teams 30

Big East
Ave rank entire conference 54
Rank top 10 teams 47

ACC
Ave rank entire conference 70
Rank top 10 teams 44

The SEC has all16 teams in the top 68 ranking, while the Big Ten has 17 in top 68. The B12 currently owns the top 3 teams in TRank (Houston-1, Iowa St.-2, Kansas-3) but the falloff after the top 5 is sharp. The ACC is clearly the disappointment with only Duke (5) and UNC (8) in upper echelon, Pitt (26) third in conf. Big East top five teams strong (Creighton-6, UConn-7, SJ-15, Xav-17, Marq-18) before the falloff bottom six.

We all fully expect the standings to look entirely different in January, but it should be interesting to revisit and see how much coaching and team chemistry matter in the standings/rank vs. personnel thrown together on a team. MN sits at #64 rank currently.

Big Ten TRank
10 PUR
11 UCLA
20 MSU
21 IND
23 USC
28 MICH
32 NW
33 RUT
34 OSU
37 WIS
38 NEB
44 MD
46 ORE
52 WASH
53 IOWA
60 ILL
64 MN
94 PSU
 

SplitDecision said:
During this dead period before summer practices start, here are the Torvik TRank Projections (based on analytics of roster composition) for each P5 conference. Clearly the SEC and BIG TEN project as the best conferences from top to bottom. However, if you look at only the top 10 teams in each conference..., nothing changes...

SEC
Average rank entire conference 38
Rank top 10 teams 25

Big Ten
Ave. rank entire conference 39
Rank top 10 teams 25

Big 12
Ave rank entire conference 50
Rank top 10 teams 30

Big East
Ave rank entire conference 54
Rank top 10 teams 47

ACC
Ave rank entire conference 70
Rank top 10 teams 44

The SEC has all16 teams in the top 68 ranking, while the Big Ten has 17 in top 68. The B12 currently owns the top 3 teams in TRank (Houston-1, Iowa St.-2, Kansas-3) but the falloff after the top 5 is sharp. The ACC is clearly the disappointment with only Duke (5) and UNC (8) in upper echelon, Pitt (26) third in conf. Big East top five teams strong (Creighton-6, UConn-7, SJ-15, Xav-17, Marq-18) before the falloff bottom six.

We all fully expect the standings to look entirely different in January, but it should be interesting to revisit and see how much coaching and team chemistry matter in the standings/rank vs. personnel thrown together on a team. MN sits at #64 rank currently.

Big Ten TRank
10 PUR
11 UCLA
20 MSU
21 IND
23 USC
28 MICH
32 NW
33 RUT
34 OSU
37 WIS
38 NEB
44 MD
46 ORE
52 WASH
53 IOWA
60 ILL
64 MN
94 PSU
Click to expand...
I can't argue against it... However maybe it's the gophers time to be the surprise...
 

SplitDecision said:
During this dead period before summer practices start, here are the Torvik TRank Projections (based on analytics of roster composition) for each P5 conference. Clearly the SEC and BIG TEN project as the best conferences from top to bottom. However, if you look at only the top 10 teams in each conference..., nothing changes...

SEC
Average rank entire conference 38
Rank top 10 teams 25

Big Ten
Ave. rank entire conference 39
Rank top 10 teams 25

Big 12
Ave rank entire conference 50
Rank top 10 teams 30

Big East
Ave rank entire conference 54
Rank top 10 teams 47

ACC
Ave rank entire conference 70
Rank top 10 teams 44

The SEC has all16 teams in the top 68 ranking, while the Big Ten has 17 in top 68. The B12 currently owns the top 3 teams in TRank (Houston-1, Iowa St.-2, Kansas-3) but the falloff after the top 5 is sharp. The ACC is clearly the disappointment with only Duke (5) and UNC (8) in upper echelon, Pitt (26) third in conf. Big East top five teams strong (Creighton-6, UConn-7, SJ-15, Xav-17, Marq-18) before the falloff bottom six.

We all fully expect the standings to look entirely different in January, but it should be interesting to revisit and see how much coaching and team chemistry matter in the standings/rank vs. personnel thrown together on a team. MN sits at #64 rank currently.

Big Ten TRank
10 PUR
11 UCLA
20 MSU
21 IND
23 USC
28 MICH
32 NW
33 RUT
34 OSU
37 WIS
38 NEB
44 MD
46 ORE
52 WASH
53 IOWA
60 ILL
64 MN
94 PSU
Click to expand...
It’s a step up from the 144 we started at last season
 




It is really crazy how much better the Big Ten is going to be next year!! Looking at final TRank standings and ratings from '23-'24 compared to the projected '24-'25 TRank, there are teams like UCLA, MICH, and IND that are taking potential gigantic leaps up in national rankings. MN is projected to be a significantly better team analytically than last year, yet they are expected to finish 17th due to the strength of the Big Ten. Here's a look at the '23-'24 ranking vs. Projected '24-'25.

Last yr final TRank/'25 Projected/ '25 Rating/ Rating change YOY
3 11 PUR .9169 -.480
88 12 UCLA .9168 +.185
18 19 MSU .8924 -.009
83 22 IND .8901 +.145
70 24 USC .8865 +.111
118 29 MICH .8772 +.240
37 32 NW .8728 +.014
105 33 RUT .8720 +.192
41 34 OSU .8710 +.017
25 37 WIS .8644 -.025
26 38 NEB .8627 -.026
68 46 MD .8503 +.072
59 48 WASH .8479 +.042
52 49 ORE .8465 +.020
54 50 IOWA .8429 +.021
13 60 ILL .8228 -.102
77 70 MN .8129 +.056
75 97 PSU .7235 -.039
 

SplitDecision said:
It is really crazy how much better the Big Ten is going to be next year!! Looking at final TRank standings and ratings from '23-'24 compared to the projected '24-'25 TRank, there are teams like UCLA, MICH, and IND that are taking potential gigantic leaps up in national rankings. MN is projected to be a significantly better team analytically than last year, yet they are expected to finish 17th due to the strength of the Big Ten. Here's a look at the '23-'24 ranking vs. Projected '24-'25.

Last yr final TRank/'25 Projected/ '25 Rating/ Rating change YOY
3 11 PUR .9169 -.480
88 12 UCLA .9168 +.185
18 19 MSU .8924 -.009
83 22 IND .8901 +.145
70 24 USC .8865 +.111
118 29 MICH .8772 +.240
37 32 NW .8728 +.014
105 33 RUT .8720 +.192
41 34 OSU .8710 +.017
25 37 WIS .8644 -.025
26 38 NEB .8627 -.026
68 46 MD .8503 +.072
59 48 WASH .8479 +.042
52 49 ORE .8465 +.020
54 50 IOWA .8429 +.021
13 60 ILL .8228 -.102
77 70 MN .8129 +.056
75 97 PSU .7235 -.039
Click to expand...
This made me think about how each team did vs. their preseason rank last year, and Torvik has the "T-rank time machine" that allows you to do that. 11 out of 18 were worse than expected, some significantly worse. It matches my perception about Woodson's ability to actually coach...

Team/Preseason rank/Final rank/delta
Purdue 1 3 -2
MSU 7 18 -11
USC 9 70 -61
UCLA 27 88 -61
Ill 28 13 +15
Wis 31 25 +6
MD 32 68 -36
Ore 33 52 -19
Ind 35 83 -48
NW 38 37 -1
OSU 40 41 -1
Iowa 44 54 -10
Neb 45 26 +19
Rut 52 105 -53
Mich 58 118 -60
Wash 68 59 +9
MN 121 77 +44
PSU 160 75 +85
 

formerlybis said:
This made me think about how each team did vs. their preseason rank last year, and Torvik has the "T-rank time machine" that allows you to do that. 11 out of 18 were worse than expected, some significantly worse. It matches my perception about Woodson's ability to actually coach...

Team/Preseason rank/Final rank/delta
Purdue 1 3 -2
MSU 7 18 -11
USC 9 70 -61
UCLA 27 88 -61
Ill 28 13 +15
Wis 31 25 +6
MD 32 68 -36
Ore 33 52 -19
Ind 35 83 -48
NW 38 37 -1
OSU 40 41 -1
Iowa 44 54 -10
Neb 45 26 +19
Rut 52 105 -53
Mich 58 118 -60
Wash 68 59 +9
MN 121 77 +44
PSU 160 75 +85
Click to expand...
Exactly, and this should exemplify how little projections matter before the ball touches the court. Granted, injuries and off-court issues contribute to a team's success or failure. Other than projecting the high elite teams, its a crapshoot with "surprises" in both directions every single year.
 

SplitDecision said:
During this dead period before summer practices start, here are the Torvik TRank Projections (based on analytics of roster composition) for each P5 conference. Clearly the SEC and BIG TEN project as the best conferences from top to bottom. However, if you look at only the top 10 teams in each conference..., nothing changes...

SEC
Average rank entire conference 38
Rank top 10 teams 25

Big Ten
Ave. rank entire conference 39
Rank top 10 teams 25

Big 12
Ave rank entire conference 50
Rank top 10 teams 30

Big East
Ave rank entire conference 54
Rank top 10 teams 47

ACC
Ave rank entire conference 70
Rank top 10 teams 44

The SEC has all16 teams in the top 68 ranking, while the Big Ten has 17 in top 68. The B12 currently owns the top 3 teams in TRank (Houston-1, Iowa St.-2, Kansas-3) but the falloff after the top 5 is sharp. The ACC is clearly the disappointment with only Duke (5) and UNC (8) in upper echelon, Pitt (26) third in conf. Big East top five teams strong (Creighton-6, UConn-7, SJ-15, Xav-17, Marq-18) before the falloff bottom six.

We all fully expect the standings to look entirely different in January, but it should be interesting to revisit and see how much coaching and team chemistry matter in the standings/rank vs. personnel thrown together on a team. MN sits at #64 rank currently.

Big Ten TRank
10 PUR
11 UCLA
20 MSU
21 IND
23 USC
28 MICH
32 NW
33 RUT
34 OSU
37 WIS
38 NEB
44 MD
46 ORE
52 WASH
53 IOWA
60 ILL
64 MN
94 PSU
Click to expand...
Absolutely misses the increasing force of the Big East. Schools that have only one revenue generating sport are going to continue to improve as NIL $ are funneled into a single sport with only 12 or so athletes on the roster.
 



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